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Reality Check: Reacting or overreacting?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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You gave Justin Maxwell a look Monday morning, didn't you? Yeah, he won't be the only waiver fodder to get your attention this week.

Jhoulys Chacin with his strong 6 2/3 innings. Jackie Bradley with his three walks. Yonder Alonso with his home run. Collin Cowgill with his grand slam. They all had memorable Mondays.

And that only covers half a day's worth of action.

So many players, so few roster spots. In mixed leagues, that's the frustrating part about this time of year, and it's so frustrating that some people choose not to bother with the early-season headliners at all.

"A couple games can't replace months of research and evaluation," they say.

And it's true. They can't.

But what that line of thinking fails to account for is perception. Most longtime Fantasy owners think they have a good grasp of each player's potential. They think it's why they constructed their rosters the way they did.

But it's not. You know it's not. You may not have thought it through all the way, but you know perception drives the entire drafting process.

Let's say you really like Domonic Brown this year, as I do. Let's say you think he's going to outperform Jay Bruce this year. It's not the craziest prediction. If Brown meets the full extent of his potential, it's perfectly feasible, even. But you knew better than to draft him ahead of Bruce. Even knowing how you feel about Brown, you either opted to draft Bruce in the fourth or fifth round, like everybody else, or passed on him completely, hoping to get Brown 10 rounds later. In both scenarios, you drafted according to perceived value rather than potential value.

Most Viewed Players (as of 4/2)
Player Name Own %
1. Jose Fernandez, SP, Marlins 51
2. Collin Cowgill, OF, Mets 17
3. Brandon Maurer, SP, Mariners 35
4. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox 58
5. Phil Coke, RP, Tigers 22
6. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs 42
7. Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies 18
8. Gerardo Parra, OF, D-Backs 11
9. Ryan Ludwick, OF, Reds 50
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers 82

Maybe you don't like Brown this year. Maybe Anthony Rizzo is your guy. The illustration still works. Even believing Rizzo is going to hit .290 with 35 homers, you didn't take him over Billy Butler.

You know what kept you from doing that? Perception. At those critical moments in the draft, you ignored your personal assessment of a player for the sake of having it all.

What's more, you probably would have derided anyone who didn't. The practice of drafting according to the majority opinion rather than your own in an effort to maximize the talent on your roster is a strategy that normally goes unspoken because everybody knows to do it.

So why after the draft is there a complete surrender to potential value, ignoring the perceived value that halfway constructed your roster? Based on your own drafting habits, you could argue the latter is at least as important as the former. How you feel about a player matters only as much as how others feel about that player.

And to the nameless, faceless masses, nothing says more about a player than what he just did.

Don't believe me? Well, just look at the "most viewed" list on the CBSSports.com roster trends. The players at the top are the ones who -- like Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- just did something. People are looking at them. They're looking and thinking.

And some of them are striking, whether because they're just the impatient sort or because they already know what I'm about to advise:

Don't be shy on the waiver wire this time of year.

I didn't say go crazy. You don't want to be afraid to make a move, but if you turn over half your roster before we reach the end of the first week, you might as well quit playing now. Most players were drafted where they were for a reason, and you can rest assured I'm sticking with Brown even if he starts 0 for 18.

But if you allow yourself some flexibility with the back of your bench -- those players who nearly went undrafted in your league, who everyone else passed on 20 times over -- what do you stand to lose?

Maybe you really like Lucas Duda or Carlos Quentin, and that's fine. But if they don't deliver right out of the gate, what do you owe them? And what do you suspect others will do with them if you make them available? They already passed on them the first 20 times.

If the purpose of a roster spot is to protect the players you don't want going to someone else, shouldn't you protect the ones attracting the most attention?

Now, I'm not saying every Casey Kotchman or Philip Humber who has a good day deserves a roster spot. Those players have already proven their mediocrity. But among the players with genuine upside, isn't it possible you targeted the wrong ones on Draft Day?

You don't always see it coming, you know. If you did, you would have beaten everyone to R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Edwin Encarnacion and Allen Craig last year, which would have won you your league and given you so much self-assurance that you wouldn't trouble yourself with the inane ramblings of a peasant like me.

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Winning changes a man, man.

If you have the spot to play with, take the chance. It's like getting a lottery ticket with one of the numbers already filled in. Sure, it probably won't do anything for you, but with that little bit of a head start, how can you turn it down?

And here's the glue that holds it all together: It might be your only chance at it. So many other people are watching and thinking that any of those early-season headliners could be just one good at-bat away from going to someone else. And if that player turns out to be the one that rises from obscurity to claim someone else the championship, you'll be upset, to say the least.

So of those players mentioned -- Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- which would I be willing to pick up solely because of that one game? None, probably. I might pick up Alonso, but because I liked him as a sleeper even before that game. I might pick up Bradley, but because I recognize his upside as a top prospect. In other words, one game shouldn't be the reason you pick up a player, but it could be the impetus to do so. When the spotlight is on him, it's now or never.

Now, if Maxwell, Chacin and Cowgill keep it going for a week or two, I'll obviously have to take notice, particularly if Duda and Quentin are off to slow starts, but for now, I'm content letting them go to someone else. I'm just not convinced the upside is there.

