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Reality Check: Hamilton's unprecedented heights

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I generally don't play the sell-high game. I don't think it works.

Usually, the player in question is some early-season waiver claim who has performed well so far but who nobody, including yourself, entirely trusts -- Mike Aviles, for instance -- so usually, the other owner recognizes exactly what you're doing and, not wanting to be the one who "falls for it," counters with an offer so far on the other end of the spectrum that you're better off just sticking with the overachiever and hoping for the best.

So instead of an honest conversation between two owners trying to meet halfway, the entire negotiation process devolves into a bunch of mind games and ego checks, with each owner trying to prove to the other who "knows" the most.

Give me a break.

On the other hand, when the player in question is a high-upside type off to an unusually hot start -- Adam Jones, let's say -- you risk missing out on a genuine breakthrough by trading him. You may think you're selling high on him, but if that's your one and only incentive for making the deal -- and not to fill a need or to acquire another player who you think could deliver those same numbers -- it has a pretty good chance of backfiring.

For those reasons and more, I generally ignore the conventional wisdom of selling high, convinced that the supposed no-brainer strategy is actually more of a brain strain than it's worth.

But every once in a while, just the right player gets off to just the right kind of start that you'd be crazy not to see what you could get for him.

And this year, that player is Josh Hamilton.

Surely you've heard the stories by now. The four homers in one game. The nine homers in one week. The 18 homers in 32 games. The Roy Hobbs comparisons. The Barry Bonds comparisons. The "Hambino" t-shirts. At the height of Hamilton hysteria, only the Babe himself can compare.

And for good reason. After this week's exploits, Hamilton is now far and away the No. 1 hitter in standard Head-to-Head leagues, by a good 32.5 points over the previously untouchable Matt Kemp. Yes, after his relatively disappointing follow-up to his 2010 MVP season, this storybook chapter has the storybook superstar once again rated among the best of the best.

But no player is this good -- not in the post-steroids era -- and Hamilton in particular has one obvious drawback that makes him all but certain to disappoint going forward.

He can't stay healthy.

Only once in his career has he played as many as 135 games -- and that was back when he was just entering his prime at age 27, not exiting it at age 31. During the three seasons in between, he averaged 114.3 games, which translates to about two-thirds of a season. And even in his "healthier" years, his efforts to play through minor aches and pains helped keep his power numbers in check. For all of his accomplishments, for all of his talent readily on display during batting practice and streaks like this one, his career high in homers is only 32. He's already more than halfway there.

That's not to say he can't set a career high this year. In fact, considering his head start, he probably will. But for him to hit 50-plus homers, as some people are now speculating he will, he'll need to both sustain a previously unsustainable pace and attain a previously unattainable measure of durability.

Most Traded Players (as of 5/14)
Player # of trades
1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels 789
2. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants 478
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees 429
4. Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins 415
5. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals 390
6. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers 361
7. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals 357
8. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers 353
9. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies 353
10. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox 339

At an age when neither is all that common, even one would be miraculous. Two would basically be Mary Poppins come to life.

Still, you'll find some people willing to overlook history and buy that the storybook player has gone full-fledged fairy tale, either because of his all-too-apparent talent or because he's playing for a contract.

That's right, the "contract year theory" -- the idea that a player steps up his production during his walk year -- comes into play here. Hey, some people buy into that sort of thing, and the ones who do are no doubt shouting Hamilton's name from the rooftops right now. But while impending free agency may provide a healthy incentive for players who don't normally go all-out, what good could it do for one who's already as driven as Hamilton? If anything, playing harder will put him even more in harm's way.

Face it: You're better off trading him. He's a great player destined to finish with great numbers, but if track record means anything to you, you have to recognize that you've already drained him of the best he has to offer this season. Your best bet now would be to double your return by flipping him for a player with more numbers left in the tank.

To get a sense of what exactly that looks like, let's review some of the most recent trades made on CBSSports.com.

Scenario 1: Josh Hamilton for Miguel Cabrera

I like this one. Cabrera entered this season as the top player in Fantasy and has in no way eliminated himself from that discussion so far. His numbers are consistently spectacular, and he has no known injury concerns. And unlike Hamilton, he's not off to an unsustainably hot start.

