Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Reality Check: Not the time to be stubborn

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

On May 5, Prince Fielder, now regarded as something of a disappointment this season, was the top first baseman in Head-to-Head leagues, ahead of even Chris Davis.

On May 5, Kevin Slowey, with his 1.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, ranked 27th among all starting pitchers.

On May 5, Mark Reynolds was outpacing Paul Goldschmidt, nearly doubling him up in homers while compiling a higher batting average.

On May 5, John Buck ranked second among all catchers, his 10 home runs leading the position.

On May 5, Yuniesky Betancourt, with his seven home runs, was looking like the better bet at second base than Matt Carpenter, who was batting an underwhelming .274. Jason Kipnis, meanwhile, was buried somewhere behind Luis Valbuena.

On May 5, Coco Crisp had outscored Mike Trout by 2 1/2 Head-to-Head points despite playing in 32 fewer games.

"Gee, Scott, that's some mighty interesting learnin' and whatnot, but ... why the fixation with May 5?"

Check out our Fantasy Baseball podcast!
Stay a step ahead of your competition in 2014 by checking out our popular Fantasy Baseball Today podcasts. Adam Aizer, Scott White and Al Melchior will entertain you and help you dominate all season.
Latest episode | Subscribe!

Because that was five weeks into the season -- or exactly how much time we have left.

You know what can happen in five weeks? As I think I just demonstrated, pandemonium. When you reduce a 26-week ordeal to such a small fraction, all those statistical anomalies you've trained yourself to ignore are suddenly within the realm of possibility.

So this time of year more than any other, you have to keep an open mind.

It's a definite hurdle for the experienced Fantasy owner who gets a twisted kind of satisfaction from seeing a novice sacrifice the long term for the short term, whether by going all-in on Kelly Johnson during one of his patented hot streaks, dangling Matt Kemp for 50 cents on the dollar as soon as he hits the DL or dumping a struggling Lance Lynn for a two-start, flavor-of-the-week type like Tyson Ross.

But if, specifically in Head-to-Head leagues, you often find yourself wondering how you can fare so well during the regular season only to lose in the playoffs, perhaps it's because you haven't learned when to take a page from the novice's playbook.

With five weeks to go, what do you have to lose?

I'll admit it's safer not to. Stick with the tried-and-trues, and even if you lose, you'll at least have the consolation of knowing you made the "right" move. I'll admit I often defer to a go-with-the-guys-who-got-me-there approach just so I won't spend the offseason wondering why I was willing to wager a season of careful maneuvering on a relative act of stupidity.

But I'll also admit I'm too often one of those owners who finds himself wondering how he can fare so well during the regular season only to lose in the playoffs. And on those fleeting occasions when I actually do take home the title, I usually have a surprising upstart to thank.

In 2008, it was Shin-Soo Choo, an ex-prospect and presumed lost cause at age 25 who justified my decision to trade Vladimir Guerrero for pitching help by batting .404 (44 for 109) with eight homers and a 1.188 OPS over the final five weeks.

In 2010, it was Jed Lowrie, an injury-riddled 26-year-old who more than made up for a season-ending injury to Hanley Ramirez by batting .295 (28 for 95) with six homers and a .938 OPS over the final five weeks.

Just last year, it was Kris Medlen, a converted reliever with less-than-elite stuff who became the ace of a team that had leaned too heavily on a fading Lance Lynn, taking down every Justin Verlander and David Price in his path with a 5-0 record, 1.06 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings over the final five weeks.

You think I saw that coming on May 5? Pfft ... not even on Aug. 5. But I took a leap of faith at that crucial moment when I had to, and it ended up being what put me over the top.

Now, obviously, you can take it too far. The idea isn't to overhaul your roster with a bunch of flavor-of-the-week types, squandering all that made your team good in the first place -- and I can't help but wonder if columns like this one often go by the wayside for fear of Fantasy owners doing just that.

It's bound to happen. Five weeks from now, I'm sure to get an e-mail saying something to the effect of "I took your advice and dropped Chris Sale for Jonathon Niese, and it cost me a championship! Phony! You're a big, fat phony!"

OK. Except I'm not advising anyone to drop Sale. The guy had a bad start last time out, but it doesn't change the way I feel about him going forward. And if it changes the way you feel, I can't help but wonder how you got this far.

That's not to say two bad starts would be enough turn me off a guy. Look at the way Mike Minor bounced back last time out. Perhaps not even a series of bad starts would do the trick. Those who pulled the plug on Jeff Samardzija with his bumpy beginning to August may end up missing out a terrific finish, given the way his last two starts have gone.

I don't know that I can give you an exact number -- in terms of starts or at-bats -- for when to pull the plug on a "proven commodity," but it's on the higher end. When predicting future performance, five months' history should count for more than five weeks' history. Still, there's a difference between riding out the waves of a 162-game season and going down with the ship.

