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Reality Check: Second half studs and duds

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I have an admission to make to all the Fantasy purists out there: I've never been a buy-low, sell-high kind of guy.

No doubt, it's better than selling low and buying high, but I typically don't make trades to exploit someone else's faulty perceptions. It rarely works outside of April, and most experienced Fantasy owners don't fall for it even then.

Plus, if I had tried it this April, it would have backfired. I wasn't so much believing in Chris Davis then.

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And he's hardly the first player to fool me. So many factors go into a player's progression or regression that assessing him solely on his track record, pedigree or BABIP is tricky, to put it delicately. At some point, a season has to speak for itself. With more than half of this one behind us, I'm willing to believe that what we've seen so far is more or less what we'll continue to see.

But even so, I detect a few stragglers -- players who, for one reason or another, haven't shown us their true colors. And while I don't stake my season on it, I do stay alert for the right opportunity to act on that hunch.

So who fits the bill? I have here a group of 30, listed alphabetically. Let's just call them my likes and dislikes for the second half.

You don't need to read any more into it than that. Not every "like" is preferable to every "dislike." I'm not making sweeping changes to my rosters based on those labels. I just think everyone else values these players differently than I do.

If you want to use this list as a guide for buying low and selling high I won't stop you, but I do urge caution. Buying low doesn't mean buying at all costs and selling high doesn't mean taking whatever you can get. Your best bet for context is to consult my rest-of-season rankings. Perception influences them to some degree, but my preferences still take precedence.

Like: Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals
Adams was more highly regarded than both Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter coming up through the minors and, with a .316 batting average and .917 OPS in part-time duty, needs regular at-bats to follow in their footsteps as an out-of-nowhere Fantasy stud. Matt Holliday's strained hamstring is the start of what figures to be an injury-riddled second half for the Cardinals' aging corner outfield duo.

Dislike: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
The most amazing part about Alvarez's first hot streak of 2013 is that it still hasn't ended. Since April 18, he's batting .278 with 24 homers and a .925 OPS. And yet he's striking out more than once every three at-bats. He won't avoid last year's pitfalls that way. Most likely, an especially big one is on the horizon.

Like: Chris Archer, SP, Rays
The only way Archer managed to survive his high walk rate earlier this season was by giving up so few hits. That had to change eventually, right? Well, it did, but not in the way you'd think. In his final two starts before All-Star break, he issued no walks and still gave up only eight hits. That speaks to not only his growth, but also his stuff.

Dislike: Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
Matt Holliday may be Matt Adams' ticket to everyday at-bats right now, but Beltran figures to be the more frequent one in the second half as a 36-year-old with a history of injuries. Even if he manages to grind out another 65 games, he's liable to hit .236 like he did in the second half last year, when he battled hand, back and knee issues.

Like: Rex Brothers, RP, Rockies
The Rockies drafted Brothers with the intention of making him a closer, and now, in his third big-league season, he has a 0.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 43 appearances, making him as closer-ready as a reliever can be. Only Rafael Betancourt, a free agent to be, stands in his way, and he'll quickly become expendable if the Rockies' slide continues.

Like: Billy Butler, 1B, Royals
In the four years leading up to this one, Butler hit a combined .306, with a low mark of .291 in 2011. His strikeout rate is exactly the same as it was last year, and at age 27, he's still in the thick of his prime. So even if you believe his 29 homers last year were a fluke, you can't expect him to keep hitting just .271.

Like: Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
Though I never bought into Castro as a 25-homer or 30-steal guy, now that expectations for him have come back down to earth, I kind of like him. One thing both his pedigree and track record suggest he should do is hit for average, and his 23-for-76 (.303) stretch in his last 18 games suggests he's on his way to doing so.

Dislike: Bartolo Colon, SP, Athletics
With the notable exception of Randy Johnson, who was a freak in many ways, pitchers in their 40s don't throw 200-plus innings. Colon hasn't since 2005. The last chance he had (thanks to last year's suspension) was 2011, and he battled injuries the entire second half. You'll take what you can get from him, but you shouldn't expect it to last.

Dislike: Michael Cuddyer, OF, Rockies
Granted, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz disproved the players-don't-set-career-highs-in-their-mid-30s adage last year, but Cuddyer's .330 batting average is about 50 points higher than his previous high, and his .960 OPS is about 100 points higher. Coors Field or not, that's ridiculous, and his .244 batting average so far in July may be the start of a regression.

Like: Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks
Imagine Starling Marte with all of his speed and extra-base power, but with the walk rate of Shin-Soo Choo. That's what Eaton's minor-league numbers suggest he could be. Granted, he has impediments to those numbers, not the least of which is his continuing rehabilitation from a tricky elbow injury, but the potential has me plenty motivated to get him on my roster.

Dislike: Scott Feldman, SP, Orioles
Other than his ERA and WHIP, nothing points to Feldman being a dramatically changed pitcher from his many years in Texas, where he was league-average at best as a starter. His success with the Cubs may have had to do with him moving to the NL, but of course, the point is moot now that he's with the Orioles. He would have been a safe bet to regress even if he had stayed in Chicago, but now he's a near certainty.

Dislike: Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
I assumed innings wouldn't be an issue for Harvey after he threw about 170 between the majors and minors last year, but that was before I knew he'd be on pace for a Tom Seaver-like 230 this year. Everything that frustrated you about Jose Fernandez in the first half could be in play for Harvey in the second.

Like: Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
Maybe you take Headley's dreadful first half as a sign that his power surge last year was a fluke, but his struggles this year aren't a simple regression to the mean. Including his lackluster years with the Padres, he's a career .294 with an .816 OPS on the road. With the fences in at Petco Park this year, he should at least revert to that form when he gets his swing right.

Like: Jim Henderson, RP, Brewers
Though he seemed reluctant to do so, Brewers manager Ron Roenicke named Francisco Rodriguez his closer over Henderson a couple weeks ago, perhaps at the behest of a front office looking to sell at the trade deadline. Henderson is supposedly not on the market, which only fuels speculation. His performance as a closer before a hamstring injury in late May speaks for itself.

Like: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
Former hitting coach Jack Maloof had a misguided philosophy that discouraged his young sluggers from hitting for power at Kauffman Stadium. Before the Royals "reassigned" him, replacing him with the tandem of George Brett and Pedro Grifol, Hosmer hit .262 with one homer and a .654 OPS in 48 games. Since then, he has hit .308 with eight homers and an .866 OPS in 42 games. You do the math.

Dislike: Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners
At age 41, Ibanez has 24 home runs. The record for a 41-year-old is 29, set by Ted Williams in 1960. Ibanez -- by his own admission -- is no Ted Williams. He probably has the record in the bag now, but Father Time, if not his own track record, has to catch up to him sooner or later. Remember when he hit 22 homers in the first half as a mere 37-year-old in 2009? He hit only 12 (with a much lower batting average) in the second half that year.

Dislike: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
You know why Kendrick had only once hit more than 10 home runs prior to this season? Because his fly-ball rate is consistently one of the lowest in all of baseball. And that hasn't changed this year as he enters the second half with 11 homers. On a per-fly-ball basis, he's homering at nearly the same rate as Jose Bautista. Provided he hits more of those balls in play, you can expect his batting average to normalize as well.

Like: Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants
Lincecum's no-hitter Saturday wasn't the first ray of light in an otherwise gloomy season. In his previous seven starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Nobody expects ace numbers from him anymore, but with that strikeout rate, he's plenty useful if he continues to trend in this direction.

Dislike: Jeff Locke, SP, Pirates
Not everyone is a strikeout artist. Not everyone is a control freak. But the antithesis of both probably won't amount to much in the majors. Locke ranks 77th of the 92 qualifying pitchers in strikeout rate and 84th in walk rate. Yet he ranks second in ERA and 23rd in WHIP. Let's see what happens when those innings begin to pile up.

Dislike: Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
With his poor plate discipline, Machado will have to maintain an exceptionally high BABIP to keep his batting average over .300. It might not be such a big deal if his power was fully developed, but because he's mostly limited to doubles now, he may disappoint in the second half.

Like: Brad Miller, SS, Mariners
Some favorable hitter's environments may have inflated Miller's power numbers in the minors, but with seven walks, five doubles, two triples and two steals in 16 major-league contests, he's shown everything else will translate. He has a knack for putting bat on ball, demonstrating bat control readily apparent to the naked eye, which could make a poor man's Matt Carpenter in the second half.

