Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy Use your Fantasy skills to win Cash Prizes. Join or start a league today. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Reality Check: Time to buy low on Kemp?

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

If you've poked around the Fantasy News page enough, you've probably come across our in-season rankings. If not, I'll save you the trouble by directing you straight to them.

Pretty cool, right?

They're new this year. Having relied on computers and algorithms to maintain one default set of rankings that didn't quite live up to anyone's standards in past seasons, we decided to reintroduce the human element this year. Now, Al Melchior, Nando Di Fino and I maintain our own separate rankings, listing the most relevant players at each position in the order we'd prefer to own them. As circumstances change throughout the season -- whether due to injuries, role changes or unexpected performances -- so do those lists, always with the rest of the season in mind.

It's a laborious undertaking, but it's an infinitely valuable one. Continually updating rest-of-season rankings will address just about any Fantasy question you have. They may not help you set your lineup from week to week -- for that, you have the Pitching Forecaster and Hit Parade -- but they'll help you make decisions for the long haul.

Want to know whether you should drop Ichiro Suzuki for Angel Pagan? My take is in the rankings. Want to know how much you should buy into Kelly Johnson's recent hot streak? Again, check the rankings. Want to know how low is too low for R.A. Dickey? That's right. The rankings tell all.

They may lack the context and exposition you'll find on Fantasy Baseball Today and in columns like this one, but they're quick, accessible and, generally speaking, up-to-date.

Of course, to get any sort of value out of them, you have to trust in the process. At least one reader -- we'll call him George -- does not. He made his feelings clear in a recent e-mail to me:

I generally like your analysis, but I can't believe that you three guys update your rankings regularly, or at all. For example, I see Matt Kemp is the No. 3 outfield for all of you. Kemp is on my team, so that's nice to see on one hand. But his season has been such a disappointment that surely he's due for a downgrade. And, as I said, that's just one example. What's up?

Nice to see we're making a difference.

What's up is subjectivity. It's the driving force behind any set of rankings and a big reason why we each maintain our own. Naturally, you won't agree with anyone's rankings player for player -- to do so would be downright spooky -- but if you want an informed opinion, ours should at least suffice.

Now, when opinions differ enough to create a sense of mistrust, that's obviously a problem, but I have a feeling your consternation over Kemp -- and presumably Josh Hamilton, Billy Butler, Rickie Weeks and Jimmy Rollins -- stems more from a difference in philosophy than anything else. Al, Nando and I, along with many other Fantasy Baseball analysts across cyberspace, subscribe to the idea that a high-end player who gets off to a slow start is still a high-end player.

Most Traded Players (as of 5/14)
Player Name # of trades
1. Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels 678
2. David Price, SP, Rays 537
3. Matt Cain, SP, Giants 490
4. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers 446
5. B.J. Upton, OF, Braves 431
6. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies 420
7. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals 376
8. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals 374
9. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds 371
10. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals 365

Why? We've seen it too many times before. We've poured over enough box scores, played out enough August stretch runs and suffered through enough Jay Bruce roller-coaster rides to recognize that, over the course of 162 games, a player's stats tend to normalize.

"He is what he is," you'll often hear us say. Translation: "Those numbers you're used to seeing from him remain the expectation for him, regardless of what he's doing right now." And that goes for players on both ends of the spectrum.

Obviously, that line of thinking doesn't apply over the entirety of a player's career. Most spend their first few years improving and their last few years declining. But once they reach a certain level of production, they tend to maintain it -- and nothing more than it -- throughout their prime.

Tell that to the guy who drafted Adrian Gonzalez and Tim Lincecum last year, right?

OK, fine. So you found a pair of exceptions. They happen from time to time, and I can't guarantee Kemp won't be one of them this year. But I'll give you a few examples of the countless other players who validated the worry-free approach just last year.

They're harder to remember because you'd never know of their slow starts by their final numbers. But they slumped all right, with many putting themselves in deeper holes than Kemp is in now.

You know everybody's golden boy, Paul Goldschmidt? He appeared destined for a return trip to the minors through his first 31 games last year, batting .218 with a .616 OPS. What about last year's No. 1 shortstop in Head-to-Head leagues, Jose Reyes? Through his first 29 games, he hit a measly .226.