For certain players, based on who they are, how long they've underperformed and where they are in their careers (among other factors), you can just tell they're not going to do much for you the rest of the way.

And I'm not talking about players you booted from your roster weeks ago, like Raul Ibanez and Daniel Nava. I'm talking about supposed "mainstays" still owned in 85-90 percent of leagues. Guys like Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins haven't done a blessed thing for you all season. Gone. Chase Headley is in the same boat. Get him out of there. Nick Markakis was adequate to begin the season, but with a .302 slugging percentage since June 1, he's nothing but deadweight. Forget about him. Tim Lincecum? Yovani Gallardo? Jeremy Hellickson? Hasta la bye-bye.

You hold on to them because what's on the waiver wire doesn't appear to be any better, but that's because certain alternatives haven't been around long enough to close the gap on your league's stats page.

Such as? Well, that's the fun part. To me, the prime candidate to make a worthwhile contribution down the stretch among players who weren't on anybody's radar just a couple weeks ago is Khris Davis, who has assumed Ryan Braun's starting left field job in Milwaukee. If he seems too obvious to you with his six home runs in his last 15 games, well, that's really not the point. For you to justify putting a relative unknown like him in your lineup at this crucial stage of the season, he better be doing special things.

I'm not guaranteeing he'll sustain this pace. In fact, I suspect he'll cool off to some degree before season's end. But I'm not any more skeptical of him than I was of Choo five years ago or Medlen last year. Sometimes, you just have to take a leap of faith, especially when your alternative is someone completely uninspiring like Michael Brantley or Andre Ethier. Davis did hit .350 with 15 homers and a 1.055 in 260 at-bats between three stops in the minors last year, so it's not like this performance is completely out of left field. And given how well he drives the ball the right field, I get the feeling he'll still be a factor in April.

If you need to set your sights a little lower than a player already owned in 61 percent of leagues, L.J. Hoes has emerged as sort of a poor man's Shane Victorino since taking over in right field in Houston. He has terrific plate discipline for a 23-year-old, helping him get the most of his extra-base power, and he's proven to be a better base-stealer than expected. He didn't have big steal totals in the minors, but steals are one of those decision-based stats that don't depend so much on track record. As long as Hoes doesn't run into outs, the Astros will keep sending him.

Speaking of steals, Emilio Bonifacio has been reborn on the base paths since coming over to the Royals in a mid-August trade, becoming the prolific base-stealer he was in his final two seasons with the Marlins. His bat is still in question, but with seven steals in 11 games with Kansas City, he's a potential game-changer off waivers in Rotisserie leagues.

Scooter Gennett has been surprisingly productive since taking over as the Brewers' starting second baseman, particularly in terms of power. Maybe those favorable scouting reports count for more than the minor-league numbers after all. I'd rather have Brian Dozier or Brad Miller, but hey, they're all better than Marco Scutaro and Jurickson Profar right now. A quality second baseman is hard to find.

Since returning from a hamstring injury three weeks ago, Marco Estrada has looked like the pitcher everyone pegged as a sleeper coming into the season, using impeccable control to pile up strikeouts. And though Sonny Gray got hit hard last time out, he showed enough in his first three starts -- in terms of efficiency, endurance and just pure stuff -- to deserve a roster spot in mixed leagues.

Or you can play it safe and hope Mike Leake gives up two earned runs instead of four next time out. Or Travis Wood, whatever. Those two aren't Sale. They're not even Samardzija. Based on what I know about them -- their peripherals, their track records, their pedigrees, etc. -- what they've done recently is what they should have been doing all along.

Unless you think that's good enough to win you a championship, what do you have to lose by trying out something else?

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Dodgers' Erik Bedard willing to go to Triple-A
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11:39 pm ET) Dodgers pitcher Erik Bedard is willing to go to Triple-A if he doesn't break camp with the major-league club, according to MLB.com.

Bedard allowed one run over two innings in his first taste of spring action on Wednesday. The veteran said he knows that if the Dodgers five starters are healthy, he'll be sent to the minors. "I know where I stand," Bedard said. "The game is still fun. I like to play baseball."

Bedard posted a 4.76 ERA over 75 2/3 innings last season. 


Dodgers' Alex Guerrero willing to play third base
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11:36 pm ET) Dodgers infielder Alex Guerrero has been willing to learn third this spring, according to MLB.com.

Guerrero is in a bit of a unique position. With Howie Kendrick entrenched at second, Guerrero doesn't really have a spot in the team's infield. Due to his contract, however, the team can't just send him to the minors. Guerrero can block the move, and has already said he plans to do so if the team tries to send him down. If he can play third well, that may not be a problem.

For what it's worth, manager Don Mattingly believes Guerrero has looked better this spring. "I really do think the second year [in camp] he looks a lot different as far as being relaxed," Mattingly said. "He's swinging the bat well and he keeps improving."

The 28-year-old hit .333/.371/.621 over three minor-league levels last season. 