Kind of pulled back the reins there, didn't I? Again, the point wasn't to have you rip apart your roster on opening day, but to remind you that tuning out anything and everything going on this week is potentially as destructive. Even if I'm not acting yet, rest assured I'm watching. And I'm thinking. And when that right guy does that one thing that I know the masses won't be able to overlook, I'm pouncing.

Because in one of my leagues last year, I did get Dickey, Sale, Encarnacion and Craig, and safe to say the rest of the league paid the price.

I owe that championship not to brains, mathematical formulas or even my so-called drafting prowess, which stuck me with players like Daniel Hudson and Ricky Romero. No, what won me the league was a willingness to gamble on what no one else would.

Call it luck, if you will, but the only thing more reckless than relying on luck is not giving it a chance. If you knew now how little you know about the season ahead, you wouldn't turn down that lottery ticket so quickly.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Yankees closer Andrew Miller turns lights out on Braves
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:47 am ET) Yankees closer Andrew Miller achieved something Saturday he had only achieved once since Aug. 2. That is, he retired the side in order to nail down a save.

His victim was Atlanta, which Miller disposed of quickly in the ninth. He fanned Pedro Ciriaco and Nick Markakis along the way to raise his save total to 28.

Miller has not allowed a run over his last six appearances.


Braves SP Matt Wisler denied run support in Saturday loss
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:42 am ET) Braves starter Matt Wisler needed to be near-perfect Saturday against the Yankees. He was merely good - and that wasn't good enough.

Wisler yielded two runs on four hits in six innings with four walks and four strikeouts. That was two runs too many as his team got blanked during his stint in the game.

The lone runs against him scored on a wild pitch in the first and RBI double by Didi Gregorius in the seventh.

Wisler bounced back quite well from a horrible performance last Sunday, when he allowed seven runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Cubs.


Yankees SP Luis Severino excellent again in beating Braves
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:37 am ET) Yankees rookie starter Luis Severino continued to improve with every outing Saturday against Atlanta. And he had already been performing quite well.

Severino managed his first shutout effort in evening his record to 2-2. He blanked the Braves on four hits through six innings while walking three and whiffing five.

He allowed two baserunners in the fourth and sixth innings, but escaped both jams.

Severino has given up only seven runs in 29 innings through five starts. He his lowered his ERA to an impressive 2.17.


Pirates closer Mark Melancon earns shaky 43rd save
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(1:31 am ET) Pirates sizzling closer Mark Melancon was merely mortal Saturday against Colorado, but still nailed down his league-leading 43rd save.

Melancon arrived with a 4-1 lead and promptly allowed a single and two-run homer to Nick Hundley. He then surrendered a single and needed a double-play lineout to finally end the drama.

It marked the first time he has given up more than one run in an appearance since April 21.


Twins SP Mike Pelfrey gives up four runs in short outing
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(1:27 am ET) Twins starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey's outing against the Astros didn't last very long on Saturday.

Pelfrey allowed four runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings of work. He struck out two batters and gave up a pair of walks.

With the loss, Pelfrey dropped to 6-8 on the year with a 4.04 ERA.


Rockies SP Chris Rusin finds groove too late in loss to Pirates
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(1:27 am ET) Mediocre was not good enough for Rockies starter Chris Rusin on Saturday night. It rarely is against Pittsburgh these days.

Rusin surrendered three runs on five hits and three walks in six innings in lowering his record to 4-7. He struck out three.

A three-run homer by Aramis Ramirez in the first got Rusin off to a terrible start, but he settled in thereafter. He retired eight of the next nine batters and allowed just two hits the rest of the way.

Rusin rebounded nicely from his last start, when he gave up 11 runs in only two innings against the Mets.


Astros closer Luke Gregerson strikes out two, picks up save
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(1:23 am ET) Astros closer Luke Gregerson recorded his 25th save of the season on Saturday against the Twins.

Gregorson strukc out two batters as he closed out the ninth inning of his team's 4-1 victory. He now has a 2.82 ERA this season.


Pirates SP J.A. Happ remains on a roll with third straight win
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
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Happ has found his control since arriving in Pittsburgh after struggling with it throughout his career. He walked just one in 5 2/3 innings with the Rockies in town. He allowed one run on five hits with two strikeouts.

The only tally came on a groundout in the third inning.

Happ has been on a tremendous roll with only two runs allowed in 23 innings over his last four starts.


Astros SP Mike Fiers earns seventh win of the year
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(1:17 am ET) Astros starting pitcher Mike Fiers recorded his seventh win of the season on Saturday against the Twins.

Fiers allowed only one run on three hits in six innings of work. He struck out five batters and issued three walks.

With the win, Fiers improved to 7-9 on the season with a 3.54 ERA.


White Sox SP Jeff Samardzija gives up five runs in loss
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(1:00 am ET) White Sox starter Jeff Samardzija allowed five runs in a loss to the Mariners on Saturday.

Samardzija lasted just 5 2/3 innings after giving up the five runs on eight hits. He recorded eight strikeouts while allowing three walks.

With the loss, Samardzija dropped to 8-11 on the season with a 4.85 ERA.


 
 
 
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