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Reality Check: Stretch run storylines

Senior Fantasy Writer
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So you think you have this season figured out? You don't know the half of it.

Actually, you do. You know exactly the half of it because it's halfway over.

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But the other half, I wonder about that one. I'm guessing you are, too. Storylines have yet to play out, and until they do, questions will go unanswered.

Here I give you what I consider to be the 10 biggest heading into the second half and, better yet, my approach to them. I don't know the answers, obviously, but I can deduce.

And isn't that the only way to play Fantasy?

10. How many Brewers will be earning saves in September?

The Brewers began the year with John Axford as their closer. He bombed. They then turned to Jim Henderson. He thrived but couldn't stay healthy. Thus, the role has belonged to Francisco Rodriguez for the last six weeks or so, during which he has compiled a 1.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 22 appearances. Of course, Axford has a 1.85 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 39 appearances since forfeiting the role to Henderson, and Henderson, now off the DL, has a 1.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 33 appearances this season. Judging by those numbers, the Brewers have not just one closer, but three. Meanwhile, the Tigers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all have unsettled closer situations. With the trade deadline approaching, Rodriguez is obviously the Brewers reliever to own in Fantasy, but Axford and Henderson should still be on your radar.

9. Are we finally seeing the real Eric Hosmer?

Former Royals hitting coach Jack Maloof, who the team fired on May 29, subscribed to the theory that Kauffman Stadium is no place for home run hitters. And so he did his best to ruin the Royals' crop of up-and-coming sluggers, transforming them into spray hitters who didn't have to worry about flying out to the warning track. So I guess, then, Hosmer was his star pupil. Nobody could understand why his pop disappeared after his stellar rookie season. Judging by his peripherals and pedigree, it didn't make sense. New hitting coach George Brett may not be the master teacher, but he's not Maloof. Not surprisingly, Hosmer has hit .318 with eight homers and a .907 OPS in six weeks under his tutelage. Plenty of pop there. Knowing how good Hosmer should have been all along, I'll hope for the best until he gives me reason not to.

8. Which player stands to gain the most at the trade deadline?

When a player gets traded, changes in venue and supporting cast aren't nearly as pertinent to Fantasy owners as changes in role, particularly when it's the one and only role that makes a reliever worthwhile. Though the Brewers have a couple closers in waiting, the more rewarding option for Fantasy owners already got a chance to audition for the role when Rafael Betancourt missed time with a groin injury in June. With a 0.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, Rex Brothers is a stud in waiting, and the Rockies have groomed him to close from the beginning. Granted, they're fringe contenders now, but with a 9-18 record over their last 27 games, they're fading fast. If they pull the plug, a free agent-to-be like Betancourt would be an obvious choice to go and the top target for any contender looking for late-inning relief.

7. Is Josh Hamilton Josh Hamilton yet?

It's not much, but a .346 batting average, four homers and 1.080 OPS over his last 14 games is a step in the right direction for Hamilton after he began the season with a .207 batting average, 10 homers and .640 OPS in 72 games. Of course, he's still only about a .240 hitter since the beginning of last June (more than a full season, mind you), which is a far cry from what Fantasy owners drafted him to be. He doesn't have much explanation for the turnaround either, saying he just quit worrying about it. No doubt, Hamilton wouldn't be the first big free-agent signing to feel suffocated by his contract and need a few months to learn to breathe again, but considering all his swinging and missing comes just when he's exiting his prime at age 32, one little hot streak isn't enough to win me back. I recognize the potential and certainly haven't buried him in my rankings, but he's introduced so much risk to the equation that I'd still take Hunter Pence or Desmond Jennings over him.

6. Which yet-to-arrive prospect will make the biggest impact?

Billy Hamilton is the obvious answer considering he's the one preseason draft-and-stash yet to earn the call despite staying healthy all year, but he just isn't showing any improvement at Triple-A. His batting average has been stuck in the .250 range for weeks now, and his .301 on-base percentage is the last thing a contender wants in the leadoff spot. Christian Yelich is a possibility, but injury woes have limited his exposure to Double-A pitching, which has limited him to a .256 batting average so far. I could see him struggling for the Marlins. Nick Castellanos has a chance if the red-hot Matt Tuiasosopo doesn't hold him back, but right now I'm liking Taijuan Walker to make the biggest splash of anyone. He'll have to contend with an innings cap, but he's proven too dominant for Triple-A. With scouts raving about his stuff and poise at age 20, he's beginning to sound like another Jose Fernandez, which can only be a good thing for Fantasy owners.

5. Will stashing all these injured Yankees eventually pay off?

Right now, they seem far away, but Derek Jeter's sudden return Thursday (and the new injury that followed) showed how abruptly these things can change. Mark Teixeira is obviously a lost cause, and Kevin Youkilis probably doesn't offer enough at this stage of his career to justify the wait. But Curtis Granderson's pinkie won't stay broken forever. Wish you had Raul Ibanez in your lineup for his unexpectedly brilliant first half? Those numbers wouldn't be so unexpected for Granderson in the second half. Meanwhile, Michael Pineda could return to the rotation any day now. Stashing him is a little trickier since he's no longer on the DL, but let's not forget he was practically an ace as a rookie two years ago and has more or less regained the velocity on his fastball following shoulder surgery. I'd stash him over any other minor-league pitcher right now, Taijuan Walker included.

4. When is the time to trade Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller?

Innings limits. They have a way of interrupting good seasons for rookie pitchers. The Marlins have set Fernandez's at 170 or so. The Cardinals haven't set Miller's, at least not publicly, but considering he threw about 150 last year, 180 seems likely. The exact number is irrelevant. Even if permitted to throw 200 innings, Fernandez and Miller wouldn't be equipped to handle it as rookies. An unfamiliar rise in innings typically leads to undesirable numbers. Still, a known limit will cut into a player's value more than a general tendency, which makes trading these two a tricky proposition. To give Fernandez more time to maximize his value and Miller a chance to redeem his, I'd wait until the end of July to shop them aggressively.

3. How will the Braves make room for Brandon Beachy?

Beachy's setback in mid-June may have delayed the decision, but it didn't eliminate it. And frankly, we don't have any more clarity now. It's a big deal in Fantasy because it impacts not just Beachy, but two virtual mainstays in Kris Medlen and Julio Teheran. Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm haven't been as effective, but unlike Medlen, they can't transition to the bullpen, and unlike Teheran, they're equipped to go a full 200 innings. But the trade deadline is right around the corner. Just because the Braves are contending doesn't mean they can't move excess. Both Hudson and Maholm are free agents at season's end, so the Braves have no attachment to either, apart from the sentimental with Hudson. And either would land the Braves a better late-inning reliever than Medlen, who has clearly found his niche as a starter. This dilemma seems destined to resolve itself, so relax, all you Medlen and Teheran owners.

2. How much will Yasiel Puig slow down?

I'll just come out and say it: Puig won't hit .400 in his rookie season. You can challenge me on that if you want, but I have all of documented history backing me up. And judging by his 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, I'm guessing his regression won't be a gentle slide into normalcy but a cliff dive of more than 100 points in batting average. Of course, even if that comes to pass and he hits .265 the rest of the way, he's still a .310 hitter overall and likely the NL Rookie of the Year, factoring in his power and speed. Funny how numbers work, right? I rank Puig 21st among outfielders the rest of the way, which means he's really, really good. But not so good that you should outright refuse every offer that comes your way.

1. Will the Biogenesis investigation wreck your title hopes?

For the most part, Fantasy owners have done their best to tune out the Biogenesis stuff because it's all too theoretical and speculative to make any informed decisions with it. But as reports begin to fill in the gaps, a worst-case scenario seems all the more plausible. Rumor has it suspensions are coming for the 20 or so players connected to the Biogenesis clinic soon after the All-Star break, which would be unprecedented, to say the least. The MLB Players Association figures to fight any suspension that comes without proof, and proof most often comes in the form of positive tests, which are presumably lacking here. It's a messy situation that only the courts can sort out, and anyone who relies on precedent to guess how long it will take is probably guessing wrong. There is no precedent for this.

