Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Draft Prep: Al Melchior's Roto strategies

  •  

More Rotisserie strategies: Scott White | Nando Di Fino

Rotisserie leagues have their own flavor, and with the focus on a limited number of categories, certain stats take on added importance. Home runs, stolen bases and pitcher strikeouts, for example, have just a little more weight.

What implications does this have for a draft strategy? While having (in most formats) a relatively small set of categories may simplify the process of ranking and evaluating players, some aspects of this style of play are not as simple as they may seem on the surface.

Here are four guidelines that can smooth your way through a Rotisserie draft. While every draft is unique, these principles are aimed at helping you to find the best value for your roster, regardless of the size and rules of your league.

1. Target closers-in-waiting

In standard 12-team leagues, nearly every owner should be able to get two reliable closers, but getting a third productive reliever could really put your team ahead of the curve. However, the bottom of the closer barrel doesn't offer the most appetizing options. Whether you're in this situation or you're an owner in a deeper league just trying to get a decent second reliever, your best alternative is probably to target a pitcher who hasn't yet been annointed as a closer. Recall that three of last season's best closers -- Fernando Rodney, Aroldis Chapman and Rafael Soriano -- did not enter the regular season as their team's ninth-inning specialist. Several of this season's opening day closers are likely to lose their roles due to injuries or ineffectiveness, and that opens the door for a "closer-in-waiting" to emerge from the setup ranks. Not only does it pay to identify teams with shaky closer situations, but to find the relievers on those teams who post closer-like ERAs, WHIPs and strikeout rates. (Paging Kenley Jansen, Ernesto Frieri and Joaquin Benoit ...)

2. Power/speed threats come at a premium

Potentially Exclusive Company
Projected to Reach or Come Near 20/20
HR SB
Mike Trout, OF, Angels 31 45
Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers 23 35
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox 17 34
B.J. Upton, OF, Braves 22 32
Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers 38 29
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers 35 27
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers 24 27
Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals 22 26
Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies 20 26
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians 17 26
Andrew McCuthen, OF, Pirates 28 24
Jason Heyward, OF, Braves 30 22
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies 28 22
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals 26 22
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox 18 22
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals 17 22
Alex Rios, OF, White Sox 21 21
Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals 20 21
Justin Ruggiano, OF, Marlins 17 20
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Athletics 27 19
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Dodgers 23 19
Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners 23 18
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals 21 18
Justin Upton, OF, Braves 26 17
Ben Zobrist, OF, Rays 21 18

After declining in four of the last five seasons, home runs made a comeback in 2012, as major leaguers swatted a total of 4,934 of them, up from 4,552 a year before. They also maintained most of the spike in stolen bases they created in 2011, but these trends didn't generate an explosion of speed/power threats for Fantasy. Only 10 players made the 20/20 club in 2012, as compared with 12 from the prior season. In other words, despite the recent uptick in homers and steals, there are still just a handful of players who can be counted on to make a sizeable impact in both categories. We are currently projecting 14 players with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases for the 2013 season, and on Draft Day, owners should keep an eye on the remaining members of this list as the draft progresses. Players like Carlos Gomez and Danny Espinosa may just be middle-round options due to their questionable ability to help with batting average, but both are worth keeping in your draft queue because of their unique speed/power combination. Also, bear in mind that if you plan on targeting spots on your roster for these players, you will most likely be using outfield, second base or shortstop slots on them.

3. Don't chase wins

It's true that pitchers on teams that win tend to do better in the Wins category than their counterparts on losing teams. That doesn't mean that it's a good idea to target pitchers based on which uniform they wear or their history in the category. For one thing, it's not always easy to tell which teams will be "good," as the Orioles, Athletics and Red Sox showed last year. Also, a team can lack wins due to the quality of their pitchers (and not the other way around), and as we saw with R.A. Dickey, A.J. Burnett and Jason Vargas last season, an able pitcher can post a good record on a team that doesn't score many runs. Then there are always the hard-luck losers, like Cliff Lee and Jeremy Hellickson in 2012, who suffer from unexpectedly poor run support and are saddled with losing records despite low ERAs. Owners are best off to draft pitchers who do well in the other categories, and typically, the wins will follow. Then you won't make the mistake of drafting someone like Tim Hudson (16 wins in 2012, current 223 ADP) or Matt Harrison (18 wins, 237 ADP) a couple of rounds earlier than you need to.

