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Setting the Trends: King Felix, 2.0?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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In Back to the Future Part II, an old Biff Tannen travels to the past to deliver a copy of the Grays Sports Almanac to himself, in order to help him win a bunch of money gambling and live a more comfortable life.

Most Added Players (as of 5/30)
Player % increase
1. Ernesto Frieri, RP, Angels 30
2. Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers 28
3. A.J. Ellis, C, Dodgers 25
4. Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox 21
5. Homer Bailey, SP, Reds 20
6. Dayan Viciedo, OF, White Sox 19
7. Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals 17
8. Carlos Quentin, OF, Padres 15
9. Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees 14
10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox 14

We often talk about predicting the future in Fantasy, but here's a harsh fact: even if we knew the results of every baseball game this season, it still might be tough to take that information and use it to win a league.

Say, for instance, that we discover Tom Wilhelmsen manages 20 saves on the season. Unless we know which game he started getting the saves, the information could turn out to be useless. Should we start him every game? Should we have picked him up as a Draft Day guess and kept him activated? Wilhelmsen, it might turn out, went nutty in August and set a record in 2012 for saves in a month (20). But if all we knew was that he gets those 20 saves -- and not when -- it could do more harm than good having him sit in our lineups every day.

So what's the point of this sci-fi digression? That situational and split stats matter, to a degree. Hidden beneath 162 games of data are little quirks that can help us divine some Fantasy knowledge. For a pitcher like Ervin Santana, who has massive home/road splits buried beneath his overall numbers, knowing where the good numbers came from could be a tremendous boost for a Fantasy owner, and could help explain why some players are seeing jumps in ownership at otherwise random-looking times during the season.

On to the Roster Trends!

Most Added Highlights

Less than 50, more than 50
Players owned in less than 50% of leagues who should be owned in more than 50%
Player % owned
1. Jordan Schafer, OF, Astros 49
2. Brian Fuentes, RP, Athletics 48
3. A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates 46
4. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks 41
5. Casey Janssen, RP, Blue Jays 36

Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox
Jump in ownership: 20 percent (from 45 percent to 65)
Reason for the jump: Doubront is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA through 10 games and is in the midst of a two-start week.
Why you should join the crowd: Besides getting off to a spectacular start in 2012, Doubront has relief pitcher eligibility in most CBSSports.com formats, allowing owners in H2H points leagues to rack up starting pitcher value from a RP slot. For those owners looking at Doubront as a starter, he's been surprisingly effective so far this year. He has also managed to throw a little over one strikeout per inning.
Devil's Advocate: Doubront's minor league numbers were good, but they didn't indicate anything that would translate to wild success in the majors. Additionally, his 1.36 WHIP suggests that his ERA may currently be a bit low, meaning he could be due for a correction. On top of all that, the Red Sox have Daisuke Matsuzaka and Andrew Bailey coming back from injury soon, which could create a crunch of both a direct (Matsuzaka will require a spot) and indirect (Bailey could push Alfredo Aceves to the rotation, sending Doubront to long relief) nature.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals
Jump in ownership: 14 percent (from 60 percent to 74)
Reason for the jump: Francoeur has four multi-hit games in his last six.
Why you should join the crowd: Blink and you missed Francoeur's batting average rise from .235 (on May 19) to .282 (on the 28th). Of his five home runs on the season, four have come in the last seven games. He even picked up his first steal of the season against the Orioles. Francoeur put up a 20-20 campaign in 2011 and has as many as 29 home runs in a single season.
Devil's Advocate: Those 22 bases he stole last year marked the first time in Francoeur's career that he produced double-digits in the category. And while he has a lifetime batting average of .271, that number has dipped as low as .239 during his career. He's streaky and can be one of the more frustrating players in Fantasy, rotating from extremely cold to extremely hot without warning. So beware. His season may look great in September, but there may be plenty of peaks and valleys along the way.

Thanks, But No Thanks
The five most deactivated healthy players
Player decrease in start %
1. Henry Rodriguez, RP, Nationals 31
2. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins 25
3. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Yankees 24
4. Brandon League, RP, Mariners 24
5. Edinson Volquez, SP, Padres 23

Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
Jump in ownership: 15 percent (from 28 percent to 43)
Reason for the jump: Beckham entered May with a .153 average; as of Tuesday, it sat at .224.
Why you should join the crowd: Beckham, a former first-round pick, has turned his season around in the month of May. He's hit .264, with five home runs and 14 RBI. His OPS jumped .300 points over April, going from .434 to .763. Over the last 14 days, Beckham ranks as the seventh-best second baseman in Fantasy.
Devil's Advocate: Before the recent hot streak, Beckham was experiencing a three-year slide in nearly every offensive category (from 2009 to 2011). His average went from .270 to .252 to .230; His RBI, doubles, OPS, and walk totals all dropped over the three-season span while his at-bats increased. In fact, if the season ended today, his OPS would be only slightly higher than it was last year and his average would be the lowest of his four-season career.

Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers
Jump in ownership: 10 percent and rising (from 29 percent to 39)
Reason for the jump: Oswalt has signed with the Rangers.
Why you should join the crowd: Oswalt isn't really a big mystery. Over 2,154 innings pitched, he has a career 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's a three-time All-Star who has finished in the top five for Cy Young voting on five separate occasions. The only mystery right now is how long it will take him to get in to playing shape (guessing it will be three or four weeks).
Devil's Advocate: Oswalt's career splits at Rangers Ballpark: 2-5, 4.78 EA and 1.44 WHIP in eight starts. Granted, that's playing against the Rangers, not playing with them, but when you run into a pitcher of Oswalt's caliber, you have to look somewhere for the downside to it all.

