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2013 Draft Prep: Al Melchior's Sleepers

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It's not Draft Day if you haven't prepared a list of sleepers, and in case you're not sure whom to put on yours, I've got a few candidates to consider.

Before getting into the nitty-gritty of building a list, there's the issue of putting our fingers on exactly what constitutes a sleeper. Owners may disagree on what qualifies a player to be one, though the basic idea is to find players whom you think other owners are likely to undervalue. Perceptions of value vary from league to league, but to get a general idea of how a player is perceived, you can see where they rank in terms of average draft position (ADP) among owners in CBSSports.com leagues.

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Based on those ADPs, I have identified 12 players who are getting shortchanged in a wide swath of leagues. Each of these players should deliver more value than their draft positions would indicate, so if I'm waiting to take a player at a particular position, I'll target one from this list after I have filled other, more pressing needs.

Some of my sleepers are coming off disappointing seasons, while others have recently dealt with health issues and others still have skill sets that are underappreciated. Regardless of the reason behind their relative lack of popularity, each of these players provides the potential for a healthy return on the value of the draft pick or auction bid you would need to acquire them.

John Jaso, C, Athletics (Roto: Rd. 25, H2H: N/A)

You knew that Jaso could draw a walk, but that alone doesn't make him a viable pick in a two-catcher league, especially since those tend to be Rotisserie formats where the free pass doesn't count for much. However, Jaso is not exactly a one-trick pony, as he produced 10 home runs in just 294 at-bats last season. Jaso should get even more playing time this year as the A's No. 1 catcher, and he could easily exceed his homer total from last year. He hit for moderate power in his minor league career; last season just happened to be the first time we saw it from him as a major leaguer. Instead of a deep-league afterthought, Jaso is a legitimate second catcher in standard mixed Rotisserie leagues.

Corey Hart, 1B/OF, Brewers (Roto: Rd. 18, H2H: Rd. 21)

It's true that Hart is expected to miss at least the first month-and-a-half of the season due to his recovery from knee surgery, but that doesn't mean he should drop off your radar on Draft Day. He has become a late-round option, but bear in mind that you don't lose all of his value while he's on the shelf -- only the portion that a replacement-level player can't provide. The combination of Hart plus, say, a replacement like Jason Kubel, would give you an outfielder with value similar to that of Carlos Beltran, making Hart a legitimate mid-round option.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, Rays (Roto: Rd. 27, H2H: N/A)

I'm not suggesting that Johnson should be anywhere near the top or middle of your second base rankings, but he's a better late-round option than he's getting credit for. Slated to split time between second base and outfield, Johnson should see close-to-regular playing time, and he still possesses a nice combination of home run power and speed. Don't count on Johnson to provide a decent batting average, but he will provide enough otherwise to be worth a late-round selection.

Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, Giants (Roto: Rd. 16, H2H: Rd. 14)

With double-digit homer totals likely out of reach and a history of nondescript RBI and stolen base lines, Scutaro is not an exciting player to pursue. Still, he has quietly become a better hitter for average over the last four years and has scored 87 or more runs three times over that span. Even with the lack of flashy stats, that's enough to make him a top 12 second baseman or shortstop in Rotisserie or Head-to-Head. While he has been getting his due in Head-to-Head drafts, Scutaro remains highly underrated in Rotisserie and is worth taking over the more popular types like Danny Espinosa, Erick Aybar or Derek Jeter.

Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 17, H2H: Rd. 17)

Seager's 20-homer explosion last season came as a surprise, given that he was much more of a doubles hitter in the minors. The fact remains, though, that he didn't jack up his flyball rate to achieve the feat and didn't hit many cheapies just over the outfield wall. While Seager could maintain his power gains, he seems poised for batting average improvement, since he was a better contact hitter and a better hitter on balls in play in the minors than he has been so far with the Mariners. With just a slight increase in batting average, Seager should be the equal of David Freese in points leagues, yet he is typically going a couple of rounds later, and to a lesser degree, he is undervalued in Rotisserie drafts.

Ben Revere, OF, Phillies (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 18)

As a stolen base specialist, Revere's value clearly lies in Rotisserie, and in those formats, he is coming at a discount. Because of his utter lack of power, it's easy to dismiss Revere, but as a superb contact hitter, he doesn't need an outrageous BABIP to hit .300, and he has a strong chance of exceeding last season's 40 steals. That's enough to give him better Rotisserie value than either Mark Trumbo or Austin Jackson, yet Revere is being drafted well after them. You can probably wait until after the first 10 rounds to take Revere, and if do, you are nearly assured of getting a huge bargain.

Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 25)

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Saunders was a home run shy of a 20/20 season last year, yet he is being ignored in many standard mixed league drafts. He doesn't need to improve to be viable as a No. 4 outfielder in a 12-team mixed league, but even if his rate stats don't budge, he should be more productive than last year by virtue of more at-bats and a better lineup surrounding him. Saunders can probably be had in the final round or reserve draft, but he should deliver more value than most of the players going in those rounds.

Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 21, H2H: Rd. 25)

Martin didn't do much in his brief time in Texas last season, so perhaps that's why owners in CBSSports.com leagues are not drafting him among the top 60 outfielders. That's particularly surprising in Rotisserie leagues, where his 20/20 potential could really be of use. Even if Martin is just a 15/15 player, he could hit for a high enough average to offer more than late-round value, at least for Roto owners.

Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 17)

Mediocre ERAs and WHIPs from the last two seasons have caused Fantasy owners to doubt Garcia's value for standard mixed leagues, but his peripheral stats tell a different story. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates are similar to those of Hiroki Kuroda, who is a bona fide top 40 starter. Better yet, Garcia has been much more proficient at keeping the ball in the park, which is not unexpected, given the home parks in which each pitcher plays. The difference, Fantasy-wise, between the two hurlers is their respective strand rates. Garcia's 71 percent rate from last season is a bit on the low side, but in 2010 and 2011, he registered better-than-average rates. He's also allowed batters to hit over .250 on grounders in each of the last two seasons, and neither that nor his subpar 2012 strand rate may be his fault. If that's the case, Garcia could join Kuroda as a solid mid-tier starting pitcher.

Jason Hammel, SP, Orioles (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: Rd. 19)

Maybe owners are scared off from Hammel because of last season's knee surgery, or maybe it's skepticism over the breakout-level numbers he put up when he was healthy. However, Hammel's success was backed up by increases in fastball velocity, swinging strike rate on fastballs and ground ball rate. Hammel revamped his pitch selection, as he relied more on his sinker and slider, and both pitches were more effective than they had been during prior seasons. While there is always a risk of regression, there are enough signs of real skill improvement that Hammel looks like an absolute steal in the late rounds.

Sergio Romo, RP, Giants (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 13)

Despite an upper 80s fastball, Romo is a proven producer of strikeouts and he rarely walks anyone, so why is he ranked outside the top 10 relievers in average draft position? Maybe some are concerned about his job security, given the presence of Santiago Casilla, or maybe some have taken note that we have him projected for just 56 innings. That is based on the way that Giants manager Bruce Bochy has historically used Romo, even after he became the team's closer late last season. Romo's full-inning appearances were mixed in with several one-out and two-out stints. However, that may not be the way that Bochy uses him this season, now that he is established as the closer. After all, Brian Wilson typically pitched a full inning when Bochy entrusted him with saves. With 65-plus innings, Romo is clearly a top 10 closer and possibly an elite.

Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs (Roto: Rd. 23, H2H: N/A)

Fujikawa was a strikeout machine in Japan's Central League, but will that carry over to his work in the majors? That's a hard thing to predict, but even if Fujikawa isn't as dominant with the Cubs, he has some sleeper appeal because of the likelihood of saves. The North Siders are clearly disenchanted with incumbent closer Carlos Marmol, so whether it's by trade or a demotion to a setup role, it seems like only a matter of time before Marmol cedes his save opportunities to Fujikawa. Especially in Rotisserie leagues, where some late-round relievers never get a taste of the ninth inning, Fujikawa's odds of contributing are better than those of the other options available at that point in the draft.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Athletics' Jesse Chavez happy with spring showing
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:55 am ET) Athletics pitcher Jesse Chavez allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits and two walks in 3 2/3 innings while striking out one in Thursday's 6-4 win over the Giants.

Chavez, who was on the mound just two days after the birth of his daughter, is happy with his performance this spring, the Bay Area News Group reports.

"I feel good," Chavez said. "I’ve put some men on, but I’ve pitched out of some jams. I’ve showed them I won’t let it snowball."

Chavez believes he needs to improve at changing the eye level of batters.

"I’ve got to get them to change eye levels better," Chavez said. "The last two or three starts, I haven’t been able to do that. The pitches that I’m trying to elevate they’re fouling off (instead of swinging and missing) and that runs up my pitch count."

Chavez has posted a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings as he competes for a spot in the rotation.


Giants' Bochy: Joe Panik pressing, remains starter at second base
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:09 am ET) Giants manager Bruce Bochy said Thursday that while infielder Joe Panik might be pressing, he remains the team's starter at second base without reservations, the San Jose Mercury News reports.

Panik is just 8 for 50 this spring after going hitless in four at-bats Thursday, though he has delivered three doubles and two home runs. He's looking for a strong follow-up to an impressive rookie season in which he hit .305/.343/.368 in 269 at-bats.


Pirates P A.J. Burnett changes tune about shifting
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(12:38 am ET) Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett has not had the highest of opinions when it comes to infield-shifting in the past. In 2013, he let some reporters know what he thought about shifting at the time.

When asked about a shift of shortstop Clint Barmes that year, Burnett stated, “I do not have a problem with (Barmes), I had a problem with the (expletive) shift. We play people in the wrong spot.”

But Burnett seemed to change his tune when reflecting upon the subject.

“As much as I complained about the shifts, they helped,” Burnett said. “They really did. It's that one a game, you've got a no-hitter for four or five innings and one gets through, and where you're like … ‘(expletive) shift.'

“But (shifts) saves you more than anything, and that's the truth.”

The 38-year-old has lost some steam on his fastball at this point in his career and he knows that.

