Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

By the Numbers: Sticks worth sticking with

  •  

When a player drafted to be a mainstay of your Fantasy lineup falters in April, it can be easy to find the patience to stick with him, recognizing that even the best hitters can sometimes be bad for an entire month.

A year ago, if you lost patience with Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton or Jimmy Rollins after poor Aprils, you missed out on some Fantasy goodness the rest of the year. Already this season, Mike Trout, Jason Kipnis and Allen Craig have turned the corner after a disappointing first month.

Plenty of other players are making their owners exceedingly nervous, as their production continues to fall short of expectations. Few owners are benching -- much less dropping -- superstars like Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton, but neither is performing they way we expected them to. Is there anything a Kemp or Hamilton owner can do other than to wait it out, and are there signs that patience will be rewarded?

Then there are some even tougher decisions looming in regard to players like B.J. Upton and Miguel Montero. Neither was typically an early-round pick, but both were expected to be solid contributors in standard mixed leagues. Certainly few owners would have anticipated thinking about cutting either loose by Memorial Day, yet both have been getting dumped at a steady rate over the last few weeks. Should their owners follow the trend and look for replacements, or is it worth hanging on to them or picking them up?

It's time to dig into the numbers for Kemp, Hamilton, Upton, Montero and several other hitters who remain frustrating to own, even as the first days of summer creep closer. For at least some players, it may finally be time to move on, but for others, there are still reasons to be hopeful for a rebound. For each of the hitters featured here, I'll look at their rest-of-season prospects, and I've also listed them in order of their dropability, from least to most expendable. And, yes, there have been some pitchers who have been equally exasperating, but they'll get a column devoted just to them in the weeks ahead.

Note: Stats are for all games played through Monday, May 27.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels: Though he still ranks outside the top 25 Fantasy outfielders for the last 28 days, the outlook for Hamilton is much rosier than that for Kemp. He has improved his plate discipline and has been hitting for plenty of power, clubbing six homers and five doubles in May. Hamilton has hit just .244 with nine RBI this month, though he should be able to hit higher than .267 on balls in play going forward. The power has already returned for Hamilton, and it's only a matter of time before the batting average and run production follow.

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: Kemp has been lacking power all season long, and of late, he has struggled just to make contact. In particular, Kemp has had trouble connecting with pitches outside the strike zone, as according to FanGraphs.com, only Chris Carter and Ryan Howard have whiffed more frequently on those offerings. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told the Los Angeles Times that he thinks Kemp is still being affected by offseason shoulder surgery, but even in April, Kemp was hitting balls deeper and making more frequent contact than he has been lately. There have been no reports of a new injury, and given that Kemp's problems have gotten worse, it would seem that at least part of his issues may be mechanical. If his shoulder is indeed part of the problem, owners may have to resign themselves to not getting full value from Kemp, but if he can start making contact like he did in April, he should still be worth starting for the rest of the season.

Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks: Plate discipline has not been a problem for Montero, and he is actually making contact a little more frequently than he did last season. It's just that Montero has turned nearly half of his hit balls into ground balls, and worse yet, he's batting .109 on grounders. He should have little trouble turning his batting average around, and while his ground ball rate is inflated, it's not too far from his recent norms. Fantasy owners can take comfort in knowing that Montero is striking out and popping out less than he did last year, and he is one of the best bets on this list for a rebound.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates: Alvarez is actually on pace to exceed last year's 30 home runs and post back-to-back 80-plus RBI seasons. He still strikes out far too much and is not a tremendous hitter on balls in play, but he deserves better than his .195 batting average and two doubles. As Alvarez finds the gaps more often, he'll get more singles and doubles, but he hasn't provided any hints of advancing beyond the level he achieved in 2012. He was the 12th most-productive third baseman in both Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats a year ago, and even though the position has deepened since then, he will be good enough to keep around in standard mixed leagues.

Victor Martinez, DH, Tigers: Don't look now, but after a miserable first month-and-a-half, Martinez is starting to gain a little momentum. He's still hitting for very little power, but over his last 10 games, he is 12 for 40 (.300) with five RBI. It's not as if Martinez hasn't been hitting the ball deep, and even if he hasn't been hitting for home run distance, he's been unlucky to go 3 for 61 (.049) on flyballs in play. Perhaps with time, we will see more homers from Martinez, but at the very least, he should produce a much higher batting average and doubles total from here on out.

