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Week 22 Pitching Forecaster

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A week ago, the uncertainty around the Braves' and Rays' rotations was wreaking havoc with Fantasy rosters, and many owners are still looking for answers as we approach Fantasy Week 22 (Aug. 26- Sept. 1).

With Brandon Beachy going on the 15-day disabled list with tightness in his elbow, the Braves' rotation suddenly got less crowded, so the team has fewer means to push back Alex Wood's second start. Still, with the club having concerns over several of their starters' innings, owners shouldn't be surprised if the Braves find a way to adjust their rotation. Just maybe newly-acquired Freddy Garcia will find his way into some spot starts, possibly beginning as soon as this week.

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As for the Rays' situation, it appears Matt Moore (elbow) won't be ready to return in Week 22, as he will pitch a sim game on Saturday, and according to the Tampa Tribune, he will follow that up with another sim game start or a rehab outing. With Moore still out of commission, there is a potential two-start week waiting to be claimed, and while Roberto Hernandez is penciled in to start Tuesday, the Rays have not announced whether they will use Hernandez again on Sunday or if they will turn to someone else.

In addition to Beachy, Matt Cain (forearm) and Jake Westbrook (back) went on the DL on Friday, but their respective replacements -- Yusmeiro Petit (@COL) and Tyler Lyons (CIN, @PIT) -- should only be considered in deeper leagues.

While you may have some injuries to contend with as you set your rotations, at least you may not have to spend much time sifting through your free agent two-start options for the coming week. In this week's rankings, I have included only three two-start pitchers between Nos. 50 and 70. The waiver options are generally not very appealing, so you're probably best off using the starters you already have or seeking quality one-start alternatives.

Monday update: If you are the owner of an A's starter not named Dan Straily, you need to watch the A's rotation announcements closely. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, both Brett Anderson and Bartolo Colon are joining the team Monday, and each could make a start in Week 22. While A.J. Griffin and Straily are listed as starters for Monday and Wednesday, respectively, the rest of the week is up for grabs.

Tony Cingrani had been included in this week's initial top 70 rankings, but now that he's on the disabled list with a lower back strain, he cedes his spot on the list to Roy Halladay. The surprise return of the Phillies' veteran lands him at No. 50 this week. Like Halladay, Tyler Chatwood could re-emerge in the Rockies' rotation sooner than expected, so his owners should monitor that situation.

Changes in two-start status: With Cingrani out of the Reds' rotation, Mat Latos should now get two starts, unless Greg Reynolds picks up another spot start...The Orioles pushed Miguel Gonzalez's next start back, so while he loses a two-start week, Wei-Yin Chen gains one...Similarly, the delay in Gerrit Cole's next start opens up a two-start week for Jeff Locke...The Diamondbacks' need for a spot starter Tuesday means Brandon McCarthy likely loses his second start.

