Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Setting the Trends: King Felix, 2.0?

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

In Back to the Future Part II, an old Biff Tannen travels to the past to deliver a copy of the Grays Sports Almanac to himself, in order to help him win a bunch of money gambling and live a more comfortable life.

Most Added Players (as of 5/30)
Player % increase
1. Ernesto Frieri, RP, Angels 30
2. Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers 28
3. A.J. Ellis, C, Dodgers 25
4. Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox 21
5. Homer Bailey, SP, Reds 20
6. Dayan Viciedo, OF, White Sox 19
7. Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals 17
8. Carlos Quentin, OF, Padres 15
9. Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees 14
10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox 14

We often talk about predicting the future in Fantasy, but here's a harsh fact: even if we knew the results of every baseball game this season, it still might be tough to take that information and use it to win a league.

Say, for instance, that we discover Tom Wilhelmsen manages 20 saves on the season. Unless we know which game he started getting the saves, the information could turn out to be useless. Should we start him every game? Should we have picked him up as a Draft Day guess and kept him activated? Wilhelmsen, it might turn out, went nutty in August and set a record in 2012 for saves in a month (20). But if all we knew was that he gets those 20 saves -- and not when -- it could do more harm than good having him sit in our lineups every day.

So what's the point of this sci-fi digression? That situational and split stats matter, to a degree. Hidden beneath 162 games of data are little quirks that can help us divine some Fantasy knowledge. For a pitcher like Ervin Santana, who has massive home/road splits buried beneath his overall numbers, knowing where the good numbers came from could be a tremendous boost for a Fantasy owner, and could help explain why some players are seeing jumps in ownership at otherwise random-looking times during the season.

On to the Roster Trends!

Most Added Highlights

Less than 50, more than 50
Players owned in less than 50% of leagues who should be owned in more than 50%
Player % owned
1. Jordan Schafer, OF, Astros 49
2. Brian Fuentes, RP, Athletics 48
3. A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates 46
4. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks 41
5. Casey Janssen, RP, Blue Jays 36

Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox
Jump in ownership: 20 percent (from 45 percent to 65)
Reason for the jump: Doubront is 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA through 10 games and is in the midst of a two-start week.
Why you should join the crowd: Besides getting off to a spectacular start in 2012, Doubront has relief pitcher eligibility in most CBSSports.com formats, allowing owners in H2H points leagues to rack up starting pitcher value from a RP slot. For those owners looking at Doubront as a starter, he's been surprisingly effective so far this year. He has also managed to throw a little over one strikeout per inning.
Devil's Advocate: Doubront's minor league numbers were good, but they didn't indicate anything that would translate to wild success in the majors. Additionally, his 1.36 WHIP suggests that his ERA may currently be a bit low, meaning he could be due for a correction. On top of all that, the Red Sox have Daisuke Matsuzaka and Andrew Bailey coming back from injury soon, which could create a crunch of both a direct (Matsuzaka will require a spot) and indirect (Bailey could push Alfredo Aceves to the rotation, sending Doubront to long relief) nature.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals
Jump in ownership: 14 percent (from 60 percent to 74)
Reason for the jump: Francoeur has four multi-hit games in his last six.
Why you should join the crowd: Blink and you missed Francoeur's batting average rise from .235 (on May 19) to .282 (on the 28th). Of his five home runs on the season, four have come in the last seven games. He even picked up his first steal of the season against the Orioles. Francoeur put up a 20-20 campaign in 2011 and has as many as 29 home runs in a single season.
Devil's Advocate: Those 22 bases he stole last year marked the first time in Francoeur's career that he produced double-digits in the category. And while he has a lifetime batting average of .271, that number has dipped as low as .239 during his career. He's streaky and can be one of the more frustrating players in Fantasy, rotating from extremely cold to extremely hot without warning. So beware. His season may look great in September, but there may be plenty of peaks and valleys along the way.

Thanks, But No Thanks
The five most deactivated healthy players
Player decrease in start %
1. Henry Rodriguez, RP, Nationals 31
2. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins 25
3. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Yankees 24
4. Brandon League, RP, Mariners 24
5. Edinson Volquez, SP, Padres 23

Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
Jump in ownership: 15 percent (from 28 percent to 43)
Reason for the jump: Beckham entered May with a .153 average; as of Tuesday, it sat at .224.
Why you should join the crowd: Beckham, a former first-round pick, has turned his season around in the month of May. He's hit .264, with five home runs and 14 RBI. His OPS jumped .300 points over April, going from .434 to .763. Over the last 14 days, Beckham ranks as the seventh-best second baseman in Fantasy.
Devil's Advocate: Before the recent hot streak, Beckham was experiencing a three-year slide in nearly every offensive category (from 2009 to 2011). His average went from .270 to .252 to .230; His RBI, doubles, OPS, and walk totals all dropped over the three-season span while his at-bats increased. In fact, if the season ended today, his OPS would be only slightly higher than it was last year and his average would be the lowest of his four-season career.

Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers
Jump in ownership: 10 percent and rising (from 29 percent to 39)
Reason for the jump: Oswalt has signed with the Rangers.
Why you should join the crowd: Oswalt isn't really a big mystery. Over 2,154 innings pitched, he has a career 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's a three-time All-Star who has finished in the top five for Cy Young voting on five separate occasions. The only mystery right now is how long it will take him to get in to playing shape (guessing it will be three or four weeks).
Devil's Advocate: Oswalt's career splits at Rangers Ballpark: 2-5, 4.78 EA and 1.44 WHIP in eight starts. Granted, that's playing against the Rangers, not playing with them, but when you run into a pitcher of Oswalt's caliber, you have to look somewhere for the downside to it all.

More than 50, less than 50
Players owned in more than 50% of leagues who should be owned in less than 50%
Player % owned
1. Delmon Young, OF, Tigers 53
2. Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees 54
3. Russell Martin, C, Yankees 56
4. Jake Westbrook, SP, Cardinals 58
5. Trevor Bauer, SP, Diamondbacks 60

Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Mariners
Jump in ownership: Nine percent (from seven percent to 16)
Reason for the jump: Wilhelmsen looks to be the favorite for saves in Seattle with Brandon League being demoted to setup duty.
Why you should join the crowd: Besides being an awesome story -- Wilhelmsen was out of baseball for six years, backpacking around the world and serving as a bartender in Arizona -- he does look like the early favorite to get saves in League's absence. So far this season, he has 30 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings pitched.
Devil's Advocate: Wilhelmsen also has a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Furthermore, League hit a bit of a bump last year and responded by not allowing a run from May 17 to July 5. So while he has a great story (the movie will end with Wilhelmsen pitching in the ALCS with a full count in the bottom of the ninth to Daniel Nava), it's not the most ideal of scenarios: Wilhelmsen has some pretty high ratios, manager Eric Wedge indicated that he would let matchups dictate who comes in for saves, and League could take a week off and come right back into his closer role.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Royals Jeremy Guthrie gets the loss in Game 7
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie picked up the loss Wednesday in Game 7 against the Giants.

Guthrie allowed three runs on four hits over 3 1/3 innings. He struck out three and did not issue any walks during the performance. Manager Ned Yost had a quick hook with the season on the line, leading to Guthrie getting pulled despite a low pitch count. After putting two men on base to start the fourth, Guthrie was replaced by Kelvin Herrera. Herrera would allow a run-scoring single to Michael Morse. That run would be charged to Guthrie, ultimately sticking him with the loss. 


Giants' Tim Hudson gets the quick hook in Game 7
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) Giants pitcher Tim Hudson got the quick hook Wednesday in Game 7 against the Royals.

Hudson lasted just 1 2/3 innings, giving up two runs on three hits. He struck out one and walked one during the outing. Manager Bruce Bochy had a quick hook with the season on line, and pulled Hudson at the first sign of trouble. With the game tied 2-2, Hudson was pulled after giving up a single to Alcides Escobar. He threw 28 pitches during the outing. 


Giants' Madison Bumgarner caps World Series with save
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner capped off his dominant postseason run with a five inning save in Game 7 of the World Series.

Bumgarner came on in relief and was masterful. Pitching on just two days rest, Bumgarner was able to go five innings, giving up just two hits. He struck out four while throwing 68 pitches. Though Bumgarner wasn't technically the pitcher of record, the official scorer decided to give him the win. The ruling was later changed to give Bumgarner the save and Jeremy Affeldt the win. Bumgarner was named World Series MVP for his performance. 


Red Sox to target Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) The Red Sox will target Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley this offseason, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

Both players are set to be free-agents, though both could opt to remain in their current organizations. Boston would have interest in Aramis Ramirez if he's made available, but it's believed Ramirez will stay with Milwaukee. Will Middlebrooks hit just .191 over 215 injury-riddled at-bats last season. 


Reds sent Neftali Soto to Triple-A
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) The Reds have outrighted infielder Neftali Soto to Triple-A Wednesday.

The move frees up a spot on the team's 40-man roster. Soto received just 30 at-bats in the majors. He hit .100. 


Angels' Tony Campana elects free agency
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) Angels outfielder Tony Campana has elected free agency, according to SBNation.

Campana was outrighted by the club, but declined the assignment. He'll look to hook on with another team during the offseason. Campana hit .187 over 75 at-bats last year. 


Orioles outright Evan Meek to Triple-A
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) The Orioles have outrighted pitcher Evan Meek to Triple-A, according to MASN.

The move frees up a spot on the team's 40-man roster. Meek posted a 5.79 ERA over 23 1/3 innings last season. 


Justin Smoak expects to renegotiate deal with Blue Jays
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak expects the club to decline his option, according to Sportsnet. 

Smoak is owed $3.65 million next season, but believes Toronto will decline that deal. The two sides will then renegotiate a new figure for the upcoming season. Smoak hit .202/.275/.339 over 248 at-bats with Seattle last season. 


Mets pitcher Vic Black good to go
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) Mets pitcher Vic Black is good to go, according to the Star-Ledger

Black was sidelined late in the year due to neck and shoulder issues, but is expected to have a normal offseason. He'll be able to resume throwing next month, and said his shoulder feels "great."


Reds decline option on Jack Hannahan
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/29/2014) The Reds have declined an option on infielder Jack Hannahan, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer

The team could have brought Hannahan back at $4 million, but decided to cut bait and pay him $2 million. Hannahan played just 26 games with the club last season. He hit .188. 


 
 
 
Rankings