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2014 Fantasy Outlooks: Philadelphia Phillies

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Their payroll constricted by the long-term deals they doled out during their recent run of success, the Phillies have fallen into a rut over the last few years, giving Fantasy owners a good idea what to expect in 2014: A bunch of old guys who'll probably just be worse than last year.

Fortunately, that's not true for the starting rotation yet -- or at least not all of it. Roy Halladay had some shoulder issues that forced his retirement, but Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels still exhibit top-10 potential. Drafting either as your ace puts you in a good position in mixed leagues.

2014 Fantasy Outlooks
A.L. East N.L. East
Orioles Braves
Red Sox Marlins
Yankees Mets
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Nationals
A.L. Central N.L. Central
White Sox Cubs
Indians Reds
Tigers Brewers
Royals Pirates
Twins Cardinals
A.L. West N.L. West
Astros Diamondbacks
Angels Rockies
Athletics Dodgers
Mariners Padres
Rangers Giants

Of course, they're about the only Phillies pitchers you'd want to draft. The other two in the discussion are closer Jonathan Papelbon, whose knockout stuff appeared to lose some of its bite in his age-32 season last year, and recently signed A.J. Burnett, who's back in a hitter's park after a two-year respite in Pittsburgh. Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez are assured spots but are just as likely to hurt your ERA and WHIP as help it in NL-only leagues -- and with hardly any strikeouts to boot.

The Phillies' big offseason acquisition was Marlon Byrd, which hardly constitutes a youth movement. Coming off a career season at age 36, he has his share of skeptics, but he isn't any riskier than Ryan Howard, who's now in jeopardy of becoming a platoon player because of his struggles against left-handed pitchers, which have only gotten worse with his body beginning to betray him at age 34. Hey, Darin Ruf hit 14 homers in 251 at-bats last year, and the Phillies talked like they wanted him to play every day until the Byrd signing forced him to the bench. His natural position is first base.

If the Phillies have one bright spot in their lineup, it's Domonic Brown. Chase Utley has remained fairly productive in between injuries, and Jimmy Rollins could end up going in the middle rounds just because of the position he plays, but Brown represents the one player in the Phillies lineup with honest-to-goodness upside. True, he already broke through as a Fantasy mainstay last year, but because of an Achilles injury that sidelined him off and on throughout the second half, he wasn't as steady as he could have been, hitting 12 of his 27 homers in May alone. He showed he's turned the corner, though, having finally settled on a swing after tinkering with his for most of his minor-league career, and is just scratching the surface of his potential at age 26.

Underappreciated ... Marlon Byrd, outfield

2014 projected lineup
Player Name Position
1. Ben Revere CF
2. Jimmy Rollins SS
3. Chase Utley 2B
4. Domonic Brown LF
5. Marlon Byrd RF
6. Ryan Howard 1B
7. Cody Asche 3B
8. Carlos Ruiz C
Bench Darin Ruf 1B/OF
Bench Bobby Abreu OF
Nobody would endorse drafting Byrd where he finished last year, ranked 27th among outfielders in Head-to-Head leagues and 23rd in Rotisserie. Buying into a career-best performance from a 36-year-old is generally a bad policy. But judging by early draft data, Fantasy owners are so convinced Byrd won't repeat those numbers that they hardly draft him at all. The opportunity cost is so low that, frankly, you're better off believing. And here's some food for thought: Byrd revealed this offseason that he was always taught to aim for the top of the ball, hitting it on the ground to make better use of his speed. He finally realized that staying through the middle of the ball elevates it, making better use of his power. It seems too simple to be true, but looking back at his minor-league numbers, he started out as much more of a power hitter. Believe me: I don't revel in backing an obvious regression candidate, but value is value. At Byrd's likely going rate on Draft Day, he can't possibly hurt you.

Sleeper ... Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, starting pitcher

I could address every Gonzalez question yet to be asked with the same two-word response: Nobody knows. Nobody has any clue what kind of pitcher he'll be because nobody really knows what kind of skill set he has. Access to Cuban ballplayers is so limited that scouting reports on them are always vague, and Gonzalez specifically hasn't pitched since 2011 thanks to surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. So why draft a complete unknown? Like with Byrd, it's a matter of opportunity cost. The chance of striking gold with any player in the last round or two is so low that you may be better off gambling on the mystery man. Hey, the Phillies signed Gonzalez to a six-year, $48 million deal (before cutting it back to three years, $12 million because of concerns over his elbow) for a reason -- and they weren't the only ones bidding. With the A.J. Burnett signing, the gamble is much easier to justify in NL-only leagues than mixed, especially since Gonzalez is likely to begin the year in minors, but you'll want to monitor his performance in all formats. With only Roberto Hernandez standing in his way, a strong showing likely vaults him to the majors.

