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2013 Draft Prep: Al Melchior's Sleepers

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It's not Draft Day if you haven't prepared a list of sleepers, and in case you're not sure whom to put on yours, I've got a few candidates to consider.

Before getting into the nitty-gritty of building a list, there's the issue of putting our fingers on exactly what constitutes a sleeper. Owners may disagree on what qualifies a player to be one, though the basic idea is to find players whom you think other owners are likely to undervalue. Perceptions of value vary from league to league, but to get a general idea of how a player is perceived, you can see where they rank in terms of average draft position (ADP) among owners in CBSSports.com leagues.

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Based on those ADPs, I have identified 12 players who are getting shortchanged in a wide swath of leagues. Each of these players should deliver more value than their draft positions would indicate, so if I'm waiting to take a player at a particular position, I'll target one from this list after I have filled other, more pressing needs.

Some of my sleepers are coming off disappointing seasons, while others have recently dealt with health issues and others still have skill sets that are underappreciated. Regardless of the reason behind their relative lack of popularity, each of these players provides the potential for a healthy return on the value of the draft pick or auction bid you would need to acquire them.

John Jaso, C, Athletics (Roto: Rd. 25, H2H: N/A)

You knew that Jaso could draw a walk, but that alone doesn't make him a viable pick in a two-catcher league, especially since those tend to be Rotisserie formats where the free pass doesn't count for much. However, Jaso is not exactly a one-trick pony, as he produced 10 home runs in just 294 at-bats last season. Jaso should get even more playing time this year as the A's No. 1 catcher, and he could easily exceed his homer total from last year. He hit for moderate power in his minor league career; last season just happened to be the first time we saw it from him as a major leaguer. Instead of a deep-league afterthought, Jaso is a legitimate second catcher in standard mixed Rotisserie leagues.

Corey Hart, 1B/OF, Brewers (Roto: Rd. 18, H2H: Rd. 21)

It's true that Hart is expected to miss at least the first month-and-a-half of the season due to his recovery from knee surgery, but that doesn't mean he should drop off your radar on Draft Day. He has become a late-round option, but bear in mind that you don't lose all of his value while he's on the shelf -- only the portion that a replacement-level player can't provide. The combination of Hart plus, say, a replacement like Jason Kubel, would give you an outfielder with value similar to that of Carlos Beltran, making Hart a legitimate mid-round option.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, Rays (Roto: Rd. 27, H2H: N/A)

I'm not suggesting that Johnson should be anywhere near the top or middle of your second base rankings, but he's a better late-round option than he's getting credit for. Slated to split time between second base and outfield, Johnson should see close-to-regular playing time, and he still possesses a nice combination of home run power and speed. Don't count on Johnson to provide a decent batting average, but he will provide enough otherwise to be worth a late-round selection.

Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, Giants (Roto: Rd. 16, H2H: Rd. 14)

With double-digit homer totals likely out of reach and a history of nondescript RBI and stolen base lines, Scutaro is not an exciting player to pursue. Still, he has quietly become a better hitter for average over the last four years and has scored 87 or more runs three times over that span. Even with the lack of flashy stats, that's enough to make him a top 12 second baseman or shortstop in Rotisserie or Head-to-Head. While he has been getting his due in Head-to-Head drafts, Scutaro remains highly underrated in Rotisserie and is worth taking over the more popular types like Danny Espinosa, Erick Aybar or Derek Jeter.

Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 17, H2H: Rd. 17)

Seager's 20-homer explosion last season came as a surprise, given that he was much more of a doubles hitter in the minors. The fact remains, though, that he didn't jack up his flyball rate to achieve the feat and didn't hit many cheapies just over the outfield wall. While Seager could maintain his power gains, he seems poised for batting average improvement, since he was a better contact hitter and a better hitter on balls in play in the minors than he has been so far with the Mariners. With just a slight increase in batting average, Seager should be the equal of David Freese in points leagues, yet he is typically going a couple of rounds later, and to a lesser degree, he is undervalued in Rotisserie drafts.