Among the relevant mixed-leaguers in question -- a group that includes Everth Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Bartolo Colon, Melky Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta -- the one with the most trade value is Ryan Braun, and I've moved him down to 15th in my outfield rankings to reflect the growing risk. It's now high enough that you should consider taking a lesser player for him, but not high enough that you should take whatever you can get.

For extra credit ...

Is Aramis Ramirez still worth the trouble?
His knees clearly aren't right, which is perhaps reason for optimism, but if his first DL stint couldn't cure him, I'm not sure this second one will make much of a difference. At age 35, he might never be fully healthy again and is overdue for a decline anyway. I wouldn't count on him being more than a middle-of-the-road mixed-league option when he returns.

Can we trust Tony Cingrani to stick around?
I'm willing to believe it more this time than any of the others. Apparently, three trips to the DL for the same injury is enough to convince the Reds that Johnny Cueto has a real problem. They haven't specified a timetable for his return, but they clearly won't rush it. If it drags on long enough, I could see the Reds opting to shut him down completely, especially if Cingrani continues to pitch like he has so far.

Will Evan Gattis get enough at-bats to matter?
He doesn't need that many. Catchers can get away with sporadic at-bats because they're all subject to them to some degree. Back in his Angels days, Mike Napoli played only about half the time and still delivered big enough power numbers to matter. Gattis has the added advantage of being his team's fourth outfielder. Jason Heyward's hamstring injury Thursday is just another example of this situation will perpetually sort itself out.

Is Adam Eaton's elbow really OK?
Thinking back to what Carl Crawford endured last year -- with MRIs coming back clean but repeated soreness and stiffness in his elbow until, whoops, Tommy John surgery -- I'm a bit skeptical, but Eaton's second rehab stint clearly went better than his first. For the upside, I'm willing to roll the dice on him. He's like Starling Marte, but with the plate discipline of Shin-Soo Choo.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Twins' Byron Buxton named No. 1 prospect by MLB.com
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:00 am ET) Twins outfielder Byron Buxton was named the top prospect in baseball by MLB.com Friday.

Buxton played just 31 games in 2014 due to wrist and concussion issues and finished with a .240/.313/.405 line along with four home runs, 16 RBI and six stolen bases in 121 at-bats with high Class A Fort Myers. He also went 0 for 3 at the Double-A level. Buxton is making his second straight appearance atop MLB.com's top prospect list.

The rest of MLB.com's top-five prospects (in order) are Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, Astros shotstop Carlos Correa, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor and Cubs shortstop Addison Russell. None of the quartet appeared in the top five of last year's MLB.com prospect list, though all four cracked the top 12.


Red Sox designate Drake Britton for assignment
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Red Sox designated pitcher Drake Britton for assignment Friday, clearing a roster spot for pitcher Alexi Ogando.

Britton appeared in seven games with the Red Sox in 2014, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out four batters and walking two. He posted a 5.86 ERA and 37:38 K:BB ratio in 58 1/3 innings with Triple-A Pawtucket.


Peter Moylan 'doing fantastic' in return from Tommy John
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) Free-agent pitcher Peter Moylan indicated Friday that he's "doing fantastic" in his return from his second Tommy John surgery, the Houston Chronicle reports.

"I’m doing fantastic, mate. Dropped 35 pounds," Moylan said. “My goal is to be 100 percent by end of spring. Ball is coming out great, though. Probably have to throw for some teams right around the start of spring to gauge interest, but there have already been some nibbles, which is encouraging."

Moylan underwent the procedure last March after receiving a non-roster invitation from the Astros. He's throwing from about 70 percent strength off a mound and in the process of deciding whether to sign a a deal in the near future or after the season begins. He hopes to resume pitching in the big leagues by midseason at the earliest.

Moylan has made 309 appearances since debuting in 2006, compiling a 21-9 record, 2.80 ERA and 213:121 K:BB ratio in 276 innings.