B.J. Upton, OF, Braves: Like Kemp, Upton is having major problems with making contact, but his are mainly with pitches within the strike zone. His difficulties have become even more acute in May, as he has struck out in 44 percent of his at-bats, has two extra-base hits and no stolen bases for the month. Braves hitting coach Greg Walker revealed to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Upton has had mechanical issues that have led to him swinging late on pitches. He's not had problems identifying strikes, so if Upton can iron out the timing of his swing, he should be back to his old self. That still means that owners can't count on him for a high batting average or on-base percentage, but he'll be much better than he's been and provide home runs and stolen bases.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: When Weeks bounced back from a poor first half last season, he relied on a reduced strikeout rate to improve his Fantasy fortunes. He's actually cut back on his Ks in May, but his results have actually worsened. Weeks has only two extra-base hits this month, and a .213 BABIP has sunk an already-low overall batting average. Even with a higher average, Weeks won't help you much without power, and he won't offer much if he continues to hit flyballs on only 25 percent of his hit balls. Weeks was streaky with home run power last season, so it feels early to give up on him at this point. However, if he doesn't at least get some traction on his flyball rate by a month from now, it will be safe to drop Weeks at that point.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals: So far in his career, Moustakas has been somewhat reminiscent of Aaron Hill, or at least the 2010-11 version of him. In other words, Moustakas has enticing home run power, but despite a decent strikeout rate, he's a drag on your team's batting average due to frequent popups. He is still hitting for power when he pulls the ball, but Moustakas, who has not shown great power up the middle or to the opposite field, is showing even less this year. Though he should at least be able to break the Mendoza line, Moustakas seems to be stuck in a developmental rut. With Nolan Arenado and David Freese available as free agents in many leagues, it may be time to part ways with Moustakas.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves: Simmons wasn't drafted in many leagues until the later rounds and he's missing the cut among the top 15 Fantasy shortstops to date, yet owners in 75 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com are allowing him to hang on to a roster spot. He's hitting with contact and for moderate power, just like he did in the minors, but Simmons has already popped out 20 times on his way to a .239 batting average. Much of Simmons' allure has to do with his speed, but he has only one stolen base and seven infield hits -- three fewer infield hits than last year, even though he already has more at-bats this season. His skipper, Fredi Gonzalez, has never been that aggressive with pursuing steals, and the Braves are tied for the third-fewest steals in the majors. Simmons should be able to raise his batting average somewhat, but he could fall far short of 10 stolen bases. If he's not helping with steals, Simmons is highly replaceable, so if you need a roster spot, he's worth a drop.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals: After knocking out 19 homers in his rookie season, Hosmer has shown precious little power. With a 22 percent flyball rate, he ranks not far behind Michael Young and Norichika Aoki -- not exactly the company you want to keep if you aspire to be a power hitter. Hosmer is still young enough that he can reclaim the power skills he showed as a rookie and also during a brief stint in Double-A, but he's far enough away from realizing that power that he can be dropped in standard mixed leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Mariners' Fernando Rodney allows homer, earns save Monday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:27 am ET) Mariners closer Fernando Rodney gave up a home run in the ninth inning Monday but was able to finish off his team's 3-2 win over the Angels for his eighth save.

Rodney retired the first batter he faced in the ninth inning but then served up a homer to center field to bring the Angels within one. After another out, the closer put a man on base with a walk, but catcher Mike Zunino was able to throw out a pinch-runner on a steal attempt to finish the game.

Rodney owns a 5.56 ERA and 11:7 K:BB ratio in 11 1/3 innings.


Athletics' Billy Butler snaps hitless skid Monday vs. Twins
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:23 am ET) Athletics designated hitter Billy Butler ended an 0-for-20 slump by hitting a single in the first inning Monday but couldn't find another hit across his final four at-bats in his team's 8-7 loss to the Twins.

"I got one, but I had other pitches to hit," Butler said after the game, per the Bay Area News Group. "It’s just not working out for me right now, you know? I got pitches from (Twins’ starter Phil) Hughes after that, pitches to hit from other guys, too."

Butler was unable to find success late against closer Glen Perkins, popping up with a man on base and his team down two.

"I got a pitch from Perkins," Butler said. "I was just swinging, and I’m not getting the results for reasons I can’t see right now."