Dislike: Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals
Between the majors and the minors last year, Miller threw 150 1/3 innings, which makes 180 a reasonable cutoff for this year if the Cardinals follow through on their intention of limiting his workload in the second half. Have all his five-inning outings because of shaky control recently frustrated you? Just wait for the early hooks when he's pitching well.

Dislike: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers
Peralta has managed to score the eighth-most Head-to-Head points among shortstops so far, but more because of his .303 batting average than his modest power numbers. The problem is he hadn't hit better than .299 in a season coming into this one, and he had a career low strikeout rate of 16.5 that year. His strikeout rate this year is the third-highest of his career.

Like: Martin Prado, 3B, Diamondbacks
With the exception of 2011, when he was plagued by a staph infection, Prado has hit .300 every full season in the big leagues. He still makes consistent contact and has enough power to keep defenses honest, so you can trust him to overcome whatever has held him back so far. His .314 batting average in his last 18 games may be the start of it.

Like: Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals
Between a torn ACL last year, a strained hamstring this year and the acquisition of Kurt Suzuki in between, Ramos hasn't had a chance to follow up a rookie season in which he hit 15 home runs in 389 at-bats, including six in his last 92. Now fully healthy and firmly ahead of Suzuki on the depth chart, he has hit .375 with a 1.019 OPS in nine games off the DL.

Dislike: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers
Nobody had much of a scouting report on Ryu coming into the season, which helped him compile a 1.14 WHIP and 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his first six starts and gave Fantasy owners, myself included, unrealistic expectations. In 12 starts since then, he has a Mark Buehrle-like 1.30 WHIP and 5.4 strikeouts per nine. Join me in thoroughly simmering down.

Like: Hector Santiago, SP, White Sox
With Dylan Axelrod coming off a six-start stretch that probably ranks among the worst in baseball history, Santiago is a pretty safe bet to stay in the rotation this time around. If he had compiled them without interruption, his 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter would make him something like another Gio Gonzalez.

Like: Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners
In 22 games since returning from the DL, Smoak has hit .333 (26 for 78) with five homers and a 1.018 OPS in 22 games, which you could dismiss as a hot streak if he didn't hit .282 with an .861 OPS in 26 games prior. He's back to walking like he did in his minors and has retooled his swing to produce more line drives. Hey, I've always liked the pedigree.

Like: Dan Straily, SP, Athletics
Straily has suffered from a disproportionately high ERA virtually all season long. His walk rate is low, and it's not like he's serving up a bunch of homers. His numbers just haven't recovered from a bumpy four-start stretch in late April and early May. Since then, he has a 2.83 ERA in nine starts, and in his last two, like in the minors, he was practically unhittable.

Dislike: Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles
Tillman is a decent pitcher who owes his 6-0 June more to good fortune than anything else. His skill-based ratios -- specifically, his 7.1 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings -- were as uninspiring as usual that month. Teammate Miguel Gonzalez averaged 7.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings in June and generally pitches deeper into games. Which would you rather own in Fantasy?

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Rays' Desmond Jennings (knee) not in lineup Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10:01 am ET) Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings is not in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against the Blue Jays.

Jennings was removed from Saturday's game due to knee soreness and, one day later, he'll miss his first start of the season. He has hit .222/.306/.238 with five stolen bases in 63 at-bats.

The Rays are favorites (-135) against the Blue Jays Sunday.


Indians' Mike Aviles in, Jose Ramirez out of lineup Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:55 am ET) Indians infielder Mike Aviles is in the starting lineup Sunday, batting second and playing shortstop in his team's matchup with the Tigers.

Aviles is seeing just his second start of the season at shortstop, as most of his work has come in the oufield. He'll take the place of Jose Ramirez, who had started 10 straight games coming into Sunday.

The Indians have also made a change at the top of the lineup, moving second baseman Jason Kipnis to the leadoff spot. Kipnis and Aviles batted 1-2 in the team's last start against a southpaw, and lefty Kyle Lobstein is on the mound of the Tigers Sunday. Center fielder and typical leadoff man Michael Bourn will bat ninth.

The Indians are road favorites (-115) in Detroit Sunday.


Mariners promote Roenis Elias, option Lucas Luetge
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:46 am ET) The Mariners called up pitcher Roenis Elias from Triple-A Tacoma Sunday, optioning pitcher Lucas Luetge to Tacoma in a corresponding move.

Elias is set to start Sunday's game against the Twins in place of Hisashi Iwakuma, who is on the disabled list with a lat injury. Elias went 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 143:64 K:BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings across 29 starts for the Mariners last season.