More than 50, less than 50
Players owned in more than 50% of leagues who should be owned in less than 50%
Player % owned
1. Delmon Young, OF, Tigers 53
2. Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees 54
3. Russell Martin, C, Yankees 56
4. Jake Westbrook, SP, Cardinals 58
5. Trevor Bauer, SP, Diamondbacks 60

Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Mariners
Jump in ownership: Nine percent (from seven percent to 16)
Reason for the jump: Wilhelmsen looks to be the favorite for saves in Seattle with Brandon League being demoted to setup duty.
Why you should join the crowd: Besides being an awesome story -- Wilhelmsen was out of baseball for six years, backpacking around the world and serving as a bartender in Arizona -- he does look like the early favorite to get saves in League's absence. So far this season, he has 30 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings pitched.
Devil's Advocate: Wilhelmsen also has a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Furthermore, League hit a bit of a bump last year and responded by not allowing a run from May 17 to July 5. So while he has a great story (the movie will end with Wilhelmsen pitching in the ALCS with a full count in the bottom of the ninth to Daniel Nava), it's not the most ideal of scenarios: Wilhelmsen has some pretty high ratios, manager Eric Wedge indicated that he would let matchups dictate who comes in for saves, and League could take a week off and come right back into his closer role.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

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Player News
Giants will not start Madison Bumgarner on short rest
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:05 am ET) The Giants will not start Madison Bumgarner on short rest for Game 4.

Manager Bruce Bochy admitted he was considering giving Bumgarner the start prior to Game 3, but changed his mind following the game. Bumgarner has thrown a combined 256 innings between the regular season and the postseason, and there's a chance the team didn't want to push him any further, especially on short rest. San Francisco will throw Ryan Vogelsong, as originally planned.


Royals RP Greg Holland shuts it down Friday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Royals closer Greg Holland did his job Friday against the Giants.

With his team up by one run, Holland was called upon to pick up the save. He had little trouble against San Francisco. Facing the heart of the team's order, Holland induced a flyout and two groundouts against Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence. He threw just eight pitches, five of which were strikes. 


Giants' Michael Morse comes up big as pinch hitter
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Giants outfielder Michael Morse came up big as a pinch hitter Friday against the Royals.

Morse got his opportunity in the sixth inning and didn't disappoint. With a man on first, Morse worked an eight-pitch at-bat against Jeremy Guthrie. After starting out 0-2, Morse was able to work the count full. On the eighth pitch, Morse managed to double down the left field line, plating the team's first run of the contest. Morse was replaced by a pitcher in the top of the seventh.


Royals' Alcides Escobar reaches twice in Game 3
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Royals infielder Alcides Escobar reached base twice Game 3 against the Giants. 

Escobar wound up playing a big role immediately, doubling in his first at-bat. He would come around to score later in the inning, giving the Royals a 1-0 lead. Escobar would strike again in the sixth inning. After a single, Escobar would score from first on an Alex Gordon double. Escobar went on to finish 2 for 4, with two runs scored.


Giants SP Tim Hudson saddled with the loss Game 3
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Giants pitcher Tim Hudson was saddled with the loss Game 3 against the Royals.

Hudson allowed three runs on four hits over 5 2/3 innings. He struck out two and walked one during the outing. Hudson found himself in trouble immediately. After giving up a leadoff double to start the game, Hudson allowed a run on an RBI-single just a few hitters later. He would settle in at that point, tossing four scoreless frames. 

Hudson ran out of gas in the sixth. Alcides Escobar was able to reach on a single, and was driven home on an Alex Gordon double. After picking up a groundout, Hudson left the game. Javier Lopez came on in relief and allowed an RBI-single against Eric Hosmer. The run would be charged to Hudson. 


Giants to go with Ryan Vogelsong in Game 4
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) The Giants will start pitcher Ryan Vogelsong Game 4 against the Royals.

Manager Bruce Bochy was considering starting ace Madison Bumgarner on short rest, but opted against the decision. Vogelsong struggled in his last start, allowing four earned runs over three innings against St. Louis. He'll oppose Jason Vargas. 


Royals' Jeremy Guthrie pulls out a win in Game 3
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie pulled out a win Friday night against the Giants.

Guthrie allowed two runs on four hits over five innings of work. He did not record any strikeouts or walks during the contest. Guthrie gave up plenty of contact during the start, but was helped out by Kansas City's strong defense. He was excellent over the first five frames, not giving up a run. 

Things began to unravel in the sixth inning. After a leadoff single, Guthrie allowed a run-scoring double against Michael Morse. Guthrie was pulled from the game at that point, but was charged with a second run after Morse would come around to score later in the frame. 

The Royals would hold on to the one-run lead over the last couple of innings, giving Guthrie the win. 


Twins prospect Miguel Sano won't play winter ball
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) Twins infielder Miguel Sano won't play winter ball, according to the St. Paul Pioneer-Press

Sano missed most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has not experienced a setback, but "doctors do not want him to play," according to the report. Sano was considered one of the top prospects in the game prior to the 2014 season. 


White Sox OF Michael Taylor decides to become free agent
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) The White Sox have outrighted outfielder Michael Taylor to Triple-A Friday.

Taylor declined the assignment, and will become a free-agent. He hit .250 over 28 at-bats with the major-league club last season. The team now has 37 players on the 40-man roster. 


Giants will consider Madison Bumgarner for Game 4
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/24/2014) The Giants will consider Madison Bumgarner on short rest for Game 4, according to CSN.

As of right now, the team is planning to start Ryan Vogelsong. But if the Giants lose Game 3, there's a chance Bumgarner would get the nod on short rest. Bumgarner allowed one run in the team's Game 1 victory. 


 
 
 
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