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Reality Check: Reacting or overreacting?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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You gave Justin Maxwell a look Monday morning, didn't you? Yeah, he won't be the only waiver fodder to get your attention this week.

Jhoulys Chacin with his strong 6 2/3 innings. Jackie Bradley with his three walks. Yonder Alonso with his home run. Collin Cowgill with his grand slam. They all had memorable Mondays.

And that only covers half a day's worth of action.

So many players, so few roster spots. In mixed leagues, that's the frustrating part about this time of year, and it's so frustrating that some people choose not to bother with the early-season headliners at all.

"A couple games can't replace months of research and evaluation," they say.

And it's true. They can't.

But what that line of thinking fails to account for is perception. Most longtime Fantasy owners think they have a good grasp of each player's potential. They think it's why they constructed their rosters the way they did.

But it's not. You know it's not. You may not have thought it through all the way, but you know perception drives the entire drafting process.

Let's say you really like Domonic Brown this year, as I do. Let's say you think he's going to outperform Jay Bruce this year. It's not the craziest prediction. If Brown meets the full extent of his potential, it's perfectly feasible, even. But you knew better than to draft him ahead of Bruce. Even knowing how you feel about Brown, you either opted to draft Bruce in the fourth or fifth round, like everybody else, or passed on him completely, hoping to get Brown 10 rounds later. In both scenarios, you drafted according to perceived value rather than potential value.

Most Viewed Players (as of 4/2)
Player Name Own %
1. Jose Fernandez, SP, Marlins 51
2. Collin Cowgill, OF, Mets 17
3. Brandon Maurer, SP, Mariners 35
4. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox 58
5. Phil Coke, RP, Tigers 22
6. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs 42
7. Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies 18
8. Gerardo Parra, OF, D-Backs 11
9. Ryan Ludwick, OF, Reds 50
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers 82

Maybe you don't like Brown this year. Maybe Anthony Rizzo is your guy. The illustration still works. Even believing Rizzo is going to hit .290 with 35 homers, you didn't take him over Billy Butler.

You know what kept you from doing that? Perception. At those critical moments in the draft, you ignored your personal assessment of a player for the sake of having it all.

What's more, you probably would have derided anyone who didn't. The practice of drafting according to the majority opinion rather than your own in an effort to maximize the talent on your roster is a strategy that normally goes unspoken because everybody knows to do it.

So why after the draft is there a complete surrender to potential value, ignoring the perceived value that halfway constructed your roster? Based on your own drafting habits, you could argue the latter is at least as important as the former. How you feel about a player matters only as much as how others feel about that player.

And to the nameless, faceless masses, nothing says more about a player than what he just did.

Don't believe me? Well, just look at the "most viewed" list on the CBSSports.com roster trends. The players at the top are the ones who -- like Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- just did something. People are looking at them. They're looking and thinking.

And some of them are striking, whether because they're just the impatient sort or because they already know what I'm about to advise:

Don't be shy on the waiver wire this time of year.

I didn't say go crazy. You don't want to be afraid to make a move, but if you turn over half your roster before we reach the end of the first week, you might as well quit playing now. Most players were drafted where they were for a reason, and you can rest assured I'm sticking with Brown even if he starts 0 for 18.

But if you allow yourself some flexibility with the back of your bench -- those players who nearly went undrafted in your league, who everyone else passed on 20 times over -- what do you stand to lose?

Maybe you really like Lucas Duda or Carlos Quentin, and that's fine. But if they don't deliver right out of the gate, what do you owe them? And what do you suspect others will do with them if you make them available? They already passed on them the first 20 times.

If the purpose of a roster spot is to protect the players you don't want going to someone else, shouldn't you protect the ones attracting the most attention?

Now, I'm not saying every Casey Kotchman or Philip Humber who has a good day deserves a roster spot. Those players have already proven their mediocrity. But among the players with genuine upside, isn't it possible you targeted the wrong ones on Draft Day?

You don't always see it coming, you know. If you did, you would have beaten everyone to R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Edwin Encarnacion and Allen Craig last year, which would have won you your league and given you so much self-assurance that you wouldn't trouble yourself with the inane ramblings of a peasant like me.

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Winning changes a man, man.

If you have the spot to play with, take the chance. It's like getting a lottery ticket with one of the numbers already filled in. Sure, it probably won't do anything for you, but with that little bit of a head start, how can you turn it down?

And here's the glue that holds it all together: It might be your only chance at it. So many other people are watching and thinking that any of those early-season headliners could be just one good at-bat away from going to someone else. And if that player turns out to be the one that rises from obscurity to claim someone else the championship, you'll be upset, to say the least.

So of those players mentioned -- Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- which would I be willing to pick up solely because of that one game? None, probably. I might pick up Alonso, but because I liked him as a sleeper even before that game. I might pick up Bradley, but because I recognize his upside as a top prospect. In other words, one game shouldn't be the reason you pick up a player, but it could be the impetus to do so. When the spotlight is on him, it's now or never.

Now, if Maxwell, Chacin and Cowgill keep it going for a week or two, I'll obviously have to take notice, particularly if Duda and Quentin are off to slow starts, but for now, I'm content letting them go to someone else. I'm just not convinced the upside is there.

Kind of pulled back the reins there, didn't I? Again, the point wasn't to have you rip apart your roster on opening day, but to remind you that tuning out anything and everything going on this week is potentially as destructive. Even if I'm not acting yet, rest assured I'm watching. And I'm thinking. And when that right guy does that one thing that I know the masses won't be able to overlook, I'm pouncing.