4. Strikeouts for hitters may be more relevant than you think

While standard Rotisserie formats don't include strikeouts as a category for hitters, that doesn't mean that strikeout trends are something that Roto owners can ignore. Of course, an increase in strikeouts puts a hitter at risk of losing points on his batting average (unless he manages to get more hits on balls in play), and you can't hit for extra-base power when you don't make contact with the ball. Last season, Kendrys Morales provided an example of the domino effect of a surging strikeout rate. Though he experienced only minor decreases in his flyball and home run per flyball rates, Morales' at-bat per home run ratio increased from 17.5 in his injury-shortened 2010 campaign (his most recent season) to 22.0 in 2012. He also lost 17 points on his batting average, and his RBI and runs scored per at-bat dropped precipitously, and all of this can be linked -- either directly or indirectly -- to Morales' strikeout rate jumping by nearly 50 percent. Owners in standard and shallow leagues may not be that concerned about a middle-round option like Morales, but high-end batters like Josh Hamilton and Curtis Granderson, whose strikeout rates are trending in the wrong direction, come with risks that all Rotisserie owners should note.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also send us an email us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Athletics RF Josh Reddick (back) doubtful for Monday's game
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(1:44 am ET) Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick is doubtful for Monday's game against the Orioles, according to CSN Bay Area.

“Maybe doubtful tomorrow, but I don’t think it’s enough to where we have to worry about long term,” manager Bob Melvin said.

Reddick left Sunday's game due to lower back tightness. He believed he injured his back while making a play on a foul ball.

“It’s a lot better than when it initially happened,” Reddick said. “My back locked up and started spasming out. After the play I went back and watched it. From what I gathered, it looked like it happened from me avoiding the ballboy, who didn’t move one bit. … Nothing serious. Hopefully it’s something that’s just day to day. I’m sure with Bob (being cautious), I probably won’t start tomorrow. I’ll get some more treatment done so I’ll be ready to go Tuesday.”


Mariners RP Vidal Nuno to make spot start on Tuesday
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(1:40 am ET) Mariners relief pitcher Vidal Nuno will start for his team against the Rockies on Tuesday, according to the Seattle Times.

Nuno last started a game on July 5, but it was for Triple-A Tacoma during a brief demotion.

“It’s just another day,” he said. “Now I just have to go 80 to 100 pitches and set the tone of the game.”

The Mariners are confident Nuno can provide the rotation some much needed rest.

“He can go five easily if we need him to,” McClendon said. “He’s very durable and he’s rested.”


Diamondbacks' Chase Anderson strikes out three in rehab game
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:26 am ET) Diamondbacks starting pitcher Chase Anderson tossed four innings during a Rookie League rehab game on Sunday.

Anderson allowed four hits and struck out three batters, but did not allow any runs in what was a solid performance.

Anderson is on the 15-day disabled list with a triceps injury.


Cubs C Miguel Montero goes 1 for 3 in rehab game Sunday
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:24 am ET) Cubs catcher Miguel Montero went 1 for 3 in a Double-A rehab game on Sunday.

Montero is out of commission with a thumb injury.


Phillies 2B Chase Utley gets two hits in rehab game
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:21 am ET) Phillies second baseman Chase Utley went 2 for 3 with a walk and two singles in a Triple-A rehab game on Sunday.

Utley is on the 15-day disabled list with an ankle injury.


Nationals SP Jordan Zimmermann gives up five runs in loss
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(8/2/2015) Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann was not sharp during his start against the Mets on Sunday.

Zimmermann gave up five runs on six hits in six innings of work. He struggled at times with his location, as he allowed a season-high three home runs. Zimmermann did manage to strike out seven batters, but the damage from the home runs he allowed proved too costly.

With the loss, Zimmermann dropped to 8-7 this season with a 3.57 ERA.


Mets closer Tyler Clippard notches 18th save of the season
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(8/2/2015) Mets closer Tyler Clippard closed out the ninth inning of his team's win over the Nationals on Sunday with ease.

Clippard gave up one hit, but then put away Washington to pick up his 18th save of the season. He has a 2.55 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of relief.


Mets SP Noah Syndergaard strikes out nine in win over Nats
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(8/2/2015) Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard was dominant during his start against the Nationals on Sunday.

Syndergaard allowed just two runs on seven hits over eight innings of work. He struck out nine batters and didn't allow a single a walk. Syndergaard made a pair of mistakes on two solo home runs, but was simply masterful besides that.

With the win, Syndergaard improved to 6-5 on the season with an impressive 2.66 ERA.


Cubs' Dan Haren considering retirement after this season
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(8/2/2015) Cubs pitcher Dan Haren is planning to retire after this season, he said on Sunday, per MLB.com.

"I would say right now the chances are this will probably be it," he said. 

He wasn't willing to commit to the plan, 100 percent, however. "I don't want to say this is it and pull a Brett Favre," he said


Brewers not sure of Kyle Lohse's rotation spot
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(8/2/2015) Brewers pitcher Kyle Lohse is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation, manager Craig Counsell said on Sunday. 

Lohse is 5-13 with a 6.31 ERA after Sunday's loss.

"He was in a lot of trouble all day," Counsell said, per MLB.com. "There was trouble pretty much every inning and it was big trouble. He struggled today and we need better from him."

"We have to discuss that in the next few days," Counsell said of Lohse's status in the rotation.


 
 
 
Rankings