Al Melchior's 2013 Rankings Snapshot
Editor's Note: We will be providing owners three unique points of view by position this offseason. Our Scott White, Al Melchior and Nando Di Fino will each be sharing their initial views on the 2013 Fantasy Baseball season by position. Teams listed are either a player's current team or the team they ended 2012 on.
Catcher
A year ago, I thought Carlos Santana was the cream of the catching crop, and even though he took a step backward in 2012, I haven't changed my mind on the matter. Even if he doesn't hit for average, Santana can outproduce the field, thanks to his ability to hit for power and draw walks. I also like Mike Napoli's and Brian McCann's chances for comeback seasons. Napoli has never been a great contact hitter, but his strikeout binge was out of line with his career norms and he should make more frequent contact next season. McCann's decline in doubles power is a bit concerning, but now knowing that his shoulder issues could bear part of the blame, it's reasonable to expect a healthy McCann to put up near-elite numbers, even if he misses roughly a month of the season as he recovers from surgery.
It's not clear where all that power came from for Jonathan Lucroy and A.J. Pierzynski in 2012, but it's unlikely they can provide a repeat performance. It's particularly dubious for Pierzynski, who is in his mid- thirties. While the trend is more believable for Lucroy, the increase from his prior numbers -- including those from the minors -- looks a little too good to be true. Carlos Ruiz's breakthrough season also prompted some disbelief, and now that he will be serving a 25-game suspension for testing positive for amphetamines, Chooch barely scooches into the top 20.
Editor's note: Victor Martinez's eligibility in CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball leagues in 2013 will be as a designated hitter and will not include catcher. However, if you're using our rankings to prepare for drafts where Martinez might be eligible at catcher, he would be the No. 5 catcher in my rankings.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Carlos Santana, Indians | 9 | 4 | 11. Alex Avila, Tigers | 21 | 20 |
| 2. Buster Posey, Giants | 1 | 1 | 12. Jesus Montero, Mariners | 15 | 15 |
| 3. Mike Napoli, Red Sox | 12 | 17 | 13. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers | 11 | 16 |
| 4. Joe Mauer, Twins | 3 | 2 | 14. Ryan Doumit, Twins | 10 | 9 |
| 5. Matt Wieters, Orioles | 8 | 5 | 15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox | 13 | 19 |
| 6. Brian McCann, Braves | 14 | 12 | 16. A.J. Pierzynski, Rangers | 7 | 7 |
| 7. Yadier Molina, Cardinals | 2 | 3 | 17. Russell Martin, Pirates | 16 | 13 |
| 8. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks | 7 | 6 | 18. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies | 6 | 8 |
| 9. Wilin Rosario, Rockies | 5 | 10 | 19. Wilson Ramos, Nationals | 56 | 63 |
| 10. Salvador Perez, Royals | 20 | 21 | 20. Mike Zunino, Mariners | N/A | N/A |
First Base
It should be a tight race for top Fantasy first baseman, with Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols all in the running. Despite a disappointing tenure in Boston, Adrian Gonzalez might not be too far behind. He hit with more power in the second half of last season and he is just one year removed from a .338/.410/.548 slash line. After three years of a declining batting average, owners may have soured on Mark Teixeira, but this season he moderated the flyball tendencies that had been leading to an increase in outs. Look for Tex to get rewarded more often for his change in approach, should he stick with it.
