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2014 Fantasy Outlooks: San Diego Padres

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Overall, 2013 was another humdrum year for the Padres, as their 76-86 record gave them their third straight losing season and fifth out of the last six. The team played better after the All-Star break, and the improvement was fueled in large part by skill growth from starting pitchers Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross and late-season surges from outfielder Will Venable and third baseman Chase Headley. Over the course of the second half, the Padres found themselves on the right side of a .500 record, going 34-32.

Perhaps because of the relatively strong finish, some writers have tabbed the Padres as a wild card contender, but they are still lacking upper-echelon Fantasy talent. Everth Cabrera will likely be the Padres' most sought-after Fantasy entity, despite having ended his 2013 season with a 50-game suspension stemming from the Biogenesis investigation. Jedd Gyorko and Chase Headley may not be far behind Cabrera in the draft order, as all are likely to be middle-round targets. No other everyday player from the starting lineup is a must-draft in standard mixed leagues, though Will Venable and Carlos Quentin will find at least some homes in those formats. The same could be true for Yasmani Grandal, if he can stay ahead of schedule in his recovery from knee surgery.

2014 Fantasy Outlooks
A.L. East N.L. East
Orioles Braves
Red Sox Marlins
Yankees Mets
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Nationals
A.L. Central N.L. Central
White Sox Cubs
Indians Reds
Tigers Brewers
Royals Pirates
Twins Cardinals
A.L. West N.L. West
Astros Diamondbacks
Angels Rockies
Athletics Dodgers
Mariners Padres
Rangers Giants

Among pitchers, Cashner has the greatest Fantasy appeal, due to his mid-90s velocity (and thus, strikeout potential) and strong finish last season, when he compiled a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the second half. Though he struck out a modest 61 batters over 75 2/3 second-half innings, Cashner did get whiffs on 10 percent of his pitches while averaging a robust 6.9 innings per start. That efficiency will help Cashner in standard Head-to-Head formats, just as Tyson Ross' relief eligibility will. Ian Kennedy and Josh Johnson, the latter of whom was signed as a free agent this offseason, will likely attract less interest in standard mixed leagues, as both are coming off their worst seasons since becoming rotation staples, but neither is far removed from having been relevant in Fantasy.

Eric Stults is the leading candidate to begin the season as the Padres' No. 5 starter, but even with Cory Luebke likely needing a second Tommy John procedure and missing the 2014 season, there could eventually be competition. Robbie Erlin leads the charge of a deep group of young pitchers who could be ready to join the rotation.

Huston Street is set to start his third season as the Padres' closer, but the team has acquired plenty of depth to back up the injury-prone hurler. Though Luke Gregerson was dealt to the Athletics for outfielder Seth Smith, they signed Joaquin Benoit and traded for lefties Alex Torres and Patrick Schuster to provide reinforcements in the bullpen. Torres could also be a candidate for the rotation at some point, while Rule 5 pick Schuster is more likely to be relegated to a lefty specialist role, assuming he isn't returned to the Diamondbacks.

Though the Padres have the pieces to be a playoff contender, there may not be another team that has as many players with boom-or-bust potential. If Cabrera picks up where he left off, Gyorko, Cashner and Ross break out, and Headley, Kennedy and Johnson bounce back, the Friars will be a force to be reckoned with. The same could be true for Fantasy owners who draft these players, but each carries a substantial amount of risk.

Sleeper ... Will Venable, outfield

2014 projected lineup
Player Name Position
1. Everth Cabrera SS
2. Will Venable CF
3. Chase Headley 3B
4. Carlos Quentin LF
5. Yonder Alonso 1B
6. Jedd Gyorko 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal C
8. Seth Smith RF
Bench Kyle Blanks 1B/OF
Bench Cameron Maybin OF

Venable quietly became a top 30 Rotisserie outfielder in 2013, just one year after he barely cracked the top 60. Not only did he set a career-high with 515 plate appearances, but Venable shattered his personal best for home runs, clouting 22 (his previous high was 13 in 2010). Prior to last year, Venable's sole Fantasy asset was his moderate contribution to steals, and he didn't disappoint in that category, exceeding 20 for the fourth year in a row. The home run spike may not have been a fluke, though. He hit 15 homers at PETCO Park, which after bringing the right field fence in, now ranks as a top home run park for left-handed hitters, according to the 2014 Bill James Handbook. Owners may be used to viewing Venable as an afterthought in standard mixed leagues, but he could deliver tremendous value with a late-round pick, especially in Roto leagues.

