Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

By the Numbers: Pitchers impacted by park factors

  •  

Matt Cain has evolved into an elite Fantasy starting pitcher, but how different would his value be if he played for a team other than the Giants?

Cain's flyball tendencies play well at AT&T Park, but on the road, he gives up home runs at a higher rate and sports a career 3.57 ERA and 1.22 WHIP that pale in comparison to his home stats (3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Cain is good enough on the road to start regardless of venue, but there are plenty of other pitchers whose Fantasy value is shaped much more strongly by where they pitch.

The Giants play in one of the majors' best parks for pitchers, especially when it comes to containing the home run. That has made a difference for their staff as a whole, as they allowed the fewest homers (53) in the majors at home in 2012, but tied for the 10th-highest total of home runs allowed (89) on the road.

Several other clubs play in parks that similarly favor pitching, while other stadiums are highly skewed towards batters. For pitchers who fall short of must-start status, those park effects can make all the difference as to whether you should start or sit them.

In last week's column on park effects and hitters, I outlined the criteria used to determine which venues are considered to be extreme parks for pitchers and hitters. The emphasis in this week's analysis will once again be on the effect that stadiums have on home runs, as this is where parks generally make their greatest impact. We will highlight the most extreme pitcher's and hitter's parks and identify the starting pitchers who stand to gain or lose the most value from their home stadiums.

I have taken PETCO Park and Safeco Field out of the analysis, however. Though both parks have traditionally been havens for pitchers, we have yet to see how the recent changes to their dimensions could affect the pitchers who play their home games there.

Note: All stats are current for games played through Monday, April 15.

Homer-Squelching Parks

Angels (Angel Stadium of Anaheim): As a Mariner, Jason Vargas benefited from pitching home games at Safeco Field, having compiled a 3.38 ERA there. He should have similar success at Angel Stadium, which could supplant Safeco as the American League's premier pitcher's park. Owners just have to be careful about starting Vargas in hitter-friendly road venues. If Tommy Hanson's velocity ever comes back, he could at least be worth starting in his home games, as the Angels' park should limit the damage caused by his mild flyball tendencies.

Giants (AT&T Park): Tim Lincecum's propensity to allow homers and walks has gotten so bad that he should be benched in standard mixed leagues, but even during his dismal 2012 season, he allowed only seven home runs over 102 home innings. If you're going to trust Lincecum, do it for his home starts. Some owners may look to bench Ryan Vogelsong on the road, as his ERA away from AT&T Park is just 3.82 since joining the Giants in 2011. However, those road splits have more to do with his strand rate than his homer rate, but as long as he continues to keep the ball in the park, he should be a safe start most weeks.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Marlins (Marlins Park): Aside from Jose Fernandez, the Marlins don't have starters worth using in standard mixed leagues, but a couple of deeper-league options have more value when pitching at home. Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Slowey are too flyball-prone to trust in most venues, but at Marlins Park, both are must-starts in NL-only leagues. LeBlanc in particular has a history of good splits at pitcher's parks, having fared well in home starts as both a Marlin and a Padre.

Athletics (O.co Coliseum; vs. LHB only): Southpaw Tommy Milone has actually had more problems with homers against lefties than righties, so it's little surprise that he has had great home splits as a member of the A's, given how tough his home park is on left-handed batters. In 17 starts at O.co Coliseum, Milone has allowed only eight home runs over 112 1/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA. When he pitches in Oakland, Milone can be used even in one-start weeks in standard mixed leagues.

Twins (Target Field; vs. LHB only): Of the Twins' top four starters, Vance Worley is the least reliant on ground balls to have success, so especially as a righty, he would seem to benefit from having Target Field as his home park. However, Worley has had more trouble containing righties over his career, and Target Field plays as a neutral power park for right-handed hitters. Fantasy owners can disregard the park factor for Twins pitchers, including Worley, in their home starts.

Red Sox (Fenway Park; vs. LHB only): The Red Sox starter who would probably benefit the most from pitching at Fenway Park is John Lackey (biceps), but he's stuck on the 15-day disabled list. Also, it's been since 2010 since we have seen evidence of Lackey getting a boost from his home splits, and even then, a .334 home BABIP erased whatever advantage he might have enjoyed from a low homer rate. There's not much of a Fantasy impact here for Boston's rotation.