Of 2012's most productive first basemen, the only one omitted from this list is Adam LaRoche. His 33 home runs were a career high, but his track record suggests that totals in the mid-20s are what we should expect going forward. That change, along with a drop in run production, is enough to just drop him out of the top 20 for next year.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Albert Pujols, Angels | 4 | 4 | 11. Freddie Freeman, Braves | 15 | 12 |
| 2. Joey Votto, Reds | 21 | 19 | 12. Allen Craig, Cardinals | 11 | 16 |
| 3. Prince Fielder, Tigers | 3 | 3 | 13. Paul Konerko, White Sox | 18 | 15 |
| 4. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers | 10 | 7 | 14. Mike Napoli, Rangers | 39 | 37 |
| 5. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays | 2 | 2 | 15. Ike Davis, Mets | 22 | 20 |
| 6. Billy Butler, Royals | 6 | 5 | 16. Joe Mauer, Twins | 12 | 8 |
| 7. Carlos Santana, Indians | 26 | 17 | 17. Corey Hart, Brewers | 8 | 10 |
| 8. Mark Teixeira, Yankees | 23 | 20 | 18. Nick Swisher, Indians | 17 | 14 |
| 9. Buster Posey, Giants | 5 | 6 | 19. Adam Dunn, White Sox | 16 | 13 |
| 10. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks | 7 | 11 | 20. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs | 40 | 49 |
Second Base
The top four second basemen are all very good and all are worth drafting within the first few rounds. That's because the options from No. 5 on this list on down are far from enticing. Aaron Hill was a Fantasy stud in 2012, but his wild year-to-year inconsistency makes him difficult to trust with an early round pick. If you're counting on the twin "U"s -- Dan Uggla and Chase Utley -- to return to prominence, you could be left with buyer's remorse. Uggla's home run power, which had been his most reliable asset, betrayed him and at this point in his career, Utley is both an injury and a performance risk.
One second baseman who could eventually join the top ranks is Jose Altuve, though it may not happen in 2013. He has already shown he can provide steals, runs and a high batting average and he could add power to that equation. Though he is all of 5-foot-5, his resume includes 25 home runs in 212 games over his last two seasons in the minors.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Robinson Cano, Yankees | 1 | 1 | 11. Chase Utley, Phillies | 22 | 27 |
| 2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox | 6 | 7 | 12. Dustin Ackley, Mariners | 17 | 18 |
| 3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers | 3 | 3 | 13. Danny Espinosa, Nationals | 10 | 14 |
| 4. Ben Zobrist, Rays | 7 | 4 | 14. Neil Walker, Pirates | 14 | 20 |
| 5. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks | 2 | 2 | 15. Howard Kendrick, Angels | 13 | 19 |
| 6. Brandon Phillips, Reds | 5 | 9 | 16. Daniel Murphy, Mets | 15 | 17 |
| 7. Jason Kipnis, Indians | 4 | 6 | 17. Marco Scutaro, Giants | 8 | 8 |
| 8. Jose Altuve, Astros | 9 | 12 | 18. Omar Infante, Tigers | 12 | 13 |
| 9. Dan Uggla, Braves | 16 | 13 | 19. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays | 18 | 20 |
| 10. Rickie Weeks, Brewers | 11 | 11 | 20. Mark Ellis, Dodgers | 26 | 25 |
Third Base
Some may look at the emergence of Chase Headley with skepticism, but the question owners should be asking is, "How come we didn't see his power sooner?". Headley collected plenty of extra-base hits, including homers, in the upper minors, even though he didn't play for teams with good hitters' parks. He should be a top option at the position yet again in 2013. David Freese has a similar minor league resume, but we have yet to see him put up big power numbers at the big league level. He could be next season's Headley, albeit with fewer steals.
