Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Plumbing the Depths for Week 21

  •  

Once upon a time, Roberto Hernandez was a pitcher who drew interest from owners in standard mixed leagues. That's a name change and several seasons ago, though, as he has been bedeviled by poor control and high home run rates in his more recent campaigns.

Hernandez's age and identify fraud scandal (and suspension) may be behind him now that he has made his season debut with the Indians, but as his poor showing on Wednesday reflected, he is even a risky pickup for owners in deeper leagues. The story of Hernandez's debut was a familiar one; he got the Angels to hit plenty of grounders, but he sustained too much damage on those balls that went airborne, including a pair of solo home runs. Hernandez gave owners a sneak preview of these difficulties when he allowed five home runs during a pair of Class A rehab starts in recent weeks. He still has time to shake off the rust and provide value to owners in deeper leagues, but until he starts to show improvement, there is little reason for owners to chase after him. His four percent ownership rate sounds just about right for now.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

On the other hand, each of the 10 pitchers featured below should have more value for owners in deeper leagues than Hernandez. If you're looking for a waiver pickup for Fantasy Week 21 (August 20-26), there is a good chance that several of these pitchers will be available in your leagues, and each offers some promise for the coming scoring period. All stats are current for games through Wednesday, August 15.

Deeper league two-start options

Joe Saunders, Diamondbacks
Projected matchups: MIA (Buehrle), SD (Volquez)
2012 stats: 6-9, 3.70 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 87 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 41/22
Outlook: With career-best strikeout and walk rates, Saunders has been a surprisingly solid option in deeper leagues, and in the occasional two-start week, he has even been trustworthy in standard mixed leagues. Saunders is not always an advisable start at home, though, where he sports a 4.72 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 rate. In Week 21, the lefty has the good fortune of facing the power-deprived Marlins and Padres at Chase Field, so these shouldn't be typical home starts. Saunders has already faced each squad once on the road this season, and he didn't allow a run in either start. Owners in standard mixed leagues should be able to find more reliable options, but in anything deeper, Saunders should be considered a must-start with these matchups.

Mike Leake, Reds
Projected matchups: @PHI (Halladay), STL (Garcia)
2012 stats: 5-7, 4.29 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 95 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 40/22
Outlook: As recently as three weeks ago, Leake was barely available in deeper formats, as he was riding a two-month stretch of consistently good starts. Back-to-back flops against the Padres and Pirates left owners dumping Leake in droves, but he rebounded in subsequent outings against the Cubs and Mets. Even with a two-start week on the horizon, the needle on Leake's ownership rate has barely moved. Even with his recent pair of subpar starts, the 24-year-old has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP since May 16. Leake's matchups aren't the most favorable, but he should be started in all deeper leagues next week, and even a few standard mixed ones.

Lucas Harrell, Astros
Projected matchups: @STL (Wainwright), @NYM (Hefner)
2012 stats: 10-8, 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 103 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 35/22
Outlook: Owners in Head-to-Head points leagues have known for some time now that Harrell is a sneaky play in two-start weeks, as he is currently the fourth-highest ranked RP-eligible starter in those formats. Based on Harrell's ownership rate, what seems to be a better-kept secret is that he has been just flat-out good for the last two months. Over his last 10 starts, Harrell has posted a 2.23 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, as he's been getting more strikeouts while maintaining a high ground ball rate. He has also allowed just two homers over that 10-game span, and with a pair of starts away from Minute Maid Park, Harrell could continue his quiet success.

Freddy Garcia, Yankees
Projected matchups: @CHW (Floyd), @CLE (Jimenez)
2012 stats: 4-10, 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 97 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 22/12
Outlook: Garcia has been rivaling Harrell as an under-the-radar success. His first stint as a starter this season was so miserable (12.51 ERA over four starts) that his season-to-date stats are still bearing the weight of those early runs and hits. Since rejoining the rotation in early July, Garcia's ERA is a tamer 3.69, and though he is still susceptible to the long ball, he's missing enough bats to get by. Going back even further, Garcia's ERA from May forward is 3.17, reflecting the success he enjoyed during two months of bullpen work. Granted, the schedule has worked in Garcia's favor lately, but he's turned in good starts against the Rangers and Red Sox in his recent run, so he has a chance to tame the White Sox in the tougher of his two matchups this coming week.

Will Smith, Royals
Projected matchups: @TB (Hellickson), @BOS (Cook)
2012 stats: 4-4, 5.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 34 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 3/1
Outlook: Two weeks ago, I singled out Smith in this space as an underowned pitcher who needed to be used in more AL-only leagues, if not deeper mixed league formats. Since then, he has been making a case for even greater popularity, yet his ownership rate has barely budged. His first start out of his last three, against the Rangers, was lackluster, though having allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings, he kept the Royals in the game. He followed that effort up with a pair of seven-inning quality starts against the Orioles and A's. There is no evidence to suggest that Smith is going to bust out as a strikeout pitcher, but the progress he made as a 22-year-old in Double-A last season suggests that he could have staying power as a control artist in the majors.

Don't Just Play, Play to Win!
Fantasy Baseball Today Be sure to catch Fantasy Baseball 360 LIVE at 5 p.m. ET every weekday to dominate your Fantasy leagues. Our writers will have the latest news, analysis and roster trends each afternoon.
Fantasy Baseball TodayCheck out the latest episode!

Waiver wire targets

Ross Detwiler, Nationals
Projected matchups: ATL (Medlen)
2012 stats: 6-5, 3.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 74 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 57/31
Outlook: Detwiler has remarkably similar rate stats to Matt Harrison and only slightly less run support, yet the Rangers' hurler is almost universally owned, while Detwiler has only recently cracked the 50 percent ownership mark. Harrison does have more value, especially in points leagues, as he is almost a lock to last six innings or more, but given the degree of their similarities, it's hard not to conclude that Detwiler is owned in too few leagues (and perhaps, that Harrison is owned in too many). Detwiler's popularity has risen enough that he won't be available in most deeper leagues, but he needs to be snapped up in those where he is still on waivers. He's been on a serious roll over his last six starts, holding opponents to a .311 slugging percentage, so he also needs to be on active rosters in all deeper formats.

Zach McAllister, Indians
Projected matchups: @SEA (Iwakuma)
2012 stats: 5-4, 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 69 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 33/15
Outlook: After striking out 59 batters over 62 1/3 innings over his first 10 starts this year, McAllister looked like a sure-fire regression candidate, and in fact, his K-rate has started to shrink over his last three outings. Even if McAllister's days as a strikeout pitcher are over, it's not necessarily a bad thing for Fantasy owners. Those strikeouts were fueled by a high foul ball rate, which we often see from flyball pitchers, but more recently, we've seen McAllister rediscover his ability to induce grounders. That gives him a chance to lower his home run rate, which in turn, can help him to maintain his relatively modest ERA and WHIP. Toss in a favorable matchup against the Mariners, and this looks like a good week to start McAllister in the 33 percent of leagues he is currently owned in and then some.

Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
Projected matchups: CLE (McAllister)
2012 stats: 3-3, 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 58 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 22/11
Outlook: Iwakuma will face off with McAllister, so at best, only one will emerge with a "W," but both are worth starting in most deeper leagues. Iwakuma's numbers don't look as impressive as McAllister's, but if you factor out Iwakuma's time in the bullpen, it's a closer contest. He's been striking out more batters since entering the rotation, posting a 7.7 K/9 rate as a starter, as compared to his 6.8 rate as a reliever. Also, his starter ERA (3.73) is more than a run lower than his mark as a reliever (4.75). Iwakuma's sketchy control prevents him from having broader Fantasy appeal, but he may be underrated as a source for Ks. Deeper-league owners needing to make a run in that category need to look into claiming the former Rakuten Golden Eagle.

Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
Projected matchups: WAS (Jackson)
2012 stats: 5-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 74 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 6/4
Outlook: Kendrick has turned in more than his share of mediocre performances this year, so it would be easy to dismiss Tuesday's seven innings of shutout ball against the Marlins as the product of a favorable matchup. However, it was the fifth time in Kendrick's 16 starts that he pitched at least seven innings, and in three of those long starts, he held the opponent scoreless. The other two victims, by the way, were the heavy-hitting Cardinals and Braves. The point here isn't that Kendrick is a safe bet in deeper leagues week in and week out, as inconsistent command has gotten him into trouble too often. It's that Kendrick does have the potential to stymie opponents, which makes him valuable enough to start in most NL-only leagues. Kendrick shouldn't be the target of waiver wire hysteria, but NL-only owners intrigued by his latest start should give him a try.

Jeremy Hefner, Mets
Projected matchups: HOU (Harrell)
2012 stats: 2-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 33 Ks
Ownership/activation rates: 1/0
Outlook: Strikeout pitchers are in high demand, so here at Plumbing the Depths, you'll find a lot of control pitchers. Hefner falls in that category, but he has the makings of a good one. At each level of the minors, he has shown the ability to limit walks, and he has done it again over his first 18 appearances as a major leaguer. According to data on the StatCorner site, Hefner threw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes as a starter at Triple-A Buffalo this year, and he has followed that up with a 66 percent rate as a Mets starter. Now that he is back as part of the Mets' six-man rotation, Hefner is worth picking up and using in deeper NL-only leagues. Though he hasn't fulfilled it yet, Hefner has the potential to lower your Fantasy staff's WHIP, as he is just a correction of his .321 BABIP away from doing so.

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Baseball.

Vulnerable rotation spots

Athletics: Brett Anderson is rehabbing with Triple-A Sacramento, and he could be ready to return to the A's rotation in Week 21, possibly for Saturday's series finale against the Rays. It's not yet known how manager Bob Melvin will reshape the rotation, though it would seem to mean a permanent move to the bullpen for Travis Blackley. If Melvin opts for a six-man unit, that would mean more days between starts for youngsters Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and Dan Straily.

Red Sox: Manager Bobby Valentine plans to put Felix Doubront back in the rotation after having his most recent turn skipped. He will start sometime during the Red Sox's next homestand, which begins on Tuesday against the Angels, though Valentine has yet to indicate whether Aaron Cook will lose his starting role or stay as part of a six-man rotation.

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin is expected to rejoin the Rockies for their series at the Mets next week. He has missed more than half the season due to nerve damage in his chest. Tyler Chatwood is the most likely candidate to get pushed out of the rotation.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Rockies' Logan Boone appears to be fully healthy
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:33 am ET) Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich said pitcher Boone Logan has completely recovered from elbow issues that ended his 2014 season, reports The Denver Post.

Boone struggled in 2014 and was placed on the disabled list with elbow inflammation. He produced a 6.84 ERA over 25 innings.


Report: Yelich, Hechavarria turn down offers from Marlins
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:21 am ET) The Marlins are no longer discussing multiyear contracts with outfielder Christian Yelich and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, reports the Miami Herald.

A significant gap between Yelich and the Marlins has caused contract talks on a long-term deal to stall. Hechavarria turned down the Marlins' multiyear contract because the offer was not significant enough. He can become a free agent after the 2018 season, while Yelich can become a free agent after 2019.


Rockies' Jhoulys Chacin ready for bounce back 2015 season
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:46 am ET) Rockies pitcher Jhoulys Chacin had a tough 2014 season. After injuring his shoulder in spring training, Chacin struggled in 11 starts, posting a 1-7 record with a 5.40 ERA in 63 1/3 innings. He suffered right rotator cuff strain, which forced him to miss nearly half the season.

However, manager Walt Weiss is happy with Chacin's progress this offseason.

"He's doing great. He's been throwing and working out really hard. He's had a really good offseason," Weiss said to The Denver Post.

Teammate and pitcher Jorge De La Rosa thinks 2015 will be much kinder to Chacin.

"He surprised me a lot," De La Rosa said. "He was playing catch with me every day (in Scottsdale, Ariz.), and his arm looks really good. His ball really had some life, and he's lost some weight. I think he's getting stronger. He's going to have a good year."


Report: Braves sign reliever David Carpenter
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) The Braves signed relief pitcher David Carpenter, reports Baseball America.

Carpenter spent the last three seasons pitching for the Angels. During his career, Carpenter has pitched 43 innings and produced a 5.23 ERA.


Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki wants to move past injury concerns
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has heard the rumors about being injury-prone and he said it only motivates him to play better, reports MLB.com.

Tulowitzki only appeared in 91 games during the 2014 season and said his main goal for 2015 is to stay on the field.

"I've heard that I'm injury-prone. I've heard that I'm getting older. I like it," he said. "That stuff fuels me. It makes my workouts better. It makes me want it that much more. I just want to prove that I can do it. For so long, I've worked so hard to try to stay on the field. That's what keeps driving me - to stay on the field, help this team win and try to solidify myself as the best player in the game."

He added that he wants to play between 140 and 160 games, but he knows it will be a challenge as he gets older.

"It's been a battle for me, no doubt," Tulowitzki said. "I do everything I possibly can to prepare for the season and make myself healthy."


Red Sox's Hanley Ramirez confident he can play outfield
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) When Hanley Ramirez makes his spring training debut, he’ll be trying to learn new teammates and a new position.

The Red Sox signed Ramirez in the offseason with the intent of having him play in left field. Ramirez has never played in the outfield during his career, but has been working on outfield mechanics, including tracking balls and hitting the cutoff man. Ramirez believes the switch from the infield to the outfield will be seamless, once he receives enough experience, reports ESPN.com.

"I think if I put in all the work that I need to put to get better it's not going to be that hard," Ramirez said.


Tigers sign pitcher Al Alburquerque for $1.725 million
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) The Tigers have re-signed pitcher Al Alburquerque to a $1.725 million contract with a $12,500 bonus for 75 appearances, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

Alburquerque originally filed for $2.05 million in arbitration while Detroit offered $1.375 million, according to Heyman. The five-year veteran went 3-1 in 2014 with a 2.51 ERA in 72 games. 


Astros ask third baseman Matt Dominguez to learn first base
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) With the Astros recently acquiring infielder Luis Valbuena, third baseman Matt Dominguez has been asked to start learning how to play first base, reports the Houston Chronicle.

"You get a bigger glove, so it can't be that hard," Dominguez said.

Dominguez has spent the last two seasons as the full-time third baseman for the Astors, but he will compete with Valbuena for the starting role this season. If Valbuena wins the third base job, the Astros want Dominguez to be able to switch to first base.

"[Astros manager A.J. Hinch] thinks I'm going to be a third baseman, but he wants to also help me try to make the team by adding a little more versatility and move around a little bit more," Dominguez said. "Do whatever I need to do."


Citing health, Allen Craig hopes to play well for Red Sox
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) After declaring himself healthy, Red Sox outfielder Allen Craig hopes to justify the Red Sox’s decision to trade for him, reports the Boston Herald.

Craig suffered a ligament tear in his left foot in 2013 and struggled throughout 2014, hitting .215 with eight home runs and 46 RBI.

"I'm just going to go to spring training and compete wherever I'm at and just play the game like I always have," Craig said. "The Red Sox traded for me because they believe in me, so I want to go out there and play well."


White Sox C Tyler Flowers: 'It's my job to lose' behind the plate
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1/24/2015) White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers told reporters he doesn't plan on giving up his starting job easily, per MLB.com. On Thursday, Geovany Soto signed a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training.

"I really don't think there's much of a question going in there," Flowers said. "I would definitely say it's my job to lose. Barring an injury, there's really no doubt I'll be the guy catching opening day."

Flowers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal, worth $2.675 million for this season. The 28-year-old hit .241/.297/.396 with 15 homers and 50 RBI over 407 at-bats in 2014.

"At this point, there's no reason to move off of that," general manager Rick Hahn said. "Competition is good. It brings out the best in people. And if someone comes in and fights for that job and earns it, I'm sure we'll be flexible. But certainly, we view Tyler as the starter."


 
 
 
Rankings