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By the Numbers: The second time around

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Coming into the 2012 season, it looked as if Fantasy owners had a lot to look forward to from the 2011 class of rookie starting pitchers. Not only did that cohort include the AL Rookie of the Year award winner (Jeremy Hellickson), but it also included a top three finisher in the NL voting (Vance Worley).

Neither Hellickson nor Worley has lived up to the standards they set for themselves last season, much less exceeded them. And the disappointment doesn't end there, as Michael Pineda, Cory Luebke, Danny Duffy, Brandon Beachy and Kyle Drabek had their seasons curtailed or wiped out due to surgery. Josh Collmenter and Alexi Ogando both missed time as well, and both have spent most of the year in the bullpen rather than in the rotation.

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Not every sophomore starter turned out to be a bummer, though. While Pineda (81 ADP) and Hellickson (126 ADP) left their Fantasy owners with buyer's remorse, Mike Minor (194 ADP) and Marco Estrada (279 ADP) have provided an ample return on a minimal investment. Whether a second-year starter's stock went up or down this year, there is something to be gained by looking at each of a pitcher's first two seasons to gather some clues about where his value will lie in 2013. That's exactly what we'll do here this week, scouring over the limited big league track records of 10 pitchers from last season's rookie crop. For each pitcher, we will take a look at what changed for him since last season and what that might mean for him going forward.

Henderson Alvarez, Blue Jays: Coming into this season, Alvarez appeared ready to help owners in standard mixed leagues, at least as a streaming option. As a minor leaguer and as a rookie, he showed the ability to keep his ERA low by way of a high ground ball rate. He also looked like a good bet for a low WHIP, since he had consistently put up microscopic walk rates. While Alvarez has never been a strikeout pitcher, he has been exceptionally hittable this year, striking out batters at the lowest rate in the majors, and by a large margin. Just because Alvarez doesn't get swings-and-misses doesn't mean he can't improve his K-rate and other stats, but he has to get called strikes at an above-average level, and he hasn't done that this year. As a 22-year-old who skipped over Triple-A, Alvarez just may need more seasoning, and the potential for much better performance is still there. Going into next season, though, there will be no reason to draft him outside of AL-only leagues.

Alex Cobb, Rays: Cobb's promising rookie season was cut short when he had surgery to remove a blockage near his rib, and he was slow coming out of the gate once he entered the Rays' rotation in May. Since late July, Cobb has not only hit his stride, but for the first time, he is replicating the low walk rates he compiled in the minors. Cobb has also punched up his strikeout rate as he has rung up called strikes on an astounding 24 percent of his pitches over his last six starts. The good news for owners who have Cobb this season is that, according to the Tampa Tribune, he will remain in the rotation for the rest of this campaign, even though Jeff Niemann has returned from his fractured fibula. Cobb should also have at least as much value next year, and he is worth a late-round grab in standard mixed leagues.

Marco Estrada, Brewers: Coming out of his first two seasons at Triple-A (in 2008 and 2009), Estrada looked to have only modest promise in Fantasy, as his low walk rates would have to compensate for mediocre strikeout rates. After missing most of 2010 with shoulder issues, Estrada faded even further into obscurity. In his rookie season with the Brewers, Estrada started getting strikeouts, but having been used mainly in a relief role, it was still not clear he would have much Fantasy value if he ever got a chance to stick as a starter. That opportunity came this season, and the strikeouts remained even with the uptick in innings. In fact, the hints of strikeout potential were always there with higher-than-average swinging strike rates in the minors. His ability to post a low WHIP gives him the upside of a Jake Peavy or Ian Kennedy, but like those two flyball pitchers, there is also the potential for a high ERA. At the very least, Estrada will be a legitimate late-round option in standard mixed leagues next year, and he could be a steal as such.

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Dillon Gee, Mets: Gee is done for the season, as he had surgery to repair an artery in his right shoulder. However, he logged 17 starts before his surgery, giving us a decent sample size, and he should be able to give owners a full season next year, so it's worth taking a look at how Gee has fared. In his rookie season, Gee put up a similar ERA (4.43) and WHIP (1.38) to those he registered the previous two years in Triple-A -- and those weren't very impressive. In addition, he sustained a dramatic drop in his strikeout rate, so owners had little reason to anticipate Gee's sophomore effort. In 2012, Gee improved his strikeout and walk rates, and if not for a mediocre strand rate, his ERA would likely have been well below 4.00, but instead he finished with a 4.10 mark. Given that Gee posted good strikeout-to-walk ratios as a prospect and that his ERA could decline even without improved skill ratios, he appears poised to increase his Fantasy value even more next season.

Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: Owners waiting for the strikeout-artist version of Hellickson to reemerge this season could not help but be disappointed. At least if he could have matched last season's 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, that would have softened the blow of a 5.9 K/9 rate, but both marks grew this year. Hellickson's strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all subpar last year, which made his Rookie of the Year campaign look a little fishy, but he was able to prevent hits and runs with a 14 percent popup rate. So far in 2012, Hellickson has been getting popups more than a third less often, and that has left him with stats that are more typical of someone who pitches to contact but without great control. All those infield flies allowed Hellickson to post the lowest BABIP (.224) since 1988, and it's too much to expect him to lower his ERA and WHIP that way again. It's more realistic to view him as a late-round option in standard mixed leagues.

Lance Lynn, Cardinals: Lynn's path has mirrored Estrada's in some ways, at least up until the middle of this season. Lynn's numbers as a minor league starter were unexciting, but as a rookie, he blossomed in a relief role. His conversion to the rotation went exceedingly well through the middle of July. That's when his command went south, as he has walked 16 batters over his last 29 2/3 innings. As Lynn has struggled to locate his pitches, hitters have been taking fewer strikes, swinging and missing less often and scorching him for more line drives. Command had not been a serious problem for Lynn at any previous level, so this recent skid has the look of a garden-variety slump or maybe a sign of fatigue. Though his recent performance has earned him a bullpen demotion, Lynn has shown that he can be a productive starter, and as long as the Cardinals plan to use him in the rotation next season, he is worth a mid-round pick, though he could likely be had for cheaper.

Mike Minor, Braves: As Lynn was starting to flame out in midseason, Minor was just getting warmed up. The Braves' lefty registered a 6.20 ERA through the end of June, and he looked to be in danger of losing his rotation spot. Since then, Minor has failed to record a quality start only once in nine tries, and the one exception was the result of him being lifted early due to a rain delay. The sharp control that underpinned Minor's success at Triple-A has finally shown itself at the major league level, as he has walked only eight batters over his recent nine-game stretch. Minor is probably overperforming right now, but he is certainly better than the pitcher who allowed walks and homers at astronomical levels back in May and June. Owned in 66 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, Minor is currently underowned and underappreciated, and he should start next season in a healthy portion of standard mixed leagues.

Ivan Nova, Yankees: Nova's frustating sophomore season took a turn for the worse last week when he went on the 15-day disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation. He should be back again this season, but given how homer-prone Nova has been, he won't have much value when he does return. This year's version of Nova found a way to get batters to swing and miss at his curveball more often, but it hasn't paid off, as he has gotten clobbered when throwing his fastball and slider. Nova's heater, in particular, has really let him down. Last season, it was a big reason why he got grounders on 55 percent of hit balls, but this year he has been getting less vertical movement, and that rate has dropped to 46 percent. The low ground ball rate could be an aberration, and if Nova can get both his curveball and fastball working, he could take a huge step forward. It's way too risky to assume that will happen, so Nova should be considered a late-round option at best next season.

Chris Sale, White Sox: Of the pitchers featured here who made the conversion from a relief role this year, Sale has had the greatest success by far. Though his K-rate has shrunk somewhat, he has still struck out nearly a batter per inning, and he has managed to make dramatic improvements in his walk rate and strikes thrown percentage. Sale has been a top 12 starting pitcher this year, and even being conservative, he hasn't given Fantasy owners any reason to doubt he belongs in the top 20.

Vance Worley, Phillies: Through the middle of July, Worley seemed to be proving that his rookie season was no fluke, as he had a 3.47 ERA through his first 15 starts. Though he lacks dominating stuff, Worley was able to compile a robust strikeout rate due to his ability to get called strikes at one of the highest rates in the majors. Over his last seven starts, Worley has been fooling batters less often and getting fewer strikeouts and allowing more runs in the process. The Phillies' organization had downplayed the impact that Worley's bone chips were having on his performance, but now that he is set to have elbow surgery to remove the bodies within the next couple of weeks, it raises more questions about the link between the bone chips and the decline in performance. Until more is known, Worley should be viewed with suspicion in standard mixed leagues on Draft Day 2013.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Bud Norris avoids the loss
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:40 pm ET) Orioles pitcher Bud Norris had a rough start Thursday against the Rays.

Norris allowed four runs on six hits over six innings. He struck out five and walked two during the outing. Norris got himself into trouble almost immediately. He gave up a leadoff double to Desmond Jennings in the first inning. A sac fly brought Jennings home. Evan Longoria then blasted a solo shot to tie the game 2-2. Norris got through the next three innings without any issues. He had some trouble during the fifth, though. After giving up two singles, Norris allowed a sac fly to bring in a run. James Loney would then double in the fourth run of the game. Norris was able to get out of the inning without giving up any additional runs.

Norris left with the game tied, picking up a no-decision. He’ll take on the Reds in his next start. 


