Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Fantasy outlooks: San Diego Padres

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

The biggest offseason move made by the San Diego Padres? Bringing in the fences at PETCO Park, a decision that should inject a little more pop to the power-starved Padres, who finished with the third-fewest home runs in baseball last season. A good deal of this 2013 power production rests on the shoulders of Chase Headley, the team's third baseman. Headley fulfilled years of potential in 2012, hitting a career high 31 home runs in 604 at-bats. But this power surge came somewhat unexpectedly -- after many Fantasy owners had given up on Headley ever developing a big bat. In an injury-shortened 2011, Headley had just four home runs in 381 at-bats. And his previous career high was 12, despite getting more than 540 at-bats twice in prior years. Was 2012 a fluke? Or was it a breakout season at age 28?

Headley had flexed power in the minors before joining the Padres, but he produced a curious set of stats in 2012 -- his ground ball rate was the highest of his career and his home run-to-fly-ball ratio took an unbelievable leap to 21.4 percent (per Fangraphs.com), meaning one of every five fly balls Headley hit was a home run. And he wasn't hitting fly balls very often. Headley's highest HR/FB rate before 2012 was 10.7 percent. This all seems to set Headley up for a heavy correction in 2013, but the fences being moved in may help mask the regression in power.

While Headley's power may take a dip, outfielder Carlos Quentin -- who had his 2012 decimated by knee issues -- should be a nice sleeper candidate for 2013 (see below). The team won't be short on speed, either, led by Everth Cabrera, who stole a National League-leading 44 bases last year despite getting just 398 at-bats. The Padres were second in baseball in steals last year, with Cameron Maybin (26 stolen bases), Will Venable (24) and Headley (17) complementing Cabrera's basepath prowess. Even pitcher Anthony Bass stole a base.

2013 Fantasy Outlooks
A.L. East N.L. East
Orioles Braves
Red Sox Marlins
Yankees Mets
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Nationals
A.L. Central N.L. Central
White Sox Cubs
Indians Reds
Tigers Brewers
Royals Pirates
Twins Cardinals
A.L. West N.L. West
Astros Diamondbacks
Angels Rockies
Athletics Dodgers
Mariners Padres
Rangers Giants

On the pitching side of things, the Padres have a long list of could-go-either-way starters, let by Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard, who combined to win 25 games in 2012. Volquez led the league with 105 walks, but still struck out about a batter per inning, while Richard kept his walks low but came nowhere near Volquez's level of strikeouts. Both pitchers enjoyed favorable home/road splits, as Volquez sported a 2.95 ERA with three home runs allowed at home and 5.60 ERA with 11 home runs on the road, while Richard had a 3.02 ERA and 10 home runs at home and 4.74 ERA and 21 home runs on the road. With the cozy confines of PETCO becoming a little less cozy for pitchers this season, both Volquez and Richard could see their numbers rise (although probably nothing drastic).

The bullpen features one of baseball's most underrated closers in Huston Street. While always a candidate to lose some games to injury, Street still managed a 1.85 ERA and 0.72 WHIP last year, along with 23 saves, in 40 games. More importantly, the closer role in San Diego has been a virtual lock for 40 saves, dating back to the mid-1990s, when Trevor Hoffman would regularly record 40 or more. Heath Bell continued the trend for the next three years and Street led a bullpen that hit 40 saves total last year. A healthy Street is a really solid late-round addition to Fantasy bullpens.

2013 projected lineup
Player Name Position
1. Everth Cabrera SS
2. Logan Forsythe 2B
3. Chase Headley 3B
4. Carlos Quentin LF
5. Yonder Alonso 1B
6. Will Venable RF
7. Cameron Maybin CF
8. Nick Hundley C
Bench Chris Denorfia OF
Bench Alexi Amarista IF
Bench Jesus Guzman OF/IF

In suspension news, keep in mind while drafting that catcher Yasmani Grandal will miss the first 50 games of the season after testing positive for PEDs. Nick Hundley should handle catching duties while Grandal sits.

Sleeper ... Carlos Quentin, outfielder

Quentin has become a sort of forgotten man for the Padres. In 86 games last year, he hit 16 home runs and managed an .877 OPS -- the second-highest OPS of his career. And this was while he was returning from knee surgery and then battling issues that arose throughout the season with the same knee. But with Quentin looking like he's healthy heading into 2013, we could see a power-hitting renaissance from the 30-year-old. Quentin has never seen 500 at-bats in a season, but has put up campaigns of 36, 21, 26 and 24 home runs. He's also a threat to hit 30 doubles. His average, which could float anywhere between .250 and .270, is nothing to get excited about, but he should pop up in games with a good amount of runners to drive in. For a late-round pick, Quentin could return a lot of value to a Fantasy owner willing to take an optimistic view on his health.