Scenario 2: Josh Hamilton for Albert Pujols

This one might not be the best example of selling high on Hamilton because it's also an attempted buy low on Pujols. The point of trading a known injury risk while his value is at its highest is to get safer, more assured production in return. Pujols, as good as we know he can be, is less than a sure thing right now, so while this deal isn't a bad one, it's hardly the dream scenario.

Scenario 3: Josh Hamilton for Justin Verlander, Jon Lester

Normally, I wouldn't give up a top hitter for a top pitcher, but I like the rationale here. Verlander is arguably the best starting pitcher in Fantasy, and Lester is a potential ace in his own right. Two studs for the price of one: That's exactly the type of deal you should hope to get as a Hamilton owner.

Scenario 4: Josh Hamilton for Starlin Castro, Bryce Harper

Unfortunately, the Harper owner did a better job of selling high here, getting an elite hitter without giving one up in return. Apparently, Harper hype still trumps Hamilton hype in some leagues. Unless you're playing for three years from now, you shouldn't fall for such ploys.

Scenario 5: Josh Hamilton, Rafael Furcal for Prince Fielder, Curtis Granderson

Yes. Yes. I like this deal not only because it returns two hitters even more likely than Hamilton to perform at a first-round level from here on out, but because it makes use of another sell-high candidate in Furcal. Like Hamilton, he's a known injury risk whose hot start will cause some Fantasy owners to have temporary amnesia, focusing more on what he's already done that what he's likely to do.

So who else fits that description? Well, both Derek Jeter and Carlos Beltran are performing like they did 10 years ago, which seems unlikely to last. Stephen Strasburg might qualify as a sell-high candidate if you trust the Nationals to limit his innings in the second half, but that's hardly assured.

And you'd be stretching the definition in each of those cases anyway. The bottom line is no offer would bowl people over the way a Hamilton offer would right now. If you own Hamilton in Fantasy, you're in a rare position to ask people to overpay and know that most would be happy to do it.

In the now ... A look at how recent events have impacted certain players' Fantasy value

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Allen Craig, 1B/OF, Cardinals: Since returning from offseason knee surgery a couple weeks ago, Craig has been the same player who broke out with four homers and a 1.013 OPS last October, only furthering the idea he could be a Fantasy stud if given everyday at-bats. So why does he remain unowned in so many leagues? The at-bats don't seem to be there for him with Lance Berkman back from a calf injury. But in Berkman's return Sunday, the Cardinals made a point to keep the hot-hitting Craig in the lineup, starting him over Matt Holliday in left field and batting him cleanup. Granted, he doesn't figure to unseat Holliday anytime soon, but given his experience at the corner infield spots as well as the outfield, you can bet the Cardinals will get creative with him, much like the Angels have with Mark Trumbo. Craig may not be a true "starter," but he'll get the at-bats to produce like one, making him worth the investment in mixed leagues.

Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays: Drabek was a hot claim off the waiver wire because of a couple nice starts early this season, but since then, his control has evaporated on him, leading to 20 walks in 26 2/3 innings over his last five starts, not to mention a rising ERA. Sound familiar? That's because the exact same thing happened last year, ultimately resulting in his demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he finished with a 7.44 ERA in 15 starts. Whether it's a confidence issue or genuine wildness, we've seen Drabek go down this road before, and it doesn't end well. If you're one of the Fantasy owners still clinging to him in 50 percent of leagues, understand he's not the only high-upside option out there and make a move for a James McDonald or Jarrod Parker instead.

Jeff Samardzija, SP/RP, Cubs: Somewhere along the line, Samardzija developed a reputation for being an unreliable Fantasy option. OK, so his second and third starts, when he gave up 10 earned runs on 18 hits, likely have something to do with that. But since then he's been lights out, bringing the tally to two bad starts vs. five good ones, with four of them bordering on spectacular. He's a former top prospect who throws 96 miles per hour, has no obvious control issues and can pitch into the seventh and eighth innings. And oh yeah, he's eligible at relief pitcher. This really isn't so difficult. If you own Samardzija, he's a fixture in your starting rotation, and if not, check to make sure the person who does own him properly appreciates him.

Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers: Though considered a raw prospect coming up through the minors, Gordon seemed to overcome that label by hitting .372 last September and following it up with an impressive spring training. Unfortunately, his early-season struggles have him back to square one. It's not just the poor batting average. His strikeout rate is inexcusable for a slap hitter, he doesn't get on base, and though he's stolen 12 bases, he's also been caught five times. If the Dodgers can't trust him on the base paths, they'll no longer give him such freedom to run, which would all but ruin his Fantasy appeal since he doesn't do anything else well. In category leagues, you might have to stick with him just because prolific base-stealers are in short supply, but in points leagues, let him be someone else's headache.

James McDonald, SP, Pirates: A former top prospect in the Dodgers organization, McDonald has shown flashes of potential since joining the Pirates, most notably with his strikeout rate. But we might be witnessing a breakthrough season for the 27-year-old right-hander. In a recent interview with Fantasy Baseball 360 on CBSSports.com, Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage said the coaching staff has stressed to McDonald the importance of pitching deeper into games by limiting walks and throwing quality strikes, and so far, he seems to be getting the message, pitching at least seven innings in three of his last four starts after doing so in only two of his 31 starts last season. His numbers during that four-start stretch: a 1.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. At 50 percent, McDonald is criminally underowned.

Down the line ... A brief update on some of the minor-leaguers who have caught the attention of Fantasy owners

Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays: Gose is one of those prospects whose production has never quite measured up to the talent, but after a slow start at Triple-A Las Vegas, he's finally beginning to show why the scouts think so highly of him, batting .333 (15 for 45) with three home runs and six stolen bases (in six opportunities) this month. His overall numbers are still less than enticing, but with the Blue Jays moving him aggressively up the ladder, his promotion could come sooner than most people think. Given his upside as a power-speed threat, he deserves more attention in long-term keeper leagues.

Wil Myers, OF, Royals: Some top prospects get held up in the minors for so long that by the time they finally get the call, they're owned in 40 percent of Fantasy leagues. Others arrive so suddenly that nobody even thought to act until they're standing in the batter's box. The way Myers is going at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, batting .328 with 11 homers and a 1.091 OPS, he may fit into the latter category. Granted, he has yet to play above Double-A, but he has enough experience there that his time at Triple-A might just be a layover. Of course, the Royals would need to lose faith in Jeff Francoeur for that to happen, but the way he's going, it wouldn't be so far-fetched. It's not like they'd be the first team to do so.

Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks: Eaton's .318 batting average, .434 on-base percentage, 10 homers and 34 steals were easy enough to dismiss last year. After all, he spent most of the season at Class A, where the competition isn't exactly up to snuff. But after opening 2012 at Double-A, he's since moved up to Triple-A Reno, where he's hitting .410 with a 1.013 OPS and seven steals in 105 at-bats. Hard to say he's not a full-fledged prospect now. The Diamondbacks don't have any openings in their outfield, especially with Chris Young set to return from a shoulder injury, but at age 23, Eaton figures to make his debut sometime this season. If his skill set translates, he'll be a Shane Victorino-like contributor.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Justin Ruggiano set to see specialist
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:31 am ET) Cubs outfielder Justin Ruggiano will visit with a specialist to determine the exact nature of the ankle injury that landed him on the disabled list Wednesday, MLB.com reports.

Ruggiano had been out for nearly a week before the team opted to put him on the DL, and at this point no timetable for a potential return is known.  


Masahiro Tanaka tossed 49 pitches in simulated game
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:28 am ET) Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka was able to throw his splitter "worry-free" in a simulated game Thursday, reports MLB.com.

Tanaka, who is trying to work his way back from a partially torn UCL, threw 49 pitches and reported no issues Thursday. He felt "normal" but is still trying to find his command, though infielder Brendan Ryan thought he looked pretty close to ready after facing him during the session.

"He could get outs now on stuff alone," Ryan said.

Tanaka is still working on getting back to full strength, but he still needs to throw at least 75 pitches in a session before the team considers bringing him off the DL. At this point, it seems unlikely he will go on a rehab assignment in the minors. 


Luke Putkonen beginning rehab assignment Thursday
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:20 am ET) Tigers pitcher Luke Putkonen is expected to take his recovery from elbow surgery out on rehab assignment Thursday, the team announced. Putkonene will begin his assignment for Class A West Michigan, though it is not clear how long he is expected to stay on assignment at this point. 

