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2014 Draft Prep: Sleepers, 1.0

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Scott White's sleepers | Nando Di Fino's sleepers

Practically as soon as one season ends, the process of looking for value for next season begins. And now next season is almost here, so the time is upon us to put our money -- or at least our auction dollars and draft picks -- where our mouths are.

What follows are my 12 favorite pre-spring sleeper picks, the players whom I expect to deliver the greatest return on my investment of a bid or pick, based on my offseason research. As the spring progresses, some of these players may lose their sleeper appeal, while others who didn't make the cut this time might look like better values a few weeks from now. So this is just version 1.0, with the upgrade to come in the weeks ahead.

Not only will players' value relative to draft position change due to health issues or role changes that could arise, but also because of changes in perception. This list was made in reference to average draft position (ADP) in CBSSports.com leagues, but at this point only a limited number of leagues have drafted, so I'm also relying on the rankings of other industry experts as well as feedback received from our readers, viewers and listeners to get a sense of what the market's expectations are.

These dozen players, then, are the ones I expect to be drafting often, if not early. Of course, early is relative, so while I will have no reservations about spending an early-round pick on Alex Rios or Jose Altuve, I won't need to in order to enjoy the value of Brian Dozier or Steve Cishek. Being sleepers, though, all of them are players I can wait at least an extra round or two to fill a need that I would otherwise need to fill with my next pick.

Along with their current ADP, for each player, I'll explain why I think he is worth targeting at the expense of pursuing a more popular option.

John Jaso, C, Athletics (Roto: N/A, H2H: N/A)

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Jaso's inclusion on this list has as much to do with events impacting his teammates as with what he has actually done on the field. When the A's signaled their intention to let Stephen Vogt and Derek Norris do most of the catching in a platoon, relegating Jaso to designated hitting duties, Jaso's Fantasy value improved. Coming off a concussion as well as a disappointing season in that he did not build on his double-digit homer total from 2012, Jaso is probably not registering on the minds of very many mixed league owners. Particularly in two-catcher leagues, he should, at least as a late- round option. Jaso should collect even more plate appearances than he did when he was part of the Mariners' catcher/DH mix in 2012. That season he was a top 20 Roto catcher, and with just a little more power than last year, he could be again in 2014.

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros (Roto: Rd. 5, H2H: Rd. 12)

Altuve is still only 23, so there could be time for him to develop the double-digit home run power he showed in the minors. Even if he doesn't, the Astros' fourth-year second baseman can be counted on for enough steals and runs to be in the top five at his position in Roto leagues and the top 10 in Head-to-Head. Altuve's Head-to-Head value is boosted by his low strikeout rate, and that translates into a batting average that is unlikely to be no worse than .270 and could hover around .300 -- a potential boon for Roto owners. If everything comes together -- a .300 average, 10-15 home runs and 40-plus steals -- Altuve would have a breakout season that would elevate him into Jason Kipnis territory in terms of value. Without the breakout, Altuve is still a sleeper as he could be overlooked in favor of more established options like Brandon Phillips and Ben Zobrist.

Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins (Roto: Rd. 13, H2H: Rd. 17)

Dozier is a less proven and riskier second base alternative than Altuve, and as such, he shouldn't be targeted among the top 10 players at the position. Judging by the early draft results, many owners are letting 15 other second basemen get taken ahead of Dozier, but last season's power spike makes him someone to consider above the likes of Chase Utley and Jed Lowrie. Because Dozier profiled as more of a doubles hitter as a prospect, it may be hard to take his home run surge seriously, but he was an entirely different hitter last year. He was far more patient, averaging 4.17 pitches per plate appearance (versus 3.69 in 2012) and chasing fewer pitches outside the zone. Longer plate appearances correlate with home run power, so it seems like more than a coincidence that Dozier found some home run moxie. He seems like a lock for double-digit steals, so Roto owners in particular should look to Dozier as a mid-round fallback option.

