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2014 Fantasy Outlooks: Philadelphia Phillies

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Their payroll constricted by the long-term deals they doled out during their recent run of success, the Phillies have fallen into a rut over the last few years, giving Fantasy owners a good idea what to expect in 2014: A bunch of old guys who'll probably just be worse than last year.

Fortunately, that's not true for the starting rotation yet -- or at least not all of it. Roy Halladay had some shoulder issues that forced his retirement, but Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels still exhibit top-10 potential. Drafting either as your ace puts you in a good position in mixed leagues.

2014 Fantasy Outlooks
A.L. East N.L. East
Orioles Braves
Red Sox Marlins
Yankees Mets
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Nationals
A.L. Central N.L. Central
White Sox Cubs
Indians Reds
Tigers Brewers
Royals Pirates
Twins Cardinals
A.L. West N.L. West
Astros Diamondbacks
Angels Rockies
Athletics Dodgers
Mariners Padres
Rangers Giants

Of course, they're about the only Phillies pitchers you'd want to draft. The other two in the discussion are closer Jonathan Papelbon, whose knockout stuff appeared to lose some of its bite in his age-32 season last year, and recently signed A.J. Burnett, who's back in a hitter's park after a two-year respite in Pittsburgh. Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez are assured spots but are just as likely to hurt your ERA and WHIP as help it in NL-only leagues -- and with hardly any strikeouts to boot.

The Phillies' big offseason acquisition was Marlon Byrd, which hardly constitutes a youth movement. Coming off a career season at age 36, he has his share of skeptics, but he isn't any riskier than Ryan Howard, who's now in jeopardy of becoming a platoon player because of his struggles against left-handed pitchers, which have only gotten worse with his body beginning to betray him at age 34. Hey, Darin Ruf hit 14 homers in 251 at-bats last year, and the Phillies talked like they wanted him to play every day until the Byrd signing forced him to the bench. His natural position is first base.

If the Phillies have one bright spot in their lineup, it's Domonic Brown. Chase Utley has remained fairly productive in between injuries, and Jimmy Rollins could end up going in the middle rounds just because of the position he plays, but Brown represents the one player in the Phillies lineup with honest-to-goodness upside. True, he already broke through as a Fantasy mainstay last year, but because of an Achilles injury that sidelined him off and on throughout the second half, he wasn't as steady as he could have been, hitting 12 of his 27 homers in May alone. He showed he's turned the corner, though, having finally settled on a swing after tinkering with his for most of his minor-league career, and is just scratching the surface of his potential at age 26.

Underappreciated ... Marlon Byrd, outfield

2014 projected lineup
Player Name Position
1. Ben Revere CF
2. Jimmy Rollins SS
3. Chase Utley 2B
4. Domonic Brown LF
5. Marlon Byrd RF
6. Ryan Howard 1B
7. Cody Asche 3B
8. Carlos Ruiz C
Bench Darin Ruf 1B/OF
Bench Bobby Abreu OF
Nobody would endorse drafting Byrd where he finished last year, ranked 27th among outfielders in Head-to-Head leagues and 23rd in Rotisserie. Buying into a career-best performance from a 36-year-old is generally a bad policy. But judging by early draft data, Fantasy owners are so convinced Byrd won't repeat those numbers that they hardly draft him at all. The opportunity cost is so low that, frankly, you're better off believing. And here's some food for thought: Byrd revealed this offseason that he was always taught to aim for the top of the ball, hitting it on the ground to make better use of his speed. He finally realized that staying through the middle of the ball elevates it, making better use of his power. It seems too simple to be true, but looking back at his minor-league numbers, he started out as much more of a power hitter. Believe me: I don't revel in backing an obvious regression candidate, but value is value. At Byrd's likely going rate on Draft Day, he can't possibly hurt you.

