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Setting the Trends: Don't be a Homer owner?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Let's just get the cute little quote at the top out of the way now.

There's always an element of not remembering the past here in Fantasy, and I'm sure George Santayana had our beloved game-based-on-a-game in mind when he coined the expression. Homer Bailey, for instance, has fooled plenty of Fantasy players into thinking that he's good enough to be owned in 77 percent of leagues. Those who remember Bailey's past roller coaster-type exploits knew enough to shy away -- even in light of a two-start week. Heck, even those who looked at his splits saw his ERA jump from May to June. But owners flocked to him in droves anyway, and now they're locked in for two June starts from the Reds pitcher in Week 10.

Of course, Santayana probably never encountered the idea of "learning a new pitch," or "playing in Japan." Or even thought of some day, many years after his death, when a man like Ray Searage would roam the earth and teach young men how to corral their talent. We know the sketchy histories of Jason Hammel, Ryan Vogelsong, and James McDonald, for instance. And yet, we ignore them, because Hammel has mastered a new pitch, Vogelsong is a different pitcher after his stint in Japan, and Searage has McDonald throwing more first-pitch strikes.

Most Added Players (as of 6/7)
Player % increase
1. Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox 29
2. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies 22
3. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies 20
4. Ernesto Frieri, RP, Angels 17
5. Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners 17
6. Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins 17
7. Quintin Berry, OF, Tigers 17
8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, D-Backs 16
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox 15
10. A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates 15

Then again, going far deeper than Santayana probably ever wanted anyone playing a game to go with his thoughts, if we also consider that other pitchers and players along the way have made adjustments, then we are simply ignoring one set of past circumstances to appreciate a much larger past.

Right?

Bah. Shake your head a few times and unwind your mind. There are far simpler and less philosophical reasons for this week's adds and drops.

On to the Roster Trends!

Most Added Highlights

Homer Bailey, SP, Reds
Jump in ownership: 41 percent (from 36 percent to 77)
Reason for the jump: In the four starts before getting rocked on Tuesday night, Bailey was 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He also has two starts this week.
Why you should join the crowd: Hey, maybe Bailey, a 2004 first-round draft pick, has finally figured things out. He's shown flashes of greatness before and has the ability to rack up a decent amount of strikeouts.
Devil's Advocate: Bailey has a career ERA of 4.75, with a 1.43 WHIP. There have been countless instances of Fantasy owners believing he had figured things out before. His 4.10 ERA in May is the second-lowest of any month for him. The lowest is actually September, which may help explain why players keep running back to Bailey: We remember his early performances, and then remember his late-season appearances, which stick in our memories. But the hard truth is that Bailey's ERA jumps to 7.29 in June, 5.98 in July and 4.87 in August.That's a combination that makes his far more unattractive than his 77 percent ownership would suggest.

Less than 50, more than 50
Players owned in less than 50% of leagues who should be owned in more than 50%
Player % owned
1. Jerome Williams, SP, Angels 49
2. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals 48
3. Brian Fuentes, RP, Athletics 43
4. Anthony Bass, RP/SP, Padres 42
5. Dillon Gee, SP, Mets 37

Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners
Jump in ownership: 23 percent (from 44 percent to 67)
Reason for the jump: Since May 25, Smoak is batting .368 with five home runs, 14 RBI and a steal.
Why you should join the crowd: Hey, maybe Smoak, a 2008 first-round draft pick, has finally figured things out (sound familiar?). He's as hot as any player in baseball right now and is in the top 25 for home runs.
Devil's Advocate: Even with the hot streak, Smoak is still batting just .240 and with almost 1,000 at-bats under his belt, he has just a .230 career average. He's hit just 38 total home runs. Just to dampen the spirits of Smoak supporters even further, he's been borderline-miserable at home (.188 average, .552 OPS), but excellent on the road (.268 average, 7 HR in 32 games).
Devil's Advocate's Advocate: Smoak was a top-15 prospect before the 2009 season and while he doesn't have the booming minor league power numbers of an Alex Liddi or Matt Adams, he has shown flashes of some pop over four minor league campaigns. There's hope here that this surge might just be Smoak blossoming at age 25.

