Top 70 starters for Week 14
One of the biggest developments in Fantasy Week 13 was the introduction of Trevor Bauer and Andrew Cashner to their respective teams' rotations. This storyline will get an additional twist in Fantasy Week 14 (July 2-8), when the two phenoms are scheduled to face off against each other in Phoenix on Tuesday.
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Bauer will not only take the hill for the Diamondbacks against Cashner's Padres, but he also gets a weekend start against the reeling Dodgers. Due to a nagging groin injury, and possibly inexperience and jitters as well, Bauer was uneven in his four-inning debut at Atlanta. Still, it's hard to keep someone as talented as Bauer on the bench with a pair of starts against struggling offenses, so he makes this week's top 70 starters list.
Though Cashner's ownership rate is rapidly approaching the 50 percent mark, any owners in standard mixed leagues who have picked him up should sit him for the coming week. Not only is his track record as a minor league starter not as impressive as Bauer's, but we know from his time as a major league reliever that he can run into control issues. Cashner could easily appear on this list in future weeks, but unless you are determined to go for broke this week, you will probably be better off going with a more established one-start option like Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson or Jason Vargas.
In fact, here are 70 pitchers who I trust more than Cashner for Week 14.
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| Rank | Player | Start 1 | Start 2 | Stat of note |
| 1 | Jered Weaver | @CLE (Jimenez) | BAL (Hammel) | Opponents' .193 Avg |
| Weaver's strikeout and swinging strike rates are mediocre this year, but he avoids hard contact, which translates into a dearth of base hits. | ||||
| 2 | Zack Greinke | MIA (Zambrano) | @HOU (Rodriguez) | 0.89 WHIP in June |
| The apparent bad luck on balls in play that dogged Greinke over the first two months of the season is now a thing of the past, and he's looking like a true ace. | ||||
| 3 | James McDonald | HOU (Lyles) | SF (Vogelsong) | 1.63 home ERA |
| McDonald has become a must-start option, but with two home starts against mediocre offenses, he is in for an especially big week. | ||||
| 4 | Justin Verlander | MIN (Duensing) | N/A | 46 Ks over last 48 1/3 innings |
| In what qualifies as a slump for him (3.54 ERA over last seven starts), Verlander is giving up more extra-base hits, but he continues to miss bats. | ||||
| 5 | Johan Santana | CHC (Wood) | N/A | 64 percent strikes thrown, last three starts |
| Though Santana has benefited from good matchups the last three times out, he has helped himself by re-establishing his command. | ||||
| 6 | Clayton Kershaw | @ARI (Collmenter) | N/A | Career 2.59 ERA at ARI |
| Chase Field is a tough environment for pitchers, but Kershaw has sailed through his starts there, particularly over the previous two seasons. | ||||
| 7 | Felix Hernandez | BAL (Chen) | N/A | 68 percent strikes thrown, last three starts |
| During his recent slump, Hernandez's command was not quite up to his normal standards, but he has been back to his usual self over the last couple of weeks. | ||||
| 8 | R.A. Dickey | PHI (Lee) | N/A | 16 percent swinging strike rate, last nine starts |
| Hitters can't connect against Dickey, and he won't help them out with walks, which is why he is a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate. | ||||
| 9 | Cole Hamels | ATL (Hudson) | N/A | 2.92 ERA vs. ATL since 2011 |
| Hamels struggled against the Braves earlier in his career, but he has mastered them more recently. | ||||
| 10 | Johnny Cueto | @LAD (Capuano) | @SD (Cashner) | No home runs allowed in six straight starts |
| As Cueto has cranked up his ground ball rate, he has limited the opposition mostly to singles. | ||||
| 11 | Matt Cain | @WAS (Detwiler) | N/A | 10 line drives allowed vs. CIN on Fri. |
| Cain's liner rate was a modest 15 percent before Friday's start, so his poor performance (5 ER in 6 2/3 innings) can be chalked up as a blip on the radar for now. | ||||
| 12 | Madison Bumgarner | @WAS (Jackson) | N/A | 62 Ks over last 58 1/3 innings |
| Last season's surge in strikeouts was no fluke for Bumgarner, as he has entered into K-per-inning-plus territory lately. | ||||
| 13 | Stephen Strasburg | COL (Outman) | N/A | 104 degrees at game time, Sat. at ATL |
| Strasburg had been in a nice groove before Saturday's heat-shortened start, so he will be a top option this week, provided he makes his scheduled start. | ||||