Because in one of my leagues last year, I did get Dickey, Sale, Encarnacion and Craig, and safe to say the rest of the league paid the price.

I owe that championship not to brains, mathematical formulas or even my so-called drafting prowess, which stuck me with players like Daniel Hudson and Ricky Romero. No, what won me the league was a willingness to gamble on what no one else would.

Call it luck, if you will, but the only thing more reckless than relying on luck is not giving it a chance. If you knew now how little you know about the season ahead, you wouldn't turn down that lottery ticket so quickly.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
A's deal Josh Donaldson to Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:55 pm ET) The Athletics have dealt third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for third baseman Brett Lawrie and pitcher Kendall Graveman, according to FoxSports.com. CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman has confirmed the deal.

Pitcher Sean Nolin and shortstop Franklin Barreto are also heading to Oakland, according to Yahoo! The 28-year-old Donaldson is entering his first year of arbitration. He's under team control until 2019. Lawrie is also entering his first year of arbitration, but will become a free-agent in 2018. Lawrie is entering his age-25 season. Graveman sky-rocketed through Toronto's farm system last year, jumping multiple levels. The 23-year-old posted a 1.83 ERA in 27 starts over four levels. He made his major-league debut as well, coming out of the bullpen five times at the end of the year. 

The 24-year-old Nolin posted a 3.43 ERA over three levels in the minors last season. He tossed one inning in the majors last season, giving up one run. The 18-year-old Barreto hit .311/.384/.481 over 328 at-bats in Class A ball. 


Athletics' Jeff Samardzija has not been informed of possible trade
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:41 pm ET) Athletics pitcher Jeff Samardzija has not been informed about a possible trade, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

There was an earlier report suggesting Samardzija was involved in a deal, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Samardzija is a high profile player, and likely would have been contacted by the team if a deal was close. Oakland is said to be working on something, but it's unclear which players are involved. 


Update: Athletics 'close' to making a deal
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(8:48 pm ET) Update: The Athletics are close to making a deal, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

Oakland is looking to acquire hitters in a possible deal. The initial rumor had pitcher Jeff Samardzija in a potential deal, but that may not be the case, according to FoxSports.com. First baseman Brandon Moss is also not included in a possible deal, according to MLB.com. The reports seem to indicate the A's are actively pursuing a deal, but the players involved are not known at this time. 


Report: Nationals' Ross Detwiler open to a trade
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(7:14 pm ET) Nationals pitcher Ross Detwiler is open to a trade, according to The Washington Post

The 28-year-old has been a starter most of his career, but was shifted to the bullpen last season. Though he was effective, Detwiler was relagated to being the team's long relief option/mop-up man. Detwiler doesn't have much of a role with the club, and his camp has suggested that the Nats pursue a trade if possible. Detwiler posted a 4.00 ERA over 63 innings. 


Report: Nationals have checked in on Asdrubal Cabrera
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(6:15 pm ET) The Nationals are one of several teams to have checked in on second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera, according to The Washington Post

Cabrera spent the second half of 2014 in Washington, and has expressed a desire to remain with the club. The Nationals are said to be in pursuit of a middle infielder. Shortstop Ian Desmond is in the final year of his contract, and it's unclear if the team wants to go with Danny Espinosa at second. The 29-year-old Cabrera hit .241/.307/.387 over 553 at-bats last year.


Giants pitcher Juan Gutierrez elects free agency
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(5:33 pm ET) Giants pitcher Juan Gutierrez has elected free agency.

Gutierrez was designated for assignment by the club on November 20. The team attempted to send him to the minors, but Gutierrez rejected the assignment, becoming a free-agent. He's now free to sign with any club. Gutierrez posted a 3.96 ERA over 63 2/3 innings last season. 


Marlins will consider using Aaron Crow as a starter
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(5:12 pm ET) The Marlins will consider using newly-acquired pitcher Aaron Crow as a starter, according to the Sun Sentinel.

There's no guarantee Crow will be stretched out during spring training, but President of Baseball Operations Michael hill praised Crow's versatility. "We love the thought he could possibly be a starting option for us, but at a minimum we know he’ll be a valuable bullpen piece," Hill said. Crow started 48 games in the minors before converting to the bullpen. He's been solid with the change, posting a 3.43 ERA over 233 2/3 career innings as a reliever. 


RHP Belisario opts for free agency after assigned by White Sox
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:42 pm ET) Reliever Ronald Belisario has chosen free agency over a minor league assignment from the White Sox.

Belisario struggled in 2014 to the tune of a 5.56 ERA and 78 hits allowed in 66 1/3 innings.


White Sox sign OF Tony Campana
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:35 pm ET) The White Sox have signed speedy veteran outfielder Tony Campana to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

Campana spent brief periods of time with the Diamondbacks and Angels this season and managed just 14 hits in 75 at-bats.


Report: Nats, Doug Fister not making progress in extension talks
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:52 pm ET) The Nationals made pitcher Doug Fister an extension offer in the spring after acquiring him in a trade with the Tigers. Both sides weren't able to agree to terms at the time. According to James Wagner of the Washington Post, both have not made any progress in extension talks "for months"

Fister is entering a contract year after going 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA in 25 starts. He'll make $7.2 million in 2015.


 
 
 
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