Last year's No. 2 shortstop, Rollins, had it even worse. When he hit .225 with a .275 slugging percentage over his first 45 games, most assumed his tank was empty. Aramis Ramirez was in the same boat, batting .218 with a .656 OPS over his first 38 games. He went on to have arguably the best season of his career.

Albert Pujols, much like Hamilton, struggled in his early days as an Angel, batting .212 with a .573 OPS in his first 42 games last year. We all know how his numbers turned out. Giancarlo Stanton? Yup, everyone was freaking out about him last year, too, when he homered only once in his first 21 games. He ended up leading the majors in slugging percentage.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Perhaps the most encouraging case for Matt Kemp owners, though, is that of Ryan Zimmerman. Yes, Kemp had shoulder surgery in the offseason, but judging from reports both then and now, Zimmerman's shoulder was a bigger impediment at this time last year. In fact, it had him hitting .218 with a .590 OPS on June 23 -- or about halfway through the season. Don't remember it that way? That's because after getting the cortisone shot that day -- his third of the season -- he hit .321 with a .967 OPS the rest of the way, bringing his numbers back to where they always are.

Were any of those resurgences unbelievable or miraculous? For a while there, Zimmerman seemed like a lost cause, but otherwise, not really. They were just the realization of the inevitable. They were exactly what should happen over the course of 162 games.

Given the disparity between their seasons so far, Kemp's final numbers might actually be worse than, say, Justin Upton's, but again, these are rest-of-season rankings. What has already happened shouldn't matter nearly as much to Fantasy owners as what will happen. Judging by his ability and track record, Kemp's chances of producing a .300-plus batting average and 30-plus homers the rest of the way are simply too high for me to sell him short now. And probably higher than Upton's, I might add.

Maybe if the slump continues for another two or three weeks, my perspective will change ever so slightly. I do make some changes at this stage of the season, having already moved Upton and Bryce Harper ahead of Hamilton in the outfield. But they were all in the same range to begin with. With Upton and Harper still young and developing, a hot start for them indicates progress. Plus, perception factors in. I could get more for Upton or Harper than Hamilton on the trade market right now, and my rankings should reflect that.

But they shouldn't reflect streaks, whether good or bad. Streaks happen for every player over the course of the season. The ones that happen earlier don't carry any more weight.

When I make a change to the rankings, it should be cautious and calculated, and it should last. If it's something I'll have to undo two weeks later, after you've already potentially acted on it, then I've done you a disservice. That's how I approach it, anyway. And judging by some of Al's and Nando's rankings, they're even more cautious than I am.

Now, I won't claim our rankings are perfect. They contain 476 names, so the occasional player will slip through the cracks. And I'm guessing the top half at each position gets more attention than the bottom half just because it's easier to form opinions on those guys.

But enough thought and effort go into these rankings that you can trust they're what they claim to be. And if we hold up our end of the bargain, they'll do more for you than a thousand Reality Check columns will.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Robbie Ross earns win Wednesday vs. A's
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:48 am ET) Rangers pitcher Robbie Ross picked up a win Wednesday, striking out one in 1 2/3 scoreless innings in his team's 6-1 victory over the A's.

Ross (3-6) was one of three pitchers to appear in the bottom of the eighth inning Wednesday, and after the Rangers scored six runs on three A's relievers in the top of the ninth, Ross finished off the win with a clean bottom half of the final inning. He owns a 6.39 ERA and 49:29 K:BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings.


J.P. Arencibia slugs 10th home run in win vs. A's
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:46 am ET) Rangers designated hitter J.P. Arencibia went 1 for 4 with a three-run home run in his team's 6-1 victory over the A's Wednesday.

After the Rangers evened the score at 1-1 in the ninth inning, Arencibia put his team up with a big blast over the left field fence. He has a modest four-game hitting streak with two home runs during that stretch. Arencibia has hit .173/.234/.367 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI in 196 at-bats.


Sean Doolittle blows save, takes loss Wednesday vs. Rangers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:46 am ET) Athletics closer Sean Doolittle blew a save opportunity Wednesday and was stuck with the loss in his team's 6-1 defeat against the Rangers.

