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By the Numbers: Buy or sell, Deadline Edition

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While the major leagues' trade deadline has come and gone, many Fantasy leaguers still have time to get in their final wave of deals. Though we are four months into the season, some players have recent or full-season stat lines that aren't indicative of what they are likely to do from here on out. Looking at past trends, a handful of players stand out as prime candidates to target or trade away in your quest to march your Fantasy squad up the standings over the weeks to come.

I'll be identifying the players whom I see as the best ones to acquire or shed as your league's trade deadline draws near, and I'll explain why they need to be on your radar. Since these are just the top targets, every position won't be covered, but just maybe, these suggestions will inspire a deadline deal that can fuel your team's late-season run.

Top Sell Candidates

Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: Thanks to Puig's scorching-hot performance upon his callup, he continues to be started in nearly all leagues on CBSSports.com. After slugging .713 in June, that mark has fallen to .436 in July, and that latter stat doesn't scream, "must-start outfielder." After 50 games with the Dodgers and 63 minor league games, we still don't really know what kind of a hitter Puig is, but given that he still owns a .364/.410/.579 slash line, it's safe to say that many owners are overvaluing him. Let one of them take him off your hands in exchange for more proven talent, especially if it's of the elite or near-elite variety.

Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers: Coming into this season, I liked Martin as a sleeper because he looked to be a low-cost source of steals, power and a high batting average. He did come cheaply and has delivered 20 steals, but he's fallen well short of a .300 average and may not get as many as 10 homers. You may be able to convince a trade partner that Martin is poised for a turnaround, as his average was in the .290s earlier in July. In actuality, his average was boosted by a two-month stretch in which he boasted a .376 BABIP. While Martin has the speed to pile up infield hits, that rate of hits on balls in play would be almost impossible for him to sustain. Since he hasn't shown much improvement in his contact skills, it's best to deal him now before his batting average and run production wither even more.

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Marlon Byrd, OF, Mets: Byrd's surprising power surge doesn't have to end, but at some point, it will come at a price. He has been taking an aggressive approach, swinging more often and generating more flyballs, but also many more strikeouts. Byrd has been helped, not only by his 17 home runs, but also by his .284 batting average, but that has been buoyed by his .351 average on grounders. That stat might be believable coming from speedy Michael Bourn or Starling Marte, but not from Byrd. If you own Byrd in a standard mixed league, it probably won't be long before he's not worth starting, so let him be someone else's headache in the weeks to come.

Junior Lake, SS/OF, Cubs: With Alfonso Soriano gone, Lake's role in the Cubs' outfield is cemented, but playing time alone doesn't make the 23-year-old rookie all that attractive. He has a history of poor plate discipline and middling power, even for someone who is shortstop-eligible. He still has a healthy-looking stat line due to the six-game hot streak (.519, 2 HRs) that started his big-league career, but since then, he has gone 4 for 31 (.129) with no extra-base hits. Though he only has one steal in four attempts, Lake could be a nice addition for deep-league teams that need speed, but there's little reason to expect much else. If you could swap Junior Lake for some Junior Mints, that would be a pretty good deal. (Yes, I'm exaggerating, but you get the idea.)

Bartolo Colon, SP, Athletics: Colon is a superb control pitcher who is backed by a solid offense, but it's an absolute fluke that he ranks as a top 15 starting pitcher in both standard Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats. He's of absolutely no use for strikeouts, and his season-to-date value is largely predicated on a high level of run support (5.5 runs per nine innings) and an 80 percent strand rate that is due to recede. Find an owner who buys Colon as a 20-game winner with a sub-3.00 ERA, and you could find yourself with a great deal.

Chris Archer, SP, Rays: If Archer's rotation spot needed solidifying, Matt Moore's trip to the disabled list with elbow soreness just might have done the trick. Even if you weren't worried about Archer's job security given Alex Cobb's eventual return, there are reasons to sell him. He has yet to get strikeouts with consistency, and while he has improved his control, Archer has a minor league history of high walk rates and has had sporadic command issues this season. Unless Archer starts showing the ability to get batters to swing and miss on a more regular basis, his ERA and WHIP look poised to balloon, as both are being helped by a .220 BABIP that is a sure bet to rise. It's time to deal him before that happens.