Bounceback candidate ... Chase Headley, third base

After breaking out in 2012, Headley was a major letdown last season, as his home run, RBI and stolen base totals fell by more than half. It turns out that Headley played the whole season with a torn meniscus, which he had repaired in October. Even while being hampered by his knee and possibly also his thumb (which kept him out of action in the early part of the season), Headley still hit for decent power against lefties (nine doubles, two triples and five home runs in 149 at-bats). Entering 2014 fully healthy once again, owners could look forward to Headley coming much closer to his 2012 level of production, which was reflected in a .286/.376/.498 slash line. Because his output was so depressed a year ago, you can probably get Headley for the mere investment of a mid-round pick.

Head-to-Head hero ... Tyson Ross, starting pitcher

2014 rotation/bullpen
Player Name Throws
1. Ian Kennedy RHP
2. Andrew Cashner RHP
3. Josh Johnson RHP
4. Tyson Ross RHP
5. Eric Stults LHP
ALT Robbie Erlin LHP
Bullpen Breakdown
1. Huston Street RHP
2. Joaquin Benoit RHP
3. Alex Torres LHP
4. Nick Vincent RHP
5. Dale Thayer RHP

In early mocks, Ross is getting drafted well behind Cashner, but it's not unthinkable that the former Athletic could outperform his teammate. Cashner holds out the promise of becoming a strikeout-per-inning stud, but Ross actually delivered that performance during the second half of last season. Upon entering the Padres' rotation after the All-Star Break, Ross recorded a 2.93 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 80 innings over 13 starts. Had Ross carried his 14 percent swinging strike rate from that span over the entire season, he would have had a higher rate than Yu Darvish. It's hard to believe that Ross could maintain that pace over a full season, but even with regression, you have to love his strikeout potential. Oh ... and he's dual-eligible in Head-to-Head leagues, so you can get that production out of a relief spot in those formats. Yikes.

Prospects Report

Burch Smith, Keyvius Sampson and Casey Kelly are all part of a system deep in major-league-ready starting pitching, and each could get a trial in the Padres' rotation in 2014. Kelly will first have to complete his recovery from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in April last year. Matthew Wisler has yet to reach Triple-A, but he has the most potential of the group and could make his debut this season. ... Austin Hedges gets rave reviews for his prowess behind the plate, but he hasn't shown much offense in the minors. Even with a potential late-season callup in his future, single-season owners can ignore him. ... Rymer Liriano, like Kelly, lost 2013 to Tommy John surgery. He could be a serious stolen base threat within a year or two, depending on how well he bounces back this year. ... Pitchers Max Fried and Joe Ross (Tyson's brother), as well as outfielder Hunter Renfroe, have not blown away the lower minors statistically, but each possesses tools that could bring them greater success as they climb the organizational ladder. Don't sweat the stats and look to target each in dynasty leagues.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al at @almelccbs .

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Player News
Rangers DH Mitch Moreland (elbow) hopes to return to lineup on Saturday
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(2:03 am ET) Rangers designated hitter Mitch Moreland sat out of Friday's game against the Mariners with a sore elbow but said afterwards that he's feeling better and hopes to play Saturday, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Moreland has played in nine of the Rangers' 11 games this season, hitting .259 with a homer, two doubles and five RBI.


Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw strikes out 12 Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(2:01 am ET) Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw struck out a season-high 12 batters and only walked one during Friday's win over the Rockies.

