Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
2013 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Fantasy outlooks: San Diego Padres

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

The biggest offseason move made by the San Diego Padres? Bringing in the fences at PETCO Park, a decision that should inject a little more pop to the power-starved Padres, who finished with the third-fewest home runs in baseball last season. A good deal of this 2013 power production rests on the shoulders of Chase Headley, the team's third baseman. Headley fulfilled years of potential in 2012, hitting a career high 31 home runs in 604 at-bats. But this power surge came somewhat unexpectedly -- after many Fantasy owners had given up on Headley ever developing a big bat. In an injury-shortened 2011, Headley had just four home runs in 381 at-bats. And his previous career high was 12, despite getting more than 540 at-bats twice in prior years. Was 2012 a fluke? Or was it a breakout season at age 28?

Headley had flexed power in the minors before joining the Padres, but he produced a curious set of stats in 2012 -- his ground ball rate was the highest of his career and his home run-to-fly-ball ratio took an unbelievable leap to 21.4 percent (per Fangraphs.com), meaning one of every five fly balls Headley hit was a home run. And he wasn't hitting fly balls very often. Headley's highest HR/FB rate before 2012 was 10.7 percent. This all seems to set Headley up for a heavy correction in 2013, but the fences being moved in may help mask the regression in power.

While Headley's power may take a dip, outfielder Carlos Quentin -- who had his 2012 decimated by knee issues -- should be a nice sleeper candidate for 2013 (see below). The team won't be short on speed, either, led by Everth Cabrera, who stole a National League-leading 44 bases last year despite getting just 398 at-bats. The Padres were second in baseball in steals last year, with Cameron Maybin (26 stolen bases), Will Venable (24) and Headley (17) complementing Cabrera's basepath prowess. Even pitcher Anthony Bass stole a base.

2013 Fantasy Outlooks
A.L. East N.L. East
Orioles Braves
Red Sox Marlins
Yankees Mets
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Nationals
A.L. Central N.L. Central
White Sox Cubs
Indians Reds
Tigers Brewers
Royals Pirates
Twins Cardinals
A.L. West N.L. West
Astros Diamondbacks
Angels Rockies
Athletics Dodgers
Mariners Padres
Rangers Giants

On the pitching side of things, the Padres have a long list of could-go-either-way starters, let by Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard, who combined to win 25 games in 2012. Volquez led the league with 105 walks, but still struck out about a batter per inning, while Richard kept his walks low but came nowhere near Volquez's level of strikeouts. Both pitchers enjoyed favorable home/road splits, as Volquez sported a 2.95 ERA with three home runs allowed at home and 5.60 ERA with 11 home runs on the road, while Richard had a 3.02 ERA and 10 home runs at home and 4.74 ERA and 21 home runs on the road. With the cozy confines of PETCO becoming a little less cozy for pitchers this season, both Volquez and Richard could see their numbers rise (although probably nothing drastic).

The bullpen features one of baseball's most underrated closers in Huston Street. While always a candidate to lose some games to injury, Street still managed a 1.85 ERA and 0.72 WHIP last year, along with 23 saves, in 40 games. More importantly, the closer role in San Diego has been a virtual lock for 40 saves, dating back to the mid-1990s, when Trevor Hoffman would regularly record 40 or more. Heath Bell continued the trend for the next three years and Street led a bullpen that hit 40 saves total last year. A healthy Street is a really solid late-round addition to Fantasy bullpens.

2013 projected lineup
Player Name Position
1. Everth Cabrera SS
2. Logan Forsythe 2B
3. Chase Headley 3B
4. Carlos Quentin LF
5. Yonder Alonso 1B
6. Will Venable RF
7. Cameron Maybin CF
8. Nick Hundley C
Bench Chris Denorfia OF
Bench Alexi Amarista IF
Bench Jesus Guzman OF/IF

In suspension news, keep in mind while drafting that catcher Yasmani Grandal will miss the first 50 games of the season after testing positive for PEDs. Nick Hundley should handle catching duties while Grandal sits.

