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Reality Check: Hamilton's unprecedented heights

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I generally don't play the sell-high game. I don't think it works.

Usually, the player in question is some early-season waiver claim who has performed well so far but who nobody, including yourself, entirely trusts -- Mike Aviles, for instance -- so usually, the other owner recognizes exactly what you're doing and, not wanting to be the one who "falls for it," counters with an offer so far on the other end of the spectrum that you're better off just sticking with the overachiever and hoping for the best.

So instead of an honest conversation between two owners trying to meet halfway, the entire negotiation process devolves into a bunch of mind games and ego checks, with each owner trying to prove to the other who "knows" the most.

Give me a break.

On the other hand, when the player in question is a high-upside type off to an unusually hot start -- Adam Jones, let's say -- you risk missing out on a genuine breakthrough by trading him. You may think you're selling high on him, but if that's your one and only incentive for making the deal -- and not to fill a need or to acquire another player who you think could deliver those same numbers -- it has a pretty good chance of backfiring.

For those reasons and more, I generally ignore the conventional wisdom of selling high, convinced that the supposed no-brainer strategy is actually more of a brain strain than it's worth.

But every once in a while, just the right player gets off to just the right kind of start that you'd be crazy not to see what you could get for him.

And this year, that player is Josh Hamilton.

Surely you've heard the stories by now. The four homers in one game. The nine homers in one week. The 18 homers in 32 games. The Roy Hobbs comparisons. The Barry Bonds comparisons. The "Hambino" t-shirts. At the height of Hamilton hysteria, only the Babe himself can compare.

And for good reason. After this week's exploits, Hamilton is now far and away the No. 1 hitter in standard Head-to-Head leagues, by a good 32.5 points over the previously untouchable Matt Kemp. Yes, after his relatively disappointing follow-up to his 2010 MVP season, this storybook chapter has the storybook superstar once again rated among the best of the best.

But no player is this good -- not in the post-steroids era -- and Hamilton in particular has one obvious drawback that makes him all but certain to disappoint going forward.

He can't stay healthy.

Only once in his career has he played as many as 135 games -- and that was back when he was just entering his prime at age 27, not exiting it at age 31. During the three seasons in between, he averaged 114.3 games, which translates to about two-thirds of a season. And even in his "healthier" years, his efforts to play through minor aches and pains helped keep his power numbers in check. For all of his accomplishments, for all of his talent readily on display during batting practice and streaks like this one, his career high in homers is only 32. He's already more than halfway there.

That's not to say he can't set a career high this year. In fact, considering his head start, he probably will. But for him to hit 50-plus homers, as some people are now speculating he will, he'll need to both sustain a previously unsustainable pace and attain a previously unattainable measure of durability.

Most Traded Players (as of 5/14)
Player # of trades
1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels 789
2. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants 478
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees 429
4. Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins 415
5. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals 390
6. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers 361
7. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals 357
8. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers 353
9. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies 353
10. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox 339

At an age when neither is all that common, even one would be miraculous. Two would basically be Mary Poppins come to life.

Still, you'll find some people willing to overlook history and buy that the storybook player has gone full-fledged fairy tale, either because of his all-too-apparent talent or because he's playing for a contract.

That's right, the "contract year theory" -- the idea that a player steps up his production during his walk year -- comes into play here. Hey, some people buy into that sort of thing, and the ones who do are no doubt shouting Hamilton's name from the rooftops right now. But while impending free agency may provide a healthy incentive for players who don't normally go all-out, what good could it do for one who's already as driven as Hamilton? If anything, playing harder will put him even more in harm's way.

Face it: You're better off trading him. He's a great player destined to finish with great numbers, but if track record means anything to you, you have to recognize that you've already drained him of the best he has to offer this season. Your best bet now would be to double your return by flipping him for a player with more numbers left in the tank.

To get a sense of what exactly that looks like, let's review some of the most recent trades made on CBSSports.com.