Brewers claim Justin Morneau, cannot work out deal
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:07 am ET) The Brewers won a waiver claim on Rockies first baseman Justin Morneau, but were unable to work out a trade for him, reports CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman Thursday.

The details of the Brewers' offer for Morneau are not known, but the Rockies evidently did not consider it worth of Morneau's services. He is still under contract for next season and is providing excellent value, leading the National league with a .317 average while adding 14 home runs, 69 RBI and an .857 OPS.

Morneau will be paid $6.75 million in 2015, and his contract has a mutual option for $9 million for 2016. 


Carl Crawford producing well in part-time role
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(11:00 am ET) Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford hit safely for the sixth time in eight games Wednesday against the Diamondbacks, as he continues to find ways to contribute.

Crawford, who entered the 3-1 win as a reserve, went 1 for 2 in his two trips to the plate. He has been mostly used as a platoon hitter recently, and it has helped his production, as Crawford is 10 for 23 with four stolen bases and eight runs scored over his last eight games. 


Jordan Schafer contributing for Twins
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:56 am ET) Twins outfielder Jordan Schafer continues to produce since joining the team, as he extended his heating streak to seven games in a 6-1 loss to the Royals Wednesday.

Schafer went 1 for 3 with a stolen base Wednesday, raising his average since joining the Twins to .305 in 59 at-bats. He has appeared in all but two games since, and has a .397 on-base percentage with 10 runs scored and nine stolen bases in 10 tries.  


Gordon Beckham goes deep, drives in two in win
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:44 am ET) The Angels got a boost from newly acquired infielder Gordon Beckham Wednesday, in a 6-1 win over the Marlins.

Beckham slugged a solo home run in the fourth inning and added an RBI groundout in the eighth, ultimately finishing the game 2 for 4 with two RBI and two runs scored.  

Beckham had been hitless in his previous seven at-bats since joining the Angels, and is hitting just .219/.262/.339 in 401 at-bats overall. 


Drew Pomeranz better for tomorrow than today
by Scott White | Senior Fantasy Writer
(10:41 am ET) If you picked up Drew Pomeranz for his spot start Wednesday, he did exactly what you hoped he would. OK, so he fell short of a quality start, but for the 5 1/3 innings he pitched, he looked like the resurgent prospect who made eight starts for the Athletics in May and June -- the one who never should have lost his rotation spot in the first place -- allowing one unearned run on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.

Now if only he'd get the chance to do it again.

I'd put it at slim to none. The Athletics only gave him this start so they could line up their rotation exactly the way they want it for their upcoming series against the Angels. They don't have an opening for Pomeranz beyond that. Jason Hammel has bounced back after a rocky start with the Athletics, and they'd be crazy to go six-man after working all July to stockpile their rotation with established (not to mention front-line) innings eaters. In redraft leagues, he's probably a waste of time.

But in keeper leagues and particularly dynasty leagues, you may not want to cut him loose just yet. Surely, he has the inside track on a starting job next year with Hammel and Jon Lester destined for free agency. Granted, Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin are due back from Tommy John surgery at some point, but he'll have established himself by then.

And if, either by sticking around or returning when the minor-league season ends in September, Pomeranz makes just one relief appearance before the end of the year, he'll be eligible at relief pitcher to begin 2015.


Mike Zunino punctuates slump with homer
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:39 am ET) Mariners catcher Mike Zunino snapped out of a power drought Wednesday, as he homered for the first time in nearly three weeks in a 12-4 loss to the Rangers.

Zunino had just one hit in the game, a solo home run, as he finished 1 for 4 with two strikeouts. He has just two home runs in the month of August so far, after totaling at least four in each of the previous three.

Zunino has been a pretty all-or-nothing hitting this year, as he carries a .205/.261/.418 line with 19 home runs in 106 games. 


Kyle Seager reaches 20 homers for third straight season
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(10:34 am ET) Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager reached the 20-homer mark for the third straight season Wednesday, during a 12-4 loss to the Rangers.

Seager had just one hit in the game, a solo home run in the ninth inning well after the game was decided. He went 1 for 4 with one RBI as he clubbed his 20th home run of the season.

Seager is now just two homers and five RBI shy of his career-highs, with more than a month left in the season. He is hitting .275/.344/.471 with 81 RBI in 129 games. 


 
 
 
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