Twins' Byron Buxton doubles twice on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11:27 pm ET) Twins outfield prospect Byron Buxton doubled twice on Wednesday against the University of Minnesota.

Buxton came into last season ranked as one of the best prospects in the minors. He had injury issues, which ended his season early. While Buxton is still considered the Twins top prospect, he was passed by other players in the overall prospect rankings due to the injuries. 

Buxton seemed to be 100 percent on Wednesday, doubling twice during the contest. He scored one run and drove in one RBI. The 21-year-old should open the season in the minors, but could debut as early as this season depending on his performance. 


Twins' Jose Berrios strikes out four on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11:22 pm ET) Twins starter Jose Berrios struck out four during his first spring appearance on Wednesday.

Berrios took on the University of Minnesota, and turned in a good showing. While Berrios is a minor-leaguer, he's only 20, and was taking on players his age. Berrios allowed one hit and one unearned run over two innings of work. He struck out four batters.

Berrios is the team's third-best prospect according to Baseball America. He's expected to begin the year in the minors, but could move quickly based on how well he performs. 


Diamondbacks pitcher Braden Shipley makes debut Wednesday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(10:36 pm ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Braden Shipley pitched two innings in his spring training debut Wednesday, allowing just one baserunner and recording one strikeout. Shipley admitted he was a bit worried in his first appearance, reports AZCentral.com.

"I was a little nervous going in, but that was expected," Shipley said. "I think it was more excitement for me. That was really fun."

Manager Chip Hale said he expects Shipley to make starts in his next few appearances this spring.


Dodgers pitcher Brett Anderson faces batters for first time this spring
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(10:30 pm ET) Dodgers pitcher Brett Anderson was able to face live batters for the first time this spring since recovering from back surgery, the 27-year-old tweeted Wednesday.

Anderson was only able to pitch 43 1/3 innings in 2014 with a 1-3 record and 2.91 ERA after suffering the back injury that cut his season short. 


White Sox SS Tim Anderson looking to become long-term solution
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:55 pm ET) White Sox prospect Tim Anderson is on a mission in spring training this year. He wants to prove that he belongs in the majors with the big boys.

"Just show them I can stay at short and my defense has come a long way and it's going to get better," Anderson said. "I want to be a shortstop for a long time. I'm going to be a shortstop. I'm going to work hard to stay there."

Anderson is currently considered Chicago's No. 2 prospect and could be just the prospect the White Sox are looking for. In his 2015 debut, Anderson smacked a two-run single.

"I'm just staying calm and trying not to do too much and just doing what I've been doing to be here," Anderson said. "It has been exciting to get in here and work with all the big leaguers and get my reps in and see how they go in the daily routine."


Reds' Kevin Gregg hoping to win a spot in the bullpen
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:52 pm ET) Reds pitcher Kevin Gregg is hoping to win a spot in the team's bullpen, according to MLB.com.

Gregg may be 36-years-old, but understands he still needs to prove himself.  "I don't mind coming in and earning a spot," he said. "I'm coming off elbow surgery. At this point in my career, it's something I need to do."

Gregg had bone chips removed from his elbow in August, but was able to hit 92 mph in a showcase in February. He believes his velocity has improved since then.

Manager Bryan Price had good things to say about Gregg thus far. "He looks great. He looks durable," Price said. "He's got hand speed. He's crisp with his location. I've been extremely impressed with Kevin to this point."

The 36-year-old tossed just nine innings in the majors last year.


Diamondbacks pitcher Matt Reynolds sidelined with oblique injury
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:26 pm ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Matt Reynolds was scheduled to throw batting practice Wednesday, but was unable to do so while dealing with a sore right oblique, reports MLB.com.

"I'm like, 'I'm in here again, I can't get out of this darn room,'" Reynolds said.

Reynolds missed all of 2014 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he isn't having any issues with the elbow.

"My elbow feels real good," he said. "It feels strong."


Report: MLB split on whether Josh Hamilton should go to rehab
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:24 pm ET) Major League Baseball is split over whether Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton should go to rehab, according to the Los Angeles Times

The four person panel assigned to Hamilton's case are deadlocked, and the group will have to bring in an arbitrator in order to break the tie. The panel first must decide whether Hamilton violated any rules, and then must agree on a course of treatment. The panel has not been able to agree on the latter of those conditions, which is why an arbitrator is necessary. 

If Hamilton is sent to rehab, he would receive his full salary for 30 days, and then half his salary over the next 30 days. If he's suspended, but does not have to attend rehab, Hamilton would not be paid during the suspension. 

MLB is also trying to determine whether Hamilton should be charged as a fourth-time offender of the drug policy. If that's the case, Hamilton could be suspended for the entire season.

Hamilton, 33, admitted to MLB that he experienced a relapse a few months ago, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. Hamilton has dealt with drug and alcohol issues throughout his career, and was suspended for three seasons after failing drug tests as a minor-leaguer. He met with officials in New York in February regarding the incident. 


 
 
 
Rankings