Top 70 starters for Week 18
Early trades have cleared up some of the confusion owners might have faced regarding their rotations heading into Fantasy Week 18 (July 30-August 5). We now know Zack Greinke is an Angel, Wandy Rodriguez is a Pirate and Anibal Sanchez is a Tiger, so we can have confidence in knowing what their matchups will be for the coming scoring period.
We also know that Francisco Liriano is a member of the White Sox's rotation, but owners of Liriano and other members of Robin Ventura's rotation still have to deal with some uncertainty. As of this writing, Liriano's next start had not been scheduled, and it's not yet clear whether the White Sox will trade a starter, move one to the bullpen or stick with a six-man unit. For the purposes of this week's top 70, I have assumed Liriano will start Monday at Minnesota, the rest of the rotation will get bumped back a day and that a six-man rotation will be in play for now. Keep tabs on developments that could unfold before Monday's lineup deadline (first pitch is 7:05 p.m. ET), as the matchups for the White Sox's pitchers and their opponents could easily be different from those posted here.
As it stands, though, these are the 70 starting pitchers whom owners in standard mixed leagues will be able to trust for the week ahead.
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| Rank | Player | Start 1 | Start 2 | Stat of note |
| 1 | David Price | @OAK (Griffin) | BAL (Gonzalez) | 28 percent flyball rate |
| The A's have become a surprise power threat and they lead the majors in team flyball rate, but Price is boasting the lowest flyball rate of his career by far. | ||||
| 2 | Stephen Strasburg | PHI (Lee) | MIA (Nolasco) | 2 BBs or fewer in eight of last 10 starts |
| Not only does Strasburg's strikeout rate lead the majors, but he is also consistently stingy with free passes. | ||||
| 3 | Cliff Lee | @WAS (Strasburg) | ARI (Cahill) | 21 percent called strike rate |
| Though Lee's whiff rate is down this season, he continues to get nearly a strikeout per inning, because he remains one of the game's best at getting called strikes. | ||||
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | CHC (Maholm) | N/A | Opponents' .343 SLG vs. righties |
| Kershaw has actually been a little better at limiting extra-base hits against right-handed hitters, so he should be able to neutralize Alfonso Soriano as well as Anthony Rizzo. | ||||
| 5 | Madison Bumgarner | NYM (Hefner) | @COL (Francis) | Career 2.84 ERA at COL |
| Coors Field has presented few problems for Bumgarner, as he has allowed only a single earned run there over his two most recent starts. | ||||
| 6 | CC Sabathia | SEA (Millwood) | N/A | 49 Ks, 10 BBs over last 47 2/3 innings |
| Sabathia hasn't been going quite as deep into games lately, but he has still been outstanding for the most part, posting a 2.59 ERA over his six starts just prior to Saturday's outing against Boston. | ||||
| 7 | Justin Verlander | @BOS (Beckett) | N/A | 4 HRs allowed in 69 2/3 home innings |
| Verlander's mild flyball tendencies have hurt him in a few of his road starts, but he has been able to avoid homers at Comerica Park. | ||||
| 8 | Cole Hamels | @WAS (Detwiler) | N/A | 7.1 innings per start, last seven starts |
| Hamels has been unusually wild during this recent stretch, but he has been effectively so, as he continues to give his owners innings, strikeouts and a low ERA. | ||||
| 9 | Jered Weaver | @TEX (Oswalt) | @CHW (Humber) | 6.2 K/9 in road starts |
| Weaver not only allows more homers on the road, but he's a below-average strikeout pitcher as well. He can still be your ace for this week, but even with two starts, he's more of a borderline one. | ||||
| 10 | Jake Peavy | @MIN (Diamond) | N/A | 4.8 K/BB ratio vs. lefties |