After letting owners down in his sophomore season, Brett Lawrie might look like a draft-day bargain heading into his third year. While he could turn things around, the fact that his slump followed him for nearly the whole season is a source of concern, especially since he got into the habit of chasing pitches out of the strike zone. That wasn't a problem for Kevin Youkilis, but his injury-proneness and increasing ground ball rate make it difficult to view him as a top 10 option at the position.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers | 1 | 1 | 11. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays | 14 | 22 |
| 2. Evan Longoria, Rays | 26 | 38 | 12. Todd Frazier, Reds | 18 | 26 |
| 3. David Wright, Mets | 6 | 6 | 13. Martin Prado, Braves | 9 | 7 |
| 4. Adrian Beltre, Rangers | 4 | 4 | 14. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox | 29 | 41 |
| 5. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers | 5 | 5 | 15. Kevin Youkilis, Yankees | 24 | 25 |
| 6. Chase Headley, Padres | 3 | 3 | 16. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates | 13 | 19 |
| 7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals | 7 | 8 | 17. Kyle Seager, Mariners | 11 | 11 |
| 8. Pablo Sandoval, Giants | 22 | 30 | 18. Trevor Plouffe, Twins | 25 | 23 |
| 9. Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers | 8 | 9 | 19. Mike Moustakas, Royals | 16 | 18 |
| 10. David Freese, Cardinals | 10 | 13 | 20. Mark Reynolds, Indians | 23 | 30 |
Shortstop
Ian Desmond was due for a breakout and he provided one in 2012, but can owners expect a repeat? He never hit more than 13 home runs in a minor league season, so his 25-homer output may defy belief, but Desmond greatly increased the distance on his long balls, so the power surge appears to be legitimate. With Troy Tulowitzki set to return from his groin injury, Josh Rutledge doesn't figure to play much shortstop, but he's a worthwhile pick at the position, since he will be eligible there while getting regular at-bats at second base. He is not a particularly patient hitter, but his combination of speed and power should continue to play well at Coors Field.
Derek Jeter gave owners a surprisingly robust season in 2012, but he built the bulk of his value over two hot months (April and August). Meanwhile, his ground ball and walk rates continued to move in the wrong directions, so chances are high that Jeter will offer owners little besides an empty .300 average and runs next season. Those expecting Alcides Escobar to remain a top 12 shortstop could be due for some frustration. His batting average may have jumped 39 points, which in turn created more stolen base opportunities, but skillwise, he was the same player as the year before. He still didn't hit for power or walk, and in fact, he struck out more often than in prior years. Escobar did get more hits on balls in play, but those rates typically vary from year to year, so without some actual skill growth, 2013 looks like a "down" year for him.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies | 37 | 51 | 11. Derek Jeter, Yankees | 6 | 5 |
| 2. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 12. Erick Aybar, Angels | 14 | 16 |
| 3. Ben Zobrist, Rays | 7 | 3 | 13. Zack Cozart, Reds | 20 | 20 |
| 4. Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers | 4 | 6 | 14. J.J. Hardy, Orioles | 15 | 12 |
| 5. Ian Desmond, Nationals | 3 | 10 | 15. Danny Espinosa, Nationals | 11 | 14 |
| 6. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians | 12 | 13 | 16. Andrelton Simmons, Braves | 53 | 45 |
| 7. Starlin Castro, Cubs | 5 | 7 | 17. Stephen Drew, Red Sox | 46 | 41 |
| 8. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies | 2 | 2 | 18. Alcides Escobar, Royals | 8 | 11 |
| 9. Josh Rutledge, Rockies | 27 | 31 | 19. Jed Lowrie, Astros | 25 | 25 |
| 10. Elvis Andrus, Rangers | 10 | 9 | 20. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers | 21 | 16 |
Outfield
A year ago, I labeled Alex Gordon a bust, but back-to-back years with a .290-plus average and 45-plus doubles can't be ignored. He has basically turned into Nick Markakis but with more run production. In other words, he has become a valuable Fantasy outfielder. The only thing that prevented Yoenis Cespedes from being a top producer was a variety of injuries that limited him to 129 games. In the time that he did play, Cespedes showed that he can do everything well: hit for power and average, drive in runs and steal bases. While he's not quite at the elite level, you could do worse for a No. 1 outfielder in standard mixed leagues.
Just missing the cutoff for this list were Mark Trumbo and Desmond Jennings. Trumbo provided a good case study of why it's best to see a full season's worth of data before assuming a player has changed his game in a lasting way. Early in 2012, Trumbo looked like he was a choosier hitter, but he reverted back to his impatient ways as the season wore on. His power is indisputable, but without a higher batting average or on-base percentage Trumbo doesn't quite have what it takes to make the top 40. Until Jennings can show the power he put on display as a rookie wasn't a fluke, he will fall a little bit short, too.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Ryan Braun, Brewers | 2 | 1 | 21. Michael Bourn, Braves | 12 | 20 |
| 2. Mike Trout, Angels | 1 | 2 | 22. Allen Craig, Cardinals | 28 | 39 |
| 3. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays | 57 | 62 | 23. Bryce Harper, Nationals | 26 | 29 |
| 4. Matt Kemp, Dodgers | 38 | 51 | 24. Adam Jones, Orioles | 6 | 5 |
| 5. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates | 3 | 3 | 25. Nick Markakis, Orioles | 70 | 68 |
| 6. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins | 15 | 35 | 26. Alex Rios, White Sox | 5 | 6 |
| 7. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies | 7 | 16 | 27. Corey Hart, Brewers | 22 | 23 |
| 8. Josh Hamilton, Rangers | 4 | 4 | 28. Austin Jackson, Tigers | 19 | 26 |
| 9. Curtis Granderson, Yankees | 8 | 8 | 29. Nick Swisher, Indians | 42 | 33 |
| 10. Matt Holliday, Cardinals | 9 | 7 | 30. Nelson Cruz, Rangers | 35 | 27 |
| 11. Jay Bruce, Reds | 16 | 11 | 31. Shane Victorino, Red Sox | 40 | 25 |
| 12. Ben Zobrist, Rays | 34 | 9 | 32. Angel Pagan, Giants | 23 | 23 |
| 13. Alex Gordon, Royals | 30 | 12 | 33. Josh Reddick, Athletics | 29 | 21 |
| 14. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics | 20 | 34 | 34. Josh Willingham, Twins | 14 | 10 |
| 15. Jason Heyward, Braves | 10 | 15 | 35. Martin Prado, Braves | 31 | 13 |
| 16. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks | 17 | 23 | 36. Andre Ethier, Dodgers | 41 | 36 |
| 17. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox | 95 | 111 | 37. Dexter Fowler, Rockies | 53 | 52 |
| 18. Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays | 25 | 40 | 38. Hunter Pence, Giants | 33 | 22 |
| 19. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds | 24 | 29 | 39. Michael Morse, Nationals | 68 | 83 |
| 20. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals | 11 | 18 | 40. B.J. Upton, Braves | 13 | 31 |
Starting Pitcher
The top 20 includes so many pitchers who have proven themselves to be ace-quality stoppers, it would be easy to underestimate a relative newbie like Chris Sale. However, he finished in top 12 for both ERA and strikeout rate and he was also among the majors' most consistent starters. Though he finished on the slow side, his command remained sharp throughout the entire season. At age 24 on opening day, Sale could get even better in 2013. Owners may also sell Adam Wainwright short after he posted a 3.94 ERA upon his return from Tommy John surgery, but his skill stats were as good as ever. Wainwright simply allowed a high percentage of the runners he did allow on base to score, but over the course of his career, that has rarely been a problem. He's a strong rebound candidate if there ever was one.
Jon Lester has similar problems with stranding runners, but unfortunately for him, his troubles didn't end there. For the second year in a row, his strikeouts per nine innings ratio dropped by more than a full strikeout. In related news, Lester got fewer swings and misses on his curveball, according to PitchFX data on Brooksbaseball.net. Those counting on a Lester comeback will have to hope that his curveball becomes a strikeout pitch once again. Owners should also be cautious when approaching Jordan Zimmermann. Though he was a top 30 pitcher this season, his overall stats were enhanced by a strong first half in which he registered a 2.61 ERA. Then he ceased getting ground balls. If that trend persists, he will have a difficult time cracking the top 40, and accordingly, he just misses making this list.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers | 4 | 4 | 21. Yu Darvish, Rangers | 27 | 28 |
| 2. Justin Verlander, Tigers | 2 | 2 | 22. James Shields, Royals | 16 | 12 |
