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Reality Check: Second half studs and duds

Senior Fantasy Writer
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I have an admission to make to all the Fantasy purists out there: I've never been a buy-low, sell-high kind of guy.

No doubt, it's better than selling low and buying high, but I typically don't make trades to exploit someone else's faulty perceptions. It rarely works outside of April, and most experienced Fantasy owners don't fall for it even then.

Plus, if I had tried it this April, it would have backfired. I wasn't so much believing in Chris Davis then.

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And he's hardly the first player to fool me. So many factors go into a player's progression or regression that assessing him solely on his track record, pedigree or BABIP is tricky, to put it delicately. At some point, a season has to speak for itself. With more than half of this one behind us, I'm willing to believe that what we've seen so far is more or less what we'll continue to see.

But even so, I detect a few stragglers -- players who, for one reason or another, haven't shown us their true colors. And while I don't stake my season on it, I do stay alert for the right opportunity to act on that hunch.

So who fits the bill? I have here a group of 30, listed alphabetically. Let's just call them my likes and dislikes for the second half.

You don't need to read any more into it than that. Not every "like" is preferable to every "dislike." I'm not making sweeping changes to my rosters based on those labels. I just think everyone else values these players differently than I do.

If you want to use this list as a guide for buying low and selling high I won't stop you, but I do urge caution. Buying low doesn't mean buying at all costs and selling high doesn't mean taking whatever you can get. Your best bet for context is to consult my rest-of-season rankings. Perception influences them to some degree, but my preferences still take precedence.

Like: Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals
Adams was more highly regarded than both Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter coming up through the minors and, with a .316 batting average and .917 OPS in part-time duty, needs regular at-bats to follow in their footsteps as an out-of-nowhere Fantasy stud. Matt Holliday's strained hamstring is the start of what figures to be an injury-riddled second half for the Cardinals' aging corner outfield duo.

Dislike: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
The most amazing part about Alvarez's first hot streak of 2013 is that it still hasn't ended. Since April 18, he's batting .278 with 24 homers and a .925 OPS. And yet he's striking out more than once every three at-bats. He won't avoid last year's pitfalls that way. Most likely, an especially big one is on the horizon.

Like: Chris Archer, SP, Rays
The only way Archer managed to survive his high walk rate earlier this season was by giving up so few hits. That had to change eventually, right? Well, it did, but not in the way you'd think. In his final two starts before All-Star break, he issued no walks and still gave up only eight hits. That speaks to not only his growth, but also his stuff.

Dislike: Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
Matt Holliday may be Matt Adams' ticket to everyday at-bats right now, but Beltran figures to be the more frequent one in the second half as a 36-year-old with a history of injuries. Even if he manages to grind out another 65 games, he's liable to hit .236 like he did in the second half last year, when he battled hand, back and knee issues.

Like: Rex Brothers, RP, Rockies
The Rockies drafted Brothers with the intention of making him a closer, and now, in his third big-league season, he has a 0.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 43 appearances, making him as closer-ready as a reliever can be. Only Rafael Betancourt, a free agent to be, stands in his way, and he'll quickly become expendable if the Rockies' slide continues.

Like: Billy Butler, 1B, Royals
In the four years leading up to this one, Butler hit a combined .306, with a low mark of .291 in 2011. His strikeout rate is exactly the same as it was last year, and at age 27, he's still in the thick of his prime. So even if you believe his 29 homers last year were a fluke, you can't expect him to keep hitting just .271.

Like: Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
Though I never bought into Castro as a 25-homer or 30-steal guy, now that expectations for him have come back down to earth, I kind of like him. One thing both his pedigree and track record suggest he should do is hit for average, and his 23-for-76 (.303) stretch in his last 18 games suggests he's on his way to doing so.

Dislike: Bartolo Colon, SP, Athletics
With the notable exception of Randy Johnson, who was a freak in many ways, pitchers in their 40s don't throw 200-plus innings. Colon hasn't since 2005. The last chance he had (thanks to last year's suspension) was 2011, and he battled injuries the entire second half. You'll take what you can get from him, but you shouldn't expect it to last.