Scenario 1: Josh Hamilton for Miguel Cabrera

I like this one. Cabrera entered this season as the top player in Fantasy and has in no way eliminated himself from that discussion so far. His numbers are consistently spectacular, and he has no known injury concerns. And unlike Hamilton, he's not off to an unsustainably hot start.

Scenario 2: Josh Hamilton for Albert Pujols

This one might not be the best example of selling high on Hamilton because it's also an attempted buy low on Pujols. The point of trading a known injury risk while his value is at its highest is to get safer, more assured production in return. Pujols, as good as we know he can be, is less than a sure thing right now, so while this deal isn't a bad one, it's hardly the dream scenario.

Scenario 3: Josh Hamilton for Justin Verlander, Jon Lester

Normally, I wouldn't give up a top hitter for a top pitcher, but I like the rationale here. Verlander is arguably the best starting pitcher in Fantasy, and Lester is a potential ace in his own right. Two studs for the price of one: That's exactly the type of deal you should hope to get as a Hamilton owner.

Scenario 4: Josh Hamilton for Starlin Castro, Bryce Harper

Unfortunately, the Harper owner did a better job of selling high here, getting an elite hitter without giving one up in return. Apparently, Harper hype still trumps Hamilton hype in some leagues. Unless you're playing for three years from now, you shouldn't fall for such ploys.

Scenario 5: Josh Hamilton, Rafael Furcal for Prince Fielder, Curtis Granderson

Yes. Yes. I like this deal not only because it returns two hitters even more likely than Hamilton to perform at a first-round level from here on out, but because it makes use of another sell-high candidate in Furcal. Like Hamilton, he's a known injury risk whose hot start will cause some Fantasy owners to have temporary amnesia, focusing more on what he's already done that what he's likely to do.

So who else fits that description? Well, both Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran are performing like they did 10 years ago, which seems unlikely to last. Stephen Strasburg might qualify as a sell-high candidate if you trust the Nationals to limit his innings in the second half, but that's hardly assured.

And you'd be stretching the definition in each of those cases anyway. The bottom line is no offer would bowl people over the way a Hamilton offer would right now. If you own Hamilton in Fantasy, you're in a rare position to ask people to overpay and know that most would be happy to do it.

In the now ... A look at how recent events have impacted certain players' Fantasy value

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Allen Craig, 1B/OF, Cardinals: Since returning from offseason knee surgery a couple weeks ago, Craig has been the same player who broke out with four homers and a 1.013 OPS last October, only furthering the idea he could be a Fantasy stud if given everyday at-bats. So why does he remain unowned in so many leagues? The at-bats don't seem to be there for him with Lance Berkman back from a calf injury. But in Berkman's return Sunday, the Cardinals made a point to keep the hot-hitting Craig in the lineup, starting him over Matt Holliday in left field and batting him cleanup. Granted, he doesn't figure to unseat Holliday anytime soon, but given his experience at the corner infield spots as well as the outfield, you can bet the Cardinals will get creative with him, much like the Angels have with Mark Trumbo. Craig may not be a true "starter," but he'll get the at-bats to produce like one, making him worth the investment in mixed leagues.

Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays: Drabek was a hot claim off the waiver wire because of a couple nice starts early this season, but since then, his control has evaporated on him, leading to 20 walks in 26 2/3 innings over his last five starts, not to mention a rising ERA. Sound familiar? That's because the exact same thing happened last year, ultimately resulting in his demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he finished with a 7.44 ERA in 15 starts. Whether it's a confidence issue or genuine wildness, we've seen Drabek go down this road before, and it doesn't end well. If you're one of the Fantasy owners still clinging to him in 50 percent of leagues, understand he's not the only high-upside option out there and make a move for a James McDonald or Jarrod Parker instead.

Jeff Samardzija, SP/RP, Cubs: Somewhere along the line, Samardzija developed a reputation for being an unreliable Fantasy option. OK, so his second and third starts, when he gave up 10 earned runs on 18 hits, likely have something to do with that. But since then he's been lights out, bringing the tally to two bad starts vs. five good ones, with four of them bordering on spectacular. He's a former top prospect who throws 96 miles per hour, has no obvious control issues and can pitch into the seventh and eighth innings. And oh yeah, he's eligible at relief pitcher. This really isn't so difficult. If you own Samardzija, he's a fixture in your starting rotation, and if not, check to make sure the person who does own him properly appreciates him.

Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers: Though considered a raw prospect coming up through the minors, Gordon seemed to overcome that label by hitting .372 last September and following it up with an impressive spring training. Unfortunately, his early-season struggles have him back to square one. It's not just the poor batting average. His strikeout rate is inexcusable for a slap hitter, he doesn't get on base, and though he's stolen 12 bases, he's also been caught five times. If the Dodgers can't trust him on the base paths, they'll no longer give him such freedom to run, which would all but ruin his Fantasy appeal since he doesn't do anything else well. In category leagues, you might have to stick with him just because prolific base-stealers are in short supply, but in points leagues, let him be someone else's headache.

James McDonald, SP, Pirates: A former top prospect in the Dodgers organization, McDonald has shown flashes of potential since joining the Pirates, most notably with his strikeout rate. But we might be witnessing a breakthrough season for the 27-year-old right-hander. In a recent interview with Fantasy Baseball 360 on CBSSports.com, Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage said the coaching staff has stressed to McDonald the importance of pitching deeper into games by limiting walks and throwing quality strikes, and so far, he seems to be getting the message, pitching at least seven innings in three of his last four starts after doing so in only two of his 31 starts last season. His numbers during that four-start stretch: a 1.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. At 50 percent, McDonald is criminally underowned.

Down the line ... A brief update on some of the minor-leaguers who have caught the attention of Fantasy owners

Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays: Gose is one of those prospects whose production has never quite measured up to the talent, but after a slow start at Triple-A Las Vegas, he's finally beginning to show why the scouts think so highly of him, batting .333 (15 for 45) with three home runs and six stolen bases (in six opportunities) this month. His overall numbers are still less than enticing, but with the Blue Jays moving him aggressively up the ladder, his promotion could come sooner than most people think. Given his upside as a power-speed threat, he deserves more attention in long-term keeper leagues.

Wil Myers, OF, Royals: Some top prospects get held up in the minors for so long that by the time they finally get the call, they're owned in 40 percent of Fantasy leagues. Others arrive so suddenly that nobody even thought to act until they're standing in the batter's box. The way Myers is going at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, batting .328 with 11 homers and a 1.091 OPS, he may fit into the latter category. Granted, he has yet to play above Double-A, but he has enough experience there that his time at Triple-A might just be a layover. Of course, the Royals would need to lose faith in Jeff Francoeur for that to happen, but the way he's going, it wouldn't be so far-fetched. It's not like they'd be the first team to do so.

Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks: Eaton's .318 batting average, .434 on-base percentage, 10 homers and 34 steals were easy enough to dismiss last year. After all, he spent most of the season at Class A, where the competition isn't exactly up to snuff. But after opening 2012 at Double-A, he's since moved up to Triple-A Reno, where he's hitting .410 with a 1.013 OPS and seven steals in 105 at-bats. Hard to say he's not a full-fledged prospect now. The Diamondbacks don't have any openings in their outfield, especially with Chris Young set to return from a shoulder injury, but at age 23, Eaton figures to make his debut sometime this season. If his skill set translates, he'll be a Shane Victorino-like contributor.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Rays pitcher Belisario out at least two weeks with fractured shoulder
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:56 am ET) Rays pitcher Ronald Belisario is expected to miss at least two weeks with a fractured left shoulder, reports the Tampa Bay Times. Belisario was involved in an accident before he reported to camp and has been seen with his arm in a sling.

Belisario posted a 4-8 record with eight saves in 2014 with a 5.56 ERA in 66 1/3 innings pitched.


Yankees' Garrett Jones ready for position battle with Alex Rodriguez
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:51 am ET) New Yankees infielder Garrett Jones knows third base currently belongs to Alex Rodriguez. However, the 33-year-old is envisioning a scenario where he and A-Rod are both able to play equally throughout the season.