Indians (Progressive Field vs. RHB only): Brett Myers has infamously struggled with the long ball over his career, but Progressive Field just might be the cure for what ails him. He has been more homer-prone versus righties, so Myers' new home park could help to keep his home run rate in check. It won't be enough to make him viable in standard mixed leagues, but Myers can be started in deeper leagues when he's at home.

Pirates (PNC Park; vs. RHB only): Better command made a difference for A.J. Burnett last season, but his move from Yankee Stadium to PNC Park played a role, too. Allowing only eight home runs over 110 1/3 innings helped Burnett to limit his home ERA to 3.10, so if you're ever going to sit him, it should be when he's on the road. James McDonald had favorable home splits in each of his two full seasons with the Bucs, and Monday's debacle at the hands of the Cardinals aside, McDonald should be used for home starts in deeper mixed leagues, even in some one-start weeks.

Cardinals (Busch Stadium; vs. RHB only): Lance Lynn is being started in 78 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, but with a career 4.37 ERA in away games, should he be benched when pitching on the road? Lynn's HR/9 rate in away games (1.0) is considerably higher than in home games (0.6), but he should still be good enough to use in most weeks, regardless of venue. Lynn has been penalized on the road with a .350 BABIP that is bound to shrink going forward.

Homer-Friendly Parks

White Sox (U.S. Cellular Field): Contact pitchers with decent walk and ground ball rates are easier to find than a Kardashian in a grocery store tabloid, so there's no reason to go out of your way to get Jose Quintana in a mixed league. If you do own him in a deeper format, you can at least trust him when he makes starts on the road. Not surprisingly, Quintana has been taken out of U.S. Cellular Field nine times in his 69 1/3 innings there, contributing to a 4.54 home ERA. Away from his launching pad of a home park, Quintana has a 3.12 ERA and a 0.7 HR/9 rate. Quintana has probably overperformed a bit on the road, but he should still be worth a deep-league start when away from the Windy City.

Orioles (Oriole Park at Camden Yards): With high flyball rates, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez both profile as pitchers who would fare worse at Camden Yards than away from it, and that has actually been the case. Chen's ERA and WHIP splits are actually not very drastic, as he has piled up more strikeouts in home starts. Gonzalez, on the other hand, has been a far better pitcher overall on the road than at home. Having pitched fewer than 40 career innings at home, perhaps Gonzalez's splits will narrow. Both pitchers have strong enough flyball tendencies, though, that they are risky in home starts. Unless they are facing particularly weak lineups, they should be sat when pitching in Baltimore.

Rockies (Coors Field): Is Jhoulys Chacin back to his rookie form? His early ERA and WHIP say "yes," but a 6.5 percent whiff rate says "maybe not." Even assuming the best for Chacin, he has not been immune to the Coors Effect, so he is a risk to start at home. If he continues to induce grounders like he has in the early going, Chacin should be safe to use in away games, and a 3.01 career road ERA attests to that.

Reds (Great American Ball Park): Homer Bailey has been aptly named for his home starts, and even during last season's breakout, he allowed 21 of his 26 homers at GABP. He may not match last year's 2.32 road ERA, but Bailey is good enough at limiting home runs away from Cincinnati to be a worthwhile start in most formats. Mike Leake also has lopsided splits, but he's had enough trouble with homers on the road (career 1.1 HR/9) that he is still just a deep league option during road trips.

Brewers (Miller Park): Kyle Lohse comes to Miller Park after enjoying low home run rates as a Cardinal, which were aided by pitching home games at Busch Stadium. He may be trustworthy most weeks on the road, but he is not an automatic start at home. Mike Fiers has issues other than this flyball tendencies, as his starts are being skipped for now. Even if he resumes getting regular turns in the rotation, Fiers should be avoided some weeks at home, where he has allowed 12 home runs in 74 2/3 career innings.