Deep sleeper ... Andrew Cashner, starting pitcher

Thanks to an unfortunate hunting accident in the offseason, Cashner may not be ready to go at the start of the year. But when he does, he has a few Fantasy elements working in his favor. First, in points leagues, Cashner will have relief pitcher eligibility, meaning owners who may have missed out on Kris Medlen or Aroldis Chapman could still snag Cashner late as a consolation prize. And second, although his 4.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP from last year don't exactly look stellar, Cashner missed time and probably returned too early from a strained lat, eventually having to be shut down late in the season. He will enter 2013 -- at some point, possibly as early as mid-April -- as a starter. With some really stellar minor league numbers behind him (a 2.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 205 1/3 minor league innings, mostly as a starter), Cashner could be an absolute steal in NL-only drafts. Beware of him later in the year, though, as Cashner has yet to eclipse 120 innings in a season and will likely have some kind of cap.

Points league gem ... Yonder Alonso, first baseman

2013 rotation/bullpen
Player Name Throws
1. Edinson Volquez RHP
2. Clayton Richard LHP
3. Jason Marquis RHP
4. Freddy Garcia RHP
5. Andrew Cashner RHP
ALT Eric Stults LHP
Bullpen Breakdown
1. Huston Street RHP
2. Luke Gregerson RHP
3. Dale Thayer RHP
4. Joe Thatcher LHP
5. Anthony Bass RHP

Here's a fun fact about Yonder Alonso: he finished 16th in MLB with 39 doubles last year (good for eighth in the National League). Alonso also hit nine home runs, batted .273 and stole three bases. Granted, he struck out 101 times, which is never fun for points-leaguers, but he somewhat offset those with 62 walks. His strikeouts weren't even in the top 50 of NL batters -- his walks had him 19th. Alonso can go one of two ways in 2013. He can either continue to be an Alex Gordon-style doubles machine, improving on his rookie season and hitting 45 or so doubles while maintaining a nice average; or he can build on his 2012 and turn some of those doubles into home runs (as he did show some nice power flashes in the minors as a prospect coming up with Cincinnati). A hybrid of the two scenarios is definitely possible, but the point here is that Alonso had a very nice table-setting rookie year in 2012 and there's no real reason to think he will falter, outside of some subjective gut feeling that he will fall victim to a sophomore slump.

Prospects Report

The most tantalizing prospect in the stacked San Diego system is Jedd Gyorko, a 24-year-old power hitter who can play second or third base. Gyorko has a .319 career minor league average with 55 home runs in the last two seasons, split across three levels. There's a chance Gyorko can make the team out of spring training as a second baseman, which would move either Everth Cabrera or Logan Forsythe to the bench. A more likely scenario, however, would be San Diego falling out of contention near the end of July and the team trading Chase Headley to make room for Gyorko at third base. In either case, Gyorko is worth a late stash in NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues. ... Baseball America considers pitcher Casey Kelly the top Padres prospect. Kelly had a 6.21 ERA in six starts for the team last year, but this was after missing three months with a strained elbow ligament. The 23-year-old has great control, doesn't issue a ton of walks and could turn out to be a fairly decent strikeout pitcher. He could be in the rotation by mid-season in 2013. ... Rymer Liriano has some impressive speed and could develop into a nice power hitter. Still just 21, the outfielder has at least another year of minor league seasoning before he shows up in San Diego…

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Indians' Mike Aviles in, Jose Ramirez out of lineup Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:55 am ET) Indians infielder Mike Aviles is in the starting lineup Sunday, batting second and playing shortstop in his team's matchup with the Tigers.

Aviles is seeing just his second start of the season at shortstop, as most of his work has come in the oufield. He'll take the place of Jose Ramirez, who had started 10 straight games coming into Sunday.

The Indians have also made a change at the top of the lineup, moving second baseman Jason Kipnis to the leadoff spot. Kipnis and Aviles batted 1-2 in the team's last start against a southpaw, and lefty Kyle Lobstein is on the mound of the Tigers Sunday. Center fielder and typical leadoff man Michael Bourn will bat ninth.

The Indians are road favorites (-115) in Detroit Sunday.


Mariners promote Roenis Elias, option Lucas Luetge
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:46 am ET) The Mariners called up pitcher Roenis Elias from Triple-A Tacoma Sunday, optioning pitcher Lucas Luetge to Tacoma in a corresponding move.

Elias is set to start Sunday's game against the Twins in place of Hisashi Iwakuma, who is on the disabled list with a lat injury. Elias went 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 143:64 K:BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings across 29 starts for the Mariners last season.