My Top 70 Starting Pitchers for Week 22
Rank Player Start 1 Start 2
1 Zack Greinke CHC (Arrieta) SD (Ross)
2 Anibal Sanchez OAK (Griffin) CLE (Kazmir)
3 Justin Verlander OAK (Milone) CLE (Salazar)
4 Cliff Lee @NYM (Wheeler) @CHC (Rusin)
5 Clayton Kershaw CHC (Wood) N/A
6 Max Scherzer OAK (Parker) N/A
7 Yu Darvish MIN (Hendriks) N/A
8 Mat Latos @STL (Kelly) @COL (Nicasio)
9 Chris Sale HOU (Cosart) N/A
10 David Price LAA (Vargas) N/A
11 Felix Hernandez TEX (Perez) N/A
12 Stephen Strasburg MIA (Alvarez) N/A
13 Cole Hamels @NYM (Matsuzaka) N/A
14 Adam Wainwright CIN (Bailey) N/A
15 Mike Minor MIA (Turner) N/A
16 Matt Harvey PHI (Martin) N/A
17 James Shields @MIN (Correia) @TOR (Happ)
18 Patrick Corbin SF (Zito) N/A
19 Francisco Liriano STL (Miller) N/A
20 C.J. Wilson @TB (Hernandez) @MIL (Lohse)
21 Hisashi Iwakuma TEX (Holland) @HOU (Oberholtzer)
22 Alex Wood CLE (Salazar) MIA (Eovaldi)
23 Derek Holland @SEA (Iwakuma) N/A
24 Gio Gonzalez MIA (Koehler) N/A
25 Julio Teheran MIA (Fernandez) N/A
26 Justin Masterson @ATL (Maholm) N/A
27 Doug Fister OAK (Straily) N/A
28 A.J. Burnett STL (Lynn) N/A
29 Madison Bumgarner @COL (Chacin) N/A
30 Hyun-Jin Ryu SD (Stults) N/A
31 John Lackey BAL (Norris) N/A
32 Jose Fernandez @ATL (Teheran) N/A
33 Zack Wheeler PHI (Lee) @WAS (Haren)
34 Tyson Ross @ARI (McCarthy) @LAD (Greinke)
35 Lance Lynn @PIT (Burnett) N/A
36 Jered Weaver @MIL (Peralta) N/A
37 Hiroki Kuroda @TOR (Redmond) N/A
38 Jordan Zimmermann NYM (Gee) N/A
39 R.A. Dickey NYY (Hughes) KC (Guthrie)
40 Homer Bailey @STL (Wainwright) N/A
41 Jake Peavy CHW (Danks) N/A
42 Ervin Santana @TOR (Buehrle) N/A
43 Shelby Miller @PIT (Liriano) N/A
44 Dan Haren NYM (Wheeler) N/A
45 Danny Salazar @ATL (Wood) @DET (Verlander)
46 Jonathon Niese PHI (Kendrick) @WAS (Ohlendorf)
47 Ivan Nova BAL (Feldman) N/A
48 Felix Doubront BAL (Chen) CHW (Rienzo)
49 Jon Lester BAL (Tillman) N/A
50 Roy Halladay @CHC (Samardzija) N/A
51 Dillon Gee @WAS (Zimmermann) N/A
52 Kris Medlen CLE (Jimenez) N/A
53 Gerrit Cole MIL (Gallardo) N/A
54 Chris Archer LAA (Richards) N/A
55 Wade Miley SD (Erlin) N/A
56 Alex Cobb @OAK (Gray) N/A
57 Jarrod Parker @DET (Scherzer) N/A
58 Martin Perez @SEA (Hernandez) N/A
59 Kyle Lohse @PIT (Lohse) LAA (Wilson)
60 Marco Estrada LAA (Weaver) N/A
61 Wei-Yin Chen @BOS (Doubront) @NYY (Hughes)
62 Matt Garza MIN (Pelfrey) N/A
63 Dan Straily @DET (Fister) N/A
64 Jose Quintana HOU (Clemens) N/A
65 Tim Lincecum @ARI (Delgado) N/A
66 Travis Wood @LAD (Kershaw) N/A
67 Garrett Richards @TB (Archer) N/A
68 Bronson Arroyo @COL (Manship) N/A
69 A.J. Griffin @DET (Sanchez) TB (Hellickson)
70 Charlie Morton MIL (Gorzelanny) N/A

Honorable mention: Wily Peralta vs. LAA (Weaver); Jhoulys Chacin vs. SF (Bumgarner); Andrew Cashner @LAD (Capuano); Bruce Chen @MIN (Albers).