Impact prospect ... Maikel Franco, third base

2014 rotation/bullpen
Player Name Throws
1. Cliff Lee LHP
2. Cole Hamels LHP
3. A.J. Burnett RHP
4. Kyle Kendrick RHP
5. Roberto Hernandez RHP
ALT Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez RHP
Bullpen Breakdown
1. Jonathan Papelbon RHP
2. Antonio Bastardo LHP
3. Mike Adams RHP
4. Jacob Diekman LHP
5. Chad Gaudin RHP
If the Phillies hadn't already broken in a third baseman last year in Cody Asche, Franco would be a candidate for this year's Wil Myers -- that hitter everyone stashes before the season in anticipation of his arrival midseason. No, he's not quite as well-known as Myers, but judging by his breakthrough performance last year, when he hit .320 with 31 home runs and a .926 OPS -- numbers that only improved following a midseason promotion to Double-A -- he's a pretty big deal. A much bigger deal than Asche, by the way, who doesn't exactly profile as the next Scott Rolen. Translation: The Phillies may not be as committed to him as the world perceives them to be. It's not like he earned anything with his 162 at-bats last year. He didn't embarrass himself, but with a .235 batting average and .691 OPS, he didn't lock up the starting third base job forever and ever. If Asche gets off to a slow start and Franco continues to rake at Triple-A, a midseason switch could be in store.

Prospects Report

Franco isn't the only potential game-changer in the Phillies system. Jesse Biddle might already be in the big leagues if his control hadn't abandoned him down the stretch last year. It was never his strength, but the way he started out 2013, striking out 16 batters on April 22 and 10 in his next start, it didn't seem like it'd be too much of a hindrance. Until he makes some progress on that front, his arrival is difficult to gauge. The Phillies shouldn't have trouble making way for him as soon as he proves ready, but the indefinite timetable makes him a draft-and-stash better left for NL-only formats. ... Ethan Martin could technically win a job in spring training but was so unimpressive in his audition late last year, suffering from his own control issues, that Fantasy owners shouldn't put much faith in him. ... Cesar Hernandez has proven to be a prolific base-stealer in the minors, but getting him in the lineup isn't a priority for the Phillies. If he wins a reserve role, he could matter in NL-only Rotisserie leagues. ... Shortstop J.P. Crawford, the team's first-round pick in 2013, has gotten plenty of love from talent evaluators, but at age 19, he's more tools than polish and several years from reaching the big leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Scott White at @CBSScottWhite ..

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Player News
RP Ryan Tepera promoted by Blue Jays
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(12:35 pm ET) The Blue Jays have recalled reliever Ryan Tepera two weeks after demoting him, Sportsnet has reported.

Tepera performed well in 12 appearances with Toronto. He allowed just 10 hits in 13 innings with 10 strikeouts and posted an ERA of 2.77.


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(12:15 pm ET) John Gibbons has confirmed via the MLB Radio Network that veteran left-hander Felix Doubront is set to be promoted by the Blue Jays on Friday and could fill the fifth spot in the rotation when the team plays against the host White Sox next week.

The 27-year-old Doubront has yet to pitch in the majors this season. But he was performing well at Triple-A Buffalo with a 2.44 ERA and just 36 hits allowed in 48 innings.


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by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
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Hernandez pushed his hitting streak to seven games Thursday, but he has been on a nice roll offensively for a few weeks. Since June 10, he is batting .371 with a .471 slugging percentage and .900 OPS in his last 18 games. He has one triple, five doubles, eight RBI, 14 runs, six walks, 14 strikeouts and eight stolen bases in that span.


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(11:54 am ET) Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias totaled two hits, including his seventh double, in three at-bats Thursday against the Pirates. He had one run, one walk and one strikeout in the 8-4 loss.

Iglesias has totaled 17 multihit games in 67 appearances. He is batting .325 with two doubles, four RBI, six walks, five runs, 10 strikeouts and two stolen bases in his last 22 games.


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Robinson has played sparingly, particularly in recent weeks. He has started just three of the team's last 15 games and owns a slash line of .250/.303/.315 on the year.


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Hicks, who has been sidelined for three weeks with a forearm strain, returns with a mediocre slash line of .247/.293/.301.


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(11:37 am ET) Although Chris Taylor started at shortstop Thursday immediately following his recall from the minors, Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon said Brad Miller will remain the starting shortstop, per MLB.com.

"Brad is in a pretty good groove right now," McClendon said. "There's still a lot of room for improvement, but he is improving every day. He has his moments [defensively], but most of the time it's just a mechanical thing where he doesn't move through the ball or he stands straight up. I would say the last 12-15 days, he's been a lot better at that."

Taylor will serve as a backup middle infielder and could get some playing time at other positions as well.

"It's still a progression, but I'm feeling a lot more comfortable and a lot better [at the plate]," Taylor said. "It was good to go down there and take some of the pressure off. I was able to stop pressing and just worry about going out there and having some fun again. I'm feeling a lot better now and I'm ready to go."


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Castro has started all but two games at shortstop this season, but he has been fairly unproductive after a bounce-back season in 2014. He owns a slash line of .263/.298/.341 with just 26 runs scored as midseason approaches.


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Travis had three singles, one RBI and one run Thursday. He continues to do well since coming off the DL on June 26, as he has hit safely in five of his first six games since returning. He is batting .381 (8 for 21) with two doubles, two RBI, four runs and two strikeouts in that span.


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Panik has 25 multihit games and 21 doubles through 77 appearances this season.


 
 
 
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