| Peavy hasn't dominated lefties to the degree he has with righties, but he's limited them to a .299 on-base percentage due to a lack of walks. That will help against the Twins. | ||||
| 11 | Gio Gonzalez | MIA (Buehrle) | N/A | 9 Ks in six innings vs. MIA |
| Gonzalez stymied the Marlins' hitters in his start against them earlier this month, and they have been striking out a high pace in general over the last several weeks. | ||||
| 12 | Matt Cain | NYM (Niese) | N/A | 4.05 ERA over last seven starts |
| Cain's numbers have not been impressive since he tossed his perfect game, but most of the damage had been sustained in two aberrant performances (10 line drives allowed vs. CIN, three home runs allowed at PHI). | ||||
| 13 | R.A. Dickey | @SD (Richard) | N/A | .404 BABIP over last five appearances |
| Dickey has slogged through a disappointing July with a 6.49 ERA, even though he avoided contact at a good rate. Some bad luck on balls in play may have played a role. | ||||
| 14 | Chris Sale | LAA (Greinke) | N/A | 11 percent swinging strike rate, last two starts |
| Sale has had trouble with stranding runners over his last two starts, but he has actually taken his whiff rate up a notch. | ||||
| 15 | Johnny Cueto | SD (Ohlendorf) | N/A | 76 percent quality start rate since 2011 |
| Like Jered Weaver, Cueto can be used every week in every format despite a below-average strikeout rate due to his consistency and efficiency. | ||||
| 16 | Zack Greinke | @CHW (Sale) | N/A | 1.64 ERA at CHW, last three starts |
| For his first start back in the AL, Greinke gets a familiar foe and he will go to a venue where he has had success in his most recent starts. | ||||
| 17 | Felix Hernandez | @NYY (Kuroda) | N/A | Career 1.47 ERA at Yankee Stadium |
| Hernandez hasn't been getting much run support, but even at Yankee Stadium, owners can count on him to do everything possible to hold up his end of the bargain. | ||||
| 18 | Clay Buchholz | DET (Scherzer) | MIN (De Vries) | 7.1 K/9 over last eight starts |
| Over the past three years, Buchholz built his value by avoiding line drive base hits, but of late, he's just done a better job of avoiding contact altogether. | ||||
| 19 | Roy Halladay | ARI (Saunders) | N/A | 1.27 WHIP over last two starts |
| Since returning from the DL, Halladay's WHIP has not been up to par, but it hasn't been as awful as his 6.55 ERA. It's unlikely that he'll allow nearly half of his baserunners to score going forward, and his WHIP should improve as well. | ||||
| 20 | Mike Leake | SD (Volquez) | PIT (McDonald) | 4.46 ERA, last seven home starts |
| Home runs have spoiled many of Leake's home starts this season, and while the Pirates can pack a punch at the plate, the Padres have the third-fewest homers in the majors. | ||||
| 21 | Max Scherzer | @BOS (Buchholz) | CLE (Lowe) | 11 percent popup rate |
| Not only has Scherzer missed a lot more bats this season, but improved popup and line drive rates have made a real difference in his Fantasy value. | ||||
| 22 | Jordan Zimmermann | MIA (Johnson) | N/A | 72 percent strikes thrown, last four starts |
| Zimmermann's command just keeps getting better, as he has struck out 22 batters over his last 24 innings while walking only two. | ||||
| 23 | Adam Wainwright | MIL (Rogers) | N/A | 61 Ks over last 58 1/3 innings |
| Wainwright has really started to hit his stride, as he is now striking out batters at a rate that is even higher than his pre-Tommy John surgery norm. | ||||
| 24 | Ben Sheets | MIA (Zambrano) | N/A | 40 percent ground ball rate |
| Sheets may be fortunate to have not allowed a home run yet, but his luck could continue against the Marlins, who have left the park only 11 times over the last 15 days. | ||||
| 25 | Josh Johnson | @WAS (Zimmermann) | N/A | 1.19 WHIP in July |
| Johnson has fallen flat in Fantasy this past month, but most of his supporting stats have been strong. As his good WHIP suggests, he just needs to strand more runners, and his track record shows that he can. | ||||
