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By the Numbers: Rookie hitters worth keeping

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As we plunge into the final quarter of the season, it's time for Fantasy owners in the title hunt to hunker down and fine tune their teams for this year's final stretch.

This column is for all of the other Fantasy owners -- the ones who are out of the running this season.

Even if you're out of contention for a title this year, it's too early to tune out. Particularly for owners in keeper leagues, there is still much to consider. If you have a trade deadline still looming, you need to think about which players to keep for next year and which you can deal for potential keepers. While this column won't deal with most of the players you'd likely consider for your protection spots, it will cover an important subset of that group: this year's rookie crop.

I have identified the 14 rookie hitters most worthy of consideration as keepers. (I will address rookie pitchers in a separate column.) Not all of these players are relevant in every keeper format. Those at the top of the list are worth considering in leagues where you are allowed a relatively small number of keepers, while most of the others are better suited for dynasty leagues with long keeper lists. In ranking them, I've looked at both their rookie season performances as well as their minor league resumes. In many cases, a player who hasn't met expectations this year is still worthy of keeper consideration because of the skill set he has displayed in the minors. Also, some of the players made this list, not only because of the credentials they established when they were prospects, but also because behind some of the less inspiring Fantasy stats put up by this year's rookie class lie some encouraging skill indicators.

Note: All season-to-date stats are current for games played through Monday, Aug. 12.

1. Wil Myers, OF, Rays: Myers has come as advertised, and after a slow start power-wise he's delivering a high batting average and on-base percentage with extra-base hits. He is also 5 for 6 in stolen base attempts, so while Myers didn't have a history of high steals totals in the minors, he did have a 75 percent success rate (36 for 48). Rays manager Joe Maddon likes to have his players run, so in addition to helping with batting average, run production and home runs, Myers could also bring some moderate steals potential to the table. In other words, he is developing into an all-category threat and a must-keep outfielder.

2. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: It's highly likely Puig will never have another season in which he hits .475 on balls in play, but even with some serious regression, he's shown that he can be counted on to help in most categories. Puig's speed could enable him to chip in with 20-plus steals over a full season, but it also means he can boost his average with infield hits. He already has 19 of them in just 232 at-bats, which gives him a rate that falls just shy of Jean Segura's (39 infield hits in 457 at-bats). Whether Puig will produce power like he did in June (.277 Isolated Power) or like he has since (.175) or at some level in between remains to be seen, but he's enough of all-around producer to be worth keeping in just about any format.

3. Jurickson Profar, 2B/3B/SS, Rangers: Profar has been atop many owners' keeper lists in dynasty leagues due to his performances in the minors. He showed the ability to make contact, hit for power (at least by shortstop standards), draw walks and steal bases, all at ages that were young for the levels he was playing. Those skills haven't transferred to the majors in his rookie season, as he's turned in a lackluster .245/.311/.344 slash line with no stolen bases. Maybe it's because Profar hasn't had a steady role, but given that he is still just 20, he simply may not have been ready for the majors. It's certainly too early in Profar's career to judge him by this season's numbers. He should find a regular role next season, and with a season's worth of growing pains behind him, Profar could take a big step forward in 2014.

4. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals: Though Adams has had to scrounge for playing time, he's done exactly what his minor league record suggested he would: hit home runs and provide a decent batting average. Assuming the Cardinals don't re-sign Carlos Beltran, that would open up an outfield spot for Allen Craig, which in turn would leave first base open for Adams. With everyday at-bats, Adams could hit as many as 30 homers while replicating his .280s batting average.

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5. Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Mariners: Franklin seemed to be on the road to becoming a points-league dream-come-true: a middle infielder with doubles and triples power who could make contact and get on base. So instead, he's become a whiff-happy power hitter, though so far in August, Franklin hasn't hit much of anything. His recent slump has taken a toll on his stats, but as recent as July 30, Franklin owned a .276/.338/.492 slash line. Whether Franklin continues to lean towards being a home run hitter or he reverts to his prior form, he will stack up well against much of the pool of second basemen next year and beyond.

6. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Nationals: With a limited minor league track record, it was hard to know what to expect from Rendon's rookie campaign. At best, owners could have expected a high batting average and on-base percentage with power, but none of that has panned out. Most disappointingly, Rendon has drawn walks in only 7 percent of his plate appearances and hit flyballs on 29 percent of his hit balls. Owners can find encouragement in Rendon's 30 percent line drive rate, and his 21 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his minor league norms. While Rendon hasn't provided as much value as Franklin has this season, there's time for the 23-year-old to match or surpass the Mariners' second baseman.

7. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies: Arenado's uneven power numbers as a prospect made it questionable to assume he would be a home run threat as a big leaguer, even with him getting to play home games at Coors Field. Sure enough, he's hit only nine home runs in his first 95 games in the majors, but with an elevated line drive rate, he's been able to amass 20 doubles to date. More homers could still come, and so could a high batting average, as Arenado has struck out in 13 percent of his at-bats. A .165 average on grounders has sunk his overall batting average, but that should improve. Arenado hasn't done enough to stand out among a crowd of talented, young third basemen, but the promise is still there to make him a worthwhile keeper in dynasty leagues.

8. Brad Miller, 2B/SS, Mariners: Miller came to the Mariners with a similar profile to that of Rendon, and he's wound up producing at a similar level to the Nationals' young infielder. He has drawn walks at a 10 percent rate and produced eight doubles and four triples in 152 at-bats through Monday, but a lack of home run power (his two homers on Tuesday notwithstanding) and a pedestrian .303 BABIP have left him well short of expectations produced by his minor league stats. While Miller was not a big-time flyball hitter as a prospect, he should improve on his current 25 percent flyball rate and .034 flyball BABIP. There are enough positive signs, despite some underwhelming surface stats, to make Miller a player to protect for the long-term future.

9. Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins: Arcia's 2013 stats might not look like anything special, but it helps to keep in mind that he's just 22. Though he's moved through the Twins' system quickly, Arcia has shown good power at all levels. He hasn't demonstrated great contact skills, but because he rarely pops out, Arcia has hit .300 or higher at each of his last three minor league stops. He's hit just .264 for Minnesota, but Arcia has struck out in nearly one-third of his at-bats, and he should be able to reduce that rate dramatically. Diminished expectations could mean that Arcia slips through the cracks in drafts next year, but he could make for a great late-round sleeper in redraft leagues.

10. Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, Padres: Which Gyorko is the real deal...the one who hit .281 with moderate power in two stints in Double-A or the one who tore up the Pacific Coast League last year? Prior to going on the disabled list with a groin injury back in June, he looked like he could develop into the elite hitter we saw in Triple-A. Since his activation in mid-July, Gyorko has hit .143 with three home runs and two doubles in 77 at-bats. He's been striking out at a rate that is out of character, but it's not clear if he's dealing with the aftermath of an injury or adjustments made by the pitchers who are facing him. Gyorko could very well pick up where he left off earlier this season, but with an uneven minor league record supporting him, it's not safe to assume that he's on the road to stardom.

11. Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers: As a minor leaguer, Martin showed signs of being able to produce steals, a high batting average and on-base percentage, and double-digit home run power. It appears he will not deliver on anything other than the stolen bases this year, but even with a .326 on-base percentage, he's on pace to swipe 37 bags. Because Martin's strikeout and walk rates in the minors were generally better than the what he's posted this year -- a 22 percent strikeout rate (per at-bat) and 6 percent walk rate (per plate appearance) -- there is reason to think that he could raise his batting average and on-base percentage next season. That would help Martin to add to his stolen base and run totals. Even if the extra-base power doesn't come, that's enough to make Martin worthy of consideration for a keeper spot.

12. Evan Gattis, C/OF, Braves: Gattis' production has slowed down markedly since the end of May, and even while seeing regular playing time in the outfield during B.J. Upton's recent disabled list stint, he hit just .244 with one extra-base hit in 11 starts. That could give the Braves a reason to bring the resurgent Brian McCann back on a new contract next season, relegating Gattis to another year as a backup. That's probably the worst-case scenario, while there is still a chance Gattis becomes a regular with 25-to-30 home run power. It would be tempting to pursue that upside, and in leagues that allow a large number of keepers, there may be little risk. However, in more limited keeper formats, Gattis' extended slump raises enough doubt to make him a risky keeper choice.

13. Darin Ruf, 1B/OF, Phillies: Finishing second-to-last on this list isn't a bad thing; Ruf still ranks ahead of Marcell Ozuna, Jose Iglesias and all the others who didn't even make the cut. I don't question Ruf's power, even though he only hit seven home runs in 83 games at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Iron Pigs' home park is not that amenable to homers, but Ruf now has Citizens Bank Park as his home. While Ruf should be a reliable power source with regular playing time, he'll be fortunate to hit for a decent average like he's done this year. He simply strikes out too often and has been relying upon a 28 percent line drive rate and .400 batting average on grounders, neither of which looks sustainable. The strong potential for a low average and lack of upside due to his age (he turned 27 last month) keep me from ranking Ruf higher.

14. Yan Gomes, C/1B, Indians: Both in his minor league career and in a brief trial with the Blue Jays last season, Gomes showed he has pop in his bat, but his .310 batting average with the Indians has been a pleasant surprise. A 19 percent strikeout rate and .346 BABIP have made that mark possible, though it's not a given that he can sustain either level. Gomes has worked his way into more playing time, but as long as Carlos Santana is behind the plate, there is a limit to how many games he can start. Gomes' power makes him a tempting keeper at catcher, but the uncertainty around his role limits his value.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .

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Player News
Report: Padres continue to talk to Braves about Justin Upton
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:15 am ET) The Padres continue to talk to the Braves about outfielder Justin Upton, according to Bleacher Report's Scott Miller.

Despite the fact that the Padres acquired both Matt Kemp and Wil Myers on Thursday, the team may not be done yet. It's unclear where Upton would fit into the team's plans, but he would be a clear upgrade over whoever the club is planning to start in center field. If the team were to acquire Upton, one of that trio would be pushed into action in center. While Kemp has experience at the position, he's not considered a strong defender. 

The 27-year-old Upton is coming off a season in which he hit .270/.342/.491 over 566 at-bats.


Report: Rangers showing interest in Brandon Beachy
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Rangers have shown interest in pitcher Brandon Beachy, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Beachy is coming off Tommy John surgery, but multiple teams are said to have interest in signing him. The 28-year-old has a 3.23 career ERA over 267 2/3 innings, but underwent his second Tommy John surgery in March. Beachy's representative, Robert Martin said Beachy has multiple offers, but doesn't believe a decision is imminent. 


Report: Athletics sending Derek Norris to Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Athletics have agreed to trade catcher Derek Norris to the Padres, according to the New York Daily News.

After dealing Yasmani Grandal to Los Angeles in the Matt Kemp deal, the Padres were in need of a new backstop. It didn't take long for them to replace Grandal, as the team acquired Norris shortly after the Kemp deal went through.

Pitcher Seth Streich will also head to the Padres in the deal, according to FoxSports.com The 23-year-old posted a 3.16 ERA over 114 innings in High A last season.

The 25-year-old Norris is coming off a season in which he hit .270/.361/.403 over 385 at-bats. Norris is under team control through the 2018 season.

The Athletics are expected to receive pitchers Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez in the deal, according to Yahoo! The 24-year-old Alvarez posted a 1.25 ERA over 43 1/3 innings at Double-A last year.

Hahn, 25, posted a 3.07 ERA over 73 1/3 innings in the majors last year. He was excellent in Double-A, posting a 1.91 ERA in 42 1/3 innings before being called up.


Padres, Rays and Nationals complete Wil Myers trade
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Padres, Rays and Nationals have completed a trade that will send Wil Myers to San Diego, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

The deal had been in the works for a few days, but was finally agreed to late Thursday night. Myers, 24, will head to the Padres in the deal. He hit .222/.294/.320 over 325 at-bats with the Rays last season. Myers also missed time due to a wrist injury. 

