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Reality Check: LaRoche owns the second half

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Adam LaRoche's three-homer weekend wasn't your average three-homer weekend -- and not just because it came from Adam LaRoche, a never-been All-Star who's known more as a stopgap in Fantasy than someone who'll carry your team from week to week.

It's not because he accomplished it with two homers in one game, which is pretty much standard fare for three-homer weekends. It's not because his team played a doubleheader one day, which I'll admit is almost cheating but am prepared to overlook. It's not even because it's part of a longer, 14-game hot streak in which he's hit .442 (23 for 52) with seven home runs, though those numbers only further the point.

It's because it signals the continuation of a pattern that probably hasn't gotten enough attention for as much good as it could do Fantasy owners -- a part of his profile that distinguishes him from just about every player in the game.

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He owns the second half.

I don't mean that, over the course of his career, the numbers have broken down in a way that reveals a slight uptick in production after the All-Star break. I mean he owns it, the way Michael Phelps owns the water or lettuce owns salad.

"Yeah, but ..."

Nuh-uh. Don't even try to throw out comparables. I'll shoot 'em down as quickly as you prop 'em up.

Tim Lincecum? I know what you're thinking. His 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in the first half compared to 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in the second half suggests his last five starts, four of which fall under the category of "retro Lincecum," are positively legit.

Maybe they are and maybe they aren't, but the splits aren't the explanation why. Remove this year's first half, when he posted a 6.42 ERA, and his career mark for that period drops to 3.00, which isn't so far off from 2.93.

Nick Markakis? I'll admit I fell for his charms as well, stating in the most recent Hit Parade that "with a career .303 batting average and .852 OPS in the second half, he could be poised for a strong finish."

Disgusting.

First of all, he has a career .288 batting average and .790 OPS in the first half, so it's not like the splits are all that extreme. Plus, the gap that does exist is mostly the result of his rookie and sophomore seasons way back in 2006 and 2007, when he hit a combined .274 in the first half and .318 in the second half. Remove them from the equation, and he's pretty much the exact same player in each of the two halves.

Ryan Howard? Sure, he had a stretch earlier in his career when he'd save his best for last, but in each the last two seasons, he has taken a significant step back after the All-Star break, his batting average dropping from .257 in the first half to .248 in the second half last year and from .294 to .248 in 2010. Sorry, but whatever trend exists there isn't enough to make me jump.

What those three lack with their first- and second-half splits is reliability. If you could say with 100 percent assurance that they'd significantly improve their production over the final two months, you could go the extra mile to land them in a trade. That's not to say you shouldn't trade for them. All three are buy-low candidates, to a certain extent. It's just that the splits aren't the reason why.

And that split in particular is rarely the reason why. Sure, you could go to any player's splits page, pick out a situation in which he excels and make predictions based on it, but correlation doesn't always imply causation. Not all splits carry the same weight. Righty-lefty? Sure, I think we can all agree a player's projected performance changes with the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Home-away? Given that every ballpark has different measurements and environmental effects, yeah, the numbers should change based on location. First half-second half? That's a matter of timing, and timing is something you can't predict, which is why you see so many anomalies for so many of these supposed "second-half players."

But in LaRoche's case, the timing has become too consistent to ignore. Since 2006, his numbers have always been better in the second half, and usually be a significant margin. We're talking a 50-point increase in batting average and a 100-point increase in OPS. It's like the All-Star break is the full moon that transforms him into a werewolf when normally he's just some dude who likes to fish.

Over his career, it's added up to a .297 batting average and .896 OPS in the second half compared to .247 and .768 OPS in the first.

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Again, he owns it.

That's the difference between David Wright and David DeJesus. That's the difference between Kevin Mitchell and Kevin Maas. That's the difference between Mickey Mantle and Mickey Morandini. OK, maybe that last one's a stretch. But it's big, it's predictable, and it's happening again right now.

Considering LaRoche is still unowned in 10 percent of leagues, you might be able to get him for free in yours, and if not, considering he's still just the 12th-ranked first baseman in standard Head-to-Head leagues (even with that big weekend), you at least might be able to get him for cheap. No one's suggesting you give up Albert Pujols for him -- you lose the benefit of the splits if you have to pay for them -- but if you dangle a fifth starting pitcher (like Wade Miley or Phil Hughes) or third outfielder (like Alejandro De Aza or B.J. Upton) for LaRoche, perhaps even making his owner think he's selling high on him, you might just get a bite.

And in the process, you might just land someone who'll carry your team from week to week, All-Star or not.

