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Reality Check: Second half studs and duds

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I have an admission to make to all the Fantasy purists out there: I've never been a buy-low, sell-high kind of guy.

No doubt, it's better than selling low and buying high, but I typically don't make trades to exploit someone else's faulty perceptions. It rarely works outside of April, and most experienced Fantasy owners don't fall for it even then.

Plus, if I had tried it this April, it would have backfired. I wasn't so much believing in Chris Davis then.

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And he's hardly the first player to fool me. So many factors go into a player's progression or regression that assessing him solely on his track record, pedigree or BABIP is tricky, to put it delicately. At some point, a season has to speak for itself. With more than half of this one behind us, I'm willing to believe that what we've seen so far is more or less what we'll continue to see.

But even so, I detect a few stragglers -- players who, for one reason or another, haven't shown us their true colors. And while I don't stake my season on it, I do stay alert for the right opportunity to act on that hunch.

So who fits the bill? I have here a group of 30, listed alphabetically. Let's just call them my likes and dislikes for the second half.

You don't need to read any more into it than that. Not every "like" is preferable to every "dislike." I'm not making sweeping changes to my rosters based on those labels. I just think everyone else values these players differently than I do.

If you want to use this list as a guide for buying low and selling high I won't stop you, but I do urge caution. Buying low doesn't mean buying at all costs and selling high doesn't mean taking whatever you can get. Your best bet for context is to consult my rest-of-season rankings. Perception influences them to some degree, but my preferences still take precedence.

Like: Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals
Adams was more highly regarded than both Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter coming up through the minors and, with a .316 batting average and .917 OPS in part-time duty, needs regular at-bats to follow in their footsteps as an out-of-nowhere Fantasy stud. Matt Holliday's strained hamstring is the start of what figures to be an injury-riddled second half for the Cardinals' aging corner outfield duo.

Dislike: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
The most amazing part about Alvarez's first hot streak of 2013 is that it still hasn't ended. Since April 18, he's batting .278 with 24 homers and a .925 OPS. And yet he's striking out more than once every three at-bats. He won't avoid last year's pitfalls that way. Most likely, an especially big one is on the horizon.

Like: Chris Archer, SP, Rays
The only way Archer managed to survive his high walk rate earlier this season was by giving up so few hits. That had to change eventually, right? Well, it did, but not in the way you'd think. In his final two starts before All-Star break, he issued no walks and still gave up only eight hits. That speaks to not only his growth, but also his stuff.

Dislike: Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
Matt Holliday may be Matt Adams' ticket to everyday at-bats right now, but Beltran figures to be the more frequent one in the second half as a 36-year-old with a history of injuries. Even if he manages to grind out another 65 games, he's liable to hit .236 like he did in the second half last year, when he battled hand, back and knee issues.

Like: Rex Brothers, RP, Rockies
The Rockies drafted Brothers with the intention of making him a closer, and now, in his third big-league season, he has a 0.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 43 appearances, making him as closer-ready as a reliever can be. Only Rafael Betancourt, a free agent to be, stands in his way, and he'll quickly become expendable if the Rockies' slide continues.

Like: Billy Butler, 1B, Royals
In the four years leading up to this one, Butler hit a combined .306, with a low mark of .291 in 2011. His strikeout rate is exactly the same as it was last year, and at age 27, he's still in the thick of his prime. So even if you believe his 29 homers last year were a fluke, you can't expect him to keep hitting just .271.

Like: Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
Though I never bought into Castro as a 25-homer or 30-steal guy, now that expectations for him have come back down to earth, I kind of like him. One thing both his pedigree and track record suggest he should do is hit for average, and his 23-for-76 (.303) stretch in his last 18 games suggests he's on his way to doing so.

Dislike: Bartolo Colon, SP, Athletics
With the notable exception of Randy Johnson, who was a freak in many ways, pitchers in their 40s don't throw 200-plus innings. Colon hasn't since 2005. The last chance he had (thanks to last year's suspension) was 2011, and he battled injuries the entire second half. You'll take what you can get from him, but you shouldn't expect it to last.

