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2013 Draft Prep: Al Melchior's Breakouts

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Mike Trout had the ultimate breakout performance a year ago, but he was far from being from the only young player to exceed expectations.

Chase Headley, Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson, Ian Desmond and Max Scherzer were just a few of the players to take notable leaps in their Fantasy value in 2012, and each provided a nice return for the owners who drafted them. Yet each of them showed signs of their upside potential, and there are similar players waiting to be taken in this year's drafts.

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Players tabbed as breakout candidates are far from sure things to outperform their draft position, but they are the ones who have the greatest potential to do so, and possibly by a wide margin. I've identified a dozen breakout candidates for 2013, and only a few are currently being taken in the earlier rounds on average in CBSSports.com leagues. That's the way it should be with breakouts, as they are typically high-risk, high-reward types that you should avoid as you're filling out your first few roster spots.

What these 12 players have in common, aside from relative youth, is a past history -- usually in the minor leagues -- of better skill indicators than what they have shown recently. Just as Scherzer's minor league K-rates and Headley's minor league power numbers suggested further improvement, the players profiled here have a track record that at least opens up the possibility of a great leap forward.

Jesus Montero, C, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 10, H2H: Rd. 13)

As a prospect, Montero was an enticing Fantasy keeper in long-term leagues not only because of the power he brought to the catcher position, but also because he could hit for average. In his rookie season, Montero did neither, but the potential is still there for him to deliver on both. His batting average was held down by a .293 BABIP that could have easily been higher given his 23 percent line drive rate. Montero didn't have great power at home or on the road, but with a year of experience under his belt and the Safeco Field fences coming in, he could make the jump from 15 homers to 20-plus homers.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 25)

When Belt zoomed through the Giants' system in 2010, he displayed an impressive combination of home run power, gap power and a good understanding of the strike zone. The home run power was present during his 2011 rookie campaign, but the latter two were lacking. Then last season, Belt's doubles and triples power emerged, but his home run power dissipated. The increase in line drive power that Belt experienced came mostly at the expense of his grounders, not his flyballs, but sometimes it takes a hitter time to bring the various facets of his skill set together. Perhaps 2013 is the year that he gives owners homers, triples, doubles and a high batting average all at the same time.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves (Roto: Rd. 7, H2H: Rd. 7)

Freeman has already established himself as a 20-homer threat, and he's still just 23, so a jump to the 25-to-30 homer bracket wouldn't be shocking. More important, though, he should vastly improve on last season's .259 batting average. Though Freeman is no speedster, he can top last year's .215 average on grounders, plus he has put the vision problems that put a damper on his 2012 season behind him.

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros (Roto: Rd. 6, H2H: Rd. 10)

Clearly, Altuve isn't going to come near the .389 batting average he achieved during his 2011 minor league season, but his contact skills and ability to square up the ball support the notion that last year's .290 average was legitimate. He just didn't make good on the potential for 10-to-15 home runs. Altuve's power tailed off in the second half as he launched fewer flyballs, and he seemed to have lost some mojo after missing a week in late June due to a hamstring injury. Maybe the timing was coincidental, but the bigger point is that Altuve was making strides as a power hitter in the first half, and he could build on that this season.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (Roto: Rd. 15, H2H: Rd. 14)

After a lackluster rookie season, Moustakas flashed some power last year, but his overall production was still lacking. He hit just .242 and failed to score or drive in as many as 75 runs. An astronomical 16 percent popup rate hurt Moustakas' value, but unfortunately, that was also a weakness of his in the minor leagues, if not quite to the same extent. However, he was able to hit for average in the minors because he made contact more frequently. Moustakas may never be a .300 hitter, but he should reach or exceed the .263 average he posted as a rookie while continuing to build his power-hitting résumé.

Everth Cabrera, SS, Padres (Roto: Rd. 19, H2H: N/A)

Low strikeout rates have enabled Cabrera to hit .333 and .297 in his last two minor league seasons, yet in spending parts of the last four years with the Padres, he has compiled a measly .240 batting average. He has struggled to make contact in the majors, especially when hitting as a righty. According to a report from MLB.com, Cabrera has been working on his right-handed swing this offseason, and he has actually experienced success against lefties as a major leaguer, back in his 2009 rookie season. With more contact and more hits, Cabrera would not only raise his average but also give himself a chance to steal 50-plus bases. The biggest risk for Cabrera right now is his reported link to the defunct South Florida PED clinic, Biogenesis of America. However, owners can get Cabrera late enough in drafts to minimize the risk involved should he receive a suspension.

Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals (Roto: Rd. 16, H2H: Rd. 23)

Even more so than Cabrera, Cain has the upside of a .300 hitter, and one with power and speed to boot. Even with last season shaved down to just 61 games due to groin and hamstring injuries, Cain showed off some of his power and speed potential by clubbing seven home runs and stealing 10 bases. Cain's .266 batting average was a disappointment, though, and like Cabrera and Moustakas, he has shown that he is capable of making contact at a much higher rate. While his .327 BABIP was better than the major league norm, there is room for improvement there as well, as he compiled much higher rates at several of his minor league stops.

Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies (Roto: Rd. 25, H2H: Rd. 24)

It's easy to overlook Brown. The Phillies have continually passed him over when assembling their starting outfield, and in each of the last two seasons, he has validated their decision by putting up mediocre stats in the majors and Triple-A. It's hard to defend his performance, given his escalating ground ball rates and vanishing power, but at least he has maintained decent contact rates, and last season he managed a .286 batting average at Lehigh Valley, even though he was dealing with a variety of ailments, including injuries to both of his knees. The power he showed three seasons ago could reemerge, and the rest of his skill set appears to be largely intact. The Phillies did give Brown an extended look late last season, and he looks to get regular playing time in 2013.

Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 8)

Morrow appeared to be on his way to a breakout season in 2012, as he compiled a 2.90 ERA through his first 12 starts. He sustained an oblique injury in his 13th start and it kept him out for the next two-and-a-half months. Morrow did fare well upon his late-August return, and his final stat line featured a 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and improved walk and ground ball rates. The only thing missing was his typical double-digit K/9 rate, but after subtracting out his first four starts, Morrow posted a closer-to-typical 8/8 K/9. Morrow has never had a season where he put it all together -- a high innings count, good control and an impressive strikeout rate -- but just maybe 2013 could be that year. If so, he could be a top 20 starting pitcher.

Matt Moore, SP, Rays (Roto: Rd. 9, H2H: Rd. 8)

After an up-and-down rookie season, one might think Moore would profile as a sleeper, but he is being drafted within the first 10 rounds of typical mixed leagues. Apparently, owners see Moore's potential to be a top 30 starting pitcher as soon as this season even though he fell far short of that a year ago. Particularly in the first half, walks and home runs kept Moore from excelling, but from his fourth start on, he averaged more than a strikeout per inning. Moore has shown in the past that control doesn't have to be an issue, and his flyball tendencies weren't especially strong in the minors. He improved enough to post a 3.01 ERA in the second half, and Moore could progress even further this year.

Alex Cobb, SP, Rays (Roto: Rd. 20, H2H: Rd. 16)

Cobb isn't as heavily pursued as Moore, but like his highly-touted teammate, he started to live up to his prospect status late last season. The key for Cobb is pinpoint control, and according to BaseballReference.com, he threw only 62 percent of his pitches for strikes through the first 10 starts of 2012. In his subsequent 13 starts, though, he increased that rate to 67 percent, and he was rewarded with a 3.32 ERA over that stretch. Cobb doesn't allow many homers, and his minor league numbers hint at the potential for higher swinging strike and strikeout rates. If everything comes together for Cobb, he should be far better than the late-round option his average draft position makes him out to be.

Addison Reed, RP, White Sox (Roto: Rd. 15, H2H: Rd. 19)

As a rookie, Reed didn't quite match the ample strikeout rates from his two seasons in the minors, but there was nothing all that wrong with his 8.8 K/9 rate last year. What got Reed into trouble was a 24 percent line drive rate, and that likely contributed to unfavorable BABIP (.331) and strand (67 percent) rates. All three of those metrics are often subject to random fluctuation, and all three could easily move in the right direction this season. Add in the potential for improved strikeout and walk rates, and owners could have a top closer on their hands.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Report: Rockies evaluating players from three teams
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:47 pm ET) While it seems unlikely the Rockies will trade shortstop Troy Tulowitzki by Thursday's non-waiver deadline, MLB.com reports the team spent much of Monday evaluating major-league players and prospects from the Mets' organization. New York has been a team linked to Tulowitzki rumors in the last week.

MLB.com also reports the Rockies spent time evaluating players within the Cardinals and Angels organizations. They are considered two teams with money and major-league-ready players that would intrigue the Rockies' front office, if they were to inquire about a trade.


Report: 5-6 teams showing interest in LaTroy Hawkins
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:40 pm ET) After reporting Monday the Pirates were showing interest in Rockies closer LaTroy Hawkins, MLB.com reported Tuesday that sources acknowledged 5-6 teams are interested in trading for the 41-year-old reliever.

However, there are two issues complicating a trade for Hawkins. The Rockies are interested in keeping the veteran around because he's been a positive influence on the team's younger players. Also, the Rockies haven't been floored by a deal for a player that is under team control next season.