In the now ... A look at how recent events have impacted certain players' Fantasy value

Doug Fister, SP, Tigers: Over his first 11 starts, when he was plagued by rib and oblique injuries, Fister had a 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Over his last five starts, he has a 1.62 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He's gone at least seven innings in all of them and at least eight in three. That's the definition of ace, and it's pretty much what Fister was after coming over from the Mariners last year, posting a 0.65 ERA, 0.61 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings in his final eight appearances (seven starts). So did lightning strike twice, or is it possible that, at less than 100 percent, Fister's normally impeccable command was just a shade off? Well, which is more likely? If a once-in-a-lifetime hot streak happens twice in a lifetime, it's probably just a typical hot streak, in which case Fister is far more dangerous than Fantasy owners have been led to believe. Chances are he's worth whatever you'd have to pay for him on the trade market right now.

Howard Kendrick, 2B/OF, Angels: Over his last seven games, Kendrick is batting .407 (11 for 27). Pretty impressive, right? OK then, why does he rank 29th among second basemen in Head-to-Head leagues during that stretch? You see the problem there? Even at his hottest, Kendrick isn't productive enough to measure up at one of the weaker positions in Fantasy, which begs the question: Why is he still owned in 75 percent of leagues? He was plenty productive last year, yeah, but he also about doubled his previous career high with 18 home runs. He has only five this year. It's not happening again. With a nonexistent walk rate and minimal base-stealing ability, Kendrick was walking a fine line in terms of mixed-league relevance. Any slippage in power would cause him to plummet in the rankings, as has happened to Alexei Ramirez this year. Maybe if he was the perennial batting title contender he projected to be in the minors, he could survive it, but now seven years into his major-league career, that ship has already sailed. Time to move on to bigger and better things.

Ben Revere, OF, Twins: Fantasy owners already knew Revere was a base-stealer, but given his disappointing .267 batting average and pathetic .619 OPS as a rookie last year, they couldn't see the potential for him to be anything more. But this is a guy who Baseball America ranked as its 59th-best prospect entering 2009 -- a guy who compiled a .326 batting average over six minor-league seasons. Quite simply, this is a guy who can hit. Not for power, no, but given his .323 batting average to date, he should clearly stand out from the Rajai Davises or even the Coco Crisps of the world. And if you break down the numbers, he does. Since taking over as the Twins' regular right fielder on May 19, he's the 16th-ranked outfielder in Head-to-Head leagues -- ahead of notables Adam Jones, Jason Heyward and Jay Bruce -- and if you project his 27 steals in 73 games over a 162-game schedule, he'd have 60. In terms of production, Revere ranks somewhere between Juan Pierre of 10 years ago and Michael Bourn today. Shouldn't he in terms of value as well?

Ryan Dempster, SP, Rangers: Unfortunately, Dempster's disastrous start Thursday in which he allowed eight earned runs in 4 2/3 innings is probably a sign of things to come with the Rangers. His 2.25 ERA in 16 starts with the Cubs was already destined to rise, both because of the law of averages and because both his velocity and strikeout rate are as low as they've been since he revived his career by moving back to the starting rotation in 2008. Of course, if he had stayed put, the regression to the mean probably would have taken him from stellar to mediocre in terms of Fantasy value, but his move to the tougher league and an exaggerated hitter's park will only amplify the effect, taking him from stellar to ugly in terms of Fantasy value. You might want to salvage what you can on the trade market and move on with your life.

Michael McKenry, C, Pirates: McKenry isn't technically the starting catcher in Pittsburgh, which makes him awfully hard to recommend as a starting catcher in Fantasy. But you know what helps? A .397 (27 for 68) batting average, eight home runs and 1.272 OPS in his last 22 games. Granted, those 22 games have been spread out over the course of six weeks, but the Pirates have begun to take notice, starting McKenry in four of their last seven games. And the production has continued with two home runs during that stretch. McKenry wasn't exactly a stud in waiting during his minor-league career, but he did have a 20-homer season and accumulated a .357 on-base percentage in six seasons overall. Rod Barajas brings a lot to the Pirates defensively, but if the offensive contributions are that far apart, at some point the defense has to take a back seat. McKenry is already worth adding in two-catcher leagues, and if the increase in playing time continues, his value will only rise from there.

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Down the line ... A brief update on some of the minor-leaguers or prospects who have caught the attention of Fantasy owners

Moises Sierra, OF, Blue Jays: Sierra didn't appear on any of the top prospect lists this spring, and chances are he's not a superstar in the making. But his power breakthrough at Double-A last year carried over to Triple-A this year, earning him a promotion to the majors last week. If it was just to occupy a spot on the bench, you could quickly dismiss Sierra as another statistical curiosity whose minor-league numbers were never meant to lead to bigger and better things, a la Ryan Langerhans or Travis Ishikawa. But the Blue Jays seem at least halfway interested in trying him out, starting him in three of their last six games. Sierra doesn't have great plate discipline, but his other numbers suggest he could be another Torii Hunter (at least offensively) if everything breaks his way.