Ben Revere, OF, Phillies (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 18)

As a stolen base specialist, Revere's value clearly lies in Rotisserie, and in those formats, he is coming at a discount. Because of his utter lack of power, it's easy to dismiss Revere, but as a superb contact hitter, he doesn't need an outrageous BABIP to hit .300, and he has a strong chance of exceeding last season's 40 steals. That's enough to give him better Rotisserie value than either Mark Trumbo or Austin Jackson, yet Revere is being drafted well after them. You can probably wait until after the first 10 rounds to take Revere, and if do, you are nearly assured of getting a huge bargain.

Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 25)

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Saunders was a home run shy of a 20/20 season last year, yet he is being ignored in many standard mixed league drafts. He doesn't need to improve to be viable as a No. 4 outfielder in a 12-team mixed league, but even if his rate stats don't budge, he should be more productive than last year by virtue of more at-bats and a better lineup surrounding him. Saunders can probably be had in the final round or reserve draft, but he should deliver more value than most of the players going in those rounds.

Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 21, H2H: Rd. 25)

Martin didn't do much in his brief time in Texas last season, so perhaps that's why owners in CBSSports.com leagues are not drafting him among the top 60 outfielders. That's particularly surprising in Rotisserie leagues, where his 20/20 potential could really be of use. Even if Martin is just a 15/15 player, he could hit for a high enough average to offer more than late-round value, at least for Roto owners.

Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 17)

Mediocre ERAs and WHIPs from the last two seasons have caused Fantasy owners to doubt Garcia's value for standard mixed leagues, but his peripheral stats tell a different story. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates are similar to those of Hiroki Kuroda, who is a bona fide top 40 starter. Better yet, Garcia has been much more proficient at keeping the ball in the park, which is not unexpected, given the home parks in which each pitcher plays. The difference, Fantasy-wise, between the two hurlers is their respective strand rates. Garcia's 71 percent rate from last season is a bit on the low side, but in 2010 and 2011, he registered better-than-average rates. He's also allowed batters to hit over .250 on grounders in each of the last two seasons, and neither that nor his subpar 2012 strand rate may be his fault. If that's the case, Garcia could join Kuroda as a solid mid-tier starting pitcher.

Jason Hammel, SP, Orioles (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 19)

Maybe owners are scared off from Hammel because of last season's knee surgery, or maybe it's skepticism over the breakout-level numbers he put up when he was healthy. However, Hammel's success was backed up by increases in fastball velocity, swinging strike rate on fastballs and ground ball rate. Hammel revamped his pitch selection, as he relied more on his sinker and slider, and both pitches were more effective than they had been during prior seasons. While there is always a risk of regression, there are enough signs of real skill improvement that Hammel looks like an absolute steal in the late rounds.

Sergio Romo, RP, Giants (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 13)

Despite an upper 80s fastball, Romo is a proven producer of strikeouts and he rarely walks anyone, so why is he ranked outside the top 10 relievers in average draft position? Maybe some are concerned about his job security, given the presence of Santiago Casilla, or maybe some have taken note that we have him projected for just 56 innings. That is based on the way that Giants manager Bruce Bochy has historically used Romo, even after he became the team's closer late last season. Romo's full-inning appearances were mixed in with several one-out and two-out stints. However, that may not be the way that Bochy uses him this season, now that he is established as the closer. After all, Brian Wilson typically pitched a full inning when Bochy entrusted him with saves. With 65-plus innings, Romo is clearly a top 10 closer and possibly an elite.

Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: N/A)

Fujikawa was a strikeout machine in Japan's Central League, but will that carry over to his work in the majors? That's a hard thing to predict, but even if Fujikawa isn't as dominant with the Cubs, he has some sleeper appeal because of the likelihood of saves. The North Siders are clearly disenchanted with incumbent closer Carlos Marmol, so whether it's by trade or a demotion to a setup role, it seems like only a matter of time before Marmol cedes his save opportunities to Fujikawa. Especially in Rotisserie leagues, where some late-round relievers never get a taste of the ninth inning, Fujikawa's odds of contributing are better than those of the other options available at that point in the draft.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Three teams showing interest in Norichika Aoki
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Orioles, Reds and Mariners are among the teams looking at outfielder Norichika Aoki, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

The 32-year-old Aoki hit .285/.349/.360 over 491 at-bats last year. With the Royals signing Alex Rios earlier in the week, Aoki will likely have to move on with a different club. 


Report: Athletics release Jorge De Leon
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Athletics have released pitcher Jorge De Leon, according to SB Nation.

De Leon was designated for assignment by the club last week, and the team couldn't find a way to deal him. De Leon appeared in eight games last season, posting a 4.91 ERA over 7 1/3 innings. 


Report: Padres' Seth Smith popping up in trade talks
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Padres outfielder Seth Smith has come up in trade talks recently, according to ESPN.

If the Matt Kemp and Wil Myers trades go through, the team would have a surplus in the outfield. On top of those two players, San Diego would also have Carlos Quentin, Will Venable, Cameron Maybin and Smith. The 32-year-old Smith hit .266/.367/.440 over 443 at-bats last year. 


D-Backs, David Hernandez avoid arbitration
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Diamondbacks have reached an agreement with David Hernandez on a contract, according to the azcentral.com.

Hernandez was eligible for arbitration, but settled on a $2 million salary figure for next season. The 29-year-old posted a missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.


Report: Three teams showing interest in Jake Peavy
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Marlins, Braves and Giants are showing interest in pitcher Jake Peavy, according to FoxSports.com.

The 33-year-old Peavy is coming off a season in which he posted a 3.73 ERA over 202 2/3 innings. Peavy had some issues in Boston, posting a 4.72 ERA to start the season, but settled in once he joined the Giants. With San Francisco, Peavy had a 2.17 ERA over 78 2/3 innings. The Marlins interest in Peavy is dependent on whether Dan Haren decides to pitch. If Haren comes back, the team would not have interest in Peavy.


Padres, Rays and Nationals on the verge of three team deal
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Nationals, Padres and Rays are on the verge of a three-team deal which would send outfielder Wil Myers to San Diego, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. 

The deal would also send outfielder Steven Souza back to Tampa Bay and prospect Trea Turner to Washington. 

The deal is yet to be finalized, with a few key pieces to also be involved in the deal. 


Royals, Edinson Volquez agree to two year contract
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Royals and free agent pitcher Edinson Volquez have an agreement on a two-year deal, worth $20 million in the first two years, pending a physical, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. 

Volquez, who pitched for the Pirates in 2014, went 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 140 strikeouts. 


Blue Jays sign outfielder Ryan Kalish to minor-league contract
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Blue Jays announced Wednesday the signning of outfielder Ryan Kalish to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training. 

Kalish appeared in 57 games in 2014 for the Cubs, hitting .248 with four triples and five RBI.


Giants, Sergio Romo agree to two-year, $15 million deal
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) The Giants have resigned closer Sergio Romo to a two-year, $15 million deal, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

FOXSports.com Baseball Writer Ken Rosenthal was the first to report the signing. 

Romo recorded 23 saves in 2014 for San Francisco, posting a 3.72 ERA in 58 innings of work. Romo was also reportedly being pursued by the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox this offseason. 


Marlins' Derek Dietrich to miss rest of winter ball with ankle injury
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12/17/2014) Marlins infielder Derek Dietrich is going to miss the rest of the winter ball season after suffering an ankle injury that required him to be carried off the field Tuesday, according to the Sun Sentinel.

Dietrich was hurt while playing in the Dominican league when covering second base and a runner collided with him trying to grab the ball. 

Dietrich played in 20 games for Miami in 2014, hitting .290 with two triples and 11 RBI. It is unknown if this injury will keep Dietrich out into spring training and the beginning of the regular season. 


 
 
 
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