Two-Start Options to Consider

Alex Wood, Braves (CLE, MIA): As mentioned above, it appears Wood will make both of his scheduled starts. Not that it matters whether he does or not, as Wood has pitched his way into must-start status. He's been automatic over his last five starts, holding opponents to a .196/.243/.290 slash line. While those numbers are bound to rise somewhat going forward, xFIP estimates that Wood is deserving of a 2.95 season-to-date ERA -- not too much higher than his 2.50 mark.
This week's rank: 22
My take: Solid standard mixed league start

Zack Wheeler, Mets (PHI, @WAS): Week after week, I've been less optimistic about Wheeler than many other Fantasy owners and analysts, as I've worried about him issuing too many walks. Wheeler's given me one less thing to complain about, as he has walked 12 batters over his last 31 innings -- a completely respectable ratio. There is still the matter of his flyball tendencies, but they're not extreme and won't spoil his week all on their own. He looks like a safe play as long as he keeps throwing strikes.
This week's rank: 33
My take: Solid standard mixed league start

Tyson Ross, Padres (@ARI, @LAD): Ross' streak of five straight quality starts ended Tuesday when he allowed four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Pirates, but it was his sixth start in a row in which he got 10 or more swinging strikes. After putting up subpar whiff rates in each of the last two seasons, Ross is getting hitters to pursue and miss on 11 percent of his pitches this season. Increased fastball velocity is surely playing a role, so he could maintain his 8.0 K/9 rate. Ross still struggles with control, so his 1.17 WHIP could rise, but that won't ruin his viability for this two-start week.
This week's rank: 34
My take: Solid standard mixed league start

R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays (NYY, KC): Even though Dickey has allowed four runs in each of his two last starts, he has built on his recent pattern of getting whiffs at a high rate and throwing more strikes in general. That doesn't mean he is without risk this week, as Dickey is also building on his precedent of struggling at Rogers Centre, and he gets two starts there. Opponents have slugged .506 versus Dickey in his home starts, but at least he'll face the Royals, who remain one of the American League's lesser power-hitting teams. If you have Dickey benched, you might as well view his glass as half-full, since you are unlikely to find a two-start pitcher with similar upside on waivers.
This week's rank: 39
My take: Solid standard mixed league start

Danny Salazar, Indians (@ATL, @DET): After having a start pushed back in consecutive weeks -- thus erasing a second scheduled start in each week -- I've practically given up hope that Salazar will ever actually get a two-start week. It doesn't matter, though. Salazar is worth starting in nearly all formats as a one-start pitcher, just to get his strikeouts and low WHIP.
This week's rank: 45
My take: Solid standard mixed league start

Jonathon Niese, Mets (PHI, @WAS): Niese has put his early-season control issues behind him, and since mid-May, he's been more like his old self. Even well before his midseason disabled list stint, Niese had begun to throw strikes more consistently and limit his walks. Over his last nine starts, Niese has failed to hold opponents to three runs or fewer just once. He's been steady enough to work his way back to standard mixed league viability, and he can be started with confidence in a two-start week.
This week's rank: 46
My take: Solid standard mixed league start

Felix Doubront, Red Sox (BAL, CHW): Doubront entered his most recent start in the midst of a minor skid, having posted a 4.73 ERA over his previous five turns in the rotation. Some of his troubles stemmed from apparent bad luck on balls in play (.365 BABIP), but a dip in his swinging strike rate raised the spectre of more balls getting put in play. While Doubront bounced back Wednesday against the Giants, he still managed to get just six whiffs in 114 pitches. Though Doubront's inconsistency may cause owners to squirm when placing him in their rotation this week, he's still a better use of an active roster spot than most of your waiver options.
This week's rank: 48
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start

Kyle Lohse, Brewers (@PIT, LAA): Aside from a difficult May, Lohse has been a consistent producer in Fantasy despite his usual lack of strikeouts. He helps himself with a low walk rate, but given how much contact Lohse allows, he can be vulnerable to bad outings. Lohse's upcoming home outing against the Angels in particular looks like an opportunity for his ERA and WHIP to take a hit. That's especially true if Carlos Gomez is not patrolling center field, as he has probably played a role in helping Lohse to low BABIPs on flyballs (.078) and line drives (.550), though Gomez's return to the lineup Friday is an encouraging sign.
This week's rank: 59
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start

Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles (@BOS, @NYY): Chen has been remarkably steady this season, having allowed more than three runs in only two of his 16 starts. Though he is rarely dominant, he appears to be solid enough to trust with two starts. My only hesitation in recommending him in a week like this is that I don't trust his 0.9 HR/9 ratio. For a flyball pitcher who has made the bulk of his starts in hitter-friendly environments, he could be due for a bumper crop of taters at any moment. At worst, he should still be able to lower your team's WHIP, so Chen is worth a start.
This week's rank: 61
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start.