| 26 | Yovani Gallardo | HOU (Keuchel) | N/A | 2 BBs over last 17 2/3 innings |
| Walks have been a problem at times for Gallardo, but he's been throwing strikes at a much higher rate over his last three starts. | ||||
| 27 | Roy Oswalt | LAA (Weaver) | @KC (Smith) | 10 percent swinging strike rate |
| The increase in Oswalt's K-rate appears to be legitimate, as he is getting more swings-and-misses than he did a season ago. | ||||
| 28 | C.J. Wilson | @TEX (Harrison) | N/A | Career 3.97 ERA at TEX |
| As a top 20 Fantasy starter, Wilson deserves to be used every week, but he has a long record of merely pedestrian production when pitching in Arlington, so he gets a downgrade this week. | ||||
| 29 | A.J. Burnett | @CHC (Dempster) | N/A | 20 Ks over last 28 1/3 innings |
| Burnett's strikeout pace has slowed down over his recent starts, but his improved control and stronger ground ball tendencies have made him a more effective pitcher this year, even without the Ks. | ||||
| 30 | Ian Kennedy | @PHI (Blanton) | N/A | 2.42 ERA over last three starts |
| Kennedy is no longer encumbered by the high BABIP that plagued him prior to the All-Star break, and we're once again seeing the Cy Young candidate who emerged last season. | ||||
| 31 | Mike Fiers | HOU (Lyles) | N/A | Seven straight quality starts |
| Though Fiers has overperformed during his quality start streak, he is good enough at avoiding contact and walks to be a must-start option in nearly all formats. | ||||
| 32 | A.J. Griffin | TB (Price) | TOR (Romero) | 29 percent called strike rate on curveballs |
| Griffin's upper-60s curveball is baffling hitters, who are frequently taking it for a called strike. That's helping him to maintain a decent strikeout rate without overwhelming stuff. | ||||
| 33 | Doug Fister | CLE (Jimenez) | N/A | 67 percent strikes thrown, last eight starts |
| Earlier this season, Fister's command was merely average, but now he is back to his extreme strike-throwing ways. | ||||
| 34 | Hiroki Kuroda | SEA (Hernandez) | N/A | 15 percent line drive rate |
| Kuroda's consistent avoidance of liners, along with his pinpoint control, allows him to post low ERAs and WHIPs every year, even though he's not especially averse to contact. | ||||
| 35 | Tommy Hanson | MIA (Buehrle) | HOU (Harrell) | 31 Ks over last 28 1/3 innings |
| Wildness has gotten the better of Hanson over his last three starts, but over a longer stretch, he has shown that he can still be relied upon to help with strikeouts. | ||||
| 36 | Anibal Sanchez | CLE (Masterson) | N/A | 2 ER in seven innings vs. CLE on May 19 |
| Sanchez had a rough debut for the Tigers, but the Indians should be an easier matchup than the Blue Jays, and he has had success against them already this year. | ||||
| 37 | Dan Haren | @TEX (Darvish) | N/A | Opponents' .182 Avg, last two starts |
| Since coming back from the DL, Haren has mostly avoided hard contact, looking much more like the pitcher he had been over the previous five seasons. | ||||
| 38 | Tommy Milone | TB (Shields) | TOR (Laffey) | 1 HR allowed in 59 2/3 home innings |
| Even in the likely event that Milone fails to maintain a sub-1.00 home ERA, he's been good enough at home that he is a must-start whenever he has a pair of outings at O.co Coliseum. | ||||
| 39 | James Shields | @OAK (Milone) | N/A | .403 BABIP over last six starts |
| Shields is getting Ks, avoiding walks and not even giving up too many homers, yet he has been saddled with a 5.80 ERA since June 28. It doesn't add up, and he's due for better things any time now. | ||||
| 40 | Francisco Liriano | @MIN (De Vries) | N/A | 5 BBs over last 16 2/3 innings |