Sleeper ... Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, starting pitcher

I could address every Gonzalez question yet to be asked with the same two-word response: Nobody knows. Nobody has any clue what kind of pitcher he'll be because nobody really knows what kind of skill set he has. Access to Cuban ballplayers is so limited that scouting reports on them are always vague, and Gonzalez specifically hasn't pitched since 2011 thanks to surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. So why draft a complete unknown? Like with Byrd, it's a matter of opportunity cost. The chance of striking gold with any player in the last round or two is so low that you may be better off gambling on the mystery man. Hey, the Phillies signed Gonzalez to a six-year, $48 million deal (before cutting it back to three years, $12 million because of concerns over his elbow) for a reason -- and they weren't the only ones bidding. With the A.J. Burnett signing, the gamble is much easier to justify in NL-only leagues than mixed, especially since Gonzalez is likely to begin the year in minors, but you'll want to monitor his performance in all formats. With only Roberto Hernandez standing in his way, a strong showing likely vaults him to the majors.

Impact prospect ... Maikel Franco, third base

2014 rotation/bullpen
Player Name Throws
1. Cliff Lee LHP
2. Cole Hamels LHP
3. A.J. Burnett RHP
4. Kyle Kendrick RHP
5. Roberto Hernandez RHP
ALT Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez RHP
Bullpen Breakdown
1. Jonathan Papelbon RHP
2. Antonio Bastardo LHP
3. Mike Adams RHP
4. Jacob Diekman LHP
5. Chad Gaudin RHP
If the Phillies hadn't already broken in a third baseman last year in Cody Asche, Franco would be a candidate for this year's Wil Myers -- that hitter everyone stashes before the season in anticipation of his arrival midseason. No, he's not quite as well-known as Myers, but judging by his breakthrough performance last year, when he hit .320 with 31 home runs and a .926 OPS -- numbers that only improved following a midseason promotion to Double-A -- he's a pretty big deal. A much bigger deal than Asche, by the way, who doesn't exactly profile as the next Scott Rolen. Translation: The Phillies may not be as committed to him as the world perceives them to be. It's not like he earned anything with his 162 at-bats last year. He didn't embarrass himself, but with a .235 batting average and .691 OPS, he didn't lock up the starting third base job forever and ever. If Asche gets off to a slow start and Franco continues to rake at Triple-A, a midseason switch could be in store.

Prospects Report

Franco isn't the only potential game-changer in the Phillies system. Jesse Biddle might already be in the big leagues if his control hadn't abandoned him down the stretch last year. It was never his strength, but the way he started out 2013, striking out 16 batters on April 22 and 10 in his next start, it didn't seem like it'd be too much of a hindrance. Until he makes some progress on that front, his arrival is difficult to gauge. The Phillies shouldn't have trouble making way for him as soon as he proves ready, but the indefinite timetable makes him a draft-and-stash better left for NL-only formats. ... Ethan Martin could technically win a job in spring training but was so unimpressive in his audition late last year, suffering from his own control issues, that Fantasy owners shouldn't put much faith in him. ... Cesar Hernandez has proven to be a prolific base-stealer in the minors, but getting him in the lineup isn't a priority for the Phillies. If he wins a reserve role, he could matter in NL-only Rotisserie leagues. ... Shortstop J.P. Crawford, the team's first-round pick in 2013, has gotten plenty of love from talent evaluators, but at age 19, he's more tools than polish and several years from reaching the big leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite ..

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Player News
Twins 1B Joe Mauer homers, doubles among four hits Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:34 pm ET) First baseman Joe Mauer gave the Twins an early lead against the Royals on Saturday. Mauer launched a two-run home run in the first inning, as the Twins went on to win by a score of 5-3.

But the home run, his fifth of the year, was just the beginning for Mauer on Saturday. He finished a triple-shy of the cycle, as he went 4 for 5 with the two RBI, a double and two runs scored. 

This was Mauer's first four-hit game of the season, and he's hitting .375 over his last 10 starts.


Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez goes yard in Saturday win
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:33 pm ET) Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has just two hits in his last 18 at-bats, but they were certainly wonderful hits. Both traveled over the fence.

Gonzalez slammed his 15th homer, a solo job in the second inning, to help his team beat the Mets on Saturday. He was hitless in his other four at-bats.