A.J. Griffin, Athletics (@DET, TB): When Griffin finished last season with a 3.06 ERA, xFIP said: not so fast, Fantasy owners. The advanced metric accounted for, among other things, Griffin's 78 percent strand rate and estimated that, with lesser luck, he should have tacked on nearly a run to his ERA. As foreshadowed by xFIP, Griffin has not been good for your rotation's ERA this year, but at least he's offered a low WHIP. Actually, even that hasn't been the case over his last three starts, as Griffin's control has suddenly and inexplicably abandoned him. If he rights himself, Griffin could be a decent two-start option, but that's a lot to expect, especially with two tough opponents on the schedule. If that's not reason enough to be cautious about using Griffin, keep in mind that he may lose his second start to either Brett Anderson or Bartolo Colon.
This week's rank: 69
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start

Mike Leake, Reds (@STL, @COL): Leake coasted to a 2.52 ERA through the end of June, but given his mediocre strikeout rate, he seeed primed for regression in the second half. His 4.25 ERA since then may not be much of a surprise, and it's discouraging that he's been a far worse pitcher from a skills perspective. Leake has been allowing more contact, particularly of the airborne variety, and that's enabled batters to slug .472 against him over his last nine starts. Given that trend, a trip to Coors Field should raise a bright red flag.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start

Jeff Locke, Pirates (MIL, STL): Locke has been due for a correction for some time, and he's regressed with a vengeance over his last five starts, having allowed 19 earned runs over 22 innings. It's not just that he has been less fortunate with hits on balls in play and stranding runners; his control, which was not pristine to begin with, has gotten worse. He's proven himself too risky for standard mixed leagues, but owners in deeper formats shouldn't completely give up on Locke. He's still a fine inducer of ground balls, and he still gets to call PNC Park home. Those factors could make him useful in deeper mixed leagues this week.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start.

Phil Hughes, Yankees (@TOR, BAL): If Hughes were just a little less amenable to giving up homers, he could be started safely in two-start weeks, offering a similar level of value and risk as Miguel Gonzalez or A.J. Griffin. He's not likely to be, having posted HR/9 rates in excess of 1.25 in three of the last four seasons. Hughes is too much of a potential burden on your ERA to make it worth chasing strikeouts and WHIP in a two-start week.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start

Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (@KC, @OAK): Just as Hellickson seemed to be breaking loose from his malaise, he's mired in a funk once again. During his initial slump this season, Hellickson's struggles were born of the combination of a high flyball rate and a surprisingly low strand rate, but at least he was getting strikeouts at a reasonable clip. Over his last five outings, Hellickson has recorded a mere 12 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings, as swings-and-misses have been less common. While he could be helped by pitching in favorable environments this week, it's not as if Hellickson has been that good at pitcher's parks this year.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start

Andre Rienzo, White Sox (HOU, @BOS): Rienzo hasn't been getting many swings-and-misses or strikeouts, but he's carried the gains he made in Triple-A in getting grounders over to his first few starts as a major leaguer. Perhaps he'll have a big strikeout game against the Astros, but he'll need to keep the ball down against the Red Sox if he is to escape Week 22 unscathed. That will be no easy feat, as Boston ranks among the top teams in Isolated Power and flyball rate.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start

Brett Oberholtzer, Astros (@CHW, SEA): Oberholtzer has remained true to the form he displayed in his minor league career, showing strong control while allowing a fair amount of contact. That has worked well enough for Oberholtzer to have notched quality starts in his first four turns in the Astros' rotation, and he hasn't had the easiest of schedules. Unless he reduces his 47 percent flyball rate, the southpaw is probably due for a comeuppance, even though he's facing lesser competition this week. The Mariners aren't a bad power-hitting team, and not surprisingly, the White Sox have hit homers more frequently when at U.S. Cellular Field.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start