Top Buy Candidates

Jason Heyward, OF, Braves: Early this season, Heyward's plate discipline was much better than it had been in the past, but because he was mysteriously lacking power, he didn't have much to show for it. Heyward started to heat up in early June, and he's taken his hitting up a notch since that month's final week, posting a .838 OPS over his last 25 games. While Heyward's stolen base output qualifies as a disappointment, he has shown in his recent stretch -- as well as last season -- that he is capable of being a power hitter and run producer. With this season's reduction in strikeouts, he could also be a threat to hit for average. Given that he is starting in only about three-fourths of our leagues, too many owners seem to be focused on his season-to-date stats rather than the potential he has shown recently, as well as in 2012.

Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs: It's been a long, frustrating season for Castro's owners, and many of them may have run out of patience. If so, they have given up too soon, as he has made some strides in recent weeks. While he's still striking out more often than he has in previous seasons, he's recovered somewhat from a strikeout binge in June, and he's getting hits on balls in play at a rate more in line with his history. After compiling a .277 BABIP through July 2, he's been hitting .345 on balls in play since then. Castro has also been hitting with more power. His Isolated Power was a lowly .094 on July 2, but he has a .158 mark in the 26 games since. Castro's been better over the past four weeks, and his past seasons have shown that there is still room for further improvement. Now is the time to pursue Castro -- especially if you're anticipating losing Everth Cabrera or Jhonny Peralta to a suspension -- before his irritated owners notice he is on the way back to being a top 10 shortstop.

Chase Headley, 3B, Padres: Like Heyward, Headley has been benched in many of our leagues, but as he has ramped up his production over the last few weeks, his activation rate remains stagnant. Over his last 23 games, Headley has hit .289 with 10 doubles and two home runs. He probably won't maintain a batting average that high, given his .415 BABIP rate over that span, but he's been an above-average hitter on balls in play over his career, so the regression may not be dramatic. He should certainly continue to improve his .234/.333/.376 season-to-date slash line, but if his current owner is focused on those numbers, you could wind up getting Headley at a bargain price.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Athletics: Donaldson's production swooned in July, but his skill set has remained essentially the same. He didn't suddenly become a human windmill or an impatient slap hitter; Donaldson merely got fewer hits on balls in play, resulting in fewer doubles and singles. With a .316 batting average through the end of June, Donaldson probably overperformed in the first half (particularly with his 22 doubles in 81 games), but his minor league numbers suggest that he can hit for power with a decent average. Given that Donaldson hadn't established himself as a productive major leaguer prior to this season, you might find an owner who is nervous about his .233/.340/.356 slash line for July and willing to deal him at a discount.

Patrick Corbin, SP, Diamondbacks: Many of Corbin's owners won't be willing to sell low on him, given his 12-2 record and 2.24 ERA, but others might look at his advanced stats and think it's time to unload the first-time All-Star. Corbin has been helped out by favorable BABIP (.251) and strand (80 percent) rates, and his K/9 ratio is a pedestrian 7.7. However, Corbin has been throwing harder this season, and since mid-May, that has translated into sizable upticks in his swinging strike and strikeout rates. That has been especially true over his last eight starts, in which he has struck out 56 batters in 57 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, he continues to be a good control pitcher who can help with WHIP. If you can land Corbin, you have a good chance of getting much more than just a so-so strikeout pitcher who has lucked into good ratios and a high win total.

