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By the Numbers: No mere April fools

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Remember the great Aprils that Ryan Sweeney, Carlos Pena and Anthony Bass had a year ago? I'm guessing not many of us do, which goes to show how premature it can be to make judgments about a player's value after just one month. A handful of starts by a pitcher or 100 or so plate appearances for a hitter still represent a small statistical sample, but that doesn't mean that a strong April can't lead to great things the rest of the year.

Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Willingham and Jonathon Niese each started off hot in 2012, and all were quality Fantasy options throughout the season. Lots of players are capable of taking off on a month-long spree, but it's not easy to tell which ones can sustain their value.

This week, I'll take a look at seven players with strong starts who are showing signs of having more long-term value than they appeared to have just a month ago. The common link among these players is that each is succeeding due to some improvement in their skill indicators, and some portion of their past history suggests that the improvement could be more than just fleeting.

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While each is a risk to regress to his previous level of performance, the players analyzed here each have shown something in the early weeks that, at minimum, make them worth tracking. Owners willing to take gambles should start them or look to acquire them if the asking price isn't too high. Even though each is off to a good start, their own owners may think that it's too good to be true.

John Buck, C, Mets: With nine homers, Buck is nearly halfway to his career-high of 20 just a month into the season. It helps somewhat that Buck is on pace to demolish his career high in plate appearances, though prospect Travis D'Arnaud could still steal playing time late in the season, once he has time to recover from the broken bone in his foot. For now, though, Buck is not only playing regularly, but he is hitting flyballs at the highest rate of his career. He probably won't continue to turn nearly one-fourth of them into homers, but as long as Buck has an elevated flyball rate, he's capable of 25-plus homers. Given that he has always trended as a flyball hitter, it's looking more and more like a probable scenario.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, Rangers: After years of declining power, Pierzynski shocked the Fantasy world with a 27-homer campaign to cap off his White Sox career. Now in his first year with the Rangers, Pierzynski is helping owners to shed doubt that his 2012 surge was just a one-year fluke. Last season's 17 percent home run-to-flyball ratio was far out of line with his career norms, even from his better seasons, but so far this year, he's exceeded it with a 21 percent mark. Pierzynski is surely due for some regression in that stat, but then again, he can maintain his home run power by raising a 28 percent flyball rate that is below average for him.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Athletics: When Donaldson emerged out of spring training last season getting the lion's share of starts at third base, he looked like a promising Fantasy option. He had a history of good plate discipline with decent power, and he had catcher eligibility. Donaldson no longer qualifies at catcher in most leagues, but this season, we're seeing a return to a more patient approach and increased doubles power. He is also capable of hitting flyballs at a higher rate than his current 28 percent, so we could see more homers in Donaldson's future. He probably won't hit .300 over the long run, but his contact and power skills are good enough to keep him relevant in standard mixed leagues.

Lucas Duda, OF, Mets: Duda is currently a top 40 outfielder in points leagues, even though he is batting just .246. He has been incredibly patient, averaging 4.54 pitches per plate appearance and sporting a 22 percent walk rate. When Duda swings, he misses too often, but a decreasing ground ball-to-flyball ratio shows that the contact he does make is usually hard. Duda showed good home run power in the minors, and there's room for him to improve his batting average, not only by cutting back on strikeouts, but by improving on an .059 flyball BABIP. It's time to think about Duda as more than just a reserve outfielder.

Paul Maholm, SP, Braves: Last season, particularly during the second half, Maholm mysteriously became more of a strikeout pitcher. The southpaw had always been able to strike out lefty batters, but suddenly he was getting less contact from righties. Perhaps it's no coincidence that, according to BrooksBaseball.net, Maholm started throwing more two-strike sliders to righties last year, as the slider is Maholm's best pitch for whiffs. CBSSports.com blogger Chris Cwik has also noted that Maholm uses his cutter to set up his slider and fastball to great effect, but he's been getting strikeouts at an even higher rate this year, even though he hasn't thrown many cutters. Maholm has been good at avoiding walks and homers for years; now that he has been good at avoiding contact over an extended period, he has elevated himself into the top 60 of starting pitchers.

Kyle Kendrick, SP/RP, Phillies: Like Maholm, Kendrick took a step forward late last season while spending the last two months in the Phillies' rotation. Kendrick started throwing more strikes and getting more grounders, and while he's getting fewer whiffs so far this year, he's still keeping flyballs to a minimum. Even recently, though, Kendrick has continued to be vulnerable to home runs at Citizens Bank Park, so he's hardly a must-start in mixed leagues. However, he's been good on the road since 2011, so he may be a better streaming option than you think, especially in weeks with away starts.

