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Reality Check: Second half studs and duds

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I have an admission to make to all the Fantasy purists out there: I've never been a buy-low, sell-high kind of guy.

No doubt, it's better than selling low and buying high, but I typically don't make trades to exploit someone else's faulty perceptions. It rarely works outside of April, and most experienced Fantasy owners don't fall for it even then.

Plus, if I had tried it this April, it would have backfired. I wasn't so much believing in Chris Davis then.

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And he's hardly the first player to fool me. So many factors go into a player's progression or regression that assessing him solely on his track record, pedigree or BABIP is tricky, to put it delicately. At some point, a season has to speak for itself. With more than half of this one behind us, I'm willing to believe that what we've seen so far is more or less what we'll continue to see.

But even so, I detect a few stragglers -- players who, for one reason or another, haven't shown us their true colors. And while I don't stake my season on it, I do stay alert for the right opportunity to act on that hunch.

So who fits the bill? I have here a group of 30, listed alphabetically. Let's just call them my likes and dislikes for the second half.

You don't need to read any more into it than that. Not every "like" is preferable to every "dislike." I'm not making sweeping changes to my rosters based on those labels. I just think everyone else values these players differently than I do.

If you want to use this list as a guide for buying low and selling high I won't stop you, but I do urge caution. Buying low doesn't mean buying at all costs and selling high doesn't mean taking whatever you can get. Your best bet for context is to consult my rest-of-season rankings. Perception influences them to some degree, but my preferences still take precedence.

Like: Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals
Adams was more highly regarded than both Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter coming up through the minors and, with a .316 batting average and .917 OPS in part-time duty, needs regular at-bats to follow in their footsteps as an out-of-nowhere Fantasy stud. Matt Holliday's strained hamstring is the start of what figures to be an injury-riddled second half for the Cardinals' aging corner outfield duo.

Dislike: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
The most amazing part about Alvarez's first hot streak of 2013 is that it still hasn't ended. Since April 18, he's batting .278 with 24 homers and a .925 OPS. And yet he's striking out more than once every three at-bats. He won't avoid last year's pitfalls that way. Most likely, an especially big one is on the horizon.

Like: Chris Archer, SP, Rays
The only way Archer managed to survive his high walk rate earlier this season was by giving up so few hits. That had to change eventually, right? Well, it did, but not in the way you'd think. In his final two starts before All-Star break, he issued no walks and still gave up only eight hits. That speaks to not only his growth, but also his stuff.

Dislike: Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
Matt Holliday may be Matt Adams' ticket to everyday at-bats right now, but Beltran figures to be the more frequent one in the second half as a 36-year-old with a history of injuries. Even if he manages to grind out another 65 games, he's liable to hit .236 like he did in the second half last year, when he battled hand, back and knee issues.

Like: Rex Brothers, RP, Rockies
The Rockies drafted Brothers with the intention of making him a closer, and now, in his third big-league season, he has a 0.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 43 appearances, making him as closer-ready as a reliever can be. Only Rafael Betancourt, a free agent to be, stands in his way, and he'll quickly become expendable if the Rockies' slide continues.

Like: Billy Butler, 1B, Royals
In the four years leading up to this one, Butler hit a combined .306, with a low mark of .291 in 2011. His strikeout rate is exactly the same as it was last year, and at age 27, he's still in the thick of his prime. So even if you believe his 29 homers last year were a fluke, you can't expect him to keep hitting just .271.

Like: Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
Though I never bought into Castro as a 25-homer or 30-steal guy, now that expectations for him have come back down to earth, I kind of like him. One thing both his pedigree and track record suggest he should do is hit for average, and his 23-for-76 (.303) stretch in his last 18 games suggests he's on his way to doing so.

Dislike: Bartolo Colon, SP, Athletics
With the notable exception of Randy Johnson, who was a freak in many ways, pitchers in their 40s don't throw 200-plus innings. Colon hasn't since 2005. The last chance he had (thanks to last year's suspension) was 2011, and he battled injuries the entire second half. You'll take what you can get from him, but you shouldn't expect it to last.