Holding Out for A Hero
The five most owned minor leaguers
Player Ownership %
1. Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers 69
2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Diamondbacks 64
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs 46
4. Daniel Bard, RP/SP, Red Sox 34
5. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Marlins 32

Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
Jump in ownership: 17 percent (from 24 percent to 41)
Reason for the jump: Rosario has a .346 average and three home runs over his last nine games.
Why you should join the crowd: Unlike Bailey and Smoak, Rosario doesn't have an extensive major league track record to dampen our optimism. He saw limited time last year after pounding the ball in the minors in 2010 and 2011, with 19 and 21 home runs, respectively. His batting average probably won't get much higher than .250, but for a power-hitting catcher, that's about .030 points higher than what you'd expect anyway. As a bonus, Rosario's power doesn't seem to be solely the product of Coors Field, as his OPS is just slightly higher (.892 vs .832) at home.
Devil's Advocate: Rosario is only 23 years old and just got his 150th major league at-bat. There may be some growing pains along the way and some owners may jump on him too quickly -- passing over better catching options -- just to prove that they got "The Next Big Thing" before their league mates. Expect the power to continue to a degree (I'd guess he ends up with about 18 home runs on the year), but be prepared for the average to take a hit at some point.

Dillon Gee, SP, Mets
Jump in ownership: 16 percent (from 21 percent to 37)
Reason for the jump: The 26 year-old is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last four games. He has struck out 28 batters in his last 27 1/3 innings.
Why you should join the crowd: While the jump in Gee's ownership is somewhat inflated by his two-start week, the numbers on his full season so far might have his new owners holding on to him after this mercenary stint. Gee has gone into Colorado and held the Rockies to three runs. He's also allowed the Blue Jays and Cardinals to score five total runs off him as well. As a bonus, Gee is currently sporting an 8.3 K/9 ratio, which is more in line with his minor league rate (7.9) than his 6.4 K/9 with the Mets in 2011. His 65 strikeouts have him 23rd in the majors.
Devil's Advocate: Gee had a decent 3.78 ERA through five minor league seasons and has a career 4.16 ERA in his MLB career. While he did hold some high-powered offenses to just a few runs, his 4.48 ERA this season can't really hide a blowout against the Giants (seven runs in 6 2/3) and the Brewers (seven runs in 5 1/3).

More than 50, less than 50
Players owned in more than 50% of leagues who should be owned in less than 50%
Player % owned
1. Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins 51
2. Joe Saunders, SP, Diamondbacks 52
3. Delmon Young, OF, Tigers 53
4. Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals 54
5. Russell Martin, C, Yankees 55

Kris Medlen, RP, Braves
Jump in ownership: Four percent (from four percent to eight)
Reason for the jump: Medlen has been sent to the minors to get stretched out as a starter.
Why you should join the crowd: Eight percent is hardly a crowd, which makes the Medlen play even tastier. This is as under-the-radar as they come. Medlen had Tommy John surgery a couple years ago but he has an electric arm (he struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings in the minors) and enough talent to make his ownership double when Fantasy players saw he was going to be converted to a starter. There's little to go on as far as his effectiveness as a member of a rotation -- he only started about 23 percent of his appearances in the minors, with really good numbers in that role -- but grabbing him now, and stashing him (especially in keeper and dynasty leagues), could be a move that pays off handsomely down the road.
Devil's Advocate: Of course, this could all go terribly awry and blow up in our faces, as Medlen's last time pitching as a starter was 2010, when he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. That year, though, he had a 3.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP while producing a 6.9 K/9 ratio. It's also the year he hurt his elbow, so take those numbers with an even larger grain of salt. In his first start with Gwinnett -- and this is just being pessimistic here, as it's tough to make a case to not pick up Medlen right now in keeper, single, and deeper league formats -- he gave up four runs in 2 1/3 innings pitched.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Rays pitcher C.J. Riefenhauser tosses one inning in Class A rehab
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:41 am ET) Rays pitcher C.J. Riefenhauser tossed one scoreless inning of action on Sunday for Class A Charlotte, his first appearance as a part of his rehab assignment.

Riefenhauser, who is currently on the 15-day DL with a shoulder injury, walked two batters and struck out one, but did not allow a hit. Riefenhauser has made two appearances this season, allowing three runs in 1 1/3 innings of work, but has not pitched since April 23 when the injury occurred.


Rays infielder Ryan Brett begins Class A rehab assignment Sunday
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(1:37 am ET) Rays infielder Ryan Brett went 2 for 3 in his first Class A rehab game for Charlotte on Sunday. Brett had a double and two runs scored before getting taken out of the game.

Brett, who is currently on the 15-day DL with a shoulder injury, has played in just three games for Tampa Bay this season and has been out of action since April 22.


