Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Bullpen Report: Time to hold on a second

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Holds have added a nice little twist to the game of Fantasy Baseball.

Every day here, we get virtual waterfall of "Should I do this trade?" e-mails, Tweets, and phone calls. When one doesn't make a lot of sense because a seemingly-random middle reliever is included, there's always a follow-up pointing out that "holds are counted in this league."

Before holds leagues came along, middle relievers had limited value -- they were pretty much left to NL- and AL-only Roto leagues to keep WHIP and ERA low while giving an owner a decent amount of strikeouts. A Craig Stammen-type wouldn't be in line for saves, but he could help balance out a bad start from Edinson Volquez.

Most Added Relievers (as of 5/19)
Player Name % change
1. Jerome Williams, RP, Angels 16
2. Josh Lindblom, RP, Rangers 12
3. Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers 11
4. Heath Bell, RP, D-Backs 8
5. David Phelps, RP, Yankees 8
6. Ernesto Frieri, RP, Angels 6
7. Andrew Bailey, RP, Red Sox 4
8. Joel Peralta, RP, Rays 4
9. Tommy Hunter, RP, Orioles 4
10. Kevin Gregg, RP, Cubs 3

Lately, though, it seems like the hold is gaining steam. It's coming up in a lot more questions and there's still some uncharted territory in terms of how to best approach it, strategically. And for Fantasy players not in holds leagues, taking a look at the leaders still holds some value.

Last season, Jason Grilli finished with the fourth-most holds and Edward Mujica had the seventh-most. They have 27 saves between them this season. In 2011, Tyler Clippard led the majors in holds (he saved 32 games the following season), while Jose Veras and Grant Balfour finished in the top 10. It's not an exact science -- hold leaderboards are scattered with pitchers (Matt Thornton, Sean Burnett, Eric O'Flaherty) who may only see a handful of saves over their entire career. But it does give these low-ERA/WHIP, high-K pitchers -- who would otherwise go unnoticed and unappreciated by the general Fantasy-playing community -- some value.

There's no perfect way to present a holds column, so I'm going to chop it up into a bunch of fun little sections and let you decide what works and what doesn't. I give you ...

2013 MLB Holds Leaders

1. Mark Melancon, Pirates (14 holds)
2. Eric O'Flaherty, Braves (12)
3. Jesse Crain, White Sox (11)
4. Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals (11)
5. Joel Peralta, Rays (10)
5. Matt Thornton, White Sox (10)
7. Luke Gregerson, Padres (9)
8. David Robertson, Yankees (9)
9. Junichi Tazawa, Red Sox (9)
10. Jared Burton, Twins (8)

The top 20 in holds have averaged 8.95 so far this season, while the top 20 in saves have averaged 10.5. So for a Fantasy owner in a holds league to just dismiss closers as having the same value as holders (I'm calling them that for this column ... not sure if they actually have a term yet) would be a bit of an aggressive move. The flip side to that, however, is that holds are more readily available the deeper you go. So it's a question of wanting to consolidate your reliever counting stats (holds/saves) in one spot (using a closer) or getting it from two sources from a cheaper level (using a holder).

Saves trump holds in the upper echelons, but ...

The single-season record in holds is 40, set by Luke Gregerson in 2010. He is the only pitcher in the history of the game to register 40 holds in a season. Last year, five pitchers had 40 or more saves. In 2010, the year Gregerson set the standard, seven pitchers hit the 40-saves mark. But while the 50th-best holder had four saves last season, the 50th-best closer had 16. The reason for this? Multiple pitchers on the same team can get holds in one game, but only one pitcher can get a save.

Take Jose Veras, for instance. The Astros closer has just five saves this year, with a 3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts in 16 innings. He is unimpressive in a saves-only league (for reference, newly-minted closer Heath Bell already has six saves). But if you want to find Veras' holds doppelganger, it would probably be someone like the Twins' Josh Roenicke, with his five holds, 3.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings (it's not perfect, but it's close). A Veras-for-Roenicke trade seems absurd, but if you're in a 6x6 league that counts holds and saves, there's a case to be made that Roenicke's value is close to Veras'. Smart holds league owners can make this work in their favor.

So how can I use this to my advantage?

While saves are top-heavy, holds are middle-heavy. Say you're in a league that counts both holds and saves, and has a limited amount (we'll say three, for this exercise) of RP slots. Your bullpen may look like this:

Joe Nathan (12 saves)
Steve Cishek (5 saves)
Aaron Crow (7 holds)

But a more efficient way to run it might be to fill up all three slots with cheaper high-K, low-ratio relievers:

David Robertson (9 holds)
Aaron Crow (7 holds)
Robbie Ross (4 holds)

You lose some of the counting stats, but your ERA and WHIP would be lower, while strikeouts are edged out by one. But the draft spots you saved by passing on Nathan and Cishek could have been used to fill spots in another position -- one which isn't complicated by a counting stat (holds) that nearly-equalizes most of a specialist's (closer's) value.

