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Reality Check: Reacting or overreacting?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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You gave Justin Maxwell a look Monday morning, didn't you? Yeah, he won't be the only waiver fodder to get your attention this week.

Jhoulys Chacin with his strong 6 2/3 innings. Jackie Bradley with his three walks. Yonder Alonso with his home run. Collin Cowgill with his grand slam. They all had memorable Mondays.

And that only covers half a day's worth of action.

So many players, so few roster spots. In mixed leagues, that's the frustrating part about this time of year, and it's so frustrating that some people choose not to bother with the early-season headliners at all.

"A couple games can't replace months of research and evaluation," they say.

And it's true. They can't.

But what that line of thinking fails to account for is perception. Most longtime Fantasy owners think they have a good grasp of each player's potential. They think it's why they constructed their rosters the way they did.

But it's not. You know it's not. You may not have thought it through all the way, but you know perception drives the entire drafting process.

Let's say you really like Domonic Brown this year, as I do. Let's say you think he's going to outperform Jay Bruce this year. It's not the craziest prediction. If Brown meets the full extent of his potential, it's perfectly feasible, even. But you knew better than to draft him ahead of Bruce. Even knowing how you feel about Brown, you either opted to draft Bruce in the fourth or fifth round, like everybody else, or passed on him completely, hoping to get Brown 10 rounds later. In both scenarios, you drafted according to perceived value rather than potential value.

Most Viewed Players (as of 4/2)
Player Name Own %
1. Jose Fernandez, SP, Marlins 51
2. Collin Cowgill, OF, Mets 17
3. Brandon Maurer, SP, Mariners 35
4. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox 58
5. Phil Coke, RP, Tigers 22
6. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs 42
7. Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies 18
8. Gerardo Parra, OF, D-Backs 11
9. Ryan Ludwick, OF, Reds 50
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers 82

Maybe you don't like Brown this year. Maybe Anthony Rizzo is your guy. The illustration still works. Even believing Rizzo is going to hit .290 with 35 homers, you didn't take him over Billy Butler.

You know what kept you from doing that? Perception. At those critical moments in the draft, you ignored your personal assessment of a player for the sake of having it all.

What's more, you probably would have derided anyone who didn't. The practice of drafting according to the majority opinion rather than your own in an effort to maximize the talent on your roster is a strategy that normally goes unspoken because everybody knows to do it.

So why after the draft is there a complete surrender to potential value, ignoring the perceived value that halfway constructed your roster? Based on your own drafting habits, you could argue the latter is at least as important as the former. How you feel about a player matters only as much as how others feel about that player.

And to the nameless, faceless masses, nothing says more about a player than what he just did.

Don't believe me? Well, just look at the "most viewed" list on the CBSSports.com roster trends. The players at the top are the ones who -- like Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- just did something. People are looking at them. They're looking and thinking.

And some of them are striking, whether because they're just the impatient sort or because they already know what I'm about to advise:

Don't be shy on the waiver wire this time of year.

I didn't say go crazy. You don't want to be afraid to make a move, but if you turn over half your roster before we reach the end of the first week, you might as well quit playing now. Most players were drafted where they were for a reason, and you can rest assured I'm sticking with Brown even if he starts 0 for 18.

But if you allow yourself some flexibility with the back of your bench -- those players who nearly went undrafted in your league, who everyone else passed on 20 times over -- what do you stand to lose?

Maybe you really like Lucas Duda or Carlos Quentin, and that's fine. But if they don't deliver right out of the gate, what do you owe them? And what do you suspect others will do with them if you make them available? They already passed on them the first 20 times.

If the purpose of a roster spot is to protect the players you don't want going to someone else, shouldn't you protect the ones attracting the most attention?

Now, I'm not saying every Casey Kotchman or Philip Humber who has a good day deserves a roster spot. Those players have already proven their mediocrity. But among the players with genuine upside, isn't it possible you targeted the wrong ones on Draft Day?

You don't always see it coming, you know. If you did, you would have beaten everyone to R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Edwin Encarnacion and Allen Craig last year, which would have won you your league and given you so much self-assurance that you wouldn't trouble yourself with the inane ramblings of a peasant like me.

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Winning changes a man, man.

If you have the spot to play with, take the chance. It's like getting a lottery ticket with one of the numbers already filled in. Sure, it probably won't do anything for you, but with that little bit of a head start, how can you turn it down?

And here's the glue that holds it all together: It might be your only chance at it. So many other people are watching and thinking that any of those early-season headliners could be just one good at-bat away from going to someone else. And if that player turns out to be the one that rises from obscurity to claim someone else the championship, you'll be upset, to say the least.

So of those players mentioned -- Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- which would I be willing to pick up solely because of that one game? None, probably. I might pick up Alonso, but because I liked him as a sleeper even before that game. I might pick up Bradley, but because I recognize his upside as a top prospect. In other words, one game shouldn't be the reason you pick up a player, but it could be the impetus to do so. When the spotlight is on him, it's now or never.

Now, if Maxwell, Chacin and Cowgill keep it going for a week or two, I'll obviously have to take notice, particularly if Duda and Quentin are off to slow starts, but for now, I'm content letting them go to someone else. I'm just not convinced the upside is there.

Kind of pulled back the reins there, didn't I? Again, the point wasn't to have you rip apart your roster on opening day, but to remind you that tuning out anything and everything going on this week is potentially as destructive. Even if I'm not acting yet, rest assured I'm watching. And I'm thinking. And when that right guy does that one thing that I know the masses won't be able to overlook, I'm pouncing.