Dislike: Michael Cuddyer, OF, Rockies
Granted, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz disproved the players-don't-set-career-highs-in-their-mid-30s adage last year, but Cuddyer's .330 batting average is about 50 points higher than his previous high, and his .960 OPS is about 100 points higher. Coors Field or not, that's ridiculous, and his .244 batting average so far in July may be the start of a regression.

Like: Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks
Imagine Starling Marte with all of his speed and extra-base power, but with the walk rate of Shin-Soo Choo. That's what Eaton's minor-league numbers suggest he could be. Granted, he has impediments to those numbers, not the least of which is his continuing rehabilitation from a tricky elbow injury, but the potential has me plenty motivated to get him on my roster.

Dislike: Scott Feldman, SP, Orioles
Other than his ERA and WHIP, nothing points to Feldman being a dramatically changed pitcher from his many years in Texas, where he was league-average at best as a starter. His success with the Cubs may have had to do with him moving to the NL, but of course, the point is moot now that he's with the Orioles. He would have been a safe bet to regress even if he had stayed in Chicago, but now he's a near certainty.

Dislike: Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
I assumed innings wouldn't be an issue for Harvey after he threw about 170 between the majors and minors last year, but that was before I knew he'd be on pace for a Tom Seaver-like 230 this year. Everything that frustrated you about Jose Fernandez in the first half could be in play for Harvey in the second.

Like: Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
Maybe you take Headley's dreadful first half as a sign that his power surge last year was a fluke, but his struggles this year aren't a simple regression to the mean. Including his lackluster years with the Padres, he's a career .294 with an .816 OPS on the road. With the fences in at Petco Park this year, he should at least revert to that form when he gets his swing right.

Like: Jim Henderson, RP, Brewers
Though he seemed reluctant to do so, Brewers manager Ron Roenicke named Francisco Rodriguez his closer over Henderson a couple weeks ago, perhaps at the behest of a front office looking to sell at the trade deadline. Henderson is supposedly not on the market, which only fuels speculation. His performance as a closer before a hamstring injury in late May speaks for itself.

Like: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
Former hitting coach Jack Maloof had a misguided philosophy that discouraged his young sluggers from hitting for power at Kauffman Stadium. Before the Royals "reassigned" him, replacing him with the tandem of George Brett and Pedro Grifol, Hosmer hit .262 with one homer and a .654 OPS in 48 games. Since then, he has hit .308 with eight homers and an .866 OPS in 42 games. You do the math.

Dislike: Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners
At age 41, Ibanez has 24 home runs. The record for a 41-year-old is 29, set by Ted Williams in 1960. Ibanez -- by his own admission -- is no Ted Williams. He probably has the record in the bag now, but Father Time, if not his own track record, has to catch up to him sooner or later. Remember when he hit 22 homers in the first half as a mere 37-year-old in 2009? He hit only 12 (with a much lower batting average) in the second half that year.

Dislike: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
You know why Kendrick had only once hit more than 10 home runs prior to this season? Because his fly-ball rate is consistently one of the lowest in all of baseball. And that hasn't changed this year as he enters the second half with 11 homers. On a per-fly-ball basis, he's homering at nearly the same rate as Jose Bautista. Provided he hits more of those balls in play, you can expect his batting average to normalize as well.

Like: Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants
Lincecum's no-hitter Saturday wasn't the first ray of light in an otherwise gloomy season. In his previous seven starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Nobody expects ace numbers from him anymore, but with that strikeout rate, he's plenty useful if he continues to trend in this direction.

Dislike: Jeff Locke, SP, Pirates
Not everyone is a strikeout artist. Not everyone is a control freak. But the antithesis of both probably won't amount to much in the majors. Locke ranks 77th of the 92 qualifying pitchers in strikeout rate and 84th in walk rate. Yet he ranks second in ERA and 23rd in WHIP. Let's see what happens when those innings begin to pile up.

