Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Reality Check: Being proactive about Profar

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

It's the epitome of a no-brainer move. When the consensus No. 1 overall prospect entering the season is awarded a starting job in the majors, you add him in Fantasy.

And yet owners in 25 percent of leagues have said, "Why bother?"

Why bother when the player he's replacing has as much job security as any second baseman in the game?

Why bother when that player is expected to spend only a couple weeks on the DL with an intercostal strain?

Why bother if Jurickson Profar is sure to return to the minors before he even has a chance to get comfortable?

Why? Because you just never know.

You may think you know. You may even pretend to know, like we "experts" are required to do. He's good. He's bad. I like him. I don't like him. In the black-and-white world of Fantasy prognostication, there is no room for "I don't know."

But you know what? I don't know. And frankly, neither do you.

For all you know, one of Ian Kinsler's injury-prone teammates -- be it Lance Berkman, Nelson Cruz or Adrian Beltre -- will go down in the meantime, granting Profar an extended stay in the majors.

For all you know, Profar will put up Jean Segura numbers right away, forcing the Rangers to find creative ways to keep him around, such as moving Mitch Moreland back to the outfield.

For all you know, Kinsler's intercostal strain -- an injury without a definite timetable -- will continue to nag the veteran second baseman beyond the initial two weeks, allowing even more time for one of those first two scenarios to come true.

For all you know, Profar will perform like a top-five second baseman the rest of the way.

To some people, prognostication is the appeal of Fantasy Baseball. They use it as a vehicle to show what they know, proving to friends and acquaintances that they should be in a front office somewhere instead of unfairly confined to something as bourgeois as accounting or pizza delivery.

At its core, though, Fantasy Baseball is a game of managing variables -- some more predictable than others. The most successful participants separate what they know from what they don't and work within the constructs of each.

So then, you can only benefit from acknowledging your limitations, from recognizing that you can't predict the future and admitting that your guesses, well-reasoned as they may be, are often wrong.

If you came across a variable you didn't know in any other game, would you just guess and hope for the best?

Of course not. You'd cover your dang butt.

In Monopoly, if rolling a three would land you on Boardwalk with three houses, putting you at risk of bankruptcy, would you choose then to build houses on your own properties? Three is an unlikely roll, statistically speaking, but because it's within the realm of possibility, you probably wouldn't.

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Never made it that far in Monopoly? Thought those little green houses were only meant to deter you from walking around the house barefoot a full two weeks after playing?

Maybe poker is more your speed, then. Ever bet before the river in Texas hold 'em? Most of the time, you have to. You don't know what that last card will be, but weighing the probability of what it could be vs. the risk of what you could lose vs. the reward of what you could gain, you act.

The same is true in Fantasy Baseball. Your baseball knowledge may give you some insight into what the ultimate outcome will be, but in the end, it's still a roll of the dice.

Profar is just the latest and most promising in a class of speculative pickups. The ultimate acknowledgement of "you just never know," a speculative pickup often proves to be a waste of a roster spot, but in those rare cases it isn't, the payoff more than makes up for the cost.

Now that he's back in the minors, Tony Cingrani belongs to that class. He doesn't have a clear path to the majors, but either a Mike Leake implosion or an injury to another member of the Reds starting rotation is plausible enough to make him worth rostering in most leagues, especially since we already know he's capable of succeeding at the major-league level.

Of course, not every speculative pickup is worth it to everyone. To me, Wil Myers, who's clearly next in line for a team that can already fit him into the lineup, is much more deserving of a roster spot than Yasiel Puig, whose arrival hinges on both an injury to Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier and the Dodgers' willingness to promote him directly from Double-A. Still, both stashes have some merit.

And really, every stash deserves that level of scrutiny. While a bench serves many purposes in Fantasy, such as providing you with a reserve pool for playing matchups or safeguarding against injuries, its primary function is to help you protect the players you don't want anyone else to have.

Typically, the players most worth protecting are the ones who could make the biggest impact for your Fantasy team. Sometimes they already have regular jobs in the majors, but sometimes they don't. If you're rostering Zack Cozart when the highly comparable Stephen Drew is available on waivers, what exactly are you protecting?

Matt Adams. Drew Smyly. Christian Yelich. Kenley Jansen. Yasmani Grandal. Zack Wheeler. You can justify rostering any of them if the next best use of that roster spot is a replacement-level player.

But right now, Profar is the priority. He's already here, and he clearly has the talent to succeed. Though hardly a finished product at age 20, he has all the tools of a Fantasy standout, right down to the exceptional plate discipline.

And right now, people like me are writing hundreds upon hundreds of words about him all over the Internet, so if you don't act, one of your competitors will. And if the unlikely comes to pass and Profar sticks around long enough to revolutionize the second base position in Fantasy, you'll wonder why you thought Dan Haren, Dan Straily, Dan Uggla or Danny Espinosa was so worth protecting.

With each speculative pickup, you have to weigh the cost, and maybe on the trade market, an established contributor like Matt Carpenter or Josh Rutledge would cause me to back off Profar.