Dan Straily, SP, Athletics: Speaking of minor-leaguers left off the top prospect lists, all this talk of Straily being elite now that he's in the majors seems a little overblown considering neither Baseball America nor John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com even included him on their midseason lists. Yeah, his numbers are fantastic -- he led all of professional baseball in strikeouts at the time of his promotion -- but he wouldn't be the first to dominate minor-leaguers and then struggle at the next level. See Liam Hendriks or Eric Surkamp. He also wouldn't be the first late-bloomer to catch the prospect gurus by surprise. See Brandon Beachy or even Mike Fiers this year. Clearly, Straily still has something to prove that goes beyond just the numbers. He's worth a flier for sure, but keep your expectations in check.

Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals: Taveras has been a subject of debate recently, with some in St. Louis speculating that he could be on his way to the majors to replace Jon Jay in center field. It seems a bit farfetched considering he only recently turned 20 and has yet to play a game above Double-A, but the proliferation of those rumors in spite of the obvious detractions shows just how talented Taveras is. Despite being younger than most of his peers, he leads the Texas League with a .320 batting average and ranks third with a .567 slugging percentage. He has just 12 more strikeouts than walks, averaging about one per eight at-bats, which is especially impressive for a young power hitter. Even if he's not up this year, he will be next year. He's the kind of player you'll want to lock up in advance in long-term keeper leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Rangers' Choo working through some major offensive struggles
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:27 am ET) It doesn't matter where Rangers outfielder Shin-Soo Choo bats in the lineup these days -- he still can't buy a hit

Choo, who was dropped to seventh in the batting order Saturday, went 0 for 4 on Monday against Seattle, extending his hitless slump to 20 at-bats. He last got a hit April 19.

"You watch him and he's definitely not getting the desired results," manager Jeff Banister said of Choo, per MLB.com. "It's been a challenge for Choo this month. He continues to work. He continues to study."

Choo is batting .096 (5 for 52), which is a league-low among qualified hitters. His only multihit game came on April 9. 

"This is a guy that has proven to be a professional hitter, lifetime .290 hitter, this is a guy that we believe in what he's going to be," Banister said. "This has been a tough stretch for him."


Astros OF Colby Rasmus thriving on the road in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:13 am ET) Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus has been a different hitter on the road than at home in 2015. Through 17 games, he is batting .067 (1 for 15) with no home runs or RBI at home, while he is batting .350 (14 for 40) with one triple, three doubles, three home runs and seven RBI on the road.

Rasmus is batting .345 (10 for 29) with four multihit games, two doubles, two home runs and five RBI through seven games on the team's current road trip.

"I say in the last homestand I was just seeing some things and feeling my way through what was going on with my swing and where I needed to be, and in this road trip I've been able to make some adjustments on what I felt I needed to do and they helped me a lot," he said, per MLB.com. "Yeah, I feel good about it, just battling."


Rockies' Weiss expects Tyler Matzek to make next start
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:07 am ET) Rockies manager Tyler Matzek said he was just suffering from cramping Monday when he came out of his team's 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks prematurely due to a hamstring injury, MLB.com reports.

"It was just cramping up," Weiss said. "It cramped up on a few of those warmup pitches and on the first pitch of that inning, and I didn't want to push it."

Manager Walt Weiss considers the injury a short-term issue and expects it won't keep Matzek from pitching later this week in San Diego.

"Yeah, he'll make his next start," Weiss said. "I expect him to make his next start."

Matzek moved to 2-0 with his win Monday and owns a 2.70 ERA and 13:13 K:BB ratio in 20 innings over his first four starts.


Dodgers' Mattingly: 'We're going to have to find at-bats for' Guerrero
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:00 am ET) Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said after Monday's game that the team has to find more playing time for infielder/outfielder Alex Guerrero after the rookie's hot start, the Los Angeles Times reports.

"We're going to have to find at-bats for Alex the way he is swinging," Mattingly said.

Mattingly said that Guerrero could play at shortstop, third base and left field. He may start to see extended action in left field if Carl Crawford, who is dealing with an injury to his side, has to go on the disabled list. Guerrero is 11 for 22 with five home runs and 13 RBI in 11 appearances.


Dodgers to evaluate LF Carl Crawford Tuesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:55 am ET) Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said after Monday's game that left fielder Carl Crawford will be evaluated Tuesday after coming out of the game with pain in his right side, the Los Angeles Times reports.

Mattlingly added that the issue "sounds like" an oblique injury, which typically take about a month to heal. That timetable would likely land the outfielder on the disabled list.

"Historically, things like that don't really go away overnight," Mattingly said. "But we've got to give it a shot."

If Crawford does need a trip to the disabled list, it would be his fifth stint in four years, all for injuries to different parts of the body. He has hit .245/.260/.408 with one home run, three RBI and one stolen base in 49 at-bats.


Astros OF George Springer swipes three bases Monday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:42 am ET) Astros outfielder George Springer didn't have a hit or RBI on Monday against the Padres. However, he still found a way to make an impact in a 9-4 win.

Springer drew three walks Monday and had a career-high three stolen bases. He had never had more than one stolen base in a game prior to Monday. He also finished with two runs and two strikeouts.

Springer, who is 7 of 8 in stolen-base attempts this season, is batting .235 (8 for 34) with a .500 slugging percentage, .872 OPS, two home runs, three doubles, four RBI, eight runs, eight walks, 12 strikeouts and five stolen bases in his last nine games.


Mets recall Rafael Montero from Triple-A Las Vegas
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:33 am ET) The Mets recalled pitcher Rafael Montero from Triple-A Las Vegas Tuesday.

Montero will make his first start of the season Tuesday in Miami after opening the season in the bullpen and being send down to the minors to prepare for a starting role. He is expected to stick in the rotation, as the team will turn to a six-man rotation temporarily to help reduce the workload on Matt Harvey's arm.

Montero struggled in two Triple-A starts, giving up six runs (five earned) in 7 2/3 innings but racking up seven strikeouts against only one walk.


Astros not ready to promote Preston Tucker, but is on team's radar
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:13 am ET) Astros outfield prospect Preston Tucker is off to a torrid start for Triple-A Fresno. The 24-year-old outfielder is batting .338 with a .689 slugging percentage, eight home runs and a minor-league leading 26 RBI in 18 games. 

Still, the Astros opted to promote L.J. Hoes on Monday to occupy a spot on the bench instead of Tucker, despite his hot start to the season.

“Tuck’s in the time of his career where he he’s trying to get himself noticed and he wants to be the next guy called up,” manager A.J. Hinch said, per the Houston Chronicle. “And right now our outfield’s playing very well. (Jake) Marisnick obviously is playing the best in the outfield on both sides of the ball. George Springer’s obviously a big part of our future and our present. (Colby) Rasmus is playing well.

“So I think it’s difficult for any of these young guys to break in. And when you have a good roster that you’re comfortable with, it’s even harder. But that doesn’t mean that their time wouldn’t come based on injury or based on extreme performance, and Tuck’s being very noticed with what he’s doing down at Triple-A.”


Cubs' Epstein: Starlin Castro is 'playing really good baseball'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:03 am ET) Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein praised shortstop Starlin Castro before Monday's 4-0 win over the Pirates, saying the shortstop is "playing really good baseball," MLB.com reports.

"I've always thought Starlin was a really, really good player,'' Epstein said. "His defense took a big step forward last year and he's carried it over into this year. He gets a little chance to hide in the lineup now. He doesn't have to be the focal point for the opposition. He's playing really good baseball on both sides. I'm proud of him.''

Manager Joe Maddon, who is Castro's fifth manager over the last six seasons, agrees.

"He's been really good,'' Maddon said. "I mean really good.''

Maddon added that Castro has taken a leadership role with Jorge Soler and the team's other young Latin players, helping them feel welcome at Wrigley Field and elsewhere.

"His interaction with them is really taking on the form of a veteran leadership kind of thing,'' Maddon said. "Right now, I can't say enough good things about the guy. I've been really impressed.''

Castro went 1 for 4 Monday and owns a .324/.351/.419 line with two home runs, 11 RBI and one stolen base in 74 at-bats.


Cubs' Addison Russell singles, scores run in Wrigley debut
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:55 am ET) Cubs rookie second baseman Addison Russell made his debut at Wrigley Field Monday, going 1 for 3 with a single and a run scored in his team's 4-0 win over the Pirates.

"It's great to have them here to watch me play on the big stage," Russell said of his parents, Wayne and Milany Russell, per MLB.com. "It's kind of humbling to remember where you came from. It's kind of like a warm feeling. They helped me get to this point. I'm glad they're here."

Manger Joe Maddon cautioned the need to be patient with Russell, who played just 14 games at Triple-A and was working on his footwork with infield coach Gary Jones before the game then committed a fielding error Monday night.

"You've got to put your scout's cap on and visualize what this could look like," Maddon said. "Once he can really exhale and just catch his breath, he'll start hitting the baseball."

Russell is just 4 for 25 with two doubles, four RBI and 13 strikeouts in six games.


 
 
 
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