Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Reality Check: Reacting or overreacting?

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

You gave Justin Maxwell a look Monday morning, didn't you? Yeah, he won't be the only waiver fodder to get your attention this week.

Jhoulys Chacin with his strong 6 2/3 innings. Jackie Bradley with his three walks. Yonder Alonso with his home run. Collin Cowgill with his grand slam. They all had memorable Mondays.

And that only covers half a day's worth of action.

So many players, so few roster spots. In mixed leagues, that's the frustrating part about this time of year, and it's so frustrating that some people choose not to bother with the early-season headliners at all.

"A couple games can't replace months of research and evaluation," they say.

And it's true. They can't.

But what that line of thinking fails to account for is perception. Most longtime Fantasy owners think they have a good grasp of each player's potential. They think it's why they constructed their rosters the way they did.

But it's not. You know it's not. You may not have thought it through all the way, but you know perception drives the entire drafting process.

Let's say you really like Domonic Brown this year, as I do. Let's say you think he's going to outperform Jay Bruce this year. It's not the craziest prediction. If Brown meets the full extent of his potential, it's perfectly feasible, even. But you knew better than to draft him ahead of Bruce. Even knowing how you feel about Brown, you either opted to draft Bruce in the fourth or fifth round, like everybody else, or passed on him completely, hoping to get Brown 10 rounds later. In both scenarios, you drafted according to perceived value rather than potential value.

Most Viewed Players (as of 4/2)
Player Name Own %
1. Jose Fernandez, SP, Marlins 51
2. Collin Cowgill, OF, Mets 17
3. Brandon Maurer, SP, Mariners 35
4. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox 58
5. Phil Coke, RP, Tigers 22
6. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs 42
7. Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies 18
8. Gerardo Parra, OF, D-Backs 11
9. Ryan Ludwick, OF, Reds 50
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers 82

Maybe you don't like Brown this year. Maybe Anthony Rizzo is your guy. The illustration still works. Even believing Rizzo is going to hit .290 with 35 homers, you didn't take him over Billy Butler.

You know what kept you from doing that? Perception. At those critical moments in the draft, you ignored your personal assessment of a player for the sake of having it all.

What's more, you probably would have derided anyone who didn't. The practice of drafting according to the majority opinion rather than your own in an effort to maximize the talent on your roster is a strategy that normally goes unspoken because everybody knows to do it.

So why after the draft is there a complete surrender to potential value, ignoring the perceived value that halfway constructed your roster? Based on your own drafting habits, you could argue the latter is at least as important as the former. How you feel about a player matters only as much as how others feel about that player.

And to the nameless, faceless masses, nothing says more about a player than what he just did.

Don't believe me? Well, just look at the "most viewed" list on the CBSSports.com roster trends. The players at the top are the ones who -- like Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- just did something. People are looking at them. They're looking and thinking.

And some of them are striking, whether because they're just the impatient sort or because they already know what I'm about to advise:

Don't be shy on the waiver wire this time of year.

I didn't say go crazy. You don't want to be afraid to make a move, but if you turn over half your roster before we reach the end of the first week, you might as well quit playing now. Most players were drafted where they were for a reason, and you can rest assured I'm sticking with Brown even if he starts 0 for 18.

But if you allow yourself some flexibility with the back of your bench -- those players who nearly went undrafted in your league, who everyone else passed on 20 times over -- what do you stand to lose?

Maybe you really like Lucas Duda or Carlos Quentin, and that's fine. But if they don't deliver right out of the gate, what do you owe them? And what do you suspect others will do with them if you make them available? They already passed on them the first 20 times.

If the purpose of a roster spot is to protect the players you don't want going to someone else, shouldn't you protect the ones attracting the most attention?

Now, I'm not saying every Casey Kotchman or Philip Humber who has a good day deserves a roster spot. Those players have already proven their mediocrity. But among the players with genuine upside, isn't it possible you targeted the wrong ones on Draft Day?

You don't always see it coming, you know. If you did, you would have beaten everyone to R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Edwin Encarnacion and Allen Craig last year, which would have won you your league and given you so much self-assurance that you wouldn't trouble yourself with the inane ramblings of a peasant like me.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Winning changes a man, man.

If you have the spot to play with, take the chance. It's like getting a lottery ticket with one of the numbers already filled in. Sure, it probably won't do anything for you, but with that little bit of a head start, how can you turn it down?

And here's the glue that holds it all together: It might be your only chance at it. So many other people are watching and thinking that any of those early-season headliners could be just one good at-bat away from going to someone else. And if that player turns out to be the one that rises from obscurity to claim someone else the championship, you'll be upset, to say the least.