Patrick Corbin, SP, Diamondbacks: Back in spring training, I thought Randall Delgado would be the better choice to be Arizona's fifth starter, but while Delgado is flailing in Triple-A, Corbin is proving that the Diamondbacks made the right decision. Corbin has increased his fastball velocity, but he hasn't lost his pinpoint control. The increased velocity has also translated into more swinging strikes and strikeouts over his last three starts. That span covers just 21 innings, so it could just be a blip on the radar, but at worst, he could be an efficient innings-eater for points leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
SS Chris Taylor makes second start for Mariners on Tuesday
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(6:18 pm ET) Chris Taylor is back in the Mariners’ starting lineup on Tuesday, batting ninth and playing shortstop in Los Angeles against the Angels.

Taylor was promoted from Triple-A on Monday and went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts in his first major-league action of the season.

Taylor was competing for the M's shortstop job in spring training but got derailed with a broken wrist on March 13.


Cardinals' Marco Gonzales to make Triple-A start Saturday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(6:18 pm ET) Cardinals pitcher Marco Gonzales (pectoral) is scheduled to start Saturday with Triple-A Memphis, MLB.com reports.

Gonzales is on the minor-league disabled list with a left pectoral strain. He has a 4.50 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched and could be a factor in the major-league rotation soon.


Tigers pitcher Buck Farmer set as starter for Triple-A Toledo
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6:16 pm ET) Brad Ausmus has declared that Tigers premier pitching prospect Buck Farmer will remain in the starting rotation at Triple-A Toledo for now rather than be promoted and moved into the bullpen.

Farmer owns a 4.10 ERA with the Mud Hens, but is coming off a terrible outing against Gwinnett. He has shown the ability to miss bats with 32 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings pitched.

"(Justin Verlander)'s probably going to be a little while so it doesn't hurt to have another guy that can come and pitch at the major league level as a starter," Ausmus told the Detroit Free Press. "And starting for him right now is good for him developmentally, developing his pitches and throwing strikes."


Angels OF Collin Cowgill gets rare start on Tuesday vs. Mariners
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(6:11 pm ET) Angels outfielder Collin Cowgill was in the starting lineup, batting ninth and playing left field Tuesday against the Mariners. Cowgill hasn't started a game since April 24, as he has been mainly used as a late-inning defensive replacement in recent games.

Cowgill is replacing Matt Joyce in the lineup, who has started nine straight games and has really struggled over that stretch. He will get a breather on Tuesday, but will likely be back in the lineup on Wednesday.


Angels C Carlos Perez makes MLB debut on Tuesday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(6:07 pm ET) Angels catcher Carlos Perez will make his Major League debut on Tuesday against the Mariners. Perez will be the starting catcher, batting eighth for manager Mike Scioscia.

The 24-year-old was recalled from Triple-A on Monday, after hitting .361 in 72 at-bats with the Salt Lake Bees. 

Regular catcher Chris Iannetta has struggled mightedly this year, batting a putrid .094 with just one double on the season. 


Pirates' Hurdle not concerned with McCutchen's knee 'right now'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(6:06 pm ET) Pirates manager Clint Hurdle acknowledged Tuesday that center fielder Andrew McCutchen is picking his spots to run to first base on batted balls to limit the wear on his knee, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.

"I don't think it's a concerning area right now," Hurdle said about McCutchen's knee.

McCutchen has struggled in the early part of the season while dealing with the health issues. He's hit just .193/.291/.307 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 88 at-bats.


Twins' Oswaldo Arcia feeling better with hip injury
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(6:06 pm ET) Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia said Tuesday his hip is feeling better and noticeably limping for the last two days, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Arcia missed Monday's game with the issue and played two of the last five games for Minnesota. He is hitting .276 with eight RBI in 58 at-bats this season.


Angels RF Kole Calhoun returns to leadoff spot Tuesday vs. M's
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(6:00 pm ET) After spending the last four games in the cleanup spot, Angels right fielder Kole Calhoun will return to the leadoff position in Mike Scisoscia's lineup on Tuesday against the Mariners. Calhoun didn't exactly impress hitting fourth, as he went 4 for 17 with zero extra base hits in those five games.

Contrastly, Calhoun is batting .299 when hitting from the top of the order, and he will assume that spot on Tuesday. David Freese is batting cleanup on Tuesday.  


Rangers 1B Mitch Moreland throws, hits off tee Tuesday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(5:56 pm ET) Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland (elbow) threw from 75 feet Tuesday, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. He also took 25 swings off a tee.

Moreland would like to hit in the batting cage Wednesday. Moreland is expected to be sidelined until at least mid-May.


Rangers CF Leonys Martin day to day with wrist injury
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5:54 pm ET) Rangers center fielder Leonys Martin is considered day to day with a wrist injury, according to MLB.com.

Martin, who suffered a wrist injury in Monday's game trying to make a diving catch, is available to pinch-run and play defense. If he is unable to play by this weekend, the Rangers may put him on the disabled list to recover from the injury.


 
 
 
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