Dodgers' Brandon McCarthy (elbow) hoping for tendinitis
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:43 am ET) Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy is hoping that the elbow injury that forced him from Saturday's start against the Padres is merely tendinitis, MLB.com reports.

Initial tests on the elbow came back negative for ligament damage, so it's possible the injury will only be a short-term one for McCarthy, who gave up six earned runs in five-plus innings Saturday before being removed. He has posted an ugly 5.87 ERA through four starts but is 3-0 with an excellent 29:4 K:BB ratio in 23 innings.


Reds' Devin Mesoraco (hip), Jay Bruce out of lineup Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:30 am ET) Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco and right fielder Jay Bruce are not in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against the Cubs.

Mesoraco has seen just two plate appearances as a pinch-hitter in the last two weeks as he continues to deal with left hip impingement. Brayan Pena gets the call behind the plate and will bat eighth.

Bruce has started each of the team's first 17 games in right field but will get his first break of the season Sunday. With Bruce on the bench, first baseman Joey Votto is the only player on the team to have started every gamethis season. Brennan Boesch will man right field and bat fifth in the team's matchup against righty Jake Arrieta.

The Reds are home underdogs (+105) Sunday.


Report: Cardinals' Adam Wainwright (Achilles) likely out for season
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:22 am ET) Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright has yet to undergo an MRI after exiting Saturday's start with an Achilles injury, but the expectation is that he'll miss the remainder of the season, FOX Sports reports.

Wainwright appeared to suffer the injury during one of his own at-bats, stumbling out of the batter's box. The Cardinals announced that the pitcher suffered an ankle injury, and the pitcher himself said after the game that the injury was in the back of the ankle.

Wainwright is 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA and 18:3 K:BB ratio in 25 innings. With Jaime Garcia (shoulder) and Triple-A starter Marco Gonzales (pectoral) still on the mend, the team could turn to Triple-A pitcher Tyler Lyons or long-reliever Carlos Villanueva to fill Wainwright's rotation spot for the immediate future, with Garcia or Gonzales likely to enter the rotation when healthy if Wainwright is dealing with a season-ending injury.


Indians' Trevor Bauer (illness) penciled in to start Tuesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:13 am ET) Indians pticher Trevor Bauer (illness) is listed as the probable starter for Tuesday's matchup with the Royals.

Bauer had to be scratched from Saturday's scheduled start against the Tigers at the last minute due to food poisoning. He'll look to put a cap on his excellent April in a home start Tuesday. Bauer is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 26:11 K:BB ratio in 19 innings.


Rays' Tim Beckham drives in winning run Saturday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:58 am ET) Rays infielder Tim Beckham continues to show his potential in the big leagues. Beckham ripped a two-run double in the eighth inning off Miguel Castro to break a 2-2 tie. 

"I was just hoping I had a chance to get another at-bat, man," Beckham said to MLB.com. "I struck out twice tonight looking. I wasn't too happy about that. That's not what I like to do. Nobody likes to do it. But I definitely don't like to strike out looking. Just wanted to get another AB, and another opportunity to hit the ball hard. Hopefully some runners on base and get some RBIs."

Beckham was given the green light to swing on a 3-0 count and delivered.

"I didn't get it clean off the barrel, but I put a good swing on it," Beckham said. "He was throwing the ball pretty hard. Thought I had enough to get it out of here."

Beckham is hitting .275 with five RBI in 40 at-bats this season.


Dodgers' Andre Ethier smacks second home run of 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:54 am ET) Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier went 3 for 4 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday.

Ethier, starting for the injured Yasiel Puig, found success early and often, slugging a home run in the first inning off of Ian Kennedy to drive in Jimmy Rollins, his second of the season. Ethier then doubled in the fifth inning and singled to center in the eighth to drive in another run.

Ethier is now hitting .353 with six RBI in 34 at-bats this season.


Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe connects for first home run
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:51 am ET) Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe went 1 for 5 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday. Uribe did his damage in the fifth inning when he smashed a 1-1 pitch from Ian Kennedy over the right field wall for a two-run home run, his first of the season.

Uribe is now hitting .244 with three RBI in 45 at-bats this season.


Dodgers' Howie Kendrick rips third homer of the year
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:48 am ET) Dodgers second baseman Howie Kendrick went 1 for 5 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday.

Kendrick did his only damage in the fifth inning when he ripped a 2-2 pitch from Ian Kennedy over the center field wall for a two-run home run, his third of the season. Kendrick is now hitting .308 with 12 RBI in 65 at-bats this season.


 
 
 
Rankings