Nate Eovaldi, Marlins (@WAS, @ATL): Eovaldi's owners are still stinging from last week's battering at the hands of the Giants, but that was one of only two sub-quality starts he has turned in this season out of a dozen tries. Though he throws hard, nothing in Eovaldi's skill ratios really stands out. The most noticeable feature in his stat line is the five home runs allowed in 70 2/3 innings, and that's not especially surprising, as Eovaldi hasn't made many visits to hitter-friendly parks. Nationals Park and Turner Field both play as neutral venues, so while it may not be a terrible week for Eovaldi, it's not a week to trust him in anything shallower than a very deep mixed league.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start

Kyle Kendrick, Phillies (@NYM, @CHC): There was a time when Kendrick was getting just enough strikeouts to be a factor in two-start weeks, but we haven't seen that version of him in two months. While Kendrick is still adept at throwing strikes and getting grounders, he allows too much contact to be trusted in mixed leagues. He should be better going forward than his 6.62 ERA from his last 10 starts would indicate, but Kendrick is still just relevant for NL-only leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start

Jeremy Guthrie, Royals (TB, @TOR): It's hard to fathom how Guthrie has managed a 12-10 record, but even with those wins, he is currently the 62nd-ranking pitcher in Fantasy points in standard formats. That ranking gives Guthrie the appearance of being someone to consider for two-start weeks, but he's even risky to start in AL-only leagues. According to FanGraphs.com, Guthrie has allowed contact at the second-highest rate in the majors, and with opponents slugging .446 against him, the contact he's allowing is often brutal in nature.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: AL-only start

Jake Arrieta, Cubs (@LAD, PHI): Arrieta got his Cubs career off to a good start with two successful outings, but the third time was not the charm. His subpar control got the worst of him, as he threw only 44 of 78 pitches for strikes and issued four walks in four innings. Even though Arrieta could pile up strikeouts in a two-start week, he's been extremely wild in most of his appearances this season. Not only can he clog up the bases, but with a history of poor strand rates, Arrieta has been all too good at emptying the bases by way of home plate.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs .

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Player News
J.P. Arencibia homers in loss Tuesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:10 am ET) Rangers first baseman J.P. Arencibia went 1 for 6 with a solo home run in his team's 2-1, 14-inning loss to the Yankees Tuesday.

Arencibia broke a scoreless tie with his home run in the top of the 13th inning, but the Yankees were able to even the score in the bottom half of the frame before going on to win one inning later. He has hit .139/.186/.291 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 79 at-bats.


Chase Headley delivers walkoff single in Yankee debut
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:08 am ET) Yankees third baseman Chase Headley went 1 for 4 with a walkoff RBI single in his team's 2-1, 14-inning win over the Rangers Tuesday.

Headley was a late entry into the game, serving as a pinch hitter in the eighth inning. He remained in and sent his team home happy by picking up a base hit with runners on the corners and one out in the 14th. He has hit .230/.296/.353 with seven home runs and 33 RBI in 283 at-bats.


Scott Carroll struggles against the Royals
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:05 am ET) White Sox pitcher Scott Carroll had a rough start Tuesday against the Royals.

Carroll proved to be hittable Tuesday, giving up 11 hits over five innings. He allowed five runs, though only four were earned. Carroll struck out three and walked two. He actually pitched pretty well early. Mike Moustakas was able to hit a solo home run in the second inning, but Carroll otherwise tossed up zeroes until the sixth inning.

Carroll allowed two doubles and a single to open the inning. After giving up a walk, Carroll was pulled from the game. Two runs scored after Carroll left. He was charged with four earned runs. 

The loss drops Carroll to 4-6 on the year. His next start will come against the Twins.


