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2014 Draft Prep: Targeting mid-round bargains

Michael Hurcomb
Fantasy Writer
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Listen, do me a favor. Will you please call up the results from your baseball draft(s) last year and do a search for Matt Harvey? Go ahead. I'll give you a few minutes ... Done?

OK, now it's time to let out a big "D'oh!" when you realize all the players you drafted before Harvey, who finished with 513 Fantasy points in Head-to-Head leagues.

Don't worry -- I'm guilty of making the same mistake. Yes, your dear friend and Fantasy analyst -- Big Hurc -- was part of the crowd that overlooked Harvey on Draft Day last year.

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Let me tell you how bad it was in some of my leagues ...

In an 8-team NL-only league, Harvey went in the 10th round. My eighth-round pick was Ike Davis and my ninth-round selection was Ryan Howard. Ouch.

Harvey went in the 12th round in a 12-team Head-to-Head league. My 10th-round pick was Dan Haren. Yeah.

In an 18-team Head-to-Head league, an owner was much wiser and took Harvey in the ninth round. My selections in the two previous rounds were Miguel Montero and Howard. I guess the only saving grace here is that I survived some bad decisions and made it all the way to the semifinals, despite some questionable mid-round picks.

However, don't make it a habit of wasting your mid-round picks -- it's a part of the draft where you don't want to make too many mistakes. The early rounds feature the boom-or-bust players. The late rounds feature the sleepers. But the middle rounds? That's the breakout range, where you can really influence how your season will unfold.

Hey, you might have missed on Harvey last season, but go back and look at some of your mid-round steals.

Some of my best mid-round picks were Shelby Miller (10th) and Domonic Brown (14th) in the 8-team NL-only league; Hunter Pence (11th) in the 12-team Head-to-Head league; Hisashi Iwakuma (10th) and Julio Teheran (12th) in the 18-team Head-to-Head league; and perhaps my best run of mid-round picks came in a 12-team Rotisserie format where I took Aroldis Chapman in the seventh round, David Ortiz in the eighth round, Paul Goldschmidt in the ninth round and Mark Trumbo in the 10th round.

The 2014 draft season is here, so it's time to put away the "Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda" regrets of 2013 and prepare for the season ahead. To help you reduce the chances of missing out on this year's Matt Harvey, we go around the horn to highlight the bumper crop of mid-round picks you need to have on your radar right now.

Salvador Perez, C, Royals

2014 CBSSports.com projections: .304/.334/.460, 14 HR, 27 2B, 55 R, 75 RBI, 21 BB, 52 K
ADP: 14th round
Analysis: Catcher used to be a position where if you didn't grab one of the elite options, then you usually punted the position. Not anymore. There are still a few elite options -- Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana -- but there is depth at the position, so you shouldn't feel compelled to reach in the early rounds for a catcher if you want to target elite options at other positions. Perez is a guy who is going to slip into the middle rounds and should deliver Fantasy owners good value. He was up-and-down through the first four months last season, but had a strong finish, batting .318 with a .526 slugging percentage, .872 OPS, seven doubles, nine home runs and 37 RBI in 49 games over the final two months. Even with poor offensive numbers through the first four months, Perez finished as the eighth-highest scoring Fantasy catcher in Head-to-Head leagues and 10th-highest in Rotisserie formats. He's a popular pick for a breakout season in 2014.
Other mid-round bargains: Evan Gattis, Braves; Brian McCann, Yankees; Wilson Ramos, Nationals

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants

2014 CBSSports.com projections:.282/.355/.484, 18 HR, 37 2B, 71 RBI, 74 R, 58 BB, 121 K
ADP: 18th round
Analysis: Paul Goldschmidt was the Harvey of first base last season, ending up as one of the greatest Draft Day steals for a player that primarily went in the middle rounds. It's going to be difficult to find another Goldschmidt -- who is now considered the consensus No. 1 Fantasy first baseman heading into 2014 -- this season, but first base is a very deep position. Belt has largely been disappointing since breaking into the majors in 2011, but he might finally be ready for a breakout campaign. Belt made some tweaks to his approach last season, changing his grip on the bat and standing farther back in the box, which provided great results down the stretch. He hit .346 with a .576 slugging percentage, .984 OPS, three triples, seven home runs, 17 doubles and 28 RBI in his last 52 games. He averaged 19.6 Fantasy points in the final eight scoring periods. If he averaged that over 26 scoring periods last season, he would have finished with 510 Fantasy points, which would have made him the fifth-highest scoring Fantasy first baseman ahead of the likes of Prince Fielder, Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer.
Other mid-round bargains: Jose Abreu, White Sox; Matt Adams, Cardinals; Mike Napoli, Red Sox; Anthony Rizzo, Cubs; Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks

Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona

2014 CBSSports.com projections:.277/.333/.466, 22 HR, 36 2B, 79 RBI, 88 R, 47 BB, 80 K
ADP: 11th round
Analysis: Jedd Gyorko is another player with breakout potential who's likely going to fall into the middle rounds, but you will hear a lot more about him from my boy Nando Di Fino, so instead we will highlight Hill, who could be a good value pick -- if he can stay healthy. Hill got hurt early last season, breaking his hand eight games into the 2013 campaign. It was an injury that lingered all season, but he still managed to hit .291 with a .462 slugging percentage in 87 games. Hill has been frustratingly inconsistent throughout his career, but when he's on offensively, he can hang with the top options at second base. In 2012, he was the second-highest scoring Fantasy second baseman in H2H and Roto leagues behind Robinson Cano. I don't actually recommend passing over second base with options like Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Carpenter, Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler, Martin Prado and Ben Zobrist available. However, if you miss out in H2H leagues on any of those players or need a middle-infield option in Roto formats, then players like Gyorko and Hill could be Draft Day steals.
Other mid-round bargains: Jose Altuve, Astros; Daniel Murphy, Mets; Jed Lowrie, Athletics; Jurickson Profar, Rangers

Brad Miller, SS, Mariners

2014 CBSSports.com projections:.274/.342/.424, 15 HR, 26 2B, 49 RBI, 84 R, 60 BB, 102 K
ADP: 16th round
Analysis: Shortstop is one of those positions where there is going to be a big gap between the top options and the rest of the bunch. Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez will be gone by the second round. Jose Reyes, Ian Desmond, Jean Segura, Ben Zobrist and Elvis Andrus won't be far behind, but after that it could be a few more rounds before you see another shortstop go off the board. Among the cluster of mid-round shortstops is Miller, who is entering his second season in the majors. Miller has upside (.334/.409/.516/.925 minors slash line) and while his overall stat line from last season doesn't look overly appealing, he had just one of 14 scoring periods with less than 10 Fantasy points. If you stretch out his weekly Fantasy average for the entire 2013 season, he finishes with 394 Fantasy points, which would put him right behind Andrelton Simmons (397 points), who is another popular mid-round pick.
Other mid-round bargains: Starlin Castro, Cubs; Andrelton Simmons, Braves; J.J. Hardy, Orioles; Jed Lowrie, Athletics; Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians

Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners

2014 CBSSports.com projections: .267/.330/.435, 24 HR, 30 2B, 81 RBI, 76 R, 58 BB, 111 K
ADP: 10th round
Analysis: Third base is a position you will want to make a priority while you're drafting. It's highly recommended you use an early pick on any of these options: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Adrian Beltre, Matt Carpenter, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Martin Prado or Josh Donaldson. After that, you are just hoping and praying your pick works out. Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of bounceback candidates (Chase Headley, Aramis Ramirez) and sleepers (Xander Bogaerts, Nolan Arenado) at third base, but you know the upside you can get with those high-end options. If you do choose to wait, Seager is an intriguing pick. He was a monster in the first half last season, posting a .293/.359/.488/.846 slash line, before enduring a second-half slide (.212/.309/.336/.645). Still, Seager finished as the seventh-highest scoring third baseman in H2H leagues and 10th-highest in Roto formats. Seager is just entering the prime of his career, and the revamped Mariners lineup could provide him the protection and offensive opportunities to help him sustain those good numbers for an entire season.
Other mid-round bargains: Manny Machado, Orioles; Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox; Pablo Sandoval, Giants; Chase Headley, Padres; Pedro Alvarez, Pirates; Aramis Ramirez, Brewers

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Yankees

2014 CBSSports.com projections: .250/.302/.467, 31 HR, 33 2B, 94 RBI, 79 R, 44 BB, 169 K
ADP: 12th round
Analysis: Outfield is a position loaded with high-end Fantasy bats. There's a good chance you could end up with two outfielders through the first five rounds. I've never been hesitant to take that strategy, if an outfielder is the best player available when my turn in the draft comes up, but it's such a deep position that you are going to be happy with the quality of players you get in the middle-to-late rounds. I could talk about all the young, high-upside players in this group (Christian Yelich, Billy Hamilton, Leonys Martin) but you already know about the high-reward prospects. Whereas a player like Soriano, who might no longer outproduce his draft position, has enough power to still be useful in Fantasy. Soriano hit for a low average and struck out a lot after rejoining the Yankees last summer, but he slugged .525 with 17 home runs and 50 RBI in 58 games. He thrived at Yankee Stadium, slugging .558 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 30 games. Imagine what he might do with a full season at Yankee Stadium.
Other mid-round bargains: Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics; Josh Hamilton, Angels; Alex Gordon, Royals; Curtis Granderson, Mets; Shane Victorino, Red Sox; Desmond Jennings, Rays; Leonys Martin, Rangers; Evan Gattis, Braves; Carlos Beltran, Yankees; Billy Hamilton, Reds; Nelson Cruz, Free Agent; Carl Crawford, Dodgers; Austin Jackson, Tigers; Dexter Fowler, Astros; Christian Yelich, Marlins; Michael Cuddyer, Rockies

Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox

2014 CBSSports.com projections: 12-8, 3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 138 K, 57 BB, 170 innings (26 starts)
ADP: 11th round
Analysis: You are going to want to grab an ace starting pitcher -- or maybe two -- within the first five rounds, but you will find a lot of quality arms throughout the draft, including the late rounds. In some cases, you could even see the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Mike Minor, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Shields and Jered Weaver start to fall in the mid-rounds. It would have been easy to highlight a player like Michael Wacha or Tony Cingrani here, but their sky-high upside is well-documented. Buchholz is an interesting character because he could fall into the late rounds of some drafts due to his past injury issues, but he really delivered for Fantasy owners when he was healthy last season. Of the 13 scoring periods he was active, he had less than 20 Fantasy points just once, averaging 27.5 Fantasy points per scoring period. If you stretch that out over 26 scoring periods, Buchholz finishes with 715 Fantasy points, which was more than Clayton Kershaw (705). Obviously, we don't know his season would have unfolded quite that way had he remained healthy, but it certainly gives you a glimpse at the kind of campaign he was having before injuries derailed things for him. Injury is still a significant risk, but if he can stay on the mound, could be the steal of your draft.
Other mid-round bargains: Matt Moore, Rays; Michael Wacha, Cardinals; Francisco Liriano, Pirates; Alex Cobb, Rays; Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees; Homer Bailey, Reds; Gerrit Cole, Pirates; Jon Lester, Red Sox; Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks; Shelby Miller, Cardinals; Jeff Samardzija, Cubs; R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays; Justin Masterson, Indians; Taijuan Walker, Mariners; C.J. Wilson, Angels; Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers; Tony Cingrani, Reds; Kris Medlen, Braves; CC Sabathia, Yankees

Grant Balfour, RP, Rays

2014 CBSSports.com projections: 3-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 37 saves, 65 K, 25 BB, 64 innings (66 appearances)
ADP: 15th round
Analysis: Essentially, all relievers are mid-round Fantasy picks. Though, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland might creep into the late early rounds in Rotisserie drafts. But the point to make here is that you shouldn't reach for closers or chase saves in Fantasy because this is a position of great value in the mid-to-late rounds. Balfour is arguably one of the more underrated closers in baseball, but the spotlight could turn his way very soon since he's now on a team known for having strong closers. Since 2008, the Rays as a team have finished with less than 40 saves just once (2011). In fact, they had 50 or more saves in 2008, 2010 and 2012, so the opportunities should be there for the veteran right-hander. Balfour has been pretty good the last four years, posting a 2.47 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He is also striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings in that span.
Other mid-round bargains: Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals; Glen Perkins, Twins; David Robertson, Yankees; Fernando Rodney, Mariners; Rafael Soriano, Nationals; Jason Grilli, Pirates; Steve Cishek, Marlins; Alex Wood, Braves; Drew Smyly, Tigers; Tyson Ross, Padres (The last three are for those of you in Head-to-Head leagues because they are starters with relief-pitcher eligibility, or as we like to call them ... SPARPS!)

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Player News
Report: Rangers showing interest in Brandon Beachy
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:57 pm ET) The Rangers have shown interest in pitcher Brandon Beachy, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Beachy is coming off Tommy John surgery, but multiple teams are said to have interest in signing him. The 28-year-old has a 3.23 career ERA over 267 2/3 innings, but underwent his second Tommy John surgery in March. Beachy's representative, Robert Martin said Beachy has multiple offers, but doesn't believe a decision is imminent. 


Report: Athletics sending Derek Norris to Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:46 pm ET) The Athletics have agreed to trade catcher Derek Norris to the Padres, according to the New York Daily News.

After dealing Yasmani Grandal to Los Angeles in the Matt Kemp deal, the Padres were in need of a new backstop. It didn't take long for them to replace Grandal, as the team acquired Norris shortly after the Kemp deal went through.

Pitcher Seth Streich will also head to the Padres in the deal, according to FoxSports.com The 23-year-old posted a 3.16 ERA over 114 innings in High A last season.

The 25-year-old Norris is coming off a season in which he hit .270/.361/.403 over 385 at-bats. Norris is under team control through the 2018 season.

The Athletics are expected to receive pitchers Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez in the deal, according to Yahoo! The 24-year-old Alvarez posted a 1.25 ERA over 43 1/3 innings at Double-A last year.

Hahn, 25, posted a 3.07 ERA over 73 1/3 innings in the majors last year. He was excellent in Double-A, posting a 1.91 ERA in 42 1/3 innings before being called up.