Sleeper ... Carlos Quentin, outfielder

Quentin has become a sort of forgotten man for the Padres. In 86 games last year, he hit 16 home runs and managed an .877 OPS -- the second-highest OPS of his career. And this was while he was returning from knee surgery and then battling issues that arose throughout the season with the same knee. But with Quentin looking like he's healthy heading into 2013, we could see a power-hitting renaissance from the 30-year-old. Quentin has never seen 500 at-bats in a season, but has put up campaigns of 36, 21, 26 and 24 home runs. He's also a threat to hit 30 doubles. His average, which could float anywhere between .250 and .270, is nothing to get excited about, but he should pop up in games with a good amount of runners to drive in. For a late-round pick, Quentin could return a lot of value to a Fantasy owner willing to take an optimistic view on his health.

Deep sleeper ... Andrew Cashner, starting pitcher

Thanks to an unfortunate hunting accident in the offseason, Cashner may not be ready to go at the start of the year. But when he does, he has a few Fantasy elements working in his favor. First, in points leagues, Cashner will have relief pitcher eligibility, meaning owners who may have missed out on Kris Medlen or Aroldis Chapman could still snag Cashner late as a consolation prize. And second, although his 4.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP from last year don't exactly look stellar, Cashner missed time and probably returned too early from a strained lat, eventually having to be shut down late in the season. He will enter 2013 -- at some point, possibly as early as mid-April -- as a starter. With some really stellar minor league numbers behind him (a 2.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 205 1/3 minor league innings, mostly as a starter), Cashner could be an absolute steal in NL-only drafts. Beware of him later in the year, though, as Cashner has yet to eclipse 120 innings in a season and will likely have some kind of cap.

Points league gem ... Yonder Alonso, first baseman

2013 rotation/bullpen
Player Name Throws
1. Edinson Volquez RHP
2. Clayton Richard LHP
3. Jason Marquis RHP
4. Freddy Garcia RHP
5. Andrew Cashner RHP
ALT Eric Stults LHP
Bullpen Breakdown
1. Huston Street RHP
2. Luke Gregerson RHP
3. Dale Thayer RHP
4. Joe Thatcher LHP
5. Anthony Bass RHP

Here's a fun fact about Yonder Alonso: he finished 16th in MLB with 39 doubles last year (good for eighth in the National League). Alonso also hit nine home runs, batted .273 and stole three bases. Granted, he struck out 101 times, which is never fun for points-leaguers, but he somewhat offset those with 62 walks. His strikeouts weren't even in the top 50 of NL batters -- his walks had him 19th. Alonso can go one of two ways in 2013. He can either continue to be an Alex Gordon-style doubles machine, improving on his rookie season and hitting 45 or so doubles while maintaining a nice average; or he can build on his 2012 and turn some of those doubles into home runs (as he did show some nice power flashes in the minors as a prospect coming up with Cincinnati). A hybrid of the two scenarios is definitely possible, but the point here is that Alonso had a very nice table-setting rookie year in 2012 and there's no real reason to think he will falter, outside of some subjective gut feeling that he will fall victim to a sophomore slump.

Prospects Report

The most tantalizing prospect in the stacked San Diego system is Jedd Gyorko, a 24-year-old power hitter who can play second or third base. Gyorko has a .319 career minor league average with 55 home runs in the last two seasons, split across three levels. There's a chance Gyorko can make the team out of spring training as a second baseman, which would move either Everth Cabrera or Logan Forsythe to the bench. A more likely scenario, however, would be San Diego falling out of contention near the end of July and the team trading Chase Headley to make room for Gyorko at third base. In either case, Gyorko is worth a late stash in NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues. ... Baseball America considers pitcher Casey Kelly the top Padres prospect. Kelly had a 6.21 ERA in six starts for the team last year, but this was after missing three months with a strained elbow ligament. The 23-year-old has great control, doesn't issue a ton of walks and could turn out to be a fairly decent strikeout pitcher. He could be in the rotation by mid-season in 2013. ... Rymer Liriano has some impressive speed and could develop into a nice power hitter. Still just 21, the outfielder has at least another year of minor league seasoning before he shows up in San Diego…

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

  •  
 
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Brett Anderson set to return Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:54 pm ET) Rockies pitcher Brett Anderson will be activated from the disabled list in time to start Sunday's game against the Twins, the Denver Post reports.

