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Fantasy Relief: Is Cook playing with fire?

Michael Hurcomb
Fantasy Writer
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There might be space on the Ryan Cook bandwagon, but I'm hesitant to jump on. His numbers are so astronomically off the charts, it just feels like the bottom has to fall out and the A's will be making a third change at closer at some point this season.

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Bob Melvin is a master of deception. When he removed Brian Fuentes from the closer's role on June 9, the A's manager said he would consider Fuentes, previous closer Grant Balfour and Cook for save opportunities moving forward. It seemed logical that Cook would be the guy to inherit the role since Balfour and Fuentes got their chances, but Melvin said he didn't want to give Cook the full-time gig because he wanted him available to use in other high-leverage situations. Well wouldn't you know, Cook has recorded the last four saves for the A's through Tuesday.

Though he indicated other intentions, you can't really blame Melvin for leaning on Cook, who has a 0.59 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 28 relief outings. He is also striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. Those numbers are fine and dandy, but some of Cook's other numbers scare me.

Let's start with his walk rate. Cook is walking 4.9 batters per nine innings. He isn't the first hard-throwing closer to have control problems. Jose Valverde and John Axford are known to have suspect walk rates, yet have been effective overall in their given roles. However, Cook has just a 46.2 percent first-pitch strike rate this season, which puts him in the bottom five in the majors among relievers. Rafael Dolis has the worst (44.6 percent) and he was demoted to the minors after losing his gig as the Cubs' closer, and wouldn't you know two spots behind Cook is Fuentes, who is throwing first-pitch strikes just 48.5 percent of the time.

Another glaring red flag for me is Cook's .134 BABIP, which is well below the norm and his career average as a reliever. When Cook converted to a reliever in the minors in 2011, he had a .245 BABIP at Double-A and a .283 BABIP at Triple-A. Even when he was in the majors last year, he had a .423 BABIP. It seems Cook's luck is bound to run out eventually.

Cook also has an outstanding 92.6 percent strand rate and 10.6 percent line-drive rate this season. The league average for strand rate is 70 percent to 72 percent and line-drive rate is 20 percent. Even when Craig Kimbrel won Rookie of the Year honors in 2011 he had an 80.7 percent strand rate and 15.4 percent line-drive rate.

Lastly, as you might know, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a measuring tool of what a player's ERA should look like over a given period and xFIP is calculated the same way but replaces a pitcher's home run total with an estimate of how many homers they should have allowed. Well, Cook's ERA might be 0.59, but his FIP is 2.73 and his xFIP is 4.09, indicating a market correction is likely coming.

If I were a stock broker, you might hear me screaming on the other end of the phone, "Sell! Sell! Sell!"

Closing Time

Each week we'll break down closer situations worthy of further examination ...

Seattle: Like Melvin, Mariners manager Eric Wedge also had a quick change of heart. A week ago he was ready to transition Brandon League back into the closer's role. However, a week later he said he will stick by current closer Tom Wilhelmsen for the time being. But the short-term could very well turn into the long-term for Wilhelmsen. The Mariners could still unload League as the trade deadline nears, and Wilhelmsen's numbers right now don't suggest a dramatic decline is coming. He has a .292 BABIP and his FIP (2.70) is actually lower than his current ERA (3.00). His biggest hurdle might be how he performs at the first sign of adversity. I endorse Fantasy owners in mixed leagues adding Wilhelmsen (owned in 43 percent of leagues) off waivers.

Top non-closers Week 11 (H2H)
Player Points
1. Jose Quintana, RP, White Sox 39
2. Lance Lynn, RP, Cardinals 34
3. Garrett Richards, RP, Angels 33.5
4. Luis Mendoza, RP, Royals 32.5
5. Matt Moore, RP, Rays 31
6. Felix Doubront, RP, Red Sox 29.5
7. Michael Fiers, RP, Brewers 26.5
8. Ronald Belisario, RP, Dodgers 26.5
9. Tim Collins, RP, Royals 22
10. Carlos Villanueva, RP, Blue Jays 20.5

Chicago Cubs: I understand Cubs manager Dale Sveum wanting to solidify roles in his bullpen, but is bringing Carlos Marmol back as the closer going to make him sleep easy at night? Marmol lost the job earlier this season because he had trouble throwing strikes. It's still not like he's a shutdown reliever. In nine appearances since coming off the disabled list in late May, Marmol has walked seven batters and posted a 4.32 ERA in 8 1/3 innings. We are seeing some improvements. He has thrown 58 percent of strikes in his last eight outings, which is up from 54 percent in his first 15 appearances (11 1/3 innings). He's also increased his strikes looking rate from 20 percent to 21 percent in those timeframes, but I wouldn't say Marmol is off the hot seat. It seems if Marmol were to lose the job again, then Sveum might just alternate save chances between James Russell and Shawn Camp.

Minnesota: Speaking of a lefty-righty closer combo that seems to be manager Ron Gardenhire's choice when Matt Capps is sidelined. Gardenhire said after Capps sat this weekend with a sore shoulder that Jared Burton and Glen Perkins would be up for save chances based on matchups. Capps is only sidelined for the short-term, so Gardenhire could always change his mind if it becomes a long-term situation. Perkins would seem to be the favored closer, but if you remember Twins general manager Terry Ryan didn't want to promote Perkins to the closer's role after Joe Nathan signed with the Rangers. Ryan said, "History says you might want to have somebody with experience." Well, Burton closed games in the minors and Perkins didn't, so I wouldn't sleep on Burton if the Twins' need an alternate closer at some point.

Detroit: Phil Coke was called upon for a save Tuesday against the Cardinals after Jose Valverde was unavailable with a wrist injury. Manager Jim Leyland said earlier this year that Coke would be used in save situations if Valverde was unavailable and the matchups called for it. The Tigers were set to face three left-handed hitters in the ninth inning Tuesday, which is why Coke received the call over Joaquin Benoit. Valverde has been diagnosed with a sprained right wrist and hopes to avoid the disabled list. If he has to miss extended time, then Benoit would still likely be the first option for saves, with Coke as the backup closer. Coke is a workhorse in the Tigers' bullpen and it doesn't seem Leyland would want to pigeonhole him into one role.

Milwaukee: John Axford has been off in June. He is 1-2 with an 11.25 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and three blown saves in eight outings. His latest came Tuesday against the Blue Jays, when he surrendered two homers in the ninth inning. Axford has allowed three homers in June after not allowing one in the previous two months. Manager Ron Roenicke can't put his finger on what's troubling Axford, but he backed him as his closer Wednesday. One of Axford's biggest problems is falling behind hitters. He has already issued six walks in eight June innings, and both of his surrendered homers Tuesday came on 3-1 pitches. Perhaps a saving grace for Axford is that setup man Francisco Rodriguez has also had his struggles this season, so his presence isn't forcing Roenicke to make a change. But if Axford's problems persist, then maybe Milwaukee will turn to K-Rod.

Top non-closers Week 11 (Rotisserie)
Player Rank
1. Tim Collins, RP, Royals 17
2. Ronald Belisario, RP, Dodgers 18
3. Carlos Villanueva, RP, Blue Jays 35
4. Chad Durbin, RP, Braves 40
5. Brayan Villarreal, RP, Tigers 54
6. Freddy Garcia, RP, Yankees 55
7. Matt Belisle, RP, Rockies 56
8. Sean Marshall, RP, Reds 60
9. Jamey Wright, RP, Dodgers 61
10. Matt Albers, RP, Red Sox 63

Washington: Drew Storen is expected to return to the major-league roster before the All-Star break, barring any setbacks in his recovery. Storen has been sidelined all season due to April elbow surgery, and the Nationals closer situation had been a carousel of uncertainty before Tyler Clippard brought stability to the role. But as good as Clippard has been, Storen is expected to regain the closer's job once active. Fantasy owners might want to deal Clippard while his Fantasy value is still high.