Dislike: Michael Cuddyer, OF, Rockies
Granted, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz disproved the players-don't-set-career-highs-in-their-mid-30s adage last year, but Cuddyer's .330 batting average is about 50 points higher than his previous high, and his .960 OPS is about 100 points higher. Coors Field or not, that's ridiculous, and his .244 batting average so far in July may be the start of a regression.

Like: Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks
Imagine Starling Marte with all of his speed and extra-base power, but with the walk rate of Shin-Soo Choo. That's what Eaton's minor-league numbers suggest he could be. Granted, he has impediments to those numbers, not the least of which is his continuing rehabilitation from a tricky elbow injury, but the potential has me plenty motivated to get him on my roster.

Dislike: Scott Feldman, SP, Orioles
Other than his ERA and WHIP, nothing points to Feldman being a dramatically changed pitcher from his many years in Texas, where he was league-average at best as a starter. His success with the Cubs may have had to do with him moving to the NL, but of course, the point is moot now that he's with the Orioles. He would have been a safe bet to regress even if he had stayed in Chicago, but now he's a near certainty.

Dislike: Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
I assumed innings wouldn't be an issue for Harvey after he threw about 170 between the majors and minors last year, but that was before I knew he'd be on pace for a Tom Seaver-like 230 this year. Everything that frustrated you about Jose Fernandez in the first half could be in play for Harvey in the second.

Like: Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
Maybe you take Headley's dreadful first half as a sign that his power surge last year was a fluke, but his struggles this year aren't a simple regression to the mean. Including his lackluster years with the Padres, he's a career .294 with an .816 OPS on the road. With the fences in at Petco Park this year, he should at least revert to that form when he gets his swing right.

Like: Jim Henderson, RP, Brewers
Though he seemed reluctant to do so, Brewers manager Ron Roenicke named Francisco Rodriguez his closer over Henderson a couple weeks ago, perhaps at the behest of a front office looking to sell at the trade deadline. Henderson is supposedly not on the market, which only fuels speculation. His performance as a closer before a hamstring injury in late May speaks for itself.

Like: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
Former hitting coach Jack Maloof had a misguided philosophy that discouraged his young sluggers from hitting for power at Kauffman Stadium. Before the Royals "reassigned" him, replacing him with the tandem of George Brett and Pedro Grifol, Hosmer hit .262 with one homer and a .654 OPS in 48 games. Since then, he has hit .308 with eight homers and an .866 OPS in 42 games. You do the math.

Dislike: Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners
At age 41, Ibanez has 24 home runs. The record for a 41-year-old is 29, set by Ted Williams in 1960. Ibanez -- by his own admission -- is no Ted Williams. He probably has the record in the bag now, but Father Time, if not his own track record, has to catch up to him sooner or later. Remember when he hit 22 homers in the first half as a mere 37-year-old in 2009? He hit only 12 (with a much lower batting average) in the second half that year.

Dislike: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
You know why Kendrick had only once hit more than 10 home runs prior to this season? Because his fly-ball rate is consistently one of the lowest in all of baseball. And that hasn't changed this year as he enters the second half with 11 homers. On a per-fly-ball basis, he's homering at nearly the same rate as Jose Bautista. Provided he hits more of those balls in play, you can expect his batting average to normalize as well.

Like: Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants
Lincecum's no-hitter Saturday wasn't the first ray of light in an otherwise gloomy season. In his previous seven starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Nobody expects ace numbers from him anymore, but with that strikeout rate, he's plenty useful if he continues to trend in this direction.

Dislike: Jeff Locke, SP, Pirates
Not everyone is a strikeout artist. Not everyone is a control freak. But the antithesis of both probably won't amount to much in the majors. Locke ranks 77th of the 92 qualifying pitchers in strikeout rate and 84th in walk rate. Yet he ranks second in ERA and 23rd in WHIP. Let's see what happens when those innings begin to pile up.

Dislike: Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
With his poor plate discipline, Machado will have to maintain an exceptionally high BABIP to keep his batting average over .300. It might not be such a big deal if his power was fully developed, but because he's mostly limited to doubles now, he may disappoint in the second half.