| 3. David Price, Rays | 3 | 3 | 23. Mat Latos, Reds | 26 | 14 |
| 4. Felix Hernandez, Mariners | 14 | 10 | 24. Josh Johnson, Blue Jays | 84 | 56 |
| 5. Cliff Lee, Phillies | 36 | 23 | 25. C.J. Wilson, Angels | 60 | 36 |
| 6. Zack Greinke, Dodgers | 21 | 13 | 26. Matt Moore, Rays | 71 | 63 |
| 7. Chris Sale, White Sox | 12 | 15 | 27. Roy Halladay, Phillies | 95 | 71 |
| 8. Matt Cain, Giants | 6 | 5 | 28. Kris Medlen, Braves | 23 | 39 |
| 9. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals | 19 | 27 | 29. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks | 43 | 33 |
| 10. Johnny Cueto, Reds | 9 | 9 | 30. Dan Haren, Nationals | 88 | 66 |
| 11. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals | 5 | 7 | 31. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers | 72 | 52 |
| 12. Cole Hamels, Phillies | 7 | 6 | 32. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs | 59 | 58 |
| 13. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals | 40 | 35 | 33. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays | 46 | 81 |
| 14. Jered Weaver, Angels | 8 | 11 | 34. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants | 32 | 32 |
| 15. CC Sabathia, Yankees | 18 | 16 | 35. Ryan Dempster, Rangers | 43 | 42 |
| 16. R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 36. Jon Lester, Red Sox | 147 | 68 |
| 17. Max Scherzer, Tigers | 20 | 21 | 37. A.J. Burnett, Pirates | 29 | 24 |
| 18. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers | 30 | 20 | 38. Jonathon Niese, Mets | 38 | 30 |
| 19. Madison Bumgarner, Giants | 15 | 17 | 39. Doug Fister, Tigers | 61 | 64 |
| 20. Jake Peavy, White Sox | 24 | 19 | 40. Mike Minor, Braves | 64 | 53 |
Relief Pitcher
It's been awhile since Jonathan Papelbon was one of the very top producers in Fantasy, but despite that he should be one of the first relievers off the board. Consistency is rare among closers, so the best targets aren't necessarily the ones who performed the best the year before. Papelbon has notched 30 or more saves and struck out more than a batter per inning in seven consecutive seasons. Only once during that span did he finish with an ERA above 3.00. That's a tough record to beat. Hisashi Iwakuma doesn't have much of a major league track record yet, but he excelled as a starter in his first year in Seattle. He will still have reliever eligibility next year, so owners in leagues with RP spots will get all of those good starter innings without using an SP spot to get them.
I initially had omitted Jim Johnson from these rankings due to concerns over his low strikeout rate, but had second thoughts after realizing he more than compensates for that with an extremely high ground ball rate and low walk rate. Because he avoids home runs, hits on balls in play and walks, it's unfair to lump him in with other contact-pitching closers like Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton (yes, he's a contact pitcher now), and he does belong in the top 20. To make room for Johnson, I've jettisoned Joel Hanrahan, whose inconsistent ability to limit home runs and walks could get him into trouble now that he has left the roomy confines of PNC Park.
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| 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | 2012 Roto Rank | 2012 H2H Rank | ||
| 1. Kris Medlen, Braves | 23 | 10 | 11. Chris Perez, Indians | 76 | 26 |
| 2. Aroldis Chapman, Reds | 11 | 5 | 12. Sergio Romo, Giants | 81 | 96 |
| 3. Craig Kimbrel, Braves | 10 | 3 | 13. Mariano Rivera, Yankees | N/A | N/A |
| 4. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies | 28 | 9 | 14. Jim Johnson, Orioles | 35 | 4 |
| 5. Fernando Rodney, Rays | 13 | 1 | 15. Drew Storen, Nationals | 232 | N/A |
| 6. Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners | 89 | 31 | 16. Ryan Madson, Angels | DNP | DNP |
| 7. Joe Nathan, Rangers | 42 | 11 | 17. Addison Reed, White Sox | 99 | 24 |
| 8. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks | 74 | 24 | 18. John Axford, Brewers | 60 | 15 |
| 9. Alexi Ogando, Rangers | 99 | 24 | 19. Tom Wilhelmsen, Mariners | 47 | 13 |
| 10. Jason Motte, Cardinals | 25 | 6 | 20. Wade Davis, Royals | 141 | 73 |
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e- mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .
