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By the Numbers: The second time around

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Coming into the 2012 season, it looked as if Fantasy owners had a lot to look forward to from the 2011 class of rookie starting pitchers. Not only did that cohort include the AL Rookie of the Year award winner (Jeremy Hellickson), but it also included a top three finisher in the NL voting (Vance Worley).

Neither Hellickson nor Worley has lived up to the standards they set for themselves last season, much less exceeded them. And the disappointment doesn't end there, as Michael Pineda, Cory Luebke, Danny Duffy, Brandon Beachy and Kyle Drabek had their seasons curtailed or wiped out due to surgery. Josh Collmenter and Alexi Ogando both missed time as well, and both have spent most of the year in the bullpen rather than in the rotation.

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Not every sophomore starter turned out to be a bummer, though. While Pineda (81 ADP) and Hellickson (126 ADP) left their Fantasy owners with buyer's remorse, Mike Minor (194 ADP) and Marco Estrada (279 ADP) have provided an ample return on a minimal investment. Whether a second-year starter's stock went up or down this year, there is something to be gained by looking at each of a pitcher's first two seasons to gather some clues about where his value will lie in 2013. That's exactly what we'll do here this week, scouring over the limited big league track records of 10 pitchers from last season's rookie crop. For each pitcher, we will take a look at what changed for him since last season and what that might mean for him going forward.

Henderson Alvarez, Blue Jays: Coming into this season, Alvarez appeared ready to help owners in standard mixed leagues, at least as a streaming option. As a minor leaguer and as a rookie, he showed the ability to keep his ERA low by way of a high ground ball rate. He also looked like a good bet for a low WHIP, since he had consistently put up microscopic walk rates. While Alvarez has never been a strikeout pitcher, he has been exceptionally hittable this year, striking out batters at the lowest rate in the majors, and by a large margin. Just because Alvarez doesn't get swings-and-misses doesn't mean he can't improve his K-rate and other stats, but he has to get called strikes at an above-average level, and he hasn't done that this year. As a 22-year-old who skipped over Triple-A, Alvarez just may need more seasoning, and the potential for much better performance is still there. Going into next season, though, there will be no reason to draft him outside of AL-only leagues.

Alex Cobb, Rays: Cobb's promising rookie season was cut short when he had surgery to remove a blockage near his rib, and he was slow coming out of the gate once he entered the Rays' rotation in May. Since late July, Cobb has not only hit his stride, but for the first time, he is replicating the low walk rates he compiled in the minors. Cobb has also punched up his strikeout rate as he has rung up called strikes on an astounding 24 percent of his pitches over his last six starts. The good news for owners who have Cobb this season is that, according to the Tampa Tribune, he will remain in the rotation for the rest of this campaign, even though Jeff Niemann has returned from his fractured fibula. Cobb should also have at least as much value next year, and he is worth a late-round grab in standard mixed leagues.

Marco Estrada, Brewers: Coming out of his first two seasons at Triple-A (in 2008 and 2009), Estrada looked to have only modest promise in Fantasy, as his low walk rates would have to compensate for mediocre strikeout rates. After missing most of 2010 with shoulder issues, Estrada faded even further into obscurity. In his rookie season with the Brewers, Estrada started getting strikeouts, but having been used mainly in a relief role, it was still not clear he would have much Fantasy value if he ever got a chance to stick as a starter. That opportunity came this season, and the strikeouts remained even with the uptick in innings. In fact, the hints of strikeout potential were always there with higher-than-average swinging strike rates in the minors. His ability to post a low WHIP gives him the upside of a Jake Peavy or Ian Kennedy, but like those two flyball pitchers, there is also the potential for a high ERA. At the very least, Estrada will be a legitimate late-round option in standard mixed leagues next year, and he could be a steal as such.

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Dillon Gee, Mets: Gee is done for the season, as he had surgery to repair an artery in his right shoulder. However, he logged 17 starts before his surgery, giving us a decent sample size, and he should be able to give owners a full season next year, so it's worth taking a look at how Gee has fared. In his rookie season, Gee put up a similar ERA (4.43) and WHIP (1.38) to those he registered the previous two years in Triple-A -- and those weren't very impressive. In addition, he sustained a dramatic drop in his strikeout rate, so owners had little reason to anticipate Gee's sophomore effort. In 2012, Gee improved his strikeout and walk rates, and if not for a mediocre strand rate, his ERA would likely have been well below 4.00, but instead he finished with a 4.10 mark. Given that Gee posted good strikeout-to-walk ratios as a prospect and that his ERA could decline even without improved skill ratios, he appears poised to increase his Fantasy value even more next season.

Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: Owners waiting for the strikeout-artist version of Hellickson to reemerge this season could not help but be disappointed. At least if he could have matched last season's 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, that would have softened the blow of a 5.9 K/9 rate, but both marks grew this year. Hellickson's strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all subpar last year, which made his Rookie of the Year campaign look a little fishy, but he was able to prevent hits and runs with a 14 percent popup rate. So far in 2012, Hellickson has been getting popups more than a third less often, and that has left him with stats that are more typical of someone who pitches to contact but without great control. All those infield flies allowed Hellickson to post the lowest BABIP (.224) since 1988, and it's too much to expect him to lower his ERA and WHIP that way again. It's more realistic to view him as a late-round option in standard mixed leagues.

Lance Lynn, Cardinals: Lynn's path has mirrored Estrada's in some ways, at least up until the middle of this season. Lynn's numbers as a minor league starter were unexciting, but as a rookie, he blossomed in a relief role. His conversion to the rotation went exceedingly well through the middle of July. That's when his command went south, as he has walked 16 batters over his last 29 2/3 innings. As Lynn has struggled to locate his pitches, hitters have been taking fewer strikes, swinging and missing less often and scorching him for more line drives. Command had not been a serious problem for Lynn at any previous level, so this recent skid has the look of a garden-variety slump or maybe a sign of fatigue. Though his recent performance has earned him a bullpen demotion, Lynn has shown that he can be a productive starter, and as long as the Cardinals plan to use him in the rotation next season, he is worth a mid-round pick, though he could likely be had for cheaper.

Mike Minor, Braves: As Lynn was starting to flame out in midseason, Minor was just getting warmed up. The Braves' lefty registered a 6.20 ERA through the end of June, and he looked to be in danger of losing his rotation spot. Since then, Minor has failed to record a quality start only once in nine tries, and the one exception was the result of him being lifted early due to a rain delay. The sharp control that underpinned Minor's success at Triple-A has finally shown itself at the major league level, as he has walked only eight batters over his recent nine-game stretch. Minor is probably overperforming right now, but he is certainly better than the pitcher who allowed walks and homers at astronomical levels back in May and June. Owned in 66 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, Minor is currently underowned and underappreciated, and he should start next season in a healthy portion of standard mixed leagues.

Ivan Nova, Yankees: Nova's frustating sophomore season took a turn for the worse last week when he went on the 15-day disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation. He should be back again this season, but given how homer-prone Nova has been, he won't have much value when he does return. This year's version of Nova found a way to get batters to swing and miss at his curveball more often, but it hasn't paid off, as he has gotten clobbered when throwing his fastball and slider. Nova's heater, in particular, has really let him down. Last season, it was a big reason why he got grounders on 55 percent of hit balls, but this year he has been getting less vertical movement, and that rate has dropped to 46 percent. The low ground ball rate could be an aberration, and if Nova can get both his curveball and fastball working, he could take a huge step forward. It's way too risky to assume that will happen, so Nova should be considered a late-round option at best next season.

Chris Sale, White Sox: Of the pitchers featured here who made the conversion from a relief role this year, Sale has had the greatest success by far. Though his K-rate has shrunk somewhat, he has still struck out nearly a batter per inning, and he has managed to make dramatic improvements in his walk rate and strikes thrown percentage. Sale has been a top 12 starting pitcher this year, and even being conservative, he hasn't given Fantasy owners any reason to doubt he belongs in the top 20.

Vance Worley, Phillies: Through the middle of July, Worley seemed to be proving that his rookie season was no fluke, as he had a 3.47 ERA through his first 15 starts. Though he lacks dominating stuff, Worley was able to compile a robust strikeout rate due to his ability to get called strikes at one of the highest rates in the majors. Over his last seven starts, Worley has been fooling batters less often and getting fewer strikeouts and allowing more runs in the process. The Phillies' organization had downplayed the impact that Worley's bone chips were having on his performance, but now that he is set to have elbow surgery to remove the bodies within the next couple of weeks, it raises more questions about the link between the bone chips and the decline in performance. Until more is known, Worley should be viewed with suspicion in standard mixed leagues on Draft Day 2013.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Rangers' Jurickson Profar hoping to play every spring game
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(6:53 pm ET) Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar is hoping to play every spring training game, according to FoxSports.com.

Profar missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury, but is working his way back during the offseason. He'll likely be behind the other position players, and may have to serve as the team's designated hitter early on during spring. The 21-year-old Profar came into last season listed as one of the top prospects in the game. 


Reds, Paul Maholm agree to deal for 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(4:12 pm ET) The Reds and pitcher Paul Maholm have agreed to a minor-league contract for 2015 with an invitation to spring training, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

Maholm, who is recovering from ACL surgery in August, made 30 appearances in 2014 for the Dodgers, posting a 1-5 record with a 4.84 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings pitched.


White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija willing to listen to long-term deal
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:32 pm ET) New White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija's agent, Mark Rodgers said Sunday he and his client "owe it to Chicago to consider an offer" on a long-term contract, according to Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio.

However, Rodgers also said they would need to see how things go for at least half of a season before deciding whether to stay with the club.

Samardzija was traded to Chicago in the offseason from Oakland and has one-year remaining on his current contract.

Samardzija finished 2014 with a 7-13 record between the Cubs and Athletics, posting a 2.99 ERA with 202 strikeouts in 219 2/3 innings.


Scott Boras: Andruw Jones hopes to return to majors in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:18 pm ET) Agent Scott Boras said outfielder Andruw Jones wants to return to the majors for another season in 2015 and that at least two teams are interested in signing him as a designated hitter.

Jones has spent the last two seasons playing in Japan. In his major-league career, Jones totaled 434 home runs and 1,289 RBI.


Royals' Luke Hochevar nearing return from Tommy John surgery
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:00 pm ET) Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar has been able to throw off a mound and expects to soon be at the full strength, reports The Kansas City Star.

Hochevar is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the 2014 season and said he expects to be at full strength once spring training is underway.

"I'm conditioning my arm," Hochevar said. "Once spring training comes around they're going to monitor me for a little while, but once they cut me loose I become a regular guy again."

In 2013, Hochevar produced a 1.92 ERA in 58 games. While Hochevar said he's looking forward to returning, he wants to be cautious with his body.

"Hopefully, I'm ready in two weeks," Hochevar said. "But you never know and I'm not going to put a timetable on it. I'm going to listen to my body. I need to look long term, not just career-wise but season-wise. Me on the shelf is no good. If it takes me an extra two weeks, a month, whatever it is, I need to be mindful of that."


Report: Padres 'in touch' with Phillies regarding Cole Hamels
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:09 am ET) The Padres are "in touch" with the Phillies in an attempt to land pitcher Cole Hamels, FOX Sports reports.

The Padres have made plenty of upgrades across the roster since general manager A.J. Heller took over, and it's possible they don't have the ammunition to land the Philadelphia ace in a deal. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said last week that he didn't expect Hamels to be traded before the start of the season. Hamels went 9-9 with a 2.46 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 204 2/3 innings in 2014.


Report: Orioles sign Mark Hendrickson to minor-league deal
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) The Orioles have signed Mark Hendrickson to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training, CSNBaltimore.com reports.

Hendrickson, who last pitched in the majors in 2011, spent 2014 with York of the independent Atlantic League, posting a 1.54 ERA and 34:11 K:BB ratio in 52 2/3 innings over 55 appearances.


Rangers' Matt Harrison expects to open season on 60-day DL
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Rangers pitcher Matt Harrison said Saturday that he expects to open the season on the 60-day disabled list as he continues to recover from spinal fusion surgery, the Dallas Morning News reports.

"My job is to just get as healthy as I can and get myself right so I don’t have something happen like it did last year when I tried to come back," Harrison said. "I’m just going to focus on that and get ready to contribute whenever it may be."

Harrison is dealing with some stiffness in his right side, which will cause him to throw from a distance of 90 feet for a second consecutive week rather than progress to 105 feet. He hopes that he'll get his hips to rotate more and loosen up with more stretching and more throws from the 90-foot distance.


Report: Rays sign Ronald Belisario to minor-league deal
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) The Rays have signed pitcher Ronald Belisario to a minor-league deal with an invitiation to spring training, the Tampa Bay Times reports.

Belisaro made 62 appearances with the White Sox in 2014, posting a 4-8 record, 5.56 ERA and 47:18 K:BB ratio in 66 1/3 innings. He'll compete for a bullpen spot during the spring.


Dodgers SP Zack Greinke hasn't decided whether to opt out
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke said Saturday that he's yet to decide whether to opt out of his contract at the end of next season but added, "There's not really better options anywhere besides here," the Los Angeles Times reports.

Greinke is set to make $23 million in 2015, and he's due another $71 million over the following three seasons if he remains under his current contract. The Dodgers said earlier this offseason that they wouldn't discuss a contract extension with the pitcher during the winter.

Greinke went 17-8 with a 2.71 ERA and 207:43 K:BB ratio in 202 1/3 innings in 2014.


 
 
 
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