“It took me getting a little older to realize that I'm not able to blow it by guys anymore and ground balls are just as good,” he said.

Burnett has posted a 6.39 ERA with nine earned runs, eight walks and 12 strikeouts in four starts this spring.


Time running out for Matt Lindstrom to win spot with Angels
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:35 am ET) Angels pticher Matt Lindstrom can opt out of his contract if he's not placed on the active roster five days before the regular-season opener, and he believes he may not have an opening to fill in the bullpen, MLB.com reports.

"There's a ton of guys in here that have shown they can compete at this level," Lindstrom said. "I just hope I can be one of those guys that breaks camp with the team. It'd be fun to be on a team like this, that has so much potential, especially with how many games they won last year. The pitching staff's going to be solid no matter which way they go, but I'm hoping to be a part of that."

Lindstrom has given up seven runs in 4 2/3 spring innings but is excited about how his arm feels this spring.

"I can just tell the ball's coming out better," Lindstrom said. "Hopefully, that can just translate to outs."


Giants' Tim Lincecum strikes out seven Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:22 am ET) Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum allowed four runs (three earned) on four hits and two walks in five innings while racking up seven strikeouts in Thursday's spring start against the A's.

"It comes down to one or two pitches per inning," Lincecum said on alternating good and bad innings, per MLB.com. "I just have to keep my pitches down. The ones that they're hitting are the ones that are up. Leadoff batters are locking in to some of the first pitches."

Lincecum has dealt with neck issues and mediocre performances but has looked much better over the last week, following a one-run outing Saturday by matching his seven strikeouts in his previous four outings. He appears on track to open the season as the team's No. 5 starter.


Rockies' Brandon Barnes displays new swing this spring
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:16 am ET) Rockies outfielder Brandon Barnes brought a brand-new swing to spring training that features a high leg kick as he looks to cut down the strikeouts and "be the best version of me," the Denver Post reports.

"I tried to refine who I am and what type of player I am in the box," Barnes said Thursday. "I'm not a guy who's going to hit 30 home runs. I know that. I'm the big guy who needs to be a pest, drive the ball into gaps, hit doubles, use my speed to my advantage, bunt, all those things."

Barnes lost 10 pounds this offseason as he looked to come to camp more athletic and less stiff in the batter's box.

"We have this tremendous athlete, and you see him in the outfield and it shows up daily," manager Walt Weiss said. "But you saw him in the box last season, and there was some stiffness to his approach. And I'm saying, 'Be that guy in the box.' It made sense to him."

Barnes indicated that he's committed to the new approach that pulls the focus away from home runs.

"I had to go back and do some soul-searching to figure out who I was," Barnes said. "I'm the guy who goes out and plays really hard."


Rangers' Shin-Soo Choo goes hitless in return Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(3/26/2015) Rangers outfielder Shin-Soo Choo (triceps) returned to the lineup Thursday, going 0 for 4 while serving as the designated hitter in his team's 6-3 win over the Rockies.

Choo had been sidelined since March 15 due to a triceps injury and was reported to be targeting a return Saturday, but he was able to remain in for the entire game Thursday, picking up four at-bats in his role as DH. He's managed just four hits in 22 at-bats this spring.


Rangers' Fujikawa confident in return from Tommy John surgery
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(3/26/2015) Rangers pitcher Kyuji Fujikawa is scheduled to pitch Friday, and the Rangers will be keeping a close eye on the pitcher to determine if he has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery or if he'll need time in the minors to open the season, MLB.com reports.

Fujikawa hasn't allowed a run in four Cactus League outings but has struggled a bit in two camp games. He remains confident his recovery is on track.

"This is still spring training, not the regular season," Fujikawa said. "It's only going to get better. Coming into spring training, the surgery was out of my mind. As a player, I am really confident. I am not sure what my role will be, but I'll be confident whatever the situation is."

Manager Jeff Banister is looking for the pitcher to build off his spring success.

"The guy is coming off Tommy John," Banister said. "There are good days and bad days. He has logged a couple of good ones. Let's see that continue."


Twins Trevor Plouffe wants to cement his place at third
by Dave Peters | CBSSports.com
(3/26/2015) Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe is completely aware of the threat that Miguel Sano brings when it comes to the third base spot. Sano is considered by many to be a can't-miss player. But Plouffe is trying not to let that affect him or his play. 

“You can’t think about anything like that,” Plouffe said. “You can’t worry about what other people are saying about you. I’m more focused on getting this organization out of this rut that we’ve dug ourselves over the last four years.”

After moving around the infield for years, Plouffe seems to have found his place at third. The 28-year-old has a batting average of .245 with 62 home runs, 224 RBI and 398 strikeouts in five seasons.


Rangers' Ross Ohlendorf (groin) leaves Thursday's game
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(3/26/2015) Rangers pitcher Ross Ohlendorf was removed from Thursday's game against the Rockies due to recurring tightness in his right groin, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

Ohlendorf tossed a scoreless inning and struck out two Thursday in his first appearance since March 15 but continued to battle groin issues. He's competing for a spot in the bullpen.


 
 
 
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