Dodgers' Brandon McCarthy (elbow) hoping for tendinitis
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:43 am ET) Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy is hoping that the elbow injury that forced him from Saturday's start against the Padres is merely tendinitis, MLB.com reports.

Initial tests on the elbow came back negative for ligament damage, so it's possible the injury will only be a short-term one for McCarthy, who gave up six earned runs in five-plus innings Saturday before being removed. He has posted an ugly 5.87 ERA through four starts but is 3-0 with an excellent 29:4 K:BB ratio in 23 innings.


Reds' Devin Mesoraco (hip), Jay Bruce out of lineup Sunday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:30 am ET) Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco and right fielder Jay Bruce are not in the starting lineup for Sunday's game against the Cubs.

Mesoraco has seen just two plate appearances as a pinch-hitter in the last two weeks as he continues to deal with left hip impingement. Brayan Pena gets the call behind the plate and will bat eighth.

Bruce has started each of the team's first 17 games in right field but will get his first break of the season Sunday. With Bruce on the bench, first baseman Joey Votto is the only player on the team to have started every gamethis season. Brennan Boesch will man right field and bat fifth in the team's matchup against righty Jake Arrieta.

The Reds are home underdogs (+105) Sunday.


Report: Cardinals' Adam Wainwright (Achilles) likely out for season
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:22 am ET) Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright has yet to undergo an MRI after exiting Saturday's start with an Achilles injury, but the expectation is that he'll miss the remainder of the season, FOX Sports reports.

Wainwright appeared to suffer the injury during one of his own at-bats, stumbling out of the batter's box. The Cardinals announced that the pitcher suffered an ankle injury, and the pitcher himself said after the game that the injury was in the back of the ankle.

Wainwright is 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA and 18:3 K:BB ratio in 25 innings. With Jaime Garcia (shoulder) and Triple-A starter Marco Gonzales (pectoral) still on the mend, the team could turn to Triple-A pitcher Tyler Lyons or long-reliever Carlos Villanueva to fill Wainwright's rotation spot for the immediate future, with Garcia or Gonzales likely to enter the rotation when healthy if Wainwright is dealing with a season-ending injury.


Indians' Trevor Bauer (illness) penciled in to start Tuesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:13 am ET) Indians pticher Trevor Bauer (illness) is listed as the probable starter for Tuesday's matchup with the Royals.

Bauer had to be scratched from Saturday's scheduled start against the Tigers at the last minute due to food poisoning. He'll look to put a cap on his excellent April in a home start Tuesday. Bauer is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 26:11 K:BB ratio in 19 innings.


Rays' Tim Beckham drives in winning run Saturday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:58 am ET) Rays infielder Tim Beckham continues to show his potential in the big leagues. Beckham ripped a two-run double in the eighth inning off Miguel Castro to break a 2-2 tie. 

"I was just hoping I had a chance to get another at-bat, man," Beckham said to MLB.com. "I struck out twice tonight looking. I wasn't too happy about that. That's not what I like to do. Nobody likes to do it. But I definitely don't like to strike out looking. Just wanted to get another AB, and another opportunity to hit the ball hard. Hopefully some runners on base and get some RBIs."

Beckham was given the green light to swing on a 3-0 count and delivered.

"I didn't get it clean off the barrel, but I put a good swing on it," Beckham said. "He was throwing the ball pretty hard. Thought I had enough to get it out of here."

Beckham is hitting .275 with five RBI in 40 at-bats this season.


Dodgers' Andre Ethier smacks second home run of 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:54 am ET) Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier went 3 for 4 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday.

Ethier, starting for the injured Yasiel Puig, found success early and often, slugging a home run in the first inning off of Ian Kennedy to drive in Jimmy Rollins, his second of the season. Ethier then doubled in the fifth inning and singled to center in the eighth to drive in another run.

Ethier is now hitting .353 with six RBI in 34 at-bats this season.


Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe connects for first home run
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:51 am ET) Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe went 1 for 5 at the plate in Los Angeles' 11-8 win over the Padres Saturday. Uribe did his damage in the fifth inning when he smashed a 1-1 pitch from Ian Kennedy over the right field wall for a two-run home run, his first of the season.

Uribe is now hitting .244 with three RBI in 45 at-bats this season.


 
 
 
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