| Liriano finally had a meltdown in his most recent start, but we can't blame the usual culprit: wildness. He's been throwing strikes at an above-average rate over his last three outings and could continue to do so when he opposes his former team this week. | ||||
| 41 | Jonathon Niese | @SF (Cain) | N/A | 7 quality starts in last 10 tries |
| When Niese has been bad, he has been awful, but far more often than not, he's been outstanding. | ||||
| 42 | Mat Latos | PIT (Rodriguez) | N/A | 15 percent called strike rate, last three starts |
| A lack of called strikes has put a damper on Latos' K-rate lately, but the free-swinging Pirates could help him to get back on track. | ||||
| 43 | Yu Darvish | LAA (Haren) | N/A | Opponents' .198 Avg vs. righties |
| Darvish has been shutting right-handed hitters down and that is going to make life tough for the top four batters in the Angels' order. | ||||
| 44 | Jon Lester | MIN (Deduno) | N/A | .204 flyball BABIP |
| Lester has a history of giving up a high rate of flyball base hits, and Fenway Park likely plays a role, but the Twins -- who have the majors' lowest flyball rate -- could give Lester a break from the trend. | ||||
| 45 | Ryan Dempster | PIT (Burnett) | N/A | Opponents' .479 SLG, last two starts |
| This may or may not be Dempster's matchup for the week, so I've gone a little conservative on the ranking. However, the 14 line drives and three homers he has allowed over his two most recent starts are also a bit concerning. | ||||
| 46 | Kyle Lohse | @COL (Francis) | MIL (Estrada) | 1 HR allowed in 21 career innings at COL |
| As a contact pitcher, Lohse is at risk with any visit to Coors Field, but he escaped his start there last season with just two runs over six innings. | ||||
| 47 | Ivan Nova | BAL (Tillman) | N/A | 3.38 ERA over last three home starts |
| Most of Nova's starts over the past two months have been on the road, but he's had a little more success at home during that span than he did earlier in the season. | ||||
| 48 | Chris Capuano | ARI (Miley) | N/A | 3.5 K/BB at home |
| Capuano's 1.64 home ERA isn't just about a lower home run rate; his strikeout and walk rates have also been better at Dodger Stadium. | ||||
| 49 | Mark Buehrle | @ATL (Hanson) | @WAS (Gonzalez) | 1.19 road WHIP |
| Buehrle has been homer-prone on the road, but his aversion to walks follows him wherever he goes, making him helpful with WHIP in any given start. | ||||
| 50 | Jeff Samardzija | @LAD (Billingsley) | N/A | 1.91 ERA in July |
| Samardzija just completed a highly successful month, but his most recent start, in which he walked six Cardinals, shows that he is still too erratic to view as a must-start in all formats. | ||||
| 51 | Josh Beckett | DET (Verlander) | MIN (Blackburn) | No home runs allowed over last 74 innings |
| Beckett's command has been erratic over the past month, but it's been two-and-a-half months since he last coughed up a home run, and a higher ground ball rate has played a role, albeit a small one. | ||||
| 52 | Clayton Richard | NYM (Dickey) | N/A | 1.14 home WHIP |
| Richard's last two home starts weren't very good, but his control is still sharp, and he can help with WHIP and innings. | ||||
| 53 | Matt Moore | BAL (Hunter) | N/A | 3.6 BB/9 at home |
| Moore has been much more effective in his home starts, as his walk rate has been much closer to normal at the Trop than at other venues. | ||||
| 54 | Trevor Cahill | @LAD (Harang) | @PHI (Lee) | 2.91 road ERA |
| Some of Cahill's success on the road is the result of BABIP fluctuations, but a substantially lower home run rate away from Chase Field has made a difference, too. | ||||
| 55 | Justin Masterson | @DET (Sanchez) | N/A | 17 double plays induced |
| Masterson gets himself into trouble with walks and sometimes has trouble stranding the runners he puts on, but he also gets out of jams by way of the double play. | ||||
| 56 | Jeremy Hellickson | BAL (Chen) | N/A | 11 percent popup rate in July |