Like: Brad Miller, SS, Mariners
Some favorable hitter's environments may have inflated Miller's power numbers in the minors, but with seven walks, five doubles, two triples and two steals in 16 major-league contests, he's shown everything else will translate. He has a knack for putting bat on ball, demonstrating bat control readily apparent to the naked eye, which could make a poor man's Matt Carpenter in the second half.

Dislike: Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals
Between the majors and the minors last year, Miller threw 150 1/3 innings, which makes 180 a reasonable cutoff for this year if the Cardinals follow through on their intention of limiting his workload in the second half. Have all his five-inning outings because of shaky control recently frustrated you? Just wait for the early hooks when he's pitching well.

Dislike: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers
Peralta has managed to score the eighth-most Head-to-Head points among shortstops so far, but more because of his .303 batting average than his modest power numbers. The problem is he hadn't hit better than .299 in a season coming into this one, and he had a career low strikeout rate of 16.5 that year. His strikeout rate this year is the third-highest of his career.

Like: Martin Prado, 3B, Diamondbacks
With the exception of 2011, when he was plagued by a staph infection, Prado has hit .300 every full season in the big leagues. He still makes consistent contact and has enough power to keep defenses honest, so you can trust him to overcome whatever has held him back so far. His .314 batting average in his last 18 games may be the start of it.

Like: Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals
Between a torn ACL last year, a strained hamstring this year and the acquisition of Kurt Suzuki in between, Ramos hasn't had a chance to follow up a rookie season in which he hit 15 home runs in 389 at-bats, including six in his last 92. Now fully healthy and firmly ahead of Suzuki on the depth chart, he has hit .375 with a 1.019 OPS in nine games off the DL.

Dislike: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers
Nobody had much of a scouting report on Ryu coming into the season, which helped him compile a 1.14 WHIP and 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his first six starts and gave Fantasy owners, myself included, unrealistic expectations. In 12 starts since then, he has a Mark Buehrle-like 1.30 WHIP and 5.4 strikeouts per nine. Join me in thoroughly simmering down.

Like: Hector Santiago, SP, White Sox
With Dylan Axelrod coming off a six-start stretch that probably ranks among the worst in baseball history, Santiago is a pretty safe bet to stay in the rotation this time around. If he had compiled them without interruption, his 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter would make him something like another Gio Gonzalez.

Like: Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners
In 22 games since returning from the DL, Smoak has hit .333 (26 for 78) with five homers and a 1.018 OPS in 22 games, which you could dismiss as a hot streak if he didn't hit .282 with an .861 OPS in 26 games prior. He's back to walking like he did in his minors and has retooled his swing to produce more line drives. Hey, I've always liked the pedigree.

Like: Dan Straily, SP, Athletics
Straily has suffered from a disproportionately high ERA virtually all season long. His walk rate is low, and it's not like he's serving up a bunch of homers. His numbers just haven't recovered from a bumpy four-start stretch in late April and early May. Since then, he has a 2.83 ERA in nine starts, and in his last two, like in the minors, he was practically unhittable.

Dislike: Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles
Tillman is a decent pitcher who owes his 6-0 June more to good fortune than anything else. His skill-based ratios -- specifically, his 7.1 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings -- were as uninspiring as usual that month. Teammate Miguel Gonzalez averaged 7.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings in June and generally pitches deeper into games. Which would you rather own in Fantasy?

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Adam Ottavino earns first career save Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:45 pm ET) Rockies pitcher Adam Ottavino gave up one hit and struck out one in a scoreless 10th inning Wednesday to earn his first career save in his team's 6-4 win over the Cubs.

Ottavino was the pitcher of choice for the opportunity after LaTroy Hawkins tossed two innings in Tuesday's 16-inning marathon. He owns a 3.80 ERA and 49:12 K:BB ratio in 47 1/3 innings.


Dan Runzler heading to Japan after Triple-A release
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:42 pm ET) The Giants released pitcher Dan Runzler from Triple-A Fresno Wednesday so that he could sign with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan, the Associated Press reports.

Runzler hasn't pitched in the majors since making six appearances in 2012. He owned a 3.30 ERA and 53:36 K:BB ratio in 46 1/3 innings with Fresno heading into play Wednesday.