Doolittle (1-4) was tasked with protecting a 1-0 lead but surrendered a game-tying double before the Rangers broke things open with a three-run home run. The closer finished with five earned runs on three hits and two walks in just one-third of an inning. Doolittle owns a 2.97 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 83:7 K:BB ratio in 57 2/3 innings.


Jeff Samardzija strikes out 10 in gem vs. Rangers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:45 am ET) Athletics pitcher Jeff Samardzija didn't factor into the decision Wednesday despite giving up just four hits in eight scoreless innings while striking out 10 and walking none in his team's 6-1 defeat against the Rangers.

Samardzija matched his season high for strikeouts in the gem, and he's now delivered 15 innings of scoreless baseball over his last two starts. However, the bullpen blew his lead in the ninth inning to keep him at 6-12. Despite his record, he's been excellent this season, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 190:43 K:BB ratio in 205 2/3 innings. Samardzija is slated to face the Angels Monday.


Derek Holland allows one run in no-decision vs. A's
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:45 am ET) Rangers pitcher Derek Holland didn't factor into the decision Wednesday, giving up one earned run on four hits and three walks in 6 1/3 innings while striking out five in his team's 6-1 win over the A's.

Holland turned in his fourth straight strong start and actually saw his ERA rise despite the excellent line. The only run came on a single with two men on in the fifth inning, giving Holland four straight starts with one run or no runs since coming off the disabled list. He owns a 0.99 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 22:3 K:BB ratio in 27 1/3 innings. Hollard is scheduled to face the Astros Monday.


Mariners announce weekend rotation plans
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:33 am ET) The Mariners announced Wednesday that Taijuan Walker will draw the start in Friday's series opener against the Astros in Houston.

Walker hasn't made a start for the Mariners since late July, but he's managed to make three appearances out of the bullpen in September. He owns a 2.96 ERA and 21:15 K:BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings.

The announcement will move Chris Young back to Saturday and Hisashi Iwakuma to Sunday.


Eric Stults chased in fifth inning of loss vs. Phillies
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:03 am ET) Padres pitcher Eric Stults took a loss Wednesday, allowing four earned runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings while striking out two in his team's 5-2 defeat against the Phillies.

Stults (7-17) delivered four scoreless innings before running into trouble in the fifth, when the Phillies opened the inning with four singles to score two runs and then followed a sacrifice with a two-run double, which chased the starter from the game. It's the first time since June 8 Stults has failed to finish five innings. He owns a 4.59 ERA and 101:44 K:BB ratio in 162 2/3 innings. Stults is scheduled to face the Rockies Tuesday.


Cole Hamels strikes out nine in win vs. Padres
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:03 am ET) Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels earned a win Wednesday, allowing one earned run on seven hits and one walk in seven innings while striking out nine in his team's 5-2 victory over the Padres.

Hamels (9-7) gave up just one run for the second straight start, and he's turned in 11 quality starts in 12 tries in the second half, with the only "off" day resulting in a five-inning, three-run win. He owns an excellent 2.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 187:57 K:BB ratio in 189 2/3 innings. Hamels is scheduled to face the Marlins Tuesday.


C.J. Cron swats 11th home run Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:52 am ET) Angels first baseman C.J. Cron went 2 for 3 with a three-run home run in his team's 5-0 win over the Mariners Wednesday.

Cron's home run came at an opportune time, as the Mariners turned to the bullpen in the seventh inning only for the Angels first baseman to immediately smack a three-run blast to put the lead out of reach. He has hit .273/.301/.482 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 220 at-bats.


C.J. Wilson tosses seven one-hit innings in win Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:48 am ET) Angels pitcher C.J. Wilson earned a win Wednesday, allowing just one hit and three walks in seven scoreless innings while striking out seven in his team's 5-0 victory over the Mariners.

Wilson (13-9) retired the first 11 batters he faced Wednesday before issuing a walk, and his no-hitter came to an end with two outs in the fifth. It's his first time since May 17 getting through a start without giving up a run. Wilson owns a 4.42 ERA and 149:78 K:BB ratio in 169 innings. He's slated to face the A's Monday.


 
 
 
Rankings