He sports a fine .518 slugging percentage on the year.


Phillies CF Odubel Herrera hits solo home run on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:27 pm ET) Phillies center fielder Odubel Herrera launched a solo home run in a losing effort on Saturday against the Braves. Herrera's home run, his third of the season, came in the eighth inning with the Braves already up 9-4.

Herrera has been having a nice rookie season, as he is batting .261 with 22 RBI on the year.


Phillies' Darin Ruf blasts three-run home run in loss on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:23 pm ET) Making his first start in nearly a week, Phillies left fielder Darin Ruf connected for a three-run home run on Saturday against the Braves. It wasn't enough, however, as the Braves would hang on for the 9-5 victory.

Ruf's home run came in the fifth inning, but the Braves were already comfortably ahead 9-1 at the time. It was his only hit of the evening, and his fourth home run of the season--his first since May 17.


Braves' Kelly Johnson drives in three runs in win on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:18 pm ET) First baseman Kelly Johnson had a big game for the Braves in their 9-5 win over the Phillies on Saturday. Johnson got the scoring started with a two-run single, kicking off a four-run first inning. 

Then, with the Braves already up 8-1 in the fourth, Johnson drove in the Braves' final run of the night with an RBI single in another four-run inning.

Overall, Johnson went 2 for 3 with three RBI and a run scored. The three RBI are the most he's had in a game since he had four on May 5.


Dodgers RP J.P. Howell earns save as Kenley Jansen sits
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:17 pm ET) Barack Obama was in his third year as president the last time Dodgers left-hander J.P. Howell recorded a save.

Howell now has a save for both of his terms in office. He registered another by striking out Curtis Granderson to nail down a win Saturday night aganst the Mets. His last previous save was in 2011.

His usage in that role was necessitated by the unavailability of closer Kenley Jansen, who threw 24 pitches in taking the loss Friday and has allowed a run in each of his last three appearances.


Phillies' Cesar Hernandez batting .447 during nine-game hit streak
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:14 pm ET) Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez increased his hitting streak to nine games with a 2-for-5 effort on Saturday. Hernandez also drove in a run, but the Phillies fell to the Braves by a score of 9-5.

Hernandez is batting .447 with a double, a triple and four RBI over the nine-game stretch. However, the Phillies are just 1-8 in that span. 


Mets SP Matt Harvey no match for Greinke in Saturday loss
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:07 pm ET) One might have assumed that Mets starter Matt Harvey had shed the inconsistency that had plagued him in late May and early June when he put together three successive strong performances.

But one might have assumed wrong.

Harvey needed to be on top of his game Saturday night against Dodgers stud Zack Greinke, but he was at the bottom. He gave up seven hits and walked five in five innings, leading to three runs. He fanned four along the way.

The right-hander, whose record fell to 7-6, gave up a solo home run to Adrian Gonzalez and RBI single to Alberto Callaspo in a fifth inning that all but doomed his team to defeat.


Twins RP Glen Perkins works clean inning Saturday for 27th save
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:04 pm ET) Twins closer Glen Perkins recorded his 27th save in Saturday's 5-3 win over the Royals. Perkins worked another perfect ninth inning, striking out a pair of batters on the way. The right-hander hasn't allowed a run in his last 11 appearances.

Royals' Joe Blanton loses second straight start on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(11:01 pm ET) Royals right-hander Joe Blanton gave up four runs on nine hits over five innings in the 5-3 loss to the Twins on Saturday. Blanton struck out four and did not walk a batter, but he picked up his second consecutive loss.

Blanton (2-2, 3.74 ERA) got off to a bad start on Saturday, as he gave up a two-run home run to Joe Mauer in the first inning. He would give up another run later in the inning, before allowing an RBI triple to Trevor Plouffe in the fifth inning. 

After allowing two earned runs over 11 innings in his first two starts of the season, Blanton has now allowed eight runs in 7 2/3 innings.

It remains to be seen if he will get another start, as the Royals are expecting to have Yordano Ventura back from the disabled list next week sometime. 


 
 
 
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