Anderson has been sidelined since mid-April while recovering from a broken finger, and with Yohan Flande returning to the minors earlier this week, the team appears ready to bring Anderson back into the fold. He owns a 3.60 ERA and 5:5 K:BB ratio in 15 innings.


Wrist, ankle soreness sideline Adam Eaton
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(1:46 pm ET) White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is likely to take the last two games before the All-Star break off, as he deals with a variety of maladies, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

Eaton is out of the lineup Saturday against the Indians due to soreness in his left wrist and right ankle, and manager Robin Ventura said he is likely to sit out Sunday's game as well. He will take the week off to rest during the All-Star break, before attempting to return to the lineup. 


Henderson Alvarez named All-Star replacement
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:35 pm ET) Marlins pitcher Henderson Alvarez has been named a replacement for the National League All-Star team, the Sun Sentinel reports.

Alvarez was hammered in his last start, surrendering six earned runs in five innings, but he had only given up seven earned runs in his previous nine starts combined before the poor outing. He owns a 2.63 ERA and 73:22 K:BB ratio in 120 innings.


Hamstring injury keeps Munenori Kawasaki out Saturday
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(1:27 pm ET) Blue Jays infielder Munenori Kawasaki is not in the starting lineup for Saturday's game against the Rays, after leaving the team's previous game due to a hamstring injury. He is day to day moving forward. 

Astros set second-half rotation
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(1:21 pm ET) The Astros have set their rotation following the All-Star break, at least through the first two series.

Manager Bo Porter announced that Scott Feldman, Dallas Keuchel and Jarred Cosart will open the second half in a weekend series against the White Sox, and will be followed by Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock to open a series in Oakland beginning Tuesday. 


Matt Lindstrom completes first bullpen session
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(1:18 pm ET) White Sox pitcher Matt Lindstrom threw a bullpen session Saturday, the team announced.

Lindstrom, who is working his way back from a tendon injury in his ankle, tossed 30 pitches in the bullpen without issue. He also took some fielding practice, including covering first base, and the team reports it went well.

Lindstrom has been out since May 19 and is targeting a return in late August. 


Jonathon Niese to throw Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:18 pm ET) Mets pitcher Jonathon Niese will throw Sunday, and if all goes well, he could still make his return the following Sunday against the Padres, ESPNNewYork.com reports.

Niese was removed from his start on July 4 after just 12 pitches when a line drive struck him in his side before being placed on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. He owns a 2.96 ERA and 74:28 K:BB ratio in 103 1/3 innings.


Bartolo Colon named Friday starter
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:13 pm ET) Mets pitcher Bartolo Colon will be the starter in San Diego Friday for the team's first game after the All-Star break, ESPNNewYork.com reports.

Colon turned in a quality start in his last outing after giving up five earned runs in two straight starts. He owns a 3.99 ERA and 89:17 K:BB ratio in 121 2/3 innings.


Ryan Hanigan remains out Saturday
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(1:09 pm ET) Rays catcher Ryan Hanigan is out of the lineup yet again Saturday, due to soreness in his left side.

Hanigan was a late scratch from Friday's game as a result of the injury, and is day to day moving forward at this point. 


Cardinals option Audry Perez to Triple-A
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:08 pm ET) The Cardinals optioned catcher Audry Perez to Triple-A Memphis Saturday.

Perez drew a walk in his only plate appearance with the team. He heads back to Triple-A after the Cardinals claimed catcher George Kottaras off waivers Friday.


 
 
 
Rankings