Jeremy Hellickson fails to go five innings
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:39 pm ET) Rays pitcher Jeremy Hellickson failed to go five innings Thursday against the Orioles.

Hellickson allowed four runs, three earned, on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings. He struck out two and walked two during the outing. Hellickson found himself in trouble in the first inning. A solo home run to Steve Pearce started the scoring for Baltimore. Hellickson then gave up two straight singles. With men on first and third, the Orioles decided to double-steal. Adam Jones made it home on the steal attempt, while Nelson Cruz was safe at second. Hellickson managed to pitch out of the inning without giving up any additional runs.

He fell into trouble again in the fifth. Hellickson loaded the bases after facing the first three batters. After picking up a line out, Hellickson was removed from the game. Two runs would come around to score after Hellickson left, though one was due to an error. He was charged with both runs, though only one was earned.

Hellickson left with the game tied, earning the no-decision. He’ll take on the Blue Jays in his next start. 


Mets considering moving Travis d'Arnaud to the outfield
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:37 pm ET) The Mets have considered moving catcher Travis d'Arnaud to the outfield, according to the New York Daily News

Manager Terry Collins confirmed that the team has discussed moving d'Arnaud."We’ve talked about it," Collins said. "We’ve brought it up. Obviously, with what he’s started to do offensively, we’ve got to see if these concussions are leading to anything." By moving d'Arnaud to the outfield, the team is hoping to keep his bat in the lineup while making sure he stays healthy. a'Arnaud has already suffered four concussions in his career. 


Jim Adduci pulled with head injury
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:33 pm ET) Rangers outfielder Jim Adduci was pulled from Thursday's game due to a head injury, according to MLB.com.

Adduci hit his head while making a catch on the warning track. The team removed Adduci from the game as a precautionary measure. He will be evaluated for a concussion.


Dilson Herrera gets the call
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:32 pm ET) Mets infielder Dilson Herrera has been promoted to the majors Thursday.

Herrera will replace Daniel Murphy on the active roster. Herrera has hit .319/.377/.471 over two levels in the minors. 


Daniel Murphy headed to the disabled list
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10:26 pm ET) Mets infielder Daniel Murphy has been placed on the disabled list Thursday.

Murphy is dealing with a calf injury. He had not progressed as expected, and was sent for an MRI Thursday. The results of the MRI have yet to be revealed, but the injury is serious enough to require a stint on the DL.


Mike Minor performs well on the mound and at the plate
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:56 pm ET) Braves pitcher Mike Minor helped himself out with a strong game on the mound and at the plate Thursday.

Minor allowed one run on four hits over seven innings. He struck out four and did not issue any walks during the start. Minor was exceptional early, tossing four perfect innings to begin the game. While he allowed a hit to open the fifth inning, Minor was able to pitch around it. Minor gave up his only run in the eighth inning. He gave up a double and a run-scoring single to open the frame, and was pulled before picking up an out. 

Thanks to his strong game at the plate, Minor left with a two-run lead. Minor helped his own cause in the second inning, singling in a run. He struck again in the eighth, leading off the inning with a double. Minor would eventually score during the inning.

With the win, Minor improves to 6-8. He’ll take on the Phillies in his next start.


Jonathon Niese loses despite tossing quality start
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:55 pm ET) Mets pitcher Jonathon Niese turned in a solid start Thursday against the Braves.

Niese allowed three runs on nine hits over 7 1/3 innings. He struck out five and walked one during the outing. Niese had a tough time against opposing pitcher Mike Minor throughout the start. Minor helped his own cause in the second inning, singling home a run with two outs. Minor would also strike in the eighth inning, leading things off with a double. After notching a strikeout, Niese gave up a triple and single to the next two hitters, driving in two runs. 

Minor had a fantastic start, limiting the Mets to just one run. Because of that, Niese was saddled with the loss despite a decent start. He dropped to 7-10. Niese will take on the Marlins in his next start.


Josh Outman heading to New York
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:52 pm ET) The Yankees have acquired pitcher Josh Outman from the Indians, according to the Northeast Ohio Media Group.

Outman was dealt for a player to be named later or cash. He was designated for assignment by Cleveland August 18, and was outrighted to Triple-A Monday. 


Astros monitoring Dallas Keuchel's workload
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:49 pm ET) The Astros are monitoring pitcher Dallas Keuchel's workload, accoring to MLB.com.

Keuchel has already thrown 171 1/3 innings this season. That's close to his previous career-high of 177 2/3 innings. Manager Bo Porter did not say anything about an innings limit for Keuchel, but indicated the team will watch him closely down the stretch. "You look at his workload and the number of innings he's thrown this year, and it's something we definitely need to keep an eye on," Porter said.


 
 
 
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