So of those players mentioned -- Maxwell, Chacin, Bradley, Alonso and Cowgill -- which would I be willing to pick up solely because of that one game? None, probably. I might pick up Alonso, but because I liked him as a sleeper even before that game. I might pick up Bradley, but because I recognize his upside as a top prospect. In other words, one game shouldn't be the reason you pick up a player, but it could be the impetus to do so. When the spotlight is on him, it's now or never.

Now, if Maxwell, Chacin and Cowgill keep it going for a week or two, I'll obviously have to take notice, particularly if Duda and Quentin are off to slow starts, but for now, I'm content letting them go to someone else. I'm just not convinced the upside is there.

Kind of pulled back the reins there, didn't I? Again, the point wasn't to have you rip apart your roster on opening day, but to remind you that tuning out anything and everything going on this week is potentially as destructive. Even if I'm not acting yet, rest assured I'm watching. And I'm thinking. And when that right guy does that one thing that I know the masses won't be able to overlook, I'm pouncing.

Because in one of my leagues last year, I did get Dickey, Sale, Encarnacion and Craig, and safe to say the rest of the league paid the price.

I owe that championship not to brains, mathematical formulas or even my so-called drafting prowess, which stuck me with players like Daniel Hudson and Ricky Romero. No, what won me the league was a willingness to gamble on what no one else would.

Call it luck, if you will, but the only thing more reckless than relying on luck is not giving it a chance. If you knew now how little you know about the season ahead, you wouldn't turn down that lottery ticket so quickly.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Athletics acquire Ike Davis via trade with Pirates
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/23/2014) The Athletics announced they acquired first baseman Ike Davis from the Pirates Sunday.

The Pirates had previously designated Davis for assignment. To acquire Davis, the A’s exchanged international slot money with the Pirates. The A’s traded their international slot 27 and received the Pirates’ 86th international slot. The A’s then designated outfielder Andrew Brown for assignment.

In 2014, Davis hit .233 with 11 home runs and 19 doubles. His best season came in 2012 while playing for the Mets when he hit 30 home runs and had 90 RBI.


Red Sox, Hanley Ramirez growing more serious in FA talks
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/23/2014) Talks between the Red Sox and free-agent shortstop Hanley Ramirez have grown more serious in recent days, CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports.

The Red Sox are also in play for another high-priced free-agent infielder in Pablo Sandoval, and there are indications that the team could sign both players rather than choosing between one or the other. Ramirez has told teams he's willing to play any position requested, and it's unclear where he'd fit in Boston if the team is able to land both free-agent targets. Throw in the team's talks with former Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester, and it could be shaping up to be a huge offseason in Boston.


Indians acquire Charles Brewer for cash considerations
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/23/2014) The Indians acquired pitcher Charles Brewer from the Diamondbacks for cash considerations Saturday.

Brewer was designated for assignment by Arizona on Thursday as they tidied up the 40-man roster in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft. He went 11-12 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 138:48 K:BB ratio in 169 2/3 innings over 29 starts between Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno in 2014.


Report: Astros interested in closer David Robertson
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Astros have expressed interest in signing pitcher David Robertson, reports the New York Post.

The Astros are in the market for a closer and the team has contacted Robertson’s agent.

In 2014, Robertson saved 39 games for the Yankees and the team is interested in bringing him back, but are reportedly hesitant to offer him a four-year deal.


Twins sign Argenis Diaz to minor league deal
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Twins signed second baseman Argenis Diaz to a minor league contract.

Diaz is a career .242 hitter in 22 games.


Athletics sign Ryan Verdugo to minor league deal
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Athletics signed pitcher Ryan Verdugo to a minor league contract.

Verdugo last pitched at the major league level in 2012, producing a 32.40 ERA in one start.


Tigers sign Jefry Marte to minor league contract
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Tigers signed third baseman Jefry Marte to a minor league contract.

In 2014, Marte hit .259 with 10 home runs at Double-A.


Dodgers trade for pitcher Mike Bolsinger
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Dodgers acquired pitcher Mike Bolsinger from the Diamondbacks in exchange for cash, reports MLB.com.

The Dodgers also designated pitcher Jarret Martin for assignment.


Braves sign Jake Brigham to minor league deal
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Braves signed pitcher Jake Brigham to a minor league contract.

Brigham has yet to make his MLB debut.


Yankees ink Jonathan Galvez to minor league deal
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11/22/2014) The Yankees signed infielder Jonathan Galvez to a minor league contract.

 
 
 
Rankings