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2014 Fantasy Outlooks: Atlanta Braves

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Having gone seven years without a division title, the Braves ended their drought in particularly convincing fashion last year, running away from a Nationals team that was favored to win not only the division, but the World Series. And just like during their 15-year run from 1991 to 2005, their starting rotation carried them.

This one was lacking in star power, though. Fantasy owners already knew of Kris Medlen because of his impossible finish to 2012, but even they underestimated the impact Mike Minor and Julio Teheran would have. Not that either's breakthrough was particularly surprising. Minor was nearly as dominant as Medlen to finish 2012 (though his overall numbers did a pretty good job of hiding it), and Teheran was long considered one of the game's top pitching prospects. Both are top 30 starting pitchers heading into 2014, with Medlen just on the outskirts.

2014 Fantasy Outlooks
A.L. East N.L. East
Orioles Braves
Red Sox Marlins
Yankees Mets
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Nationals
A.L. Central N.L. Central
White Sox Cubs
Indians Reds
Tigers Brewers
Royals Pirates
Twins Cardinals
A.L. West N.L. West
Astros Diamondbacks
Angels Rockies
Athletics Dodgers
Mariners Padres
Rangers Giants

And there's more where that came from. Yes, Tim Hudson is gone, but that's a bigger loss for the clubhouse than for Fantasy owners. Brandon Beachy flashed ace potential when he first broke into the big leagues and should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery this spring. Alex Wood has impressive ability but may have to wait his turn, especially if he hasn't claimed the role by the time Gavin Floyd returns from Tommy John surgery in May. Freddy Garcia and David Hale are also in the mix. The bullpen has long been one of this club's strengths, anchored by historically dominant closer Craig Kimbrel. He'll again be the first player selected at his position.

The lineup is a different story. Freddie Freeman emerged as the centerpiece with Chipper Jones retired, but Jason Heyward, who seemed a lock for that role just a couple years ago, can't decide how good he wants to be. He still has superstar potential, but Fantasy owners should know not to overpay for him by now. Justin Upton did fine coming over from Arizona and remains an early-round type with room to grow, but brother B.J. Upton completely fell apart with a .184 batting average, joining Dan Uggla to give the Braves two sub-.200 hitters. A first-place team never had it so good.

Apart from baseball's unpredictable nature, neither offers much hope for a rebound. For Uggla in particular, Fantasy owners are just counting down the days until he loses his job to Tommy La Stella, an on-base specialist with little to offer in terms of power or speed. Upton may be salvageable at age 29 -- he'll get every opportunity in light of his big contract -- but frankly, shortstop Andrelton Simmons and catcher Evan Gattis have become the hotter commodities in Fantasy. Both offer plus power for the positions they play but still have some refining to do.

Bounce-back candidate ... Brandon Beachy, starting pitcher

2014 projected lineup
Player Name Position
1. Jason Heyward RF
2. Justin Upton LF
3. Freddie Freeman 1B
4. Evan Gattis C
5. Chris Johnson 3B
6. Andrelton Simmons SS
7. Dan Uggla 2B
8. B.J. Upton CF
Bench Ryan Doumit C/OF
Bench Jordan Schafer OF
Beachy is a rare example of a player who doesn't make a clean return from Tommy John surgery, needing a second procedure to clear up discomfort in his elbow about a year after the first. Though it wasn't such a good thing for those who drafted him last year, it could be for those hoping to draft him this year. Another year out of the spotlight is another year under the radar, and the potential reward for investing a late-round pick in him is an ace, or at least close to it. Remember: This was one of the more exciting rookie pitchers in 2011, averaging 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 25 starts, and he followed it up with a 2.00 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 13 starts before his procedure in 2012. He wasn't quite as dominant during a five-start stretch late last season, but considering he was pitching with discomfort, he was more effective than he had any right to be. He's expected to enter spring training without limitations, and given his track record so far, that's a dangerous thing.

Bust ... Andrelton Simmons, shortstop

In a different time with a different player pool, Evan Gattis would be the choice here instead of Simmons. He exhibits more of the warning signs with his all-or-nothing approach. But given the current state of the catcher and shortstop positions, Fantasy owners are more likely to overextend themselves for Simmons than Gattis, who seems to be going in a reasonable spot for a player with his power potential. The mistake they make is one so many made with Starlin Castro last year: They bank on improvement. Granted, Simmons makes contact at a much higher rate, so he probably won't get worse, but with all the home run hitters in the Braves lineup, he's in no position to steal bases. His BABIP should improve if he doesn't elevate the ball so much, but then what happens to his 17 home runs? Maybe he gets stronger at age 24 and delivers the best of both worlds -- for an 11th- or 12th-round pick, it's a worthy gamble -- but if you select Simmons in Round 6, as happened in one of our recent mock drafts, prepare to be disappointed.