Yankees (Yankee Stadium; vs. LHB only): Both Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova have lopsided HR/9 splits. Nova's 5.02 ERA from last season has rightfully soured owners in many mixed leagues, but Hughes' 3.70 ERA from June forward last year showed that he still has value. He's still not all that safe at home, though, and he relied on an 80 percent strand rate (per FanGraphs.com) to post a 3.74 ERA at Yankee Stadium in 2012. Hughes is worth owning in mixed leagues, but he should be used with caution whenever he has home starts.

Rangers (Rangers Ballpark at Arlington; vs. LHB only): Derek Holland has been good at containing lefties, so you might think that he is capable of taming his home park. However, the Ballpark at Arlington is also a pretty good -- if not extreme -- venue for right-handed power hitters. That has certainly factored into Holland's career 5.20 home ERA. With a 3.50 road ERA going back to 2011, Holland is a solid option for standard mixed leagues when he's on road trips.

Indians (Progressive Field; vs. LHB only): Lefties have taken Zach McAllister out of Progressive Field nine times in just 49 1/3 innings, so his home park is clearly not working for him. He's mainly an AL-only option anyway, but even in those formats, owners should consider sitting the righty during homestands.

Blue Jays (Rogers Centre; vs. RHB only): Like fellow southpaw Holland, J.A. Happ has been much better at handling lefty batters, but his struggles with righties could be especially problematic at Rogers Centre. Happ made strides last season in improving his ground ball and walk rates, so he is worth owning in mixed leagues, but his splits make him a gamble to start when he pitches at home.

Phillies (Citizens Bank Park; vs. LHB only): Lefty batters have frequently taken both Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan deep over the course of their respective careers, but that won't have much of a Fantasy impact for either pitcher. While both are dangerous to use when starting in Philadelphia, neither is a recommended option on the road either.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Phillies RHP Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez targets rotation spot
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:21 am ET) Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro has declared that Cuban import Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez will compete for a rotation spot in spring training.

Gonzalez was winless in four decisions at three different levels in the minors but performed well enough to record a 3.11 ERA. He struggled with his control with 26 walks in 46 1/3 innings.

"We're going to give him every opportunity to be in our rotation," Amaro said via MLB.com. "We have to try to create as many opportunities for starting pitching as we possibly can. We're not going to be able to go through a season with five or six pitchers. It's probably going to take seven to 10 pitchers.

"He personally feels more comfortable being in the rotation. Whether or not he can provide that remains to be seen. But after speaking with him it was very important to him to be prepared mentally and physically for this offseason to get stretched out."

Gonzalez was promoted to the Phillies in September and yielded four runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings.


Epstein laments Jackson deal, but still looking to improve Cubs
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:03 am ET) Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein has stated that he won't be satisfied adding one starting pitcher to the rotation in the offseason.

"We need impact starting pitching," he told CSNChicago.com. "If you can add a top-of-the-rotation starter to what we have with (Jake) Arrieta, et al, it becomes really, really interesting in a hurry. We also could use just another quality, stable arm to go with it. So in an ideal world, we'll add two starting pitchers."

Epstein admitted he made a mistake in his disastrous signing of Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal, which will pale in comparison to the money destined for potential free agents Jon Lester and Max Scherzer this winter. Jackson is 14-33 with a 5.58 ERA in two years with the Cubs, who are on the hook for two more seasons. But Epstein realizes that he must return to the free agent market to sufficiently improve his staff.

"I'm very confident that we'll add impact pitching from outside the organization," he said. "It has a chance to happen this winter. But we're not going to make any guarantees."


Yankees veteran Mark Teixeira seeking strength in offseason
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:48 am ET) Yankees aging first baseman Mark Teixeira has lamented what he called a "bad season" and plans on improving his upper-body strength before next year.

Teixeira batted a career-low .216 (aside from 2013, when he had just 53 at-bats), though he did rack up 23 home runs and 62 RBI in 440 at-bats. He told ESPN that he was negatively affected coming off a right wrist injury. But he added that he needs to get stronger if he wants to rebound.

"I didn't realize how weak I was upper-body," he said. "I'm trying to be working a lot harder. That will be my adjustment this year."

Teixeira will turn 35 years old on April 15.