| 14 | Josh Johnson | @MIL (Wolf) | N/A | Nine quality starts in last 10 tries |
| Ever since a rocky start to the year, Johnson has been remarkably steady, avoiding walks and extra-base hits. | ||||
| 15 | Gio Gonzalez | COL (Francis) | N/A | 2.42 home ERA |
| Gonzalez should have a good week, facing a Rockies team that is one of the majors' worst in getting on base in away games. | ||||
| 16 | Ian Kennedy | SD (Marquis) | N/A | 45 Ks over last 44 1/3 innings |
| After posting an unimpressive strikeout rate over his first nine starts, Kennedy has taken it up a notch, and he's been whittling down his ERA in the process. | ||||
| 17 | C.J. Wilson | BAL (Matusz) | N/A | Opponents' .260 SLG, last eight starts |
| Wilson's command has slipped this season, but an aversion to extra-base hits has helped him to limit the damage done by excessive walks and increased contact. | ||||
| 18 | Chris Sale | TEX (Oswalt) | TOR (Cecil) | 6 Ks or more in seven of last eight starts |
| In striking out five Twins on Wednesday, Sale broke a string of seven straight starts with half a dozen Ks or more. | ||||
| 19 | James Shields | NYY (Nova) | @CLE (McAllister) | .332 BABIP |
| With an exploding ground ball rate and stable stat trends otherwise, Shields should be enjoying another strong season, and with a BABIP reduction likely on the way, that should be the case going forward. | ||||
| 20 | A.J. Burnett | HOU (Harrell) | SF (Lincecum) | 1.11 home ERA |
| Burnett has enjoyed pitcher-friendly PNC Park so far, holding opponents to a .224 slugging percentage there. | ||||
| 21 | Jordan Zimmermann | SF (Lincecum) | COL (Friedrich) | Opponents' .199 Avg. on grounders |
| Zimmermann has become much more of a ground ball pitcher this year, and he's enjoying the perks of his rangy middle infield. | ||||
| 22 | Yovani Gallardo | @HOU (Happ) | N/A | 3 HRs allowed in 37 career innings at HOU |
| Gallardo has been able to keep the ball in Minute Maid Park, which has helped him to establish a career 2.68 ERA there. | ||||
| 23 | Yu Darvish | MIN (Hendriks) | N/A | 1.74 ground ball-to-flyball ratio, last three starts |
| Darvish has yet to establish consistency, but in his most recent stretch, he has been throwing strikes and getting grounders in bunches. | ||||
| 24 | Jason Hammel | @SEA (Iwakuma) | @LAA (Weaver) | 3.08 road ERA |
| Hammel has actually been more homer-prone away from Camden Yards, but that trend shouldn't continue with visits to Seattle and Anaheim. | ||||
| 25 | Cliff Lee | @NYM (Dickey) | N/A | 52 percent flyball rate, last four starts |
| Lee has been hit hard lately, as he has had an unusually difficult time keeping the ball down, though his ability to throw strikes has remained intact. | ||||
| 26 | David Price | NYY (Phelps) | N/A | Career 4.03 ERA vs. NYY |
| Price has earned must-start status, but between his mediocre history against the Yankees and his tight back, he should not be considered a top 25 option for this week. | ||||
| 27 | Vance Worley | @NYM (Niese) | ATL (Jurrjens) | 23 percent called strike rate |
| Worley gets very few whiffs, but owners can count on him as a reliable source of strikeouts, due to his proven ability to catch batters looking. | ||||
| 28 | Jake Peavy | TOR (Laffey) | N/A | 3.56 home ERA |
| Peavy is a top 15 starter in both standard Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats, but with one start at home against the powerful Blue Jays, owners shouldn't view him as a No. 2 SP this week. | ||||
| 29 | Adam Wainwright | COL (Friedrich) | N/A | 1 HR allowed in 10 starts prior to Fri. |
| Maybe it was the 101-degree heat in St. Louis on Friday, but the two homers he allowed to the Pirates were a rarity for him. | ||||
| 30 | Doug Fister | MIN (Hendriks) | KC (Chen) | 2.22 career ERA at Comerica Park |
| Fister got crushed in Texas on Wednesday, but he has been consistently sharp when pitching in Detroit. He gets a pair of good matchups there this week. | ||||
| 31 | Ryan Vogelsong | @PIT (McDonald) | N/A | 17 percent line drive rate since 2011 |
| Despite a mediocre strikeout rate, batters have a hard time getting hits against Vogelsong, as contact tends to be of the weak variety. | ||||
| 32 | Jon Lester | @OAK (Colon) | NYY (Nova) | 38 Ks, 5 BBs over last 40 1/3 innings |
| As Lester has improved his command, he has become more consistent and is going deeper into games. | ||||
| 33 | Matt Garza | @ATL (Minor) | N/A | Five quality starts in last six tries |
| Spotty run support has obscured the fact that Garza has been consistently solid, if not spectacular, over the past month. | ||||