Sleeper ... Alex Wood, starting pitcher/relief pitcher

2014 rotation/bullpen
Player Name Throws
1. Kris Medlen RHP
2. Mike Minor LHP
3. Julio Teheran RHP
4. Brandon Beachy RHP
5. Alex Wood LHP
ALT Gavin Floyd RHP
Bullpen Breakdown
1. Craig Kimbrel RHP
2. David Carpenter RHP
3. Luis Avilan LHP
4. Jordan Walden RHP
5. Jonny Venters LHP
You wouldn't know it from the relative lack of hype, but Wood's career has mirrored Tony Cingrani's up to this point. Both were passed over in the first round of their respective drafts because most teams considered them relievers coming out of college. Both lack major league-caliber breaking balls but still managed to put up eye-popping minor-league numbers because of their deceptive left-handed deliveries. Cingrani of course did what he did last year. Wood had a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in his first seven starts, but when he faded over his next three, the Braves shifted him to the bullpen, removing him from the spotlight and casting doubt over his future role. But in doing so, they made him dual-eligible in Fantasy. Clearly, they want him starting long-term, but the surplus of fallback options will keep some Fantasy owners from taking the plunge. Still, Cingrani-like numbers out of the relief pitcher slot win championships in Head-to-Head points leagues. Even if Wood begins in the bullpen, it's likely just to preserve his innings for later in the year.

Prospects Report

Tommy La Stella isn't the only rookie knocking on the door in 2014. Christian Bethancourt may eventually split catching duties with Evan Gattis, especially if an injury creates an opening in the outfield, Gattis' secondary position. Bethancourt is considered a better prospect than La Stella, but mostly because of his defensive prowess. Neither is a safe enough bet for mixed-league consideration, but a big spring would give La Stella fringe sleeper appeal. ... As usual, the Braves have no shortage of pitching in the pipeline. David Hale is first in line and opened eyes in two spot starts late last season, but Lucas Sims is the real prize. A first-round pick in 2012, he dominated lower Class A last year, but the Braves won't rush him at age 19. J.R. Graham should hold them over in the meantime. He missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, casting doubt over his long-term role, but he can hit 97 mph with his fastball and is nearly a finished product at age 24.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Astros leaning toward Collin McHugh to open spring training
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(2:08 pm ET) The Astros are leaning toward pitcher Collin McHugh as their starter for the opening of spring training, reports The Houston Chronicle.

"It's trending toward Collin McHugh starting that first game and getting our pitching lined up," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. "Everybody should pitch in the next four or five games, so [pitching coach Brent Strom] and I are putting that list together. He's got another live BP, so that's why I hesitate to put it in pen. But right now we're planning on seeing him early."

However, Hinch indicated the starter for Opening Day has not been determined.

"Truthfully, I mean, that and even who throws game one of the regular season — game one of the regular season's a little more kind of like a nod to more what you did in the past year, usually," he said. "But, yeah, all five of us are going to get a chance somewhere through the rotation. It's just where we fall."


Rays move pitcher Mike Montgomery to bullpen
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(2:03 pm ET) The Rays moved pitcher Mike Montgomery to the bullpen, reports The Tampa Tribune.

Rays manager Kevin Cash said the move will allow Montgomery to have a bigger impact on the team and Montgomery did not object to the move.

"As a player, I want to make myself as valuable as I can," he said.


Mets' Michael Cuddyer, Curtis Granderson to split time in right field
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:58 pm ET) In order to see which player is the better fit, Mets manager Terry Collins said outfielders Michael Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson will split time in right field during spring training, reports the New York Daily News.


Yankees to start Warren, Eovaldi, Rogers during first three games
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:51 pm ET) The Yankees will open the first three games of spring training with pitchers Adam Warren, Nathan Eovaldi and Esmil Rogers as their starting pitchers, reports Newsday. All three are expected to compete for a fifth or sixth starting rotation spot.

Giants' Matt Cain completes first live batting practice session
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:43 pm ET) Giants pitcher Matt Cain completed his first live batting practice session Sunday and said it felt normal, reports MLB.com.

"I felt like I was pitching today," he said.

Cain is recovering from elbow and ankle surgery, which ended his 2014 season. He is expected to make his spring debut around March 10 to March 14.


Reds' Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis competing for rotation spot
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:36 pm ET) If pitcher Homer Bailey is not on the Opening Day roster, Reds manager Bryan Price indicated his spot in the rotation could go to Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis, reports Cincinnati.com.

"An example would be if Homer is not able to go. If we're healthy, that means Cueto and Leake and three spots in the rotation – two that we think could potentially be filled by young pitchers in Cingrani and DeSclafani," Price said. "That to me suggests that a veteran guy in that other spot would be fairly important, someone who knows how to manage a game and has pitched in the league and has had success in the league. I think that's why guys like Jason and Paul are here."


Mets worried about Juan Lagares' elbow
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:27 pm ET) Concerned over Juan Lagares' elbow, the Mets will monitor how Lagares' elbow reacts to spring training, reports NJ.com.

Lagares suffered an elbow sprain last season, which ended his season in September.


Brewers' Jimmy Nelson throw live batting practice Sunday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:24 pm ET) Brewers pitcher Jimmy Nelson threw live batting practice Sunday and reported no issues, reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Nelson has been suffering from a hamstring injury, which pushed back his previous batting practice session.


Mets not considering Matt Harvey for Opening Day
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:22 pm ET) Mets manager Terry Collins said the team is considering every pitcher a candidate to start Opening Day, except for Matt Harvey, reports The Wall Street Journal.

Harvey is working his way back from elbow surgery in October 2013 and has begun throwing live batting practice.


Mets to sit Wright, Cuddyer, Murphy, Granderson for first two games
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:14 pm ET) The Mets are planning to sit David Wright, Michael Cuddyer, Daniel Murphy and Curtis Granderson during the first two games of spring training, reports ESPNNewYork.com. Their first game of the spring will be Friday.

 
 
 
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