Rob Scahill picks up first win Wednesday vs. Cubs
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:39 pm ET) Rockies pitcher Rob Scahill earned a win Wednesday, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless ninth inning in his team's 6-4, 10-inning win over the Cubs.

Scahill (1-0) just joined the team Wednesday after the bullpen was taxed by a 16-inning game the previous night. He needed just 12 pitches to complete the bottom of the ninth inning, and his offense delivered two runs in the top of the 10th. Scahill owns a 5.68 ERA and 3:4 K:BB ratio in 6 1/3 innings.


Brett Anderson strikes out nine in no-decision vs. Cubs
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:36 pm ET) Rockies pitcher Brett Anderson didn't factor into Wednesday's decision after giving up two earned runs on 11 hits in seven innings while striking out nine and walking none in his team's 6-4 win over the Cubs.

Anderson was in line for a win before the bullpen blew an eighth-inning lead. It was his third straight quality start in the second half, and Anderson has surrendered just three earned runs in 20 1/3 innings during that stretch. He owns a 3.12 ERA and 27:13 K:BB ratio in 40 1/3 innings. Anderson is scheduled to face the Cubs again next Wednesday, this time at home.


Travis Wood strikes out career-high 11 batters Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:36 pm ET) Cubs pitcher Travis Wood wasn't a factor in the decision Wednesday, giving up four earned runs on eight hits and two walks in six innings and striking out a career-high 11 batters in his team's 6-4 loss to the Rockies.

Wood surrendered three runs in his first two innings to put himself in an early hole, then gave up another on an RBI double in the sixth. He hadn't topped seven strikeouts in a start since mid-April before posting his career-best mark Wednesday. Wood owns a 5.10 ERA and 108:55 K:BB ratio in 127 innings. He's scheduled to face the Rockies again Tuesday, this time in Colorado.


Josh Willingham homers, steals base Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:31 pm ET) Twins designated hitter Josh Willingham went 1 for 3 with a walk, a solo home run and a stolen base in his team's 3-2 loss to the Royals Wednesday.

Willingham's name has come up in trade rumors this month, but the team seems likely to hold on to him through the deadline, provided another team doesn't bowl them over with an offer. He has hit .223/.366/.436 with 11 home runs, 31 RBI and now one stolen base in 188 at-bats.


Greg Holland records 28th save Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:29 pm ET) Royals closer Greg Holland needed 28 pitches to pick up his 28th save Wednesday, issuing one walk and striking out two in a scoreless ninth inning to end his team's 3-2 win over the Twins.

Holland topped his previous season-high of 27 pitches in the outing but still managed to walk away with the save. He owns a 1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 60:12 K:BB ratio in 39 2/3 innings.


Report: Ryan Ludwick available in trade talks
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:26 pm ET) The Reds are telling teams that outfielder Ryan Ludwick is available to be traded, USA Today reports.

Ludwick has a $7.5 million salary this year and a $9 million mutual option for 2015 that carries a $4.5 millino buyout. He has hit .261/.326/.394 with six home runs and 27 RBI in 249 at-bats.


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(11:23 pm ET) Twins pitcher Phil Hughes took a loss in a quality start Wednesday, giving up three earned runs on seven hits and one walk in six innings and striking out five in his team's 3-2 defeat against the Royals.

Hughes (10-8) had to leave his last start after just three innings when he was hit by a line drive, but he was able to come back Wednesday and pitch a solid game, though he took his third straight loss after giving up three runs in an ugly sixth inning. Hughes owns a 4.12 ERA and 118:13 K:BB ratio in 137 2/3 innings. He's scheduled to face the Padres Tuesday.


Danny Duffy walks five in win vs. Twins Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11:23 pm ET) Royals pitcher Danny Duffy picked up a win Wednesday after giving up one earned run on four hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings while striking out four in his team's 3-2 victory over the Twins.

Duffy (6-10) retired six of the seven batters he faced in the first two innings but gave up a solo home run to the other. Despite constantly getting into trouble over the next four innings, he was able to prevent any runs from scoring. Duffy owns a 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 80:39 K:BB ratio in 104 innings. He's scheduled to face the Diamondbacks Tuesday.


 
 
 
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