Padres, Rays and Nationals complete Wil Myers trade
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:45 pm ET) The Padres, Rays and Nationals have completed a trade that will send Wil Myers to San Diego, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

The deal had been in the works for a few days, but was finally agreed to late Thursday night. Myers, 24, will head to the Padres in the deal. He hit .222/.294/.320 over 325 at-bats with the Rays last season. Myers also missed time due to a wrist injury. 

The Padres will also receive catcher Ryan Hanigan and pitchers Gerardo Reyes and Jose Castillo in the deal. 

Tampa Bay will receive outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Travis Ott from the Nationals. Souza, 25, hit .345/.427/.577 in 357 at-bats spread over three levels last year. 

The Rays will also receive catcher Rene Rivera, first baseman Jake Bauers and pitcher Burch Smith from San Diego.

Washington is set to acquire pitcher Joe Ross from San Diego. The team will also receive infielder Trea Turner in the deal. Turner was a 2014 draft pick, and cannot be traded until midseason, so he's currently considered a player to be named later.


Phillies to send Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:20 pm ET) The Phillies have completed a trade that will send shortstop Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. News that the deal was finally going through was initially reported by Yahoo!

The deal has been in place for some time, but was dependent on a separate Dodgers deal going through. The Dodgers will send pitcher Zach Eflin to Philadelphia as part of the Rollins trade, but first needed to acquire Eflin from the Padres in the Matt Kemp deal. The Dodgers and Padres finally reached an agreement late Thursday night, meaning Eflin could finally be sent to Philadelphia. The 20-year-old Eflin posted a 3.80 ERA in 128 innings at High A last year.

Rollins, 36, hit .243/.323/.394 over 538 at-bats last season. He's in the final year of his contract, and is set to make $11 million next year.


Dodgers complete Matt Kemp deal with Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(9:16 pm ET) The Dodgers and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send outfielder Matt Kemp to San Diego, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. News that the deal had finally come together was first reported by Yahoo!

The trade has been in the works for some time, but was dependent on Kemp passing a physical. It was reported early Thursday that Kemp's physical revealed arthritic hips. The Padres had to to figure out insurance on the contract, which is why it took so long for the deal to go through.

Catcher Tim Federowicz will also head to San Diego in the deal. The Dodgers will send $32 million over as well. 

In return, Los Angeles is set to receive catcher Yasmani Grandal and pitcher Joe Weiland and Zach Eflin. Eflin is expected to be flipped to Philadelphia for shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

The 30-year-old Kemp hit .287/.346/.506 over 541 at-bats last year. Kemp is set to earn a little over $21 million in each of the next five seasons. 


Rockies seeking veteran right-handers to fill out rotation
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:53 pm ET) The Rockies are looking at a number of veteran right-handers to fill out the rotation, according to MLB.com.

Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, Josh Johnson and Kyle Kendrick have all been considered by the club. With Johnson reportedly signing a deal with the Padres, that leaves the other three as options for the club. Though the team is said to be interested in all three players, it has not engaged in serious conversations with any of them. 


Cubs agree to sign Anthony Carter
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(7:26 pm ET) The Cubs have signed reliever Anthony Carter to a minor-league deal, according to MLBTradeRumors.com.

Carter spent last season in Japan, pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters. He posted a 3.97 ERA over 45 1/3 innings. 


Padres to sign Josh Johnson
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(6:48 pm ET) The Padres are set to sign pitcher Josh Johnson to a one-year deal, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. Yahoo initially reported the two sides were on the verge of a deal.

Johnson will make a base salary under $2 million, but can earn as much as $8 million due to incentives. Given his recent injury issues, it's assumed those incentives will revolve around both his numbers and his ability to remain healthy. Johnson signed with San Diego last season, but was unable to pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The team declined his option during the offseason, but showed interest in re-signing Johnson to a lesser deal.

Johnson posted a 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings with Toronto in 2013. 


A's C Stephen Vogt expects to be ready for opening day
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(6:18 pm ET) Athletics catcher Stephen Vogt believes he'll be ready for opening day, according to MLB.com.

Vogt had foot surgery in October, but had his walking boot removed Thursday. Vogt admitted that he may not be 100 percent by spring training, but said he expects to be ready for opening day. After playing multiple positions due to the injury last season, Vogt said he's eager to get behind the plate again. 

The 30-year-old Vogt hit .279/.321/.431 over 269 at-bats last year. 


Josh Johnson on the verge of signing with Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(6:03 pm ET) The Padres are on the verge of a one-year deal with pitcher Josh Johnson, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. The deal was first reported by Yahoo!

The two sides are still figuring out the details of the contract, but it's assumed it will include incentives based on games started. Johnson signed with the club last offseason, but did not pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. The Padres declined an option on Johnson following the season, but expressed a desire to bring him back at a cheaper price. 


 
 
 
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