Homer Bailey, SP, Reds: While looking at this season's advanced metrics might be misleading in evaluating Corbin, they could be a big help in assessing Bailey's true value. He has made impressive leaps in his K/9 (from 7.3 in '12 to 9.0 in '13), swinging strike (from 10 to 13 percent) and ground ball (from 46 to 51 percent) rates, and he hasn't sacrificed his low BB/9 rate. The biggest blemish on Bailey's record this season is a 24 percent line drive rate, but that's an unstable stat that could easily correct itself over the coming weeks. If that happens, Bailey should see reductions in his 3.55 ERA and an already-low 1.14 WHIP. He should also receive more than the 3.4 runs of support per nine innings he's been getting, which will further help to improve his 6-10 record. Though Bailey is starting in only 64 percent of our leagues, he is worthy of starting on a weekly basis in practically any format. It appears he has many owners who are underappreciating him and could be willing to make a deal.

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Player News
Angels SP Hector Santiago fails to go three innings Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(2:00 am ET) Angels pitcher Hector Santiago struggled throughout his start Monday against the A's, which the Angels lost 11-5.

Santiago received the loss after allowing five runs on four hits over 2 2/3 innings. He also struck out four and walked three.

Santiago is winless in his last eight starts.


A's pitcher Felix Doubront earns win Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:56 am ET) Athletics pitcher Felix Doubront did not receive a quality start Monday against the Angels, but he did receive the win.

Doubront allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings of work. He also struck out five, but walked four. He is now 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA.

Monday was his seventh start of the season and first win since July 7.


A's pitcher Evan Scribner leaves Monday's game with injury
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:52 am ET) Athletics pitcher Evan Scribner was forced to leave Monday's game against the Angels after suffering an undisclosed injury, reports the Associated Press. Scribner left in the ninth inning after recording one strikeout.

Cardinals' Matt Adams suffers minor setback
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:31 am ET) Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams suffered a setback from his quad injury when he tweaked a muscle in his leg, reports Fox Sports Midwest.

The issue is considered minor and the team is still targeting a mid-September return for Adams. He has been out since late May with a right quad injury.


Rangers SP Colby Lewis takes loss Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:03 am ET) Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis was not sharp during Monday's 7-0 loss to the Padres.

Lewis (14-7) received the loss after allowing six runs (five earned) over 5 2/3 innings of work. He also struck out two and walked two. His ERA is now 4.50.

Lewis has now lost his last two outings with no quality starts.


Padres SP Tyson Ross earns win Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:57 am ET) Padres pitcher Tyson Ross was masterful during his start against the Rangers on Monday, which the Padres won 7-0.

Ross did not surrender a run and only allowed three hits over seven innings of work. He also struck out seven and walked two. He was able to lower his ERA to 3.27.

Ross is 2-0 in his last four outings with two quality starts.


Giants DFA Ryan Lollis
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:52 am ET) The Giants designated outfielder Ryan Lollis for assignment, the team announced. The move was made to make room for Alejandro De Aza. Lollis hit .167 in 12 at-bats this season.

Allen Craig among September call-ups for Red Sox
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:47 am ET) The Red Sox will bring up outfielder Allen Craig on Tuesday when their roster expands, reports The Boston Globe.

Craig was demoted earlier this season after hitting .135 with one home run and two RBI in 24 games. Along with Craig, the team also called up Ryan Cook, Noe Ramirez and Sandy Leon.


Mariners trade Justin Ruggiano to Dodgers
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:39 am ET) The Dodgers acquired outfielder Justin Ruggiano from the Mariners for cash considerations or a player to be named later, the Dodgers announced.

Ruggiano was playing in Triple-A after hitting .214 with two home runs in 36 games earlier this season.


D-Backs RP Brad Ziegler receives loss Monday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:31 am ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Brad Ziegler could not record the final three outs in Monday's 5-4 loss to the Rockies.

Ziegler entered in the ninth inning with a 4-1 lead, but he allowed four runs on four hits over 2/3 innings. He also struck out one and walked one. His ERA increased to 2.48.

After the game, Ziegler revealed he suffered an ankle injury during the appearance and will receive treatment Tuesday, reports MLB.com.


 
 
 
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