In H2H category formats -- the most popular I've played with holds involved -- you lose the saves category in the above scenario, but dominate in holds, and you end up rostering pitchers who can contribute more in wins while keeping the WHIP and ERA down. Plus, if you happen to draft a holds dud, he's easily replaceable on the wire, thanks to that middle ground. Replacing a saves dud isn't nearly as simple.

In-season, the above owner can trade Nathan for someone like B.J. Upton, strengthen the outfield (eventually), and fill Nathan's spot with a top-30 holds contributor, who can keep pace with Ks, ERA, and WHIP, and only really see a downgrade in saves -- which is offset by the gain in holds.

Holds are on the rise

If you total the saves from the top five pitchers in the category each year over the last 10 seasons, there isn't much fluctuation. In 2003, the top five totaled 223 saves; in 2012, the group had 225. The numbers ranged from a low of 212 in 2006 to 241 in 2004. But if you look at the top five holds leaders, the numbers initially jump around with no pattern, then begin to rise as we near the 2013 season:

2003: 146 holds
2004: 162
2005: 161
2006: 149
2007: 167
2008: 142
2009: 149
2010: 162
2011: 175
2012: 171

Not only have holds risen among the upper echelon, the holders look to be closing the gap: so far this season, the top five in holds have totaled 58, while the top five in saves have totaled 72 -- a ratio of .80, which is an all-time high. That number has risen from .62 in 2008 and has gone up every year since.

What does it mean? That in holds leagues, getting a top-five holder is becoming almost as useful as getting a top-five closer. And with closers being drafted earlier and bid on for more money, there may be a market inefficiency in those H2H category formats. This can also be used in trades. A Joe Nathan for Mark Melancon swap sounds a little goofy even in a holds league, but the drop-off, in reality, isn't that stark. And Melancon could end up being a toss-in as part of a larger deal, even in that format.

Holds are up. Fine. But what about those other stats?

The top 50 closers have compiled a 2.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The top 50 holders have compiled a 2.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The closers have 43 total wins, while the holders have 48. The closers have a K/9 of 9.6, while the holders have a K/9 of 8.7. But while the closers have managed 299 saves this year, the holders have put up 347 holds.

What this means is that an owner in a holds league can fill his RP slots with holders, ditch saves, and then focus on getting better starters, or a bigger bat, in the spots where a closer would normally be. In a league with 16 teams and three relief spots in each, you're still operating within the top 50, and with 20 or so of those spots taken by closers, someone using the holds strategy could be picking from the top 30 of holders.

My brain is mush, just give me names

The holds leaders, by team:

Orioles: Brian Matusz, six holds
Red Sox: Junichi Tazawa, 9
Yankees: David Robertson, 9
Rays: Joel Peralta, 10
Blue Jays: Aaron Loup, 4
Royals: Aaron Crow, 7
Tigers: Joaquin Benoit, 5
White Sox: Jesse Crain, 11 (note: Matt Thornton has 10)
Twins: Jared Burton, 8
Indians: Vinnie Pestano, 4
A's: Sean Doolittle, 7
Rangers: Tanner Scheppers, 8
Mariners: Carter Capps, 4
Astros: Hector Ambriz, 6
Angels: Scott Downs, 8
Braves: Eric O'Flaherty, 12
Nationals: Tyler Clippard, 6
Mets: Scott Atchison, 4
Phillies: Antonio Bastardo, 6
Marlins: Mike Dunn, 6
Reds: Jonathan Broxton, 5
Cardinals: Trevor Rosenthal, 11
Cubs: James Russell, 7
Pirates: Mark Melancon, 14
Brewers:John Axford, 6 (note: weird, right?)
Giants: Jeremy Affeldt, 6
Diamondbacks: David Hernandez, 8
Dodgers: Kenley Jansen, 8
Rockies: Matt Belisle, 7
Padres: Dale Thayer, 7

How about a quick summary?

1. Holds leagues are on the rise
2. The gap between holds leaders and saves leaders is narrowing
3. Now is the time to deal your top closers for help elsewhere, because you can pick up holds on the wire.
4. Market inefficiency: because holders are considered so disposable, other owners may not value the good ones as much. But the good ones are putting up numbers similar to the top closers. Take advantage of that perception.
4. "Holders" just doesn't have enough pop to stick as a widely-used term.
5. Take a look at the hold leaders. Chances are at least one of them will be closing games next season (my bets -- Robertson and/or Burton).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Nando Di Fino at @NandoCBS . You can also send our staff an e-mail at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Want an edge in your draft? Download the Fantasy Draft Kit App.

  •  
 
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Eric Surkamp optioned to Triple-A Omaha
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:19 am ET) The White Sox have optioned reliever Eric Surkamp down to Triple-A Charlotte following Saturday's doubleheader against Detroit. Surkamp was called up prior to the game but did not make an appearance. However, he could be back up when rosters expand on Sept. 1.

Jed Lowrie starts rehab stint Saturday
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:12 am ET) Athletics shortstop Jed Lowrie began a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Saturday. He singled in the fifth inning and played the field for seven innings. He finished 1 for 4 with a run scored. Lowrie could be back as early as Monday against Seattle.

Eric Hosmer collects two hits in first rehab game
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:11 am ET) Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer began a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Saturday. Hosmer collected a pair of hits, finishing 2 for 6 with two RBI while playing first base. He has been sidelined since July 31 with a hand issue. 

Tigers considering resting Miguel Cabrera for a stretch of games
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:01 am ET) Tigers manager Brad Ausmus told reporters that he is considering sitting first baseman Miguel Cabrera for a stretch of game to rest his sore ankle, MLB.com reports.

"I've talked to him about that," Ausmus said. "We talked about that in Detroit a couple days ago, so it's a possibility. But this thing comes and goes. Prior to today, the last couple days, he said it felt really good. And then today it flared up again. Although we discussed it, I don't know if four or five days would do anything, because sometimes he comes in from sleeping overnight and feels good."

Cabrera re-aggravated his ankle while trying to leg out a hit in the fourth inning of Game 2 of a doubleheader against the White Sox. His status remains uncertain for Sunday because the team wants to see how he feels in the morning.

Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo to share closer duties moving forward
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:56 am ET) Giants manager Bruce Bochy told reporters that relievers Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo will be sharing the closer duties for now, the Bay Area News Group reports.

Casilla coughed up a run despite getting the save Saturday night. He owns a 1.82 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 49 1/3 innings of relief. Romo struck out the only batter he faced before Casilla entered the game Saturday. He owns a 3.96 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 50 innings of work.

Roenis Elias can't solve the Nationals
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:55 am ET) Mariners pitcher Roenis Elias was pegged with the loss Saturday night at home against the Nationals, dropping to 9-12 on the year. The left-hander permitted three runs -- two earned -- on six hits and two walks while striking out five over six innings of a 3-1 defeat.

Over his last four starts covering 20 2/3 innings, Elias has allowed six earned runs. He owns a 3.97 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 26 starts (149 2/3 innings). His next start will come Thursday at Texas.

Rafael Soriano picks up 30th save vs. Mariners
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:51 am ET) Nationals closer Rafael Soriano struck out one and permitted two hits in a scoreless ninth inning for the save Saturday night against the Mariners in Seattle. He has converted 30 of 35 save chances, with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 53 2/3 innings of relief.

Stephen Strasburg sets team's single-season strikeout record vs. M's
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:48 am ET) Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg dominated the Mariners in Seattle on Saturday, scattering one run on six hits over 7 2/3 innings of work to improve to 11-10 on the year. He struck out eight and did not issue a walk. Of his 95 pitches, 69 were strikes.

Strasburg also broke the team's single-season record of 207 strikeouts set by Gio Gonzalez two years ago. He owns a 3.49 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 210:40 K:BB ratio in 183 innings. He will make his next start Friday at home against Philadelphia.

Ian Kennedy goes seven strong in no-decision
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:43 am ET) Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy turned in a dominant outing but was unable to factor into the decision Saturday night at home against the Dodgers. The right-hander permitted one run on four hits and three walks while striking out eight over seven innings of work.

Over his last two starts covering 12 2/3 innings, Kennedy has allowed four earned runs. He owns a 3.65 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 28 starts (170 innings). His next start will come Thursday at home against Arizona.

Zack Greinke gets back on track in no-decision
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:40 am ET) Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke bounced back with a dominant outing but was unable to factor into the decision Saturday against the Padres. The right-hander permitted one earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out eight over eight innings of a 2-1 defeat.

Over his last three starts covering 20 innings, Greinke has allowed only four earned runs. He owns a 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 27 starts (172 1/3 innings). His next start will come Friday at home against Arizona.

 
 
 
Rankings