"That's what it comes down to," Jones said to NJ.com. "When he's getting his opportunity, he'll do his thing. And when I'm getting my opportunity, I'm going to do what I do. In a perfect world, we're both swinging the beat well and we're both in their on a regular basis."

Jones struggled to hit the ball well in 2014, hitting .246 with 15 homeruns and 53 RBI.

"It can mess with you," Jones said. "As a hitter, do I need to do extra? Do I need to change my swing? Do I not have as much power as I used to? A lot of things are going through your head. You try to not let it bother you but for a guy that's supposed to be driving the ball and having home runs, it's part of my game. ... I was trying to pull everything and it turned getting around too much on the ball and I just lost. I was getting pounded (with) sinkers away and I lost that approach to drive the ball to left-center."


Brewers' Khris Davis to work on being a patient hitter in 2015
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Brewers outfielder Khris Davis realizes he didn't show patience at the plate last year in his first full major-league season, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"I built a reputation in the organization of being a patient hitter," Davis said. "I felt like I wasn't a patient hitter at all last year. I was a little eager, wanting to please too much, too early. I found out I'm human."

Davis drew just 32 walks in 549 plate appearances while posting a .299 OBP in 2014, a number far away from his career .392 OBP in the minors.

"He was different last year," manager Ron Roenicke said. "Everybody goes through different phases. Guys change. (His walk total) was too low. He's a guy I think should be fairly patient. He sees pitches well. When he starts getting anxious, he becomes more aggressive and chases more. He realizes it, which is the first step. If you don't realize it and don't listen to other people when they tell you that, then you have issues. You have to have good self-awareness to be a good player. Sometimes these players don't have good self-awareness. But if they had better self-awareness they'd be a better player."

Davis is determined to fulfill the potential that caused the organization to move Ryan Braun to right field before the 2014 season and plug Davis into the regular left-field role.

"I can't thank them enough for having patience with me," Davis said. "I'm going to work it out. When you get here, you want to stay. That's the toughest part at first. I don't think this league has seen the best of me yet. I'm ready to pull that out and prove it day by day. I learned so many lessons there are too many to name."

Davis hit .244/.299/.457 with 22 home runs and 69 RBI in 501 at-bats.


Indians' Francona keeping a close eye on Giovanny Urshela
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Indians manager Terry Francona has been keeping a close eye on third-base prospect Giovanny Urshela, who was only recently cleared for a full range of activities after tweaking his knee during winter ball, MLB.com reports.

"He has a tremendous reputation of being a really good defender," Francona said. "I think I've been more wanting to watch his gait, just to make sure he's not favoring that leg. He promised us that, if he was, he'd let us know, but I also know he's a young kid in his first major-league camp."

Urshela suffered the injury on Nov. 15 and has rehabbed the injured knee at the team's spring-training facility in Goodyear, Ariz.

"He's worked really hard to get himself to where he can go through a normal spring," said Indians' director of player development Carter Hawkins. "We're very excited about the spot he's in right now, given the possible outcomes of the injury."

Urshela saw his first action at the Triple-A level in 2014, hitting .276/.331/.473 with 13 home runs and 65 RBI in 395 at-bats with Columbus.


Reds' Brennan Boesch to see time at first base this spring
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Reds manager Bryan Price indicated Friday that outfielder Brennan Boesch would see time at all three outfield spots as well as at first base as he competes for a roster spot this spring, MLB.com reports.

"We already know he's a terrific player," Price said of Boesch, who has never played first base professionally. "He kind of got banged up and lost his way a little bit, but I think he feels -- and we feel -- that he's back on top of his game, and maybe his best days are ahead of him."

Boesch said he doesn't see the battle for a reserve outfield role as a "competition."

"I only care about the competition against the pitcher, and that's really as basic as I keep it," Boesch said. "You aren't competing against other players. We're all on the same side here. We're all wearing Red jerseys. Let the chips fall where they may."

Boesch struggled in limited time with the Angels in 2014 but hit .332/.381/.636 with 25 home runs, 85 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 374 at-bats with Triple-A Salt Lake.