Pittsburgh: Manager Clint Hurdle hinted over the weekend that it was going to take an impressive offer for the Pirates to deal closer Joel Hanrahan. It makes sense because Hanrahan isn't slated to become a free agent until after the 2013 season, so the Pirates don't have to rush into a trade this summer. But if something did transpire with Hanrahan, then Juan Cruz, who filled in as closer earlier this season when Hanrahan was unavailable, would the logical choice to ascend to the closer's role. Unless, the Pirates unload him in a trade since he's set to become a free agent this offseason. Then, the next likely choice would be Jason Grilli, who is enjoying a career resurgence.

Call to the 'pen

Each week we'll break down pertinent Fantasy news with setup men and other relievers ...

Hisashi Iwakuma is moving up the Mariners' bullpen ladder. Manager Eric Wedge said Sunday that Iwakuma will be used more frequently in setup situations. Iwakuma has mostly pitched in losses or blowout wins this year. Iwakuma might soon be worth adding in leagues that reward for holds ... Kris Medlen's performance in the minors as a starter was less-than-spectacular, so Atlanta added him back to the bullpen last week. However, an injury to starter Brandon Beachy could mean the Braves reconsider adding Medlen to the rotation, especially if Jair Jurrjens bombs in his return to the majors ... Yankees manager Joe Girardi is comfortable using Boone Logan as a left-handed setup man. Since May 11, Logan has a 2.25 ERA, 18 strikeouts, seven holds, one win and one save in his last 18 appearances (12 innings). Logan is developing into a viable Fantasy reliever in leagues that reward for holds ... It's been a bumpy ride the last few years for Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario. He missed last season because of visa issues and missed the start of the 2012 season while serving a 25-game suspension for a positive drug test. But now that Belisario's off-the-field issues are behind him, he's been one of the more steady arms in the Dodgers' bullpen. Belisario is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his first 21 2/3 innings this season. He also has six holds. Belisario has been getting late-inning work and seems to be an alternate setup man to Josh Lindblom. Belisario has emerged as a low-end Fantasy option for holds ... The Orioles bullpen has been outstanding in 2012, and 34-year-old veteran reliever Luis Ayala has played a huge part in the bullpen's resurgence. Ayala is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, one save and six holds in 27 outings. He also has walked just five batters in 31 innings. Ayala pitches in multiple situations for the O's and is even used in multi-inning situations, so he doesn't see a steady diet of hold situations. Ayala remains a very low-end Fantasy reliever.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Michael Hurcomb at @CBSHurc . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com

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Player News
Hector Santiago lasts only five frames in loss to A's
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(2:00 am ET) Angels pitcher Hector Santiago lasted five innings Friday against the Athletics.

Santiago allowed two runs, one earned, on seven hits over five innings. He struck out five and walked two during the outing. Santiago gave up his first run against the first batter he faced. Coco Crisp hit a leadoff home run out to left center off Santiago in the first inning. He was able to get through the next three innings unscathed, but ran into trouble again in the fifth. On a fielder’s choice, a run wound up coming around on a throwing error by shortstop Erick Aybar. Santiago was able to get out of the inning, but was replaced to start the sixth. Santiago threw 98 pitches.

With the loss, Santiago dropped to 3-8. He’ll take on the Marlins in his next start.

Sonny Gray nearly goes the distance for win No. 13
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(2:00 am ET) Athletics pitcher Sonny Gray nearly went the distance and still picked up his 13th win of the season Friday night against the Angels. The right-hander permitted three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five over 8 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory.

Over his last three starts covering 20 2/3 innings, Gray has allowed nine earned runs. He owns a 3.00 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 26 starts (171 innings). He will make his next start Wednesday at Houston.