Dislike: Michael Cuddyer, OF, Rockies
Granted, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz disproved the players-don't-set-career-highs-in-their-mid-30s adage last year, but Cuddyer's .330 batting average is about 50 points higher than his previous high, and his .960 OPS is about 100 points higher. Coors Field or not, that's ridiculous, and his .244 batting average so far in July may be the start of a regression.

Like: Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks
Imagine Starling Marte with all of his speed and extra-base power, but with the walk rate of Shin-Soo Choo. That's what Eaton's minor-league numbers suggest he could be. Granted, he has impediments to those numbers, not the least of which is his continuing rehabilitation from a tricky elbow injury, but the potential has me plenty motivated to get him on my roster.

Dislike: Scott Feldman, SP, Orioles
Other than his ERA and WHIP, nothing points to Feldman being a dramatically changed pitcher from his many years in Texas, where he was league-average at best as a starter. His success with the Cubs may have had to do with him moving to the NL, but of course, the point is moot now that he's with the Orioles. He would have been a safe bet to regress even if he had stayed in Chicago, but now he's a near certainty.

Dislike: Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
I assumed innings wouldn't be an issue for Harvey after he threw about 170 between the majors and minors last year, but that was before I knew he'd be on pace for a Tom Seaver-like 230 this year. Everything that frustrated you about Jose Fernandez in the first half could be in play for Harvey in the second.

Like: Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
Maybe you take Headley's dreadful first half as a sign that his power surge last year was a fluke, but his struggles this year aren't a simple regression to the mean. Including his lackluster years with the Padres, he's a career .294 with an .816 OPS on the road. With the fences in at Petco Park this year, he should at least revert to that form when he gets his swing right.

Like: Jim Henderson, RP, Brewers
Though he seemed reluctant to do so, Brewers manager Ron Roenicke named Francisco Rodriguez his closer over Henderson a couple weeks ago, perhaps at the behest of a front office looking to sell at the trade deadline. Henderson is supposedly not on the market, which only fuels speculation. His performance as a closer before a hamstring injury in late May speaks for itself.

Like: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
Former hitting coach Jack Maloof had a misguided philosophy that discouraged his young sluggers from hitting for power at Kauffman Stadium. Before the Royals "reassigned" him, replacing him with the tandem of George Brett and Pedro Grifol, Hosmer hit .262 with one homer and a .654 OPS in 48 games. Since then, he has hit .308 with eight homers and an .866 OPS in 42 games. You do the math.

Dislike: Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners
At age 41, Ibanez has 24 home runs. The record for a 41-year-old is 29, set by Ted Williams in 1960. Ibanez -- by his own admission -- is no Ted Williams. He probably has the record in the bag now, but Father Time, if not his own track record, has to catch up to him sooner or later. Remember when he hit 22 homers in the first half as a mere 37-year-old in 2009? He hit only 12 (with a much lower batting average) in the second half that year.

Dislike: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
You know why Kendrick had only once hit more than 10 home runs prior to this season? Because his fly-ball rate is consistently one of the lowest in all of baseball. And that hasn't changed this year as he enters the second half with 11 homers. On a per-fly-ball basis, he's homering at nearly the same rate as Jose Bautista. Provided he hits more of those balls in play, you can expect his batting average to normalize as well.

Like: Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants
Lincecum's no-hitter Saturday wasn't the first ray of light in an otherwise gloomy season. In his previous seven starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Nobody expects ace numbers from him anymore, but with that strikeout rate, he's plenty useful if he continues to trend in this direction.

Dislike: Jeff Locke, SP, Pirates
Not everyone is a strikeout artist. Not everyone is a control freak. But the antithesis of both probably won't amount to much in the majors. Locke ranks 77th of the 92 qualifying pitchers in strikeout rate and 84th in walk rate. Yet he ranks second in ERA and 23rd in WHIP. Let's see what happens when those innings begin to pile up.

Dislike: Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
With his poor plate discipline, Machado will have to maintain an exceptionally high BABIP to keep his batting average over .300. It might not be such a big deal if his power was fully developed, but because he's mostly limited to doubles now, he may disappoint in the second half.