Dislike: Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
With his poor plate discipline, Machado will have to maintain an exceptionally high BABIP to keep his batting average over .300. It might not be such a big deal if his power was fully developed, but because he's mostly limited to doubles now, he may disappoint in the second half.

Like: Brad Miller, SS, Mariners
Some favorable hitter's environments may have inflated Miller's power numbers in the minors, but with seven walks, five doubles, two triples and two steals in 16 major-league contests, he's shown everything else will translate. He has a knack for putting bat on ball, demonstrating bat control readily apparent to the naked eye, which could make a poor man's Matt Carpenter in the second half.

Dislike: Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals
Between the majors and the minors last year, Miller threw 150 1/3 innings, which makes 180 a reasonable cutoff for this year if the Cardinals follow through on their intention of limiting his workload in the second half. Have all his five-inning outings because of shaky control recently frustrated you? Just wait for the early hooks when he's pitching well.

Dislike: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers
Peralta has managed to score the eighth-most Head-to-Head points among shortstops so far, but more because of his .303 batting average than his modest power numbers. The problem is he hadn't hit better than .299 in a season coming into this one, and he had a career low strikeout rate of 16.5 that year. His strikeout rate this year is the third-highest of his career.

Like: Martin Prado, 3B, Diamondbacks
With the exception of 2011, when he was plagued by a staph infection, Prado has hit .300 every full season in the big leagues. He still makes consistent contact and has enough power to keep defenses honest, so you can trust him to overcome whatever has held him back so far. His .314 batting average in his last 18 games may be the start of it.

Like: Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals
Between a torn ACL last year, a strained hamstring this year and the acquisition of Kurt Suzuki in between, Ramos hasn't had a chance to follow up a rookie season in which he hit 15 home runs in 389 at-bats, including six in his last 92. Now fully healthy and firmly ahead of Suzuki on the depth chart, he has hit .375 with a 1.019 OPS in nine games off the DL.

Dislike: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers
Nobody had much of a scouting report on Ryu coming into the season, which helped him compile a 1.14 WHIP and 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his first six starts and gave Fantasy owners, myself included, unrealistic expectations. In 12 starts since then, he has a Mark Buehrle-like 1.30 WHIP and 5.4 strikeouts per nine. Join me in thoroughly simmering down.

Like: Hector Santiago, SP, White Sox
With Dylan Axelrod coming off a six-start stretch that probably ranks among the worst in baseball history, Santiago is a pretty safe bet to stay in the rotation this time around. If he had compiled them without interruption, his 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter would make him something like another Gio Gonzalez.

Like: Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners
In 22 games since returning from the DL, Smoak has hit .333 (26 for 78) with five homers and a 1.018 OPS in 22 games, which you could dismiss as a hot streak if he didn't hit .282 with an .861 OPS in 26 games prior. He's back to walking like he did in his minors and has retooled his swing to produce more line drives. Hey, I've always liked the pedigree.

Like: Dan Straily, SP, Athletics
Straily has suffered from a disproportionately high ERA virtually all season long. His walk rate is low, and it's not like he's serving up a bunch of homers. His numbers just haven't recovered from a bumpy four-start stretch in late April and early May. Since then, he has a 2.83 ERA in nine starts, and in his last two, like in the minors, he was practically unhittable.

Dislike: Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles
Tillman is a decent pitcher who owes his 6-0 June more to good fortune than anything else. His skill-based ratios -- specifically, his 7.1 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings -- were as uninspiring as usual that month. Teammate Miguel Gonzalez averaged 7.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings in June and generally pitches deeper into games. Which would you rather own in Fantasy?

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Report: Rafael Furcal to miss winter league with torn hamstring
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) Free-agent infielder Rafael Furcal will miss the winter league playoffs after suffering a torn hamstring, according to ESPN Deportes. 