| Hellickson isn't striking out very many hitters, but he has a 3.33 ERA for the month because he is back to getting oodles of easy flyball outs. | ||||
| 57 | Phil Hughes | BAL (Britton) | N/A | Seven innings or more in five of last six starts |
| Hughes is still too prone to giving up the long ball, but he's been effective enough overall that it's not knocking him out of games early. | ||||
| 58 | Mike Minor | MIA (Eovaldi) | N/A | 26 Ks, 4 BBs over last 27 1/3 innings |
| Minor has been hitting the strike zone with more consistency, and while he remains a home run risk, he should be safe to use against the anemic Marlins' offense. | ||||
| 59 | Ryan Vogelsong | @COL (Sanchez) | N/A | 1.0 HR/9 on the road since 2011 |
| Vogelsong has been more vulnerable to homers away from AT&T Park, so while he has generally been reliable on the road, he could find trouble in the thin air of Colorado. | ||||
| 60 | James McDonald | @CIN (Leake) | N/A | 29 percent flyball rate in July (per FanGraphs) |
| McDonald's recent struggles have been more about finding the strike zone than about flyball tendencies, so he has a chance to turn things around at Great American Ball Park. | ||||
| 61 | Tim Hudson | HOU (Galarraga) | N/A | .084 Isolated Power over last four starts |
| Hudson is getting very few strikeouts lately, but he is as good as ever at getting grounders and clamping down on extra-base hits. | ||||
| 62 | Derek Holland | LAA (Santana) | @KC (Hochevar) | Opponents' .347 SLG vs. lefties |
| Holland's mastery of lefties won't help him much against the Angels, but it should make for a long day for the Royals' Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and -- if he can play -- Mike Moustakas. | ||||
| 63 | Homer Bailey | SD (Marquis) | PIT (Bedard) | 34 Ks over last 37 2/3 innings |
| Bailey is often a risk to start at home, but he's been ratcheting up his strikeout rate. With the whiff-happy Padres and Pirates coming to town, owners should take advantage of the matchups. | ||||
| 64 | Marco Estrada | HOU (Norris) | @STL (Lohse) | 41 Ks over last 31 2/3 innings |
| Estrada may be the new Max Scherzer, offering owners strikeouts by the bushel, but also potentially putting the ERA category at risk. He's worth the gamble with an upcoming matchup against the Astros. | ||||
| 65 | Wade Miley | @LAD (Capuano) | N/A | Opponents' .307 OBP, last three starts |
| Miley was in a brief lull prior to the All-Star break, but ever since, he has been back on his game. In addition to exhibiting great control, he has been bumping up his whiff rate. | ||||
| 66 | Aaron Harang | ARI (Cahill) | CHC (Garza) | Opponents' .203 Avg, last six starts |
| It's unlikely that Harang can continue to limit base hits at his recent rate, but he's been in a legitimate groove, popping up batters on nearly one of every six hit balls over the last five weeks. | ||||
| 67 | Erik Bedard | @CHC (Germano) | @CIN (Bailey) | 21 percent called strike rate |
| Bedard's average fastball velocity has fallen below 90 mph this year, but an increase in his called strike rate has helped him to remain a strikeout pitcher. | ||||
| 68 | Jason Vargas | TOR (Laffey) | N/A | 1.65 ERA over last six starts |
| Vargas has played exclusively in pitcher-friendly parks during his hot streak, but he can extend it with a start at Safeco Field in Week 18. | ||||
| 69 | Jarrod Parker | TB (Cobb) | N/A | 2.28 home ERA |
| Parker has stumbled in recent weeks, but a home start against a power-starved Rays club should make for a productive week. | ||||
| 70 | Lance Lynn | @COL (Friedrich) | N/A | 1.19 GB/FB ratio, last seven starts |
| Lynn was having a good month before Friday's blowup at Wrigley Field, but the combination of a recent decrease in grounders and a trip to Coors Field makes him a risky play for the coming week. | ||||
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