Sean Doolittle picks up two-out save Friday
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:59 am ET) Athletics closer Sean Doolittle allowed three runners on base but still managed to pick up a rare two-out save Friday night against the Angels. Doolittle struck out two, allowed two hits and a walk in two-thirds of a scoreless inning. He has converted 19 of 22 save chances, with a 2.32 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP over 54 1/3 innings of relief.

Hector Santiago goes five innings Friday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1:06 am ET) Angels pitcher Hector Santiago lasted five innings Friday against the Athletics.

Santiago allowed two runs, one earned, on seven hits over five innings. He struck out five and walked two during the outing. Santiago gave up his first run against the first batter he faced. Coco Crisp hit a leadoff home run out to left center off Santiago in the first inning. He was able to get through the next three innings unscathed, but ran into trouble again in the fifth. On a fielder’s choice, a run wound up coming around on a throwing error by shortstop Erick Aybar. Santiago was able to get out of the inning, but was replaced to start the sixth. Santiago threw 98 pitches. 

With the loss, Santiago dropped to 3-8. He’ll take on the Marlins in his next start. 


Jonathon Niese sunk by an error Friday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:54 am ET) Mets pitcher Jonathon Niese was hurt by an error Friday against the Dodgers.

Niese allowed five runs, two earned, on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out four and walked three during the outing. Niese gave up his earned runs in the third and fifth innings. The seventh inning proved to be problematic. Niese recorded the first two out quickly via the strikeout. With two outs in the inning, Niese gave up a triple to Dee Gordon. After a Yasiel Puig walk, Adrian Gonzalez reached on a throwing error. Niese was pulled at that point. The two runs he left on base managed to score on a double. Both runs were charged to Niese, though they were unearned runs. 

With the loss, Niese dropped to 7-9. He’ll take on the Braves in his next start.


Dan Haren turns in solid start Friday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:53 am ET) Dodgers pitcher Dan Haren turned in a solid start Friday against the Mets.

Haren allowed one run on three hits over seven innings. He struck out six and did not issue any walks. Haren’s only mistake came way back in the first inning. Haren allowed a solo home run against the lead off hitter. Despite the early struggles, Haren settled in. He erased a second inning single with a double-play, and did the same in the fourth after a runner reached on an error. 

With the win, Haren improved to 11-10. He’ll take on the Padres in his next start. 


Greg Holland saves No. 40
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:52 am ET) Royals closer Greg Holland saved his 40th game Friday against the Rangers.

Holland entered with a three-run lead in the ninth. He immediately recorded two outs before issuing a walk. The Rangers threat ended there. Against the fourth batter in the inning, Holland got Elvis Andrus to pop out to end the game. 


Fernando Rodney picks up save No. 37
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:50 am ET) Mariners closer Fernando Rodney picked up his 37th save Friday against the Red Sox.

Rodney entered the game with a two-run lead. He immediately recorded the first two outs on a groudout and flyout. Rodney issued a walk with two outs, but was able to work out of it. Against the next hitter, Rodney inducing a game-ending flyout to right. 


Craig Kimbrel nails down a save Friday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:47 am ET) Braves closer Craig Kimbrel picked up a save Friday against the Reds.

Kimbrel entered with a two-run lead in the 12th inning. He struck out Jay Bruce to open the frame, and quickly got his second out on a lineout. With two outs, Kimbrel put one man on with a walk. He managed to shut the door against the fourth batter of the inning, striking out Skip Schumaker to end the game. It was Kimbrel's 38th save.


Jonathan Papelbon picks up 31st save Friday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:45 am ET) Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 31st save Friday against the Cardinals.

Papelbon entered with a one-run lead in the ninth inning. He was perfect during his only inning of work, inducing a lineout, groundout and flyout. Papelbon threw 12 pitches, six of which were strikes. He's lowered his ERA to 1.52 following the outing. 


 
 
 
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