Nick Martinez holds Yankees scoreless in no-decision
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:05 am ET) Rangers pitcher Nick Martinez wasn't a factor in the decision Tuesday despite giving up just three hits and a walk in 5 1/3 scoreless innings and striking out three in his team's 2-1, 14-inning loss to the Yankees.

Martinez was taken out after issuing his first walk of the game with one out in the bottom of the sixth inning even though he had thrown just 67 pitches. He's still looking for his first win since May 24. Martinez owns a 4.73 ERA and 32:32 K:BB ratio in 72 1/3 innings. He's set to face the A's Sunday.


Chase Whitley tosses six scoreless innings vs. Rangers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:04 am ET) Yankees pitcher Chase Whitley didn't factor into Tuesday's decision after giving up seven hits in six scoreless innings, striking out six and walking none in his team's 2-1, 14-inning win over the Rangers.

Whitley was removed after giving up a leadoff single in the seventh inning despite having thrown just 75 pitches. However, it was the first time he has completed six innings since June 12. Whitley owns a 4.60 ERA and 46:12 K:BB ratio in 60 2/3 innings. He's scheduled to face the Blue Jays Sunday.


Bruce Chen picks up a win Tuesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:03 am ET) Royals pitcher Bruce Chen tossed five strong innings Tuesday against the White Sox.

Chen allowed one run on five hits over five innings. He struck out two and walked two during the outing. The only blemish against Chen was a solo home run by Adam Dunn in the fourth inning. Chen was pulled after throwing 89 pitches. He’s pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, but is filling in for Jason Vargas in the rotation. 

The win brings Chen to 2-2 on the year. His next start is currently slated to be against the Indians.


Evan Longoria smacks 12th home run Tuesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) Rays third baseman Evan Longoria went 1 for 4 with a solo home run in his team's 7-2 win over the Cardinals Tuesday.

Longora waited until the last possible moment to deliver his blast, knocking his home run with two outs in the ninth inning. He has hit .262/.336/.400 with 12 home runs and 49 RBI in 390 at-bats.


Adam Wainwright fails to go five innings Tuesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright failed to go five innings Tuesday against the Rays.

Wainwright allowed six runs, four earned, on six hits over 4 2/3 innings. He walked four and struck out four during the outing. Wainwright was actually cruising along until the fifth inning. At that point, he had allowed one run on a sacrifice bunt. 

Wainwright started off the fifth with a walk to Kevin Kiermaier. Two hitters later, Ben Zobrist reached on an error by Wainwright. That’s when things fell apart. Wainwright gave up an RBI double to the next hitter before hitting Evan Longoria with a pitch. Wainwright then walked James Loney, bringing in another run. Yunel Escobar doubled in two more and a Jose Molina ground out drove in the sixth and final run. Wainwright then walked Jake Odorizzi and was removed from the game.

The loss dropped Wainwright to 12-5 on the year. His next start will come against the Cubs.


Jake Odorizzi strikes out eight in win vs. Cardinals
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) Rays pitcher Jake Odorizzi earned a win Tuesday, giving up two earned runs on five hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings and striking out eight in his team's 7-2 victory over the Cardinals.

Odorizzi (6-8) surrendered a leadoff home run in the bottom of the first inning, but he was able to regroup and hold the opposition scoreless until the Cardinals slugged another solo home run in the sixth inning. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last eight innings.

Odorizzi owns a 3.97 ERA and 124:42 K:BB ratio in 106 2/3 innings. He's scheduled to square off with the Brewers Monday.


David Ross dealing with plantar fasciitis
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(7/22/2014) Red Sox catcher David Ross pulled up lame while running to first base Tuesday but remained in the game, and he was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis after the game, WEEI.com reports.

Ross said after the game that he didn't expect the injury to cause him to miss any time. "It’s been going on for a few days," Ross said. "I was getting better. It was getting a lot better. I just aggravated on that one swing. It’s not going to keep me from playing I don’t think. It’s one of those things that’s going to effect my running a little bit, which is definitely not something manager John [Farrell] is worrying about, my speed to help the team if it would."




 
 
 
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