Because in one of my leagues last year, I did get Dickey, Sale, Encarnacion and Craig, and safe to say the rest of the league paid the price.

I owe that championship not to brains, mathematical formulas or even my so-called drafting prowess, which stuck me with players like Daniel Hudson and Ricky Romero. No, what won me the league was a willingness to gamble on what no one else would.

Call it luck, if you will, but the only thing more reckless than relying on luck is not giving it a chance. If you knew now how little you know about the season ahead, you wouldn't turn down that lottery ticket so quickly.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Rockies' Nick Hundley hits game-tying home run in loss Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(1:01 am ET) Rockies catcher Nick Hundley went 2 for 5 with a single and two RBI, including a solo home run in Thursday's 9-8 loss to the Cardinals. Hundley launched his eighth home run in the sixth inning to tie the game at 6-6. 

Hundley has been swinging the bat well over the past two weeks or so. In his last 14 games, the backstop is hitting .358 with two home runs and nine RBI. 


Pirates outright OF Gorkys Hernandez to Triple-A
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:00 am ET) The Pirats announced late Thursday they have outrighted outfielder Gorkys Hernandez to Triple-A Indianapolis, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Hernandez had been on a rehab assignment at Triple-A. He was hitless in five at-bats with the Pirates in his first MLB action since 2012 before being put on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. 


A's RP Sean Doolittle (shoulder) could be nearing rehab
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:57 am ET) Athletics reliever Sean Doolittle threw from a mound on Thursday, the first time he's done so since landing on the disabled list for a second time at the end of May. 

Doolittle made 26 pitches, mixing in all of his pitches on Thursday.

"That's the best bullpen I've seen him throw," manager Bob Melvin said, per MLB.com. "I think he feels psychologically a little bit better about letting it go. It seemed to me that he was guarding it a little bit more so the last time. He definitely was not this time. It seemed like there was a lot more whip."

The left-hander, who is out with a strained left shoulder, is expected to have another bullpen session on Saturday. If all goes well, he could go out on a rehab assignment shortly thereafter. 


Rangers SP Derek Holland (shoulder) begins rehab assignment
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:50 am ET) Rangers left-hander Derek Holland began his minor-league rehab assignment, starting the game for Triple-A Round Rock on Thursday. Holland allowed two runs on two hits over 1 2/3 innings, suffering the loss. He walked one and struck out three, throwing 22 of his 39 pitches for strikes.

Holland has made one start all year for the Rangers, coming all the way back in early April. He has been sidelined ever since with a shoulder injury. Holland is currently expected to make two more starts before returning to the Rangers' rotation.


Indians 1B Carlos Santana hits big HR in tight victory
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:44 am ET) Indians first baseman Carlos Santana cracked a first-inning home run to propel Cleveland to a 3-1 victory on Thursday, his 12th homer of the season. 

Santana connected off A's starter Chris Bassitt to dead center, driving in Michael Brantley to give the Indians a 3-0 lead. 

Santana has now hit safely in eight of his last 10 games to raise his average to .227. 


Athletics SP Chris Bassitt remains winless
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:39 am ET) Athletics starter Chris Bassitt had a shaky first inning, allowing three runs, and despite pitching well for the remainder of his outing, wound up on the losing end of a 3-1 defeat Thursday.

Bassitt went seven innings, scattering six hits while striking out six and walking just one in what was the best of his five starts this season. However, Bassitt's record dropped to 0-4.


Cardinals' Matt Carpenter has monster night at the plate vs. Rockies
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:35 am ET) Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter had a strong night at the plate on Thursday. Carpenter went 4 for 5 with a double, four RBI and four runs scored in the 9-8 win over the Rockies.

Carpenter also knocked a pair of home runs off starter Chris Rusin, including a three-run shot in the second inning. The two longballs give Carpenter 12 on the season.

Over his last 10 games, Carpenter is now batting .297 with three homers and seven RBI.


Indians SP Carlos Carrasco pitches complete game in win
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(12:33 am ET) Carlos Carrasco was dominant for the Indians on Thursday, pitching a complete-game two-hitter as Cleveland earned a 3-1 win over the Athletics. 

Carrasco allowed a first-inning RBI double, but that was just about it, as he wound up striking out seven hitters while walking just one. Carrasco only needed 103 pitches to spin his gem, using 14 ground-ball outs to power through the Oakland lineup. 

It is Carrasco's first complete game of the season and the fourth of his career. He improves to 11-8 on the season, fourth-most wins in the AL. 


Tigers' Yoenis Cespedes homers, drives in three on Thursday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:30 am ET) Surrounded by trade rumors, Tigers left fielder Yoenis Cespedes went 3 for 5 with two singles and a two-run home run in Thursday's 9-8 win over the Orioles. 

Cespedes belted his 18th home run of the season with two outs in the fourth to cap a five-run inning for Detroit. 

Cespedes, who could be dealt prior to Friday's 4pm trade dealine, is batting .325 with five home runs and nine RBI over his last 10 games.


Giants acquire SP Mike Leake from Reds for two minor leaguers
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:24 am ET) The Giants have acquired right-hander Mike Leake from the Reds, CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports.

Leake had been solid in the Reds' rotation this year, going 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He has been even better here in July, as he posted a 1.25 ERA in five starts this month. 

The Giants have officially announced the trade. They are sending two minor leaguers, right-hander Keury Meila and first baseman Adam Duvall, to the Reds in exchange for Leake.


 
 
 
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