Report: Inquiries pouring in for Blue Jays 1B/DH Adam Lind
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:22 am ET) Fresh off a season in which he batted .321, Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind is receiving plenty of attention in the trade market, according to the Toronto Sun.

Lind totaled six home runs and 40 RBI in 2014. "I hear the Blue Jays are getting a lot of interest on Lind and not just from American League teams," an executive told the Sun.

He started 47 games at first base and 36 at designated hitter this season. His limited skills as a position player makes interest from NL teams a bit of a surprise. What is not a surprise is that teams are intrigued by his contract situation. The Jays will likely pick up his 7.5 million option for 2015 and, if he performs well, his $8 million option for the following year.

The Jays also have an option on Lind for 2016 at $8 million.


Royals C Salvador Perez homers in Game 1 World Series loss
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/21/2014) Royals catcher Salvador Perez went 1 for 3 with a solo home run in his team's 7-1 loss to the Giants in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday.

Perez struck the only blow the Royals could manage on offense, finally getting a run off Giants starter Madison Bumgarner after he allowed only two hits through six scoreless innings. By the time of Perez's bomb, the Royals were dug in a hole from which they couldn't escape. It's a rare sign of life from the catcher's bat, as he's hit just .135/.158/.216 in 37 postseason at-bats despite the Royals racking up win after win in the first three rounds.


Giants' Pablo Sandoval drives in two in Game 1 World Series win
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/21/2014) Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval went 2 for 5 with a double and two RBI in his team's 7-1 win over the Royals in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday.

Sandoval opened and closed the scoring for the Giants in the win, delivering an RBI double in the top of the first inning (and later scoring on a Hunter Pence home run) then adding an RBI single in the seventh to push the lead to 7-0. While he has yet to deliver a home run this October, Sandoval has been hard to conquer at the plate, hitting .333/.396/.438 in 48 postseason at-bats.


Giants OF Hunter Pence homers in Game 1 World Series win
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/21/2014) Giants outfielder Hunter Pence went 2 for 3 with two walks and a two-run home run in his team's 7-1 win over the Royals in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday.

Pence delivered a monster blast to center field in the first inning to put his team up 3-0, and the Royals would have little answer for another excellent performance by Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner. It was the first home run of October for Pence, who has hit .286/.388/.452 in 42 postseason at-bats.


Madison Bumgarner allows one run in Giants' Game 1 World Series win
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/21/2014) Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner earned a win in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday, allowing just one earned run on three hits and one walk in seven innings while striking out five in his team's 7-1 victory over the Royals.

Bumgarner (3-1) continued to look excellent fresh off winning the NLCS MVP award. He fired six scoreless innings and was up 7-0 before surrendering a solo home run in the bottom of the seventh. Bumgarner has delivered a 1.40 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 33:6 K:BB ratio in 38 2/3 postseason innings spanning five starts. He'll get the ball in Game 5 Sunday if the Royals can avoid a sweep. Game 2 is set for Wednesday in Kansas City.


James Shields comes up short in Royals' Game 1 World Series loss
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/21/2014) Royals pitcher James Shields was roughed up in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday, taking a loss after surrendering five earned runs on seven hits and one walk in three-plus innings while striking out one in his team's 7-1 defeat against the Giants.

Shields (1-1) hadn't been having a great postseason despite the Royals' impressive run of wins, giving up 10 earned runs in 16 innings heading into his Game 1 start. His night turned south immediately Tuesday, as the Giants followed up a one-out, RBI double with a two-run home run to take a 3-0 lead in the first inning. Shields retired seven straight heading into the fourth, where he opened the inning with a double, walk and RBI single to get the hook. The loss, which was the first of the postseason for the Royals, puts the AL pennant winner in a 1-0 hole going into Game 2 Wednesday in Kansas City.


Yankees SP CC Sabathia nearly '100 percent'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/21/2014) Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia said Tuesday that he feels "pretty much back to 100 percent" and expects a full 200-inning workload in 2015, MLB.com reports.

"It's definitely a huge relief," Sabathia said. "I feel good enough to do all my workouts, to play catch and kind of have a normal offseason."

Sabathia, who underwent season-ending knee surgery in July, starting throwing off flat ground in late September and plans to report to spring training early.


 
 
 
Rankings