Kershaw surrendered three runs (one earned) on six hits over six innings of work to earn the win. Kershaw's lone blemish were home runs to Troy Tulowitzki and Charlie Blackmon. He was able to lower his ERA from 5.84 to 4.42. Kershaw (1-1) has yet to throw more than seven innings in any of his three starts this season.

His next expected start will be Wednesday at San Francisco.


Rangers reliever Neftali Feliz throws perfect ninth for second save
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(1:55 am ET) Rangers reliever Neftali Feliz (S, 2) collected his second save of the season on Friday by throwing a perfect ninth inning against the Mariners.

Dodgers 2B Howie Kendrick drives in three during Friday's win
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:50 am ET) Dodgers second baseman Howie Kendrick connected on his first home run of the season to help lead the Dodgers to a victory over the Rockies on Friday.

Kendrick hit a two-run home run off Rockies starter Kyle Kendrick in the first inning of the game. Kendrick finished the game 2 for 4 with three RBI. He is now batting .342 on the season.


Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki hits first home run of season Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:48 am ET) Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki connected on his first home run of the season during Friday's loss to the Dodgers.

Tulowitzki hit the home run in the fourth inning off Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw. Tulowitzki finished the game with two hits over four at-bats. His batting average now stands at .359. 


Rockies pitcher Kyle Kendrick gives up six runs Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:46 am ET) Rockies pitcher Kyle Kendrick failed to get past the fifth inning during Friday's loss to the Dodgers.

Kendrick's troubles began in the first inning when Howie Kendrick hit a two-run home run. Kendrick did not surrender a run over the next two innings. However, he gave up one run in the fourth and was pulled in the fifth after giving up two more runs. He ended up with six strike outs and four walks. 

Kendrick (1-2) received the loss for his 4 2/3 innings of work and now has a 7.56 ERA. His next scheduled start is expected to be Wednesday against the Padres.


Diamondbacks SP Josh Collmenter shuts out Giants on Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:38 am ET) Diamondbacks pitcher Josh Collmenter threw a complete game shutout to defeat the Giants on Friday.

Over the nine innings of work, Collmenter gave up four hits while striking out two and walking one. He is the first pitcher to toss a complete game this season.

Collmenter had failed to get past the fifth inning in each of his previous starts this season and was 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA heading into the game. He was able to lower his ERA to 3.86. He had one complete game shutout during the entire 2014 season.

His next scheduled start is expected to be Friday against the Pirates.


Diamondbacks CF A.J. Pollock collects four hits Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:35 am ET) Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock had his first four-hit game of the season to lead the Diamondbacks to a 9-0 win over the Giants on Friday.

Pollock went 4 for 5 with one walk and a strikeout. His lone RBI came in the top of the ninth inning when he drove in pitcher Josh Collmenter on a double. Pollock was able to raise his batting average from .265 to .333.


Red Sox's Pablo Sandoval not sorry about slide that lead to beaning
by Ted Leshinski | Staff Writer
(1:33 am ET) Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez was ejected Friday for hitting Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval with a pitch as suspected payback for a hard slide by Sandoval earlier in the game, according to BostonHerald.com.

"It’s the game ... I do clean slides," Sandoval said. "I slide through the base. There’s nothing wrong with that.”

First baseman Mike Napoli added that Sandoval’s slide was in line with the way the Red Sox like to play.

Giants P Jake Peavy fails to get past fourth inning Friday
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1:30 am ET) Giants pitcher Jake Peavy was able to get through the first two innings of Friday's loss to the Diamondbacks without any trouble, but he began to unravel in the third.

Peavy surrendered four hits and three runs during the third inning. He returned for the fourth, but was only able to record two outs before he was taken out of the game.

"I didn't make good pitches. I was plenty good enough to be out there. I've gotta help the team more than I did," he said, per CSN Bay Area. 

Over the 3 2/3 innings of work, Peavy gave up four runs on eight hits. He walked one and struck out two.

Peavy has yet to get past the fourth inning in each of his two starts this season. He is now 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA.

His next scheduled start is expected to be Thursday against the Dodgers


 
 
 
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