But as a waiver claim, it's no contest. The cost of the worst player on my roster is well within my budget.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Rays' Tim Beckham drives in winning run Saturday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:58 am ET) Rays infielder Tim Beckham continues to show his potential in the big leagues. Beckham ripped a two-run double in the eighth inning off Miguel Castro to break a 2-2 tie. 

"I was just hoping I had a chance to get another at-bat, man," Beckham said to MLB.com. "I struck out twice tonight looking. I wasn't too happy about that. That's not what I like to do. Nobody likes to do it. But I definitely don't like to strike out looking. Just wanted to get another AB, and another opportunity to hit the ball hard. Hopefully some runners on base and get some RBIs."

Beckham was given the green light to swing on a 3-0 count and delivered.

"I didn't get it clean off the barrel, but I put a good swing on it," Beckham said. "He was throwing the ball pretty hard. Thought I had enough to get it out of here."

Beckham is hitting .275 with five RBI in 40 at-bats this season.


Dodgers' Andre Ethier smacks second home run of 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:54 am ET) Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier went 3 for 4 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday.

Ethier, starting for the injured Yasiel Puig, found success early and often, slugging a home run in the first inning off of Ian Kennedy to drive in Jimmy Rollins, his second of the season. Ethier then doubled in the fifth inning and singled to center in the eighth to drive in another run.

Ethier is now hitting .353 with six RBI in 34 at-bats this season.


Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe connects for first home run
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:51 am ET) Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe went 1 for 5 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday. Uribe did his damage in the fifth inning when he smashed a 1-1 pitch from Ian Kennedy over the right field wall for a two-run home run, his first of the season.

Uribe is now hitting .244 with three RBI in 45 at-bats this season.


Dodgers' Howie Kendrick rips third homer of the year
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:48 am ET) Dodgers second baseman Howie Kendrick went 1 for 5 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday.

Kendrick did his only damage in the fifth inning when he ripped a 2-2 pitch from Ian Kennedy over the center field wall for a two-run home run, his third of the season. Kendrick is now hitting .308 with 12 RBI in 65 at-bats this season.


Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez continues to roll at the plate
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:45 am ET) Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez went 2 for 5 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday.

Gonzalez got going early when he smacked a double to right field in the first inning and was eventually driven home on a Carl Crawford double. He kept rolling in the second when he took an Ian Kennedy pitch over the right field wall for a three-run blast, his seventh of the season.

Gonzalez is hitting a blistering .403 on the season with 18 RBI in 67 at-bats this season.


Padres right fielder Wil Myers cracks third home run of the year
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:42 am ET) Padres right fielder Wil Myers went 1 for 5 at the plate in San Diego's 11-8 loss to the Dodgers Saturday. Myers connected for his third home run of the season to lead off the first inning Saturday when he smacked a 1-1 pitch from Brandon McCarthy over the center field wall.

Myers is now hitting .272 with 12 RBI in 81 at-bats this season.


Padres' Justin Upton smacks two home runs in losing effort
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:40 am ET) Padres left fielder Justin Upton went 2 for 3 at the plate in San Diego's 11-8 loss to the Dodgers Saturday. Upton got things going early with a two-run shot off of Brandon McCarthy in the first over the right field wall.

Upton did it again in the sixth, taking McCarthy to center field on an 0-2 pitch for a three-run shot, his fifth of the season. Upton continues to swing a hot bat, raising his average to .303 with 13 RBI on the season, five on Saturday, in 66 at-bats on the year.


Mets shortstop Juan Lagares post 4 for 4 day in win Saturday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:32 am ET) Mets shortstop Juan Lagares went an impressive 4 for 4 at the plate in New York's 8-2 win over the Yankees Saturday. Lagares, who also scored three times, boosted his average to .296 on the year and credits his recent success to staying patient at the plate, according to MLB.com.

"I just try to do too much sometimes," Lagares said. "When I swing at strikes, I get good results. That's it. It's a great feeling. It's one of those days when you feel good out there and make good swings."

Manager Terry Collins has also been impressed with Lagares' recent success and wants to move him up in the order.

"I don't necessarily think Juan is an RBI guy," Collins said. "I think when he starts to have good at-bats, he's a top-of-the-order guy, which we hope to get him back in that spot."


Giants catcher Andrew Susac connects for first home run of the year
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:21 am ET) Giants catcher Andrew Susac went 2 for 5 at the plate in San Francisco's 5-4 win over the Rockies Saturday in 11 innings. Susac found success in the fourth inning when he ripped a 1-1 pitch from Jorge De La Rosa over the left field wall for a solo shot, his first of the year. 

Susac, who also added a double, boosted his average to .385 with one RBI in 13 at-bats this season.


Giants right fielder Justin Maxwell adds another home run Saturday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:16 am ET) Giants right fielder Justin Maxwell went 1 for 6 at the plate in San Francisco's 5-4 win over the Rockies Saturday in 11 innings. 

Maxwell ripped a 2-2 pitch from Scott Oberg over the right field wall to drive home Buster Posey, his third home run of the year. Maxwell, who also struck out twice, is hitting .308 with nine RBI in 39 at-bats this season.


 
 
 
Rankings