Butler, who sported a .377 batting average and 1.023 OPS on April 22, is hitting .257/.318/.396 with three home runs and 12 RBI in 101 at-bats due to his recent struggles.


Angels' David Freese collects fifth home run Monday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:18 am ET) Angels third baseman David Freese went 1 for 3 with a walk and a solo home run in his team's 3-2 loss to the Mariners Monday.

Freese delivered the fifth solo homer of the game in the bottom of the ninth inning to close the gap to one run, but the Angels were unable to complete the comeback, with a pinch-runner getting caught stealing for the final out of the game. The third baseman has hit .220/.262/.420 with five home runs and 19 RBI in 100 at-bats.


Angels' Matt Joyce knocks first home run Monday vs. Mariners
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:15 am ET) Angels left fielder Matt Joyce went 1 for 3 with a walk and a solo home run in his team's 3-2 loss to the Mariners Monday.

Joyce answered a pair of solo home runs in the top of the seventh with one of his own in the bottom half of the inning. He was then pulled for a pinch-runner after drawing a two-out walk in the bottom of the ninth inning with his team down one run, but the runner was caught stealing to end the game.

Joyce has hit .148/.195/.222 with one home run and seven RBI in 81 at-bats.


Mariners' Seth Smith hits second home run Monday vs. Angels
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:11 am ET) Mariners designated hitter Seth Smith went 1 for 4 with a solo home run in his team's 3-2 win over the Angels Monday.

Smith pushed his team's lead to 3-1 with his eighth-inning home run, and the insurance run would prove vital, as the Angels slugged a solo homer of their own in the bottom of the ninth. Smith has hit .274/.329/.516 with two home runs and seven RBI in 62 at-bats.


Mariners' Logan Morrison slugs fourth home run Monday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:09 am ET) Mariners first baseman Logan Morrison went 1 foe 3 with a walk and a solo home run in his team's 3-2 win over the Angels Monday.

Morrison was the only Seattle player to reach more than once on a day in which his team managed just four hits and one walk but scored three runs, all on solo homers. His home run was his third in his last four games and extended his hitting streak to six games.

Morrison has hit just .222/.271/.389 with four home runs and seven RBI in 90 at-bats, but he sported a .149 batting average less than a week ago before his recent offensive success.


Giants OF Angel Pagan gets two hits in victory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(1:05 am ET) Giants outfielder Angel Pagan went 2 for 4 from the plate during Monday night's 2-0 win against the Padres. 

Pagan hit an RBI single in the third inning, which scored Nori Aoki. He also hit a single in the first inning. Pagan now has a slash line of .350/.373/.447. 


Mariners' Nelson Cruz keeps slugging, nabs 14th homer Monday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:04 am ET) Mariners right fielder Nelson Cruz went 1 for 4 with a solo home run in his team's 3-2 win over the Angels Monday.

The Mariners were only able to collect four home runs Monday night; incredibly, three were solo homers, with the first coming from Cruz, the major-league home-run leader. He broke a scoreless tie with his seventh-inning shot over the left field wall. It was his fifth home run in the last six games.

Cruz has hit .340/.382/.796 with 14 home runs and 26 RBI in 103 at-bats. He'll look to keep rolling as the series against the Angels continues Tuesday.


Giants' Santiago Casilla earns save against Padres
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(1:02 am ET) Giants closer Santiago Casilla earned his eighth save of the season in Monday night's 2-0 win over the Padres. 

Casilla pitched the ninth inning, struck out one batter and held the Padres without a hit. He now has an ERA of 2.13. 


Red Sox's Allen Craig 'ready' in case Hanley Ramirez misses time
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1:01 am ET) Red Sox outfielder Allen Craig could be facing an increase in playing time after Hanley Ramirez suffered a shoulder injury while crashing into an outfield wall Monday. Craig said he'll "be ready" for the challenge if needed, the Boston Herald reports.

"I enjoy playing the game as much as possible," Craig said Monday night. "Like I said before, you never want to get an opportunity because of someone’s injury, but I don’t want to jump the gun on anything. I hope Hanley’s OK. If my name’s called, I’ll be ready."

Craig replaced Ramirez in Monday's game and went 1 for 4 in his team's 5-1 loss to the Rays. He has hit .146/.222/.220 with one home run and two RBI in 41 at-bats.


 
 
 
Rankings