Mark Teixeira anticipates starting Tuesday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:34 pm ET) After delivering a pinch-hit single Monday at Texas, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira (lat) said he expects to return to the starting lineup Tuesday. He last made a start July 20.

"Absolutely," he said of returning to the lineup Tuesday, per The Journal News. "… Very anxious (to play). It’s been a week. You never want to miss a week. I’m looking forward to (Tuesday)."

Teixeira was encouraged by his at-bat in Monday's 4-2 loss.

"I took one swing and it felt good," he said. "Very reassuring. I wasn’t expecting anything negative, but at the same time you want to get out there and get it done."


John Lackey could be on trading block
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12:01 pm ET) Red Sox veteran right-hander John Lackey could be dealt at the deadline despite his status as one of their few reliable starters, WEEI.com is reporting. Lackey is also under team control through next season, which makes trade rumors that much more surprising.

Lackey has received attention from contenders due to his steady and solid contributions over the last two years. He has won two of his last three starts, giving up just five runs in 19 innings during that stretch, to raise his record to 11-7 and lower his ERA to 3.60. He is on pace to throw 210 innings this season, his highest total since joining the Red Sox in 2010.


'The Thing' could push Pedro Alvarez to the bench
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:46 am ET) "The Thing" has a hold on Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez - and it could cost him his starting job.

"The Thing" in baseball parlance is an inexplicable inability to throw accurately to the point it becomes a mental block. Alvarez has 23 errors this season, more than any player in any position in the major leagues, and 21 have come on throws. He has hidden when the media has come around to ask him about it, according to the Beaver County Times.

Alvarez has apparently allowed the problem to affect his hitting. He has not had a multi-hit game since July 10 and has just five hits in his last 25 at-bats. He has not scored or driven in a run in the last six games as his stat line has been weakened to .238/.326/.407. Despite cutting down a bit on his strikeouts this season, his production has suffered, though he has still managed 15 home runs and 47 RBI.


Erick Aybar nothing but a singles hitter in July
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:29 am ET) An inability to hit anything but singles has limited the production of Angels second baseman Erick Aybar recently.

Aybar has hit safely in 17 of his last 21 games, but 19 of his 22 hits during that stretch have been singles. He has no triples or home runs in that period. He has just five runs scored and six RBI since July 6. Aybar owns a decent .281/.317/.403 stat line on the season. His slugging percentage has fallen 30 points in July, but he has been productive overall in 2014 with 50 runs scored and 51 RBI.


Kurt Suzuki backed by teammates
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:07 am ET) Twins surprisingly productive catcher Kurt Suzuki has received interest from several teams in need of players at that position, but closer Glen Perkins is hoping he stays put and is offered a contract extension.

"That would be ideal," he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "I think everyone else would agree. Not even just pitchers. He's fit in the clubhouse great, too, with everybody."

General manager Terry Ryan expressed satisfaction with Suzuki despite admitting he rates poorly in regard to pitch-framing.

Toronto, San Francisco and Baltimore are believed to be most interested. All three had scouts at Twins games over the weekend.


Jordy Mercer emerging as option to bat second vs. LHPs
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:06 am ET) Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer was slotted second in the batting order Monday against the Giants for the third time this season and second time in three games.

Mercer has become an option to hit second when a left-handed starter is on the hill, as was the case Monday with Giants hurler Madison Bumgarner.

"I think he gives us, against left-handed pitching, probably the best dynamic in that spot right now," manager Clint Hurdle said, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "From last season into this season, he’s been one of our better hitters against left-handed pitching. He’s a guy we’ve used to play some small ball with, a guy who’s shown an ability to barrel the ball. He’s leading the team in RBIs against left-handed pitching in probably less at-bats than the other guys had."

Mercer is batting .319 with a .351 on-base percentage, .458 slugging percentage and .809 OPS in 40 games against lefties this season.


'Still a good chance' Joaquin Benoit gets dealt
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:00 am ET) A major-league source told MLBDailyDish.com that there is "still a good chance" the Padres trade reliever Joaquin Benoit, who has taken over the closer's role since San Diego traded Huston Street to the Angels. The Pirates and Indians could be two teams still interested in acquiring the veteran reliever.

Adam Eaton on a roll for White Sox
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:50 am ET) White Sox leadoff hitter Adam Eaton has remained steady and productive since a mini-slump in late June and early July.

Eaton has hit safely in 13 of his last 14 games with 22 hits in 58 at-bats during that stretch. He has scored six runs in the last eight games and has sweetened his stat line to .285/.355/.383. The lone mild disappointment has been his 10 stolen bases in 16 attempts.


 
 
 
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