Alex Rios, OF, Rangers (Roto: Rd. 2, H2H: 5)

Rios' miserable 2011 season is still fresh in a lot of our minds, so it's hard to imagine many owners saying, "Yeah, I think I'll draft Alex Rios as my No. 1 outfielder this year." It's not an optimal move, but if you miss out on the very limited number of reliable producers -- the ones without significant injury risk, major inconsistency or possible past benefits from PED use (i.e., Ryan Braun) -- Rios has one of the better recent track records. He has been among the top six outfielders in Fantasy in each of the last two years, and 2009 and 2011 have been the only real clunkers out of his last eight seasons. Rios has also been largely durable over that stretch. With the aggressive Ron Washington at the helm in Texas, Rios can continue the heightened steals pace he set late last season, and he has enough power and run production to keep him among the near-elite.

Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (Roto: Rd. 4, H2H: Rd. 8)

With a hamstring injury shelving Werth for nearly all of May and some of June last year, it looked like he was about to lose another season due to health woes. Once he returned, though, he did so with a vengeance. Even factoring in a tepid month of April, Werth batted a career-high .318 and put himself on a pace for 30-plus homers and doubles with 100-plus runs and RBI, had he played a full season. Not only did he set that pace even after having a slow start, but his .292 batting average with runners in scoring position makes his run (84) and RBI (82) totals look sustainable. Werth's average will regress somewhat, since he probably won't approach a 31 percent line drive rate again, but he has become a better contact hitter over the last two years. With his wrist and hamstring issues behind him, owners could look forward to a full season of strong power and run production with double-digit steals to boot. He's a sneaky play as someone you can draft as a No. 2 or 3 outfielder but who may produce like a No. 1.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds (Roto: Rd. 5, H2H: Rd. 13)

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I'm generally not a fan of one-dimensional players, but it's worthwhile to make the occasional exception in Roto leagues, if that player can help you move up substantially in a category. This is what Hamilton can do. He didn't hit particularly well last season in Triple-A, batting .256 with a .308 on-base percentage, yet he still managed to steal 75 bases in 123 games. As the Reds' projected leadoff hitter, he should get plenty of plate appearances and stolen base opportunities, and his speed could allow him to improve his batting average by way of frequent infield hits. Of course, there is the risk that he doesn't hit well enough to keep the leadoff role or maybe even his job, but Hamilton's 70-plus steals potential is literally a game-changer, making him worth drafting among the top 20 outfielders in Roto leagues.

Will Venable, OF, Padres (Roto: Rd. 17, H2H: Rd. N/A)

Venable emerged as a surprise entry in the 20-20 club last season, which elevated him to membership among the top 30 outfielders in Roto value. So far he's not being drafted anywhere near that level, yet there is reason to think last season won't be an outlier on Venable's career stat sheet. His home run power in away games actually decreased slightly last year, but he exploded for 15 homers at PETCO Park (as compared to two in the prior year). After the right field fences were brought in prior to last season, the Padres' home stadium became much more amenable for Venable -- and other lefties -- to mash balls out of the park. There's also room for Venable to improve his run production, as he is all but certain to increase his .204 batting average with men in scoring position from 2013. If he makes it much past the top 30 outfielders chosen in Roto leagues, you shouldn't wait too much longer to snag him.

Julio Teheran, SP, Braves (Roto: Rd. 9, H2H: Rd. 5)

With so many young ex-prospects filling up the starting pitcher pool, Teheran could get lost in the shuffle, especially since the novelty of him being a major leaguer has worn off after 211 2/3 innings. Like Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha and Sonny Gray, Teheran has the goods to provide more than a strikeout per inning. He may not have quite as much strikeout prowess as Tony Cingrani or Danny Salazar, but like both, he's a flyball pitcher poised to produce a low BABIP, and like Salazar, he will likely issue walks at a lower rate than his phenom brethren. Inning for inning, Salazar and Cingrani are probably the best of this group, but Teheran should surpass them by pitching at least 30 more innings than either of them. So to summarize, Teheran is a low-ERA strikeout pitcher uniquely primed to offer a low WHIP and high innings count. That's why I'd be happy to have him as my No. 2 starter in a standard mixed league, though you may be able to still get him after 25 or 30 starting pitchers are off the board.

