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Reality Check: LaRoche owns the second half

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Adam LaRoche's three-homer weekend wasn't your average three-homer weekend -- and not just because it came from Adam LaRoche, a never-been All-Star who's known more as a stopgap in Fantasy than someone who'll carry your team from week to week.

It's not because he accomplished it with two homers in one game, which is pretty much standard fare for three-homer weekends. It's not because his team played a doubleheader one day, which I'll admit is almost cheating but am prepared to overlook. It's not even because it's part of a longer, 14-game hot streak in which he's hit .442 (23 for 52) with seven home runs, though those numbers only further the point.

It's because it signals the continuation of a pattern that probably hasn't gotten enough attention for as much good as it could do Fantasy owners -- a part of his profile that distinguishes him from just about every player in the game.

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He owns the second half.

I don't mean that, over the course of his career, the numbers have broken down in a way that reveals a slight uptick in production after the All-Star break. I mean he owns it, the way Michael Phelps owns the water or lettuce owns salad.

"Yeah, but ..."

Nuh-uh. Don't even try to throw out comparables. I'll shoot 'em down as quickly as you prop 'em up.

Tim Lincecum? I know what you're thinking. His 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in the first half compared to 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in the second half suggests his last five starts, four of which fall under the category of "retro Lincecum," are positively legit.

Maybe they are and maybe they aren't, but the splits aren't the explanation why. Remove this year's first half, when he posted a 6.42 ERA, and his career mark for that period drops to 3.00, which isn't so far off from 2.93.

Nick Markakis? I'll admit I fell for his charms as well, stating in the most recent Hit Parade that "with a career .303 batting average and .852 OPS in the second half, he could be poised for a strong finish."

Disgusting.

First of all, he has a career .288 batting average and .790 OPS in the first half, so it's not like the splits are all that extreme. Plus, the gap that does exist is mostly the result of his rookie and sophomore seasons way back in 2006 and 2007, when he hit a combined .274 in the first half and .318 in the second half. Remove them from the equation, and he's pretty much the exact same player in each of the two halves.

Ryan Howard? Sure, he had a stretch earlier in his career when he'd save his best for last, but in each the last two seasons, he has taken a significant step back after the All-Star break, his batting average dropping from .257 in the first half to .248 in the second half last year and from .294 to .248 in 2010. Sorry, but whatever trend exists there isn't enough to make me jump.

What those three lack with their first- and second-half splits is reliability. If you could say with 100 percent assurance that they'd significantly improve their production over the final two months, you could go the extra mile to land them in a trade. That's not to say you shouldn't trade for them. All three are buy-low candidates, to a certain extent. It's just that the splits aren't the reason why.

And that split in particular is rarely the reason why. Sure, you could go to any player's splits page, pick out a situation in which he excels and make predictions based on it, but correlation doesn't always imply causation. Not all splits carry the same weight. Righty-lefty? Sure, I think we can all agree a player's projected performance changes with the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Home-away? Given that every ballpark has different measurements and environmental effects, yeah, the numbers should change based on location. First half-second half? That's a matter of timing, and timing is something you can't predict, which is why you see so many anomalies for so many of these supposed "second-half players."

But in LaRoche's case, the timing has become too consistent to ignore. Since 2006, his numbers have always been better in the second half, and usually be a significant margin. We're talking a 50-point increase in batting average and a 100-point increase in OPS. It's like the All-Star break is the full moon that transforms him into a werewolf when normally he's just some dude who likes to fish.

Over his career, it's added up to a .297 batting average and .896 OPS in the second half compared to .247 and .768 OPS in the first.

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Again, he owns it.

That's the difference between David Wright and David DeJesus. That's the difference between Kevin Mitchell and Kevin Maas. That's the difference between Mickey Mantle and Mickey Morandini. OK, maybe that last one's a stretch. But it's big, it's predictable, and it's happening again right now.

Considering LaRoche is still unowned in 10 percent of leagues, you might be able to get him for free in yours, and if not, considering he's still just the 12th-ranked first baseman in standard Head-to-Head leagues (even with that big weekend), you at least might be able to get him for cheap. No one's suggesting you give up Albert Pujols for him -- you lose the benefit of the splits if you have to pay for them -- but if you dangle a fifth starting pitcher (like Wade Miley or Phil Hughes) or third outfielder (like Alejandro De Aza or B.J. Upton) for LaRoche, perhaps even making his owner think he's selling high on him, you might just get a bite.

And in the process, you might just land someone who'll carry your team from week to week, All-Star or not.

In the now ... A look at how recent events have impacted certain players' Fantasy value

Doug Fister, SP, Tigers: Over his first 11 starts, when he was plagued by rib and oblique injuries, Fister had a 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Over his last five starts, he has a 1.62 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He's gone at least seven innings in all of them and at least eight in three. That's the definition of ace, and it's pretty much what Fister was after coming over from the Mariners last year, posting a 0.65 ERA, 0.61 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings in his final eight appearances (seven starts). So did lightning strike twice, or is it possible that, at less than 100 percent, Fister's normally impeccable command was just a shade off? Well, which is more likely? If a once-in-a-lifetime hot streak happens twice in a lifetime, it's probably just a typical hot streak, in which case Fister is far more dangerous than Fantasy owners have been led to believe. Chances are he's worth whatever you'd have to pay for him on the trade market right now.

Howard Kendrick, 2B/OF, Angels: Over his last seven games, Kendrick is batting .407 (11 for 27). Pretty impressive, right? OK then, why does he rank 29th among second basemen in Head-to-Head leagues during that stretch? You see the problem there? Even at his hottest, Kendrick isn't productive enough to measure up at one of the weaker positions in Fantasy, which begs the question: Why is he still owned in 75 percent of leagues? He was plenty productive last year, yeah, but he also about doubled his previous career high with 18 home runs. He has only five this year. It's not happening again. With a nonexistent walk rate and minimal base-stealing ability, Kendrick was walking a fine line in terms of mixed-league relevance. Any slippage in power would cause him to plummet in the rankings, as has happened to Alexei Ramirez this year. Maybe if he was the perennial batting title contender he projected to be in the minors, he could survive it, but now seven years into his major-league career, that ship has already sailed. Time to move on to bigger and better things.

Ben Revere, OF, Twins: Fantasy owners already knew Revere was a base-stealer, but given his disappointing .267 batting average and pathetic .619 OPS as a rookie last year, they couldn't see the potential for him to be anything more. But this is a guy who Baseball America ranked as its 59th-best prospect entering 2009 -- a guy who compiled a .326 batting average over six minor-league seasons. Quite simply, this is a guy who can hit. Not for power, no, but given his .323 batting average to date, he should clearly stand out from the Rajai Davises or even the Coco Crisps of the world. And if you break down the numbers, he does. Since taking over as the Twins' regular right fielder on May 19, he's the 16th-ranked outfielder in Head-to-Head leagues -- ahead of notables Adam Jones, Jason Heyward and Jay Bruce -- and if you project his 27 steals in 73 games over a 162-game schedule, he'd have 60. In terms of production, Revere ranks somewhere between Juan Pierre of 10 years ago and Michael Bourn today. Shouldn't he in terms of value as well?

Ryan Dempster, SP, Rangers: Unfortunately, Dempster's disastrous start Thursday in which he allowed eight earned runs in 4 2/3 innings is probably a sign of things to come with the Rangers. His 2.25 ERA in 16 starts with the Cubs was already destined to rise, both because of the law of averages and because both his velocity and strikeout rate are as low as they've been since he revived his career by moving back to the starting rotation in 2008. Of course, if he had stayed put, the regression to the mean probably would have taken him from stellar to mediocre in terms of Fantasy value, but his move to the tougher league and an exaggerated hitter's park will only amplify the effect, taking him from stellar to ugly in terms of Fantasy value. You might want to salvage what you can on the trade market and move on with your life.

Michael McKenry, C, Pirates: McKenry isn't technically the starting catcher in Pittsburgh, which makes him awfully hard to recommend as a starting catcher in Fantasy. But you know what helps? A .397 (27 for 68) batting average, eight home runs and 1.272 OPS in his last 22 games. Granted, those 22 games have been spread out over the course of six weeks, but the Pirates have begun to take notice, starting McKenry in four of their last seven games. And the production has continued with two home runs during that stretch. McKenry wasn't exactly a stud in waiting during his minor-league career, but he did have a 20-homer season and accumulated a .357 on-base percentage in six seasons overall. Rod Barajas brings a lot to the Pirates defensively, but if the offensive contributions are that far apart, at some point the defense has to take a back seat. McKenry is already worth adding in two-catcher leagues, and if the increase in playing time continues, his value will only rise from there.

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Down the line ... A brief update on some of the minor-leaguers or prospects who have caught the attention of Fantasy owners

Moises Sierra, OF, Blue Jays: Sierra didn't appear on any of the top prospect lists this spring, and chances are he's not a superstar in the making. But his power breakthrough at Double-A last year carried over to Triple-A this year, earning him a promotion to the majors last week. If it was just to occupy a spot on the bench, you could quickly dismiss Sierra as another statistical curiosity whose minor-league numbers were never meant to lead to bigger and better things, a la Ryan Langerhans or Travis Ishikawa. But the Blue Jays seem at least halfway interested in trying him out, starting him in three of their last six games. Sierra doesn't have great plate discipline, but his other numbers suggest he could be another Torii Hunter (at least offensively) if everything breaks his way.

Dan Straily, SP, Athletics: Speaking of minor-leaguers left off the top prospect lists, all this talk of Straily being elite now that he's in the majors seems a little overblown considering neither Baseball America nor John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com even included him on their midseason lists. Yeah, his numbers are fantastic -- he led all of professional baseball in strikeouts at the time of his promotion -- but he wouldn't be the first to dominate minor-leaguers and then struggle at the next level. See Liam Hendriks or Eric Surkamp. He also wouldn't be the first late-bloomer to catch the prospect gurus by surprise. See Brandon Beachy or even Mike Fiers this year. Clearly, Straily still has something to prove that goes beyond just the numbers. He's worth a flier for sure, but keep your expectations in check.

Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals: Taveras has been a subject of debate recently, with some in St. Louis speculating that he could be on his way to the majors to replace Jon Jay in center field. It seems a bit farfetched considering he only recently turned 20 and has yet to play a game above Double-A, but the proliferation of those rumors in spite of the obvious detractions shows just how talented Taveras is. Despite being younger than most of his peers, he leads the Texas League with a .320 batting average and ranks third with a .567 slugging percentage. He has just 12 more strikeouts than walks, averaging about one per eight at-bats, which is especially impressive for a young power hitter. Even if he's not up this year, he will be next year. He's the kind of player you'll want to lock up in advance in long-term keeper leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury posts perfect day at the plate
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:39 am ET) Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury went a perfect 4 for 4 at the plate in New York's 8-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday. 

Ellsbury was able to reach base safely on each of his plate appearances, four singles and a walk, and scored two runs in the game. Ellsbury now has a .351/.432/.402 slash line in 97 at-bats this season.


Yankees pitcher Adam Warren picks up win Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:03 am ET) Yankees pitcher Adam Warren allowed four runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of work in New York's 8-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday.

Warren did not find any issues until the sixth inning when he allowed four straight hitters to reach base safely after getting two outs. Warren allowed an RBI double to David Ortiz and then an RBI single to Pablo Sandoval before getting the hook.

Warren, now 2-1, moved his ERA to 4.78 with 14 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings of work. He will look to keep rolling Friday against the Orioles.


Mike Napoli goes yard for Red Sox in loss
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:03 am ET) First baseman Mike Napoli has been in a terrible funk for the first month of the season, but finally put a good swing on the ball in Sunday’s 8-5 loss to the Yankees, blasting a three-run homer.

Napoli entered Saturday stuck in a 6-for-33 rut, but in the sixth inning, with Boston deep in an 8-2 hole, he connected for a three-run home run, just his second of the season, off Adam Warren to help the Red Sox close the gap. 

Even with the homer and a walk, Napoli is hitting just .167 on the season. 


Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner cracks second home run
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:02 am ET) Yankees left fiedler Brett Gardner went 2 for 5 at the plate in New York's 8-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday.

Gardner did his damage in the sixth inning when he took a Craig Breslow pitch over the right field wall for a three-run home run, his second of the year. Gardner also singled and scored twice. 

Gardner is now hitting .324 with 13 RBI in 74 at-bats this season.


Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeria cracks ninth home run Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:02 am ET) Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira went 1 for 4 at the plate in New York's 8-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday.

Teixeira did his damage in the first inning, cranking a two-run home run over the Green Monster off of Joe Kelly, his ninth of the season. Teixeira is now hitting .202 with 20 RBI in 84 at-bats this season.


Yankees closer Andrew Miller earns 10th save of the season
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:02 am ET) Yankees closer Andrew Miller worked a nearly perfect ninth inning in New York's 8-5 win over the Red Sox on Sunday, earning his 10th save of the year.

After walking Allen Craig to lead off the inning, Miller struck out two in Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart. Then, Miller put two more runners on base to load the bases for David Ortiz. Miller worked to a full count before Ortiz to flyout to end the game.

"The hitter he had to get out who has so many times beat the Yankees and has had big hits for them," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "It shows he has the stomach for it."

Miller maintained his perfect 0.00 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings of work.

"There's still a long way to go, but you can't feel any better than that," said Miller. "He's got a flare for the dramatic. That's been the most important part of his career. It's not how I drew it up and wanted to do it."


Red Sox starter Joe Kelly roughed up
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:00 am ET) Starting pitcher Joe Kelly struggled once again for the Red Sox during Sunday night’s 8-5 loss to the Yankees, with home runs being the primary concern.

Kelly lasted just 4 2/3 innings, allowing nine runs on five hits, including a first-inning homer to the Yanks’ Mark Teixeira. It’s the fourth straight non-quality start for Kelly, who only managed to strike out three batters. 

In losing his first career game against the Yankees in four starts, Kelly drops to 1-1 and his ERA rises to 5.72. 


Diamondbacks' A.J. Pollock trying to avoid over-swinging
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/3/2015) Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock knows the team is in a bit of a slump at the plate, including himself, according to MLB.com.

Arizona scored just four runs in the weekend set with Los Angeles, including two shutouts. Pollock is hitting .284, but went a combined 1 for 13 in the series.

"I think when you're not putting runs up you've got guys that want to get it done now," Pollock said. "Probably a little over-swinging and getting outside the zone. I know I've done that. It's tough, because you want to pick up the pitchers because they're throwing well, and it just wasn't happening and you start to press.

"Every team is going to go through that at some point. It's tough when you're in it to figure out exactly how to stop it. Obviously you want to care, I mean everyone cares. It's kind of trying to back off because you can care too much sometimes and that causes pressing. It's a tough one to get out of it."


Slumping SS Rougned Odor may be demoted
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(5/3/2015) With the Rangers floundering with the worst record in the American League, General Manager Jon Daniels said that the team will make some "smaller changes" this week, per the Dallas Morning News

One of the trouble spots the Rangers may address is shortstop, where Rougned Odor is slumping badly, with only six hits in his last 49 at-bats. The Rangers may decide to let him work out his swing in the minors. 

"He's still learning," manager Jeff Banister said of Odor. "There are going to be growing pains. He was aggressive. He got himself in a hole a couple of times. Then you are facing the pitcher’s [choice of] pitches. It makes it tougher."


Padres to call up prospect Austin Hedges
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/3/2015) The Padres are set to call up their top prospect catcher Austin Hedges, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

Hedges was hitting .343 with two home runs and 15 RBI in 67 at-bats for Triple-A El Paso. Hedges was one of the final cuts for San Diego in spring training, going 2 for 13 with a walk.


 
 
 
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