The 37-year-old Furcal struggled with injuries last year, playing in just nine games. He hit .171 over 35 at-bats with Miami. Furcal went on the disabled list two separate times with hamstring issues last season.


Report: Wandy Rodriguez close to signing with the Phillies
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) Pitcher Wandy Rodriguez is traveling to Philadelphia in order to take a physical, according to Phillies Spanish play-by-play man, Angel Castillo. 

If that physical goes well, Rodriguez is expected to sign with the club. The 35-year-old had knee surgery in June, but decided to pitch in winter ball in order to show major-league teams he had something left in the tank. Rodriguez posted a 6.75 ERA over 26 2/3 innings with the Pirates before he was shut down for the season. 


Yankees pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to return to Japan
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) Yankees pitcher Hiroki Kuroda will return to pitch in Japan next season, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. A Hiroshima newspaper was the first to have the report.

The 39-year-old Kuroda spent seven seasons in the United States. He posted a career 3.45 ERA over 1319 innings. After spending the first four seasons of his career with the Dodgers, Kuroda joined the Yankees. He remained with the organization for three seasons, but made sure his contract went year-to-year so that he could return to Japan when ready. Kuroda plans to continue his baseball career in Japan, and will pitch for the Hiroshima Carp next year. 


Report: Giants my look at Rays second baseman Ben Zobrist
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) The Giants may look into acquiring Rays second baseman Ben Zobrist, according to Gammons Daily. 

Gammons notes that several general managers believe the club will deal prospects to acquire the 33-year-old Zobrist. San Francisco is currently slated to start Joe Panik at second, but Zobrist can play multiple positions. It's unclear where the Giants would elect to use Zobrist the most. He hit .272/.354/.395 in 570 at-bats last season. Zobrist is entering the final year of his contract, and is due $7.5 million next season.


Report: Yankees have yet to be informed of Hiroki Kuroda's plans
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) The Yankees have yet to be informed of pitcher Hiroki Kuroda's plans for next year, according to the New York Times.

A Hiroshima newspaper reported Kuroda will return to Japan next season, ending a seven-year run in the United States. The 39-year-old posted a 3.71 ERA over 199 innings with New York last season. Kuroda had signed one-year deals the past couple of offseasons so that he could return to Japan when ready.


1B Clint Robinson hooks up with Nationals
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) The Nationals have signed first baseman Clint Robinson to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

Robinson had been in the Dodgers organization. He compiled a strong .312/.401/.535 slash line at the Triple-A level a year ago.


Report: RHP Hiroki Kuroda heading back to Japan
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) Veteran right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is heading back to Japan, thereby ending his career with the Yankees, per various reports.

Kuroda, who will be 40 years old in February, pitched seven seasons in the major leagues, including the last three in the Big Apple. He finished 2014 with an 11-9 record and 3.71 ERA.


Astros LHP Downs, IF Petit heading to Fresno
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) The Astros have outrighted left-hander Darin Downs to Triple-A Fresno after having cleared waivers. 

The team has also announced that infielder Gregorio Petit has accepted an assignment to Fresno. He and Downs are set to join the squad in spring training.


Nationals taking chance on 2B Dan Uggla
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) Second baseman Dan Uggla, who has spent most of his recent years creating a breeze at the plate, has signed a minor league deal with the Nationals with a spring training invite.

Uggla received a career-low 141 at-bats last season with Atlanta and San Francisco. He compiled a disturbing slash line of .149/.229/.213 with 46 strikeouts. His batting average has fallen in each of the last four years.


Diamondbacks bring in LHP Dan Runzler
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/26/2014) Left-hander Dan Runzler did not stick around in Japan for long. He spent the last two months of the 2014 season there, but is back in the states after signing a minor league contract with the Diamondbacks.

Runzler compiled a 3.30 ERA and fanned 53 in 46 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level for San Francisco last season before bolting to Japan.


 
 
 
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