Like: Brad Miller, SS, Mariners
Some favorable hitter's environments may have inflated Miller's power numbers in the minors, but with seven walks, five doubles, two triples and two steals in 16 major-league contests, he's shown everything else will translate. He has a knack for putting bat on ball, demonstrating bat control readily apparent to the naked eye, which could make a poor man's Matt Carpenter in the second half.

Dislike: Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals
Between the majors and the minors last year, Miller threw 150 1/3 innings, which makes 180 a reasonable cutoff for this year if the Cardinals follow through on their intention of limiting his workload in the second half. Have all his five-inning outings because of shaky control recently frustrated you? Just wait for the early hooks when he's pitching well.

Dislike: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers
Peralta has managed to score the eighth-most Head-to-Head points among shortstops so far, but more because of his .303 batting average than his modest power numbers. The problem is he hadn't hit better than .299 in a season coming into this one, and he had a career low strikeout rate of 16.5 that year. His strikeout rate this year is the third-highest of his career.

Like: Martin Prado, 3B, Diamondbacks
With the exception of 2011, when he was plagued by a staph infection, Prado has hit .300 every full season in the big leagues. He still makes consistent contact and has enough power to keep defenses honest, so you can trust him to overcome whatever has held him back so far. His .314 batting average in his last 18 games may be the start of it.

Like: Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals
Between a torn ACL last year, a strained hamstring this year and the acquisition of Kurt Suzuki in between, Ramos hasn't had a chance to follow up a rookie season in which he hit 15 home runs in 389 at-bats, including six in his last 92. Now fully healthy and firmly ahead of Suzuki on the depth chart, he has hit .375 with a 1.019 OPS in nine games off the DL.

Dislike: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers
Nobody had much of a scouting report on Ryu coming into the season, which helped him compile a 1.14 WHIP and 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his first six starts and gave Fantasy owners, myself included, unrealistic expectations. In 12 starts since then, he has a Mark Buehrle-like 1.30 WHIP and 5.4 strikeouts per nine. Join me in thoroughly simmering down.

Like: Hector Santiago, SP, White Sox
With Dylan Axelrod coming off a six-start stretch that probably ranks among the worst in baseball history, Santiago is a pretty safe bet to stay in the rotation this time around. If he had compiled them without interruption, his 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter would make him something like another Gio Gonzalez.

Like: Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners
In 22 games since returning from the DL, Smoak has hit .333 (26 for 78) with five homers and a 1.018 OPS in 22 games, which you could dismiss as a hot streak if he didn't hit .282 with an .861 OPS in 26 games prior. He's back to walking like he did in his minors and has retooled his swing to produce more line drives. Hey, I've always liked the pedigree.

Like: Dan Straily, SP, Athletics
Straily has suffered from a disproportionately high ERA virtually all season long. His walk rate is low, and it's not like he's serving up a bunch of homers. His numbers just haven't recovered from a bumpy four-start stretch in late April and early May. Since then, he has a 2.83 ERA in nine starts, and in his last two, like in the minors, he was practically unhittable.

Dislike: Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles
Tillman is a decent pitcher who owes his 6-0 June more to good fortune than anything else. His skill-based ratios -- specifically, his 7.1 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings -- were as uninspiring as usual that month. Teammate Miguel Gonzalez averaged 7.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings in June and generally pitches deeper into games. Which would you rather own in Fantasy?

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Mariners P Felix Hernandez allows 1 earned run in win
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:45 am ET) Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez had yet another strong game, allowing just one earned run in Friday night's 4-3 win over the Blue Jays. 

It was a great game for Hernandez, who was coming off a performance where he allowed four earned runs on May 16 against the Red Sox. Hernandez gave up only four hits and two walks while striking out eight batters. 

Hernandez now has 55 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings this season. Hernandez now holds a 2.19 ERA for the season. 

His next start is projected for May 27 against the Rays. 


Brewers OF Khris Davis drives in two runs in Friday's win
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:35 am ET) Brewers outfielder Khris Davis had just one hit during Friday's 11-0 win over the Braves, but he made the hit count. Davis drove in two runs when he doubled off Trevor Cahill in the fourth inning. Davis finished the game 1 for 5 with two strike outs.

Over his last six games, Davis is 2 for 21 with two RBI and no home runs.