| 34 | Mat Latos | @SD (Volquez) | N/A | 16 percent swinging strike rate, last two starts |
| Owners could have dismissed last Monday's complete-game whiff-fest against the not-so-selective Brewers, but he went the distance again versus a Giants team that hits for contact. | ||||
| 35 | Anibal Sanchez | @MIL (Estrada) | @STL (Kelly) | 59 percent strand rate in June (per Fangraphs.com) |
| Sanchez has not been as effective as usual this past month, but he has also been hurt by an uncharacteristically low strand rate. | ||||
| 36 | Dan Haren | @CLE (McAllister) | BAL (Chen) | 13 percent home run per flyball ratio, last four starts |
| Long balls have been killing Haren, but he has been coughing them up at a rate much higher than his longer-term norms. | ||||
| 37 | Matt Moore | NYY (Garcia) | @CLE (Jimenez) | 12 percent popup rate |
| On the rare occasions when hitters make contact against Moore, they frequently hit weak flies that don't leave the infield. | ||||
| 38 | Jonathon Niese | PHI (Worley) | CHC (Volstad) | 5 BBs in last 33 1/3 innings |
| Niese has followed up a wild May with a virtually walk-free June in which he has thrown 68 percent of his pitches for strikes. | ||||
| 39 | Hiroki Kuroda | @BOS (Beckett) | N/A | Opponents' .202 Avg over last seven starts |
| Kuroda has been either missing bats or inducing weak contact in his recent run of starts, which has included some solid offenses. | ||||
| 40 | Justin Masterson | TB (Cobb) | N/A | Opponents' .294 SLG at home |
| As it is, the Rays have one of the lowest slugging percentages in the AL, but they could have an especially long day against Masterson at Progressive Field. | ||||
| 41 | Tommy Hanson | CHC (Samardzija) | @PHI (Blanton) | Career 2.93 ERA vs. PHI |
| Hanson has been inconsistent this season, but the schedule should help him in Week 14. He has been especially successful at Citizens Bank Park, where he has posted a 1.20 ERA in three starts. | ||||
| 42 | Tim Hudson | @PHI (Hamels) | N/A | 0.4 HR/9 |
| Some pitchers have reason to fear the gopher ball when they visit Philadelphia, but Hudson's reliable ground ball tendencies make that risk minimal. | ||||
| 43 | Wade Miley | LAD (Eovaldi) | N/A | Seven percent home run-to-flyball ratio |
| Even after Saturday's slugfest at Milwaukee, Miley's home run rate could regress further, but it probably won't happen against the Dodgers. | ||||
| 44 | Josh Beckett | NYY (Kuroda) | N/A | Career 5.36 ERA vs. NYY |
| Because Beckett has been very good since mid-May, he deserves a chance this week, but his history against the Yankees prevents him from being a higher-end option. | ||||
| 45 | Jeremy Hellickson | @CLE (Tomlin) | N/A | Opponents' .305 OBP vs. lefties |
| Hellickson is handling lefties better this year, which will help him against the likes of Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Kipnis. He is expected to take the mound at Cleveland after taking a Prince Fielder shot off his right shin on Saturday. | ||||
| 46 | Max Scherzer | MIN (Blackburn) | KC (Teaford) | 1 HR allowed over last 26 innings |
| Granted, the schedule has done Scherzer some favors over his last four starts, but his recent hot streak has been supported by a higher ground ball rate. | ||||
| 47 | Ivan Nova | @TB (Shields) | @BOS (Lester) | Five quality starts in last seven tries |
| Nova had been unreliable over the first six weeks of the season, but he has since settled into a much more stable and productive pattern. | ||||
| 48 | Kyle Lohse | COL (Outman) | MIA (Zambrano) | .192 BABIP in June |
| Lohse has overperformed for the past month, but he still has enough skill to make these two matchups pay off for his Fantasy owners. | ||||
| 49 | Erik Bedard | SF (Zito) | N/A | 2.31 home ERA |
| Bedard has been a disappointment in recent weeks, but with a home start and a decent matchup, he is worth using in standard mixed leagues this time around. | ||||
| 50 | Trevor Bauer | SD (Cashner) | LAD (Capuano) | 12.1 K/9 over minor league career |
| Bauer's potential and favorable matchups make him a tantalizing choice, but his inexperience and groin injury limit him to lower-end status in standard mixed leagues for now. | ||||
| 51 | Lance Lynn | COL (Pomeranz) | N/A | No HRs allowed in nine of 16 starts |
| A recent dip in Lynn's ground ball rate is something to watch, but the longer-term trend shows that he can still be counted on to keep the ball in the park. | ||||
| 52 | Clayton Richard | @ARI (Cahill) | CIN (Bailey) | 24 Ks, 7 BBs in June |