The Padres will also receive catcher Ryan Hanigan and pitchers Gerardo Reyes and Jose Castillo in the deal. 

Tampa Bay will receive outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Travis Ott from the Nationals. Souza, 25, hit .345/.427/.577 in 357 at-bats spread over three levels last year. 

The Rays will also receive catcher Rene Rivera, first baseman Jake Bauers and pitcher Burch Smith from San Diego.

Washington is set to acquire pitcher Joe Ross from San Diego. The team will also receive infielder Trea Turner in the deal. Turner was a 2014 draft pick, and cannot be traded until midseason, so he's currently considered a player to be named later.


Phillies to send Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Phillies have completed a trade that will send shortstop Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. News that the deal was finally going through was initially reported by Yahoo!

The deal has been in place for some time, but was dependent on a separate Dodgers deal going through. The Dodgers will send pitcher Zach Eflin to Philadelphia as part of the Rollins trade, but first needed to acquire Eflin from the Padres in the Matt Kemp deal. The Dodgers and Padres finally reached an agreement late Thursday night, meaning Eflin could finally be sent to Philadelphia. The 20-year-old Eflin posted a 3.80 ERA in 128 innings at High A last year.

Rollins, 36, hit .243/.323/.394 over 538 at-bats last season. He's in the final year of his contract, and is set to make $11 million next year.


Dodgers complete Matt Kemp deal with Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Dodgers and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send outfielder Matt Kemp to San Diego, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. News that the deal had finally come together was first reported by Yahoo!

The trade has been in the works for some time, but was dependent on Kemp passing a physical. It was reported early Thursday that Kemp's physical revealed arthritic hips. The Padres had to to figure out insurance on the contract, which is why it took so long for the deal to go through.

Catcher Tim Federowicz will also head to San Diego in the deal. The Dodgers will send $32 million over as well. 

In return, Los Angeles is set to receive catcher Yasmani Grandal and pitcher Joe Weiland and Zach Eflin. Eflin is expected to be flipped to Philadelphia for shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

The 30-year-old Kemp hit .287/.346/.506 over 541 at-bats last year. Kemp is set to earn a little over $21 million in each of the next five seasons. 


Rockies seeking veteran right-handers to fill out rotation
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Rockies are looking at a number of veteran right-handers to fill out the rotation, according to MLB.com.

Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, Josh Johnson and Kyle Kendrick have all been considered by the club. With Johnson reportedly signing a deal with the Padres, that leaves the other three as options for the club. Though the team is said to be interested in all three players, it has not engaged in serious conversations with any of them. 


Cubs agree to sign Anthony Carter
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Cubs have signed reliever Anthony Carter to a minor-league deal, according to MLBTradeRumors.com.

Carter spent last season in Japan, pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters. He posted a 3.97 ERA over 45 1/3 innings. 


Padres to sign Josh Johnson
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Padres are set to sign pitcher Josh Johnson to a one-year deal, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. Yahoo initially reported the two sides were on the verge of a deal.

Johnson will make a base salary under $2 million, but can earn as much as $8 million due to incentives. Given his recent injury issues, it's assumed those incentives will revolve around both his numbers and his ability to remain healthy. Johnson signed with San Diego last season, but was unable to pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The team declined his option during the offseason, but showed interest in re-signing Johnson to a lesser deal.

Johnson posted a 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings with Toronto in 2013. 


A's C Stephen Vogt expects to be ready for opening day
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Athletics catcher Stephen Vogt believes he'll be ready for opening day, according to MLB.com.

Vogt had foot surgery in October, but had his walking boot removed Thursday. Vogt admitted that he may not be 100 percent by spring training, but said he expects to be ready for opening day. After playing multiple positions due to the injury last season, Vogt said he's eager to get behind the plate again. 

The 30-year-old Vogt hit .279/.321/.431 over 269 at-bats last year. 


 
 
 
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