Yankees' Mark Teixeira hits second homer in past three games
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:29 am ET) Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira hit his 13th home run of the season during Friday night's 10-9 loss to the Rangers. 

Teixeira went yard in the ninth inning, taking a 2-1 pitch deep to right field. He finished the game 1 for 5 as the homer was his only hit. It's his second home run in his past three games. 

Teixeira is now slashing .250/.371/.596 for the season. Since May 1, he holds a .298 batting average. 


Brewers OF Ryan Braun drives in four runs in Friday's win
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:23 am ET) Outfielder Ryan Braun went 3 for 3 at the plate to help lead the Brewers to a 11-0 win over the Braves on Friday.

Braun also drove in four runs during the game, two of which came in the first inning when he hit a two-run home run off Eric Stults.

Braun is 8 for 20 with three home runs and 11 RBI in his last six games. During that time, he has raised his average from .252 to .273.


Yankees' Didi Gregorius, Garrett Jones hit first HRs of season
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:19 am ET) Yankees infielder Didi Gregorius and outfielder Garrett Jones hit their first home runs of the 2015 season in Friday night's 10-9 loss to the Rangers. 

Gregorius hit a three-run homer in the fourth inning. He's now hitting .217/.278/.278. Jones went yard with a three-run shot in the eighth inning that trimmed Texas' lead to two runs at the time. 

Jones is now slashing .171/.190/.317. 


Braves SP Eric Stults gives up seven runs in Friday's loss
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:17 am ET) Braves pitcher Eric Stults failed to get past the fourth inning during Friday's 11-0 loss to the Brewers.

Stults allowed seven runs on three hits over 3 2/3 innings of work. The seven runs were a season high for Stults. He also walked five batters and struck out five. His biggest mistake was surrendering a two-run home run to Ryan Braun in the first inning.

Stults has given up 12 runs in his last two starts and he has not pitched past the seventh inning in any of his eight starts this season. Stults started in place of Alex Wood, who was scratched due to an illness.


Braves expect Alex Wood (virus) to make next start
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:09 am ET) Although Braves pitcher Alex Wood was scratched from Friday's start, manager Fredi Gonzalez said he expects Wood to make his next start Wednesday at the Los Angeles Dodgers, reports the team's radio network.

A stomach virus caused Wood to miss Friday’s start.


Rangers 1B Mitch Moreland hits HR in second straight game
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:03 am ET) Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland hit his fourth home run of the season in Friday night's 10-9 win over the Yankees. 

For Moreland, it's the second consecutive game he's hit a homer as he also hit one in Thursday's win over the Red Sox. Moreland, who went 2 for 4 against the Yankees, has now recorded a hit in six consecutive games. 

Moreland is slashing .321/.394/.543 for the season. 


Rangers' Prince Fielder goes yard twice in win over Yankees
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/22/2015) Rangers designated hitter Prince Fielder hit two home runs during Friday night's 10-9 win over the Yankees. 

Fielder had a huge game, going 2 for 5 from the plate with four RBI and two runs scored. His first home run came in the third inning and also scored Delino DeShields and Shin-Soo Choo. He then came back in the seventh to hit a solo homer. 

This gives Fielder seven home runs for the season. This is the third time in his past five games that Fielder has recorded a multi-hit game. 

Fielder is now slashing .341/.397/.521 this season. 


Marlins place Henderson Alvarez, Mat Latos on disabled list
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/22/2015) After throwing five innings during Friday's 8-5 loss to the Orioles, the Marlins placed pitcher Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day disabled list, the team announced.

Alvarez is suffering from right shoulder inflammation. During Friday's start, Alvarez allowed six runs (four earned) on six hits. He struck out two batters and walked four. He is now 0-4 with a 6.45 ERA. Prior to Friday's start, it was revealed that Alvarez had been pitching with a torn UCL for years.

In addition to Alvarez, the team also placed starting pitcher Mat Latos on the 15-day disabled list Friday. Latos is dealing with left knee inflammation. He surrendered six runs during his last start Thursday.

The team is expected to call up pitchers Andre Rienzo and Vin Mazzaro from Triple-A on Saturday, reports the Miami Herald


 
 
 
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