| He won't help with strikeouts, but most of Richard's other rate stats (e.g., ground ball, line drive, strikes thrown, walk) have been impressive. | ||||
| 53 | Roy Oswalt | @CHW (Sale) | MIN (Blackburn) | .410 BABIP |
| Oswalt has deserved at least a decent WHIP over his first two starts and not his current 1.97 mark. Don't be scared off, as his peripherals have looked pretty good. | ||||
| 54 | Dillon Gee | CHC (Samardzija) | N/A | 3.52 xFIP |
| A 13 percent home run-to-flyball ratio is largely responsible for Gee's ERA residing in the mid-4.00s, and xFIP isn't buying it. Though he's been homer-prone before, Gee's ERA shouldn't be quite so high going forward. | ||||
| 55 | Bronson Arroyo | @SD (Wells) | N/A | 6.1 K/9 |
| Arroyo is enjoying his highest strikeout rate in four years, and now he gets to face one of the majors' most strikeout-prone squads. | ||||
| 56 | Matt Harrison | @CHW (Quintana) | N/A | Seven percent of plate appearances resulted in an extra-base hit since 2010 |
| Harrison's extra-base hit rate is consistently well below the major league average, and that will help him at U.S. Cellular Field. | ||||
| 57 | Jarrod Parker | BOS (Matsuzaka) | SEA (Millwood) | 63 percent strikes thrown, last three starts |
| Parker had been getting away with poor command for most of this season, but he is now throwing strikes at a respectable rate. | ||||
| 58 | Wei-Yin Chen | @SEA (Hernandez) | @LAA (Haren) | 3 HRs allowed in 40 2/3 road innings |
| Chen has been feeling the park effects of Orioles Park at Camden Yards, but homers shouldn't hurt him in the next two venues he's visiting. | ||||
| 59 | Trevor Cahill | SD (Richard) | LAD (Billingsley) | Opponents' .388 SLG vs. lefties |
| With these matchups, you might expect Cahill to rank higher, but he is less effective against left-handed hitters, and he will see a lot of them this week. | ||||
| 60 | Homer Bailey | @LAD (Billingsley) | @SD (Richard) | 4 HRs allowed in 164 at-bats against lefties |
| Unlike Cahill, the Dodgers' and Padres' lineups play into Bailey's strengths, and the pitcher-friendly venues will help as well. | ||||
| 61 | Mike Leake | @LAD (Harang) | N/A | 7 IP or more in five of last six starts |
| Leake has been helped out by the schedule makers over the past month, but then again, he can extend his hot streak against a Dodgers lineup that has been woeful. | ||||
| 62 | Tommy Milone | SEA (Ramirez) | N/A | .186 home BABIP |
| Milone has overperformed in his home starts, but he can still continue to be good enough to be used in them, thanks to the combination of his high popup rate and O.co Coliseum's large foul territory. | ||||
| 63 | Chris Capuano | CIN (Cueto) | @ARI (Bauer) | 1 BB over last 22 innings |
| Ever since suffering through a brief spell of wildness, Capuano has come back with a vengeance. Even so, a tough Diamondbacks' lineup could leave Capuano with merely decent results this week. | ||||
| 64 | Michael Fiers | MIA (Buehrle) | N/A | 21 percent called strike rate |
| Fiers is red-hot, not only because he has been getting his fair share of whiffs, but he is also getting batters to lay off pitches in the zone. | ||||
| 65 | Felix Doubront | NYY (Hughes) | N/A | .352 BABIP in June |
| June was a rough month for Doubront, and while weaker ground ball tendencies played a role, bad luck on balls in play may have been a factor, too. | ||||
| 66 | Chad Billingsley | CIN (Bailey) | @ARI (Cahill) | 11 percent swinging strike rate, last eight starts |
| Billingsley's command remains inconsistent, but he appears to be regaining his ability to get swings-and-misses. | ||||
| 67 | Wandy Rodriguez | MIL (Greinke) | N/A | 63 percent quality start rate |
| Now that batters are chasing Rodriguez's offerings -- especially outside the zone -- less often, he has been allowing more hits and delivering quality starts at a much lower rate. | ||||
| 68 | Edwin Jackson | SF (Bumgarner) | N/A | 3.29 home ERA |
| Owners can put Jackson's Thursday disaster at Coors Field behind them, as he will be safe to use with a home start against a power-deprived Giants lineup. | ||||
| 69 | Tim Lincecum | @WAS (Zimmermann) | @PIT (Burnett) | 9.9 K/9 |
| Lincecum's wildness makes him a risk to use in any given week, but his ability to get punch outs in combination with his upcoming start against the whiff-happy Pirates has some promise for owners. | ||||
| 70 | Jason Vargas | @OAK (Blackley) | N/A | 3.24 ERA at OAK since 2011 |
| Vargas should usually be avoided in weeks with road starts, but he has been good over his last four starts at O.co Coliseum. | ||||
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