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(1:24 am ET) Tigers catcher Bryan Holaday went 1 for 3 at the plate in Detroit's 10-8 loss to the Astros on Sunday.

Holaday did his damage in the first inning when he stepped to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. Holaday ripped a doubled to left field off of Roberto Hernandez, scoring all three runs and doubling his RBI total for the season.

Holaday is now hitting .308 in 13 at-bats this season.


Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera blasts 11th home run of the season
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:22 am ET) Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera went 2 for 5 at the plate in Detroit's 10-8 loss to the Astros on Sunday.

Cabrera did his damage in the ninth inning when he crushed the first pitch he saw from Luke Gregerson over the left center field wall for a solo home run, his 11th of the season.

Cabrera is now hitting .344 with 32 RBI in 163 at-bats this season.


Astros DH Evan Gattis blasts ninth home run of the season
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:18 am ET) Astros designated hitter Evan Gattis went 3 for 4 at the plate in Houston's 10-8 win over the Tigers on Sunday.

Gattis got things going in the first inning when he ripped a triple to right field, scoring two runs, his second of the season. Then in the sixth, Gattis blasted a solo shot off of Anibal Sanchez to left center field, his ninth of the season. 

Gattis, who also drew one walk, is now hitting .201 with 28 RBI in 154 at-bats this season.


Pirates 3B Josh Harrison on a tear at the plate of late
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:21 am ET) Pirates third baseman Josh Harrison has turned things around at the plate. On May 10, general manager Neal Huntington suggested Harrison was pressing too much to prove his worth. Harrison is hitting .468 (22 for 47) in 11 games since those remarks and Huntington is estatic for him, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

"It looks like a guy that's having fun playing the game again," Huntington said Sunday. "Just showing up with energy every day and trying to do everything in his power to help a club win versus trying to justify. It’s fun to watch him get back out there and be the guy he is."

Harrison extended his hitting streak to 11 on Sunday and noted his contract may have factored into his early struggles.

"The contract could have played a little into it," he said. "It's no secret I knew I was a contract guy. But that doesn't make me approach the game any different. It's just a matter of, you know, I got off to a rough start."

Harrison is now hitting .261 with 14 RBI in 157 at-bats this season.


Mets pitcher Dillon Gee unclear of role when activated from DL
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:14 am ET) Mets pitcher Dillon Gee was baffled on Sunday for multiple reasons. After losing his luggage, Gee was told he will head back to make a third rehab start this week. He is also unclear of what his role will be in the starting rotation when he is able to return, according to the New York Daily News.

"I don't know what to think about it," Gee said. "I kind of raised that, I felt like I am just wasting bullets trying to get over 100 pitches in a minor league rehab game. I am doing what they want me to do.

"Obviously you wondered what the roles will be, because all the roles are all filled," Gee said. "He's (Syndergaard) pitched really well, so he deserves to be here as well. I wonder the same thing as most of you... what’s going to happen."

Gee is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 30 1/3 innings of work this season.


Giants pitcher Jean Machi preserves bullpen on Sunday
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(12:08 am ET) Giants pitcher Jean Machi allowed three runs, two earned, on five hits in 2 2/3 innings of work in San Francisco's 11-2 loss to the Rockies on Sunday.

Machi was called on early when starter Tim Hudson struggled to find the zone and was knocked around. He helped to keep San Francisco was digging deeper into the bullpen, manager Bruce Bochy said per CSN Bay Area.

"Machi saved us," Bochy said. "I thought he had some of his best stuff, too. He should feel good about that and the fact that he did give us those innings."

Machi now has a 4.63 ERA in 23 1/3 innings of work this season.


Rangers DH Prince Fielder continues hot hitting with two RBI
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(12:03 am ET) Rangers designated hitter Prince Fielder went 3 for 5 at the plate in Texas' 5-2 win over the Yankees on Sunday.

Fielder, who also singled twice, did his damage in the first when he doubled to deep center field, driving home a run. Fielder singkled to right in the seventh to collect his second RBI. Fielder is tearing the cover off the ball, hitting a blistering .358 with 32 RBI in 176 at-bats this season.


Yankees catcher Brian McCann leaves with foot injury on Sunday
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(5/24/2015) Yankees catcher Brian McCann was forced to leave Sunday's game against the Rangers with a cramp in his foot/calf, according to MLB.com. 

Manager Joe Girardi said he was a little concerned with the injury, but won't know more about it until Monday. McCann went 1 for 4 with two RBI in Sunday's game before exiting. He said after the game he is planning on playing in Monday's game against the Royals.


 
 
 
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