Braves' Shelby Miller: Sinker is 'going to take me to the next level'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) Braves starting pitcher Shelby Miller had an up-and-down season with the Cardinals in 2014. He began the season by going 6-2 with a 2.79 ERA before going 2-7 with a 5.11 ERA over his next 16 appearances (15 starts).

Miller, however, was able to finish the season on a high note, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and .190 opponents' batting average over his final seven starts. Miller attributes his success down the stretch to incorporating a sinker into his repertoire, per FOX Sports South.

"I said I'm going to throw some of these, and we'll see where it's at," Miller said of a conversation he had with catcher A.J. Pierzynski before an Aug. 23 start against the Phillies. "It felt good so we just went with it. I started throwing it literally within three days. It's a good pitch that I picked up quick.

"I still need a lot of work with it. I need a lot of work with all my pitches. There's all sorts of ways to get better. But I think that's definitely a pitch that will help me be more efficient and take me deeper into games. That's [the sinker] going to be a huge pitch for me this year that's ultimately going to take me to the next level. Not only that but kind of mixing it all together, becoming more of a complete pitcher more than a thrower."

Miller added he will also begin to work more on his changeup, which he threw just 2.2 percent of the time in 2014, per FanGraphs.com.

"I know [Braves pitching coach] Roger [McDowell] has been known for changeups," Miller said. "A lot of great pitchers have come through this organization, [and] that's a pitch I would love to pick up. I want to be able to throw it more consistently, [and] have a little bit more confidence in it."


Scott Baker agrees to minor-league deal with Yankees
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Yankees agreed to a minor-league deal with pitcher Scott Baker, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. If Baker makes the major-league roster, he will be paid $1.5 million.

Baker made 25 appearances (eight starts) for the Rangers in 2014, going 3-4 with a 5.47 ERA. He had 55 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings.


Rockies designate Jayson Aquino for assignment
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) After completing a two-team trade Friday, the Rockies decided to designate Jayson Aquino for assignment, the team announced.

Aquino spent 2014 bouncing around the minor league, pitching in 18 games with a 5.13 ERA in 107 innings pitched. He went 5-10 with 83 strikeouts in stints with both Double-A Tulsa and Class A Modesto.


Report: Red Sox express willingness to trade Edward Mujica
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Red Sox have expressed a willingness to trade reliever Edward Mujica, a source told FOX Sports. The right-handed reliever is set to make $4.75 million in 2015.

Mujica, who was an All-Star with St. Louis in 2013, went 2-4 with a 3.90 ERA and eight saves in his first season with Boston in 2014.


Orioles 1B/OF Steve Pearce agrees to $3.7M salary for 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Orioles avoided arbitration with outfielder/first baseman Steve Pearce, agreeing to a $3.7 million salary for 2015, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. Pearce reportedly filed for $5.4 million, while the Orioles reportedly offered $2 million.

Pearce is coming off his best season as a major leaguer, batting .293 with a .373 on-base percentage, .556 slugging percentage, .930 OPS, 21 home runs, 26 doubles and 49 RBI in 102 games.


Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is 'staying put'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) A team source told CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman that Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is "staying put."  Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich told FOX Sports earlier in the week that it is "highly, highly unlikely" Tulowitzki will be traded before opening day.

Tulowitzki, who has been linked to trade rumors involving the Mets this offseason, is under contract through 2020 on a six-year, $118 million deal. He is also recovering from August hip surgery.


Red Sox agree to deal with pitcher Alexi Ogando
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/30/2015) The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with pitcher Alexi Ogando, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. It is a one-year, $1.5 million contract, which includes $1.5 million in bonuses, according to USA Today.

Ogando has been a free agent since being non-tendered by the Rangers in December. Ogando made just 27 relief appearances in 2014 due to an elbow injury. He went 2-3 with a 6.84 ERA.

Ogando, who was an All-Star in 2011, also has experience starting at the major-league level, going 19-12 with a 3.40 ERA in 48 career starts.


 
 
 
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