Dodgers' Mattingly: Turner has 'put a lot of time in and it shows'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Dodgers infielder Justin Turner earned a nonroster invitation to the team's camp last year and ended up leading the team in batting average, and he's been working on his body like a fiend over the winter, MLB.com reports.

"Going into last year, we felt if he played every day, he'd get in trouble, and we found that out, but this year maybe he can handle more," manager Don Mattingly said Friday. "He's really been diligent about his work, been at Dodger Stadium almost daily. He's put a lot of time in and it shows."

Turner credited strength-and-conditioning coach Brandon McDaniel for his workout success.

"Brandon did everything. He's been a one-man wrecking crew," said Turner. "He and his family deserve the credit. I've been able to establish a routine and train consistently. Before I signed a year ago, I was on my own, going to 24 Hour Fitness, had to coordinate everything myself."

Turner added that he lost 18 pounds this winter through a healthier diet. Mattingly said that he intends to use the infielder at the corner-infield positions and also potentially up the middle.


Nationals' Matt Skole: 'I'm eating healthy and working hard'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Nationals first baseman Matt Skole missed most of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and struggled at the plate in 2014 but showed up to camp in better shape and will look to rebound in 2015, MLB.com reports.

"This offseason, I had a little more time to work on my body," Skole said. "I really got after it in the weight room. I ate right. I ate healthy. I think that was probably the biggest difference for me. I'm about the same weight as I was. I just leaned out a little bit. I'm eating healthy and working hard."

Skole worked with hitting coordinator Troy Gingrich for a month after the season and learned to keep his hands up in order to hit the ball consistently after having his hands too low during his down 2014 season.

"After taking a year off, it was more difficult than I thought it would be," the left-handed-swinging Skole said. "But coming back, I turned some corners, made some strides as far as getting to know myself as a player and know the things I need to fix. I think everything I did last year was a stepping stone for this year."

Skole hit .241/.352/.399 with 14 home runs and 68 RBI in 461 at-bats with Double-A Harrisburg last season.


Report: Dodgers sign center fielder Travis Witherspoon
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) The Dodgers signed center fielder Travis Witherspoon to their organization, according to a report from Baseball America

Witherspoon has previously been in the Angels and Mariners organizations. In six years of minor-league ball, Witherspoon has posted a career batting average of .252 with 68 home runs. He hit a minor-league single-season best 15 home runs in 2014 with the Mariners' Single-A affiliate High Desert Mavericks. 


Phillies' Buchanan 'working on being a complete pitcher'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Phillies pitcher David Buchanan is "working on being a complete pitcher," manager Ryan Sandberg said, per the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The team's coaches spoke with Buchanan in the fall about command and pitch sequencing, executing bunts and thwarting would-be base-stealers, and Sandberg noted while examining the players that arrived early that the pitcher had taken the advice to heart.

"My biggest goal [this spring] is to show our front office and our coaches that I can throw the ball over the plate," Buchanan said. "That's one thing I had success with last year. I wasn't walking guys. I was throwing strikes, and that's what I'm known for. That's why I succeeded in the minor leagues; I was throwing strikes. So that's what I want to do this spring training, is continue to do that, pound the zone, force early contact and keep the ball on the ground."

Buchanan is scheduled to pitch the team's Grapefruit League opener Tuesday against the Yankees.


Giants' Bochy: Hunter Strickland 'needs to get a little smarter'
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2/27/2015) Giants pitcher Hunter Strickland is ready to learn from his mistakes from the tail end of his 2014 season.

Starting strong once he was called up from Double-A Richmond, Strickland gave up six home runs in the postseason. Giants manager Bruce Bochy said the remedy to put Strickland back on track is simple. 

"He needs to get a little smarter," Bochy said, per MLB.com.  

Strickland will be competing for a spot in the bullpen during spring training. His fastball is a strength, though it's a matter of his command improving on the mound. 

"The failures are what make guys better, I feel like," Strickland said. "I feel like they made me better. Just being in tune with yourself and knowing who you are and what you've got to do. In this game, you're not going to make it too far if you don't have confidence. If you don't believe in yourself, who else is going to believe in you?"


 
 
 
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