Corey Kluber, SP, Indians (Roto: Rd. 14, H2H: Rd. 12)

Something of a late bloomer, Kluber didn't benefit from prospect hype, and his reputation still lags behind his performance, but he is essentially Teheran Lite. Kluber possesses great control and he's a better-than-average strikeout pitcher. Not only might he be underappreciated due to his lack of prospect cred, but Kluber likely left Fantasy owners underwhelmed by a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP last year. A 26 percent line drive rate inflated both marks, but regression in that metric should lead to improvements in both ERA and WHIP. Kluber has the makings of a top 30 starting pitcher, but he could easily fall outside the top 40 in draft order.

Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants (Roto: Rd. 19, H2H: Rd. 13)

Lincecum's stock has plummeted over the past two seasons, but while expectations may not have rebounded since the latter half of last season, he started inching his way back towards his Cy Young form. He's not there yet; Lincecum is still allowing too many home runs and throwing too many pitches out of the zone. However, he did allow far fewer walks in the second half last season, and he never really lost his touch with missing bats. Lincecum may never recapture the elite status he enjoyed in 2008 and 2009, but signs of improved control are reason enough to keep him on your radar, and not just as a late-round flier.

Scott Kazmir, SP, Athletics (Roto: Rd. 22, H2H: Rd. 19)

Kazmir was outstanding from mid-June forward last season with the Indians, compiling a 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 107 strikeouts in 103 innings, but owners could still be reluctant to trust the lefty. After all, it was his first good season in five years, and his career may be most notable for the time he has missed with injuries. If Kazmir's final 18 starts could be dismissed as a fluke, it would make sense to focus more on the risk than the reward, but there were some impressive supporting stats backing up that low ERA and WHIP. The once-wild Kazmir threw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes and got swings-and-misses on 11 percent of all pitches. Because it's asking for a high degree of faith to draft the A's lefty on these 18 starts alone, I'm not recommending he should be drafted alongside early-rounders like Madison Bumgarner, who put up similar stats to those of Kazmir's from his extended hot streak, but he is worth taking among the top 50 starters.

Steve Cishek, RP, Marlins (Roto: Rd. 11, H2H: Rd. 17)

With only 36 save chances, Cishek did not distinguish himself among Fantasy closers last season, but with improved control and continued strong ground ball tendencies (and a home park that further squelches homers), he did what he could to help owners. Cishek appears to be a safe bet to post another low 2.00s ERA with a WHIP not too far above 1.00, and the Marlins' offense may be just improved enough to give their closer more save opportunities. In fact, they could be in enough close games that he gets a lot of save opportunities. Cishek likely won't be drafted among the top 15 closers in many leagues, but he could easily deliver better production than more popular closers, such as Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour and Jim Johnson.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al at @almelccbs .

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Player News
Giants C Buster Posey extends hit streak to 16 games
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(9:22 pm ET) There weren't many bright spots in the Giants' 11-2 loss to the Rockies on Sunday, but one was that catcher Buster Posey extended his hitting streak to 16 games. 

Posey waited until the ninth inning to keep his streak alive, singling to right field to finish 1-for-3 on the evening. Posey's career-high hit streak remains 21 games, which he accomplished in 2010. 

The catcher is hitting .310/.382/.468 on the season. 


3B Nolan Arenado's huge day fuels Rockies in romp
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(9:15 pm ET) Third baseman Nolan Arenado helped spark the Rockies' offense to a big performance against the Giants, as he went 4-for-5 with 4 RBIs in Colorado's 11-2 victory Sunday. 

Arenado scored the Rockies' first two runs and then put the capper on Colorado's eight-run fourth inning with a three-run homer, his eighth of the season. 

Arenado fell just a double short of the cycle, as he hit his first triple of the season. All four of Arenado's RBIs came with two outs, as he lifted his average to .275 on the season. 


Mets pitcher Bobby Parnell tosses scoreless inning in Double-A rehab
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8:57 pm ET) Mets pitcher Bobby Parnell tossed one scoreless inning on Sunday for Double-A Binghamton as a part of his rehab assignment. Parnell allowed one hit with one strikeout and no walks in his appearance.

Parnell is currently on the 15-day DL with an elbow injury. He has thrown one inning so far this season, posting a 9.00 ERA with a walk and a strikeout.


Tigers RP Bruce Rondon retires side in rehab appearance
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(8:49 pm ET) Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon, making his second rehab outing since going on the disabled list with biceps tendinitis, threw an efficient inning Sunday for Triple-A Toledo, per MLB.com. 

Rondon needed just 10 pitches to work through his inning, twice hitting 98 mph on the radar gun. The reliever has been on the DL since Opening Day, and will travel with the Mud Hens on their 10-game road trip, where he likely will make three more rehab appearances. 


Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal to serve as DH in Triple-A rehab
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8:47 pm ET) Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal will begin his Triple-A rehab assignment with Oklahoma City on Monday against Salt Lake and serve as the designated hitter, according to the Los Angeles News Group.

Grandal is currently on the 7-day DL after suffering a concussion when he took a bat to the head on Saturday. Grandal is hitting .291 with 17 RBI in 103 at-bats and could be activated as soon as he's eligible.


Phillies rookie Odubel Herrera continues to struggle in the field
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:41 pm ET) Phillies rookie outfielder Odubel Herrera continues to have problems with his glove. Herrera misplayed balls in two of the three games over the weekend, leading to runs for the Nationals. Manager Ryne Sanberg believes it has something to do with the walls in Washington, according to Philly.com.

"I've seen balls come off firm and I'm seen them come off where they die off the wall. That's knowing the outfield wall and how the balls come off," Sandberg said. "It's all part of the learning process for him."

Herrera made another mistake on Sunday when he misjudged a pop up from Darin Ruf in the seventh. Herrera waited too long to make his move toward second and was gunned down by Bryce Harper.

"We want to favor the runner getting to second base instead of having to be that far to go once it dropped in," Sandberg said. "Could have been a big play."


Mets pitcher Matt Harvey may be dealing with 'dead arm'
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8:16 pm ET) Mets pitcher Matt Harvey may be adding insult to injury after the worst start of his career on Saturday. The young pitcher may be dealing with "dead arm," manager Terry Collins said per the N.Y. Daily News.

"I have not talked to Matt yet, but it looks like he might be going through some of that dead arm stuff that sometimes happens. This might help him to have an extra day to get him back on track," said Collins, referring to Thursday’s off day. "He's going to pitch Friday with five days rest, be ready to go."

The team expected these types of bumps in the road in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and didn't send him for futher medical evaluation. Harvey gave up seven runs on six hits in just four innings of work on Saturday.


Red Sox 3B Pablo Sandoval abandons switch-hitting for at-bat
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(8:14 pm ET) Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who has missed the last five games with a knee injury, was called upon to pinch-hit Sunday against Angels lefty Cesar Ramos, and surprised everyone by lacing an RBI single while hitting left-handed.

Sandoval told MLB.com that the lefty-lefty matchup was a one-off due to his knee soreness and that when healthy, he would continue to switch-hit despite hitting just 2-for-41 from the right side this season. 

"It feels kind of weird, but I got the job done," Sandoval said. "It's one of those things, I'm going to try to help the team, no matter what. I don't feel great hitting right-handed because of my knee, so I'll just try to keep the momentum going hitting left-handed."

Sandoval said he hopes to be in Boston's lineup Monday if his knee cooperates. 


Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka tosses bullpen session Sunday
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(8:10 pm ET) Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka was able to throw a 31-pitch bullpen session on Sunday and feels prepared for his next rehab start on Wednesday, according to NJ.com.

"I feel pretty good about where I am right now," Tanaka said through Japanese translator Shingo Horie. "But basically I'm going to go where the team wants me to go to. The most important thing is for me to be able to come back strong enough to go on the mound and contribute to the team."

Tanaka is currently on the 15-day DL with a wrist injury, but said he may be able to rejoin the team without making a third rehab start if all goes well on Wednesday. Tanaka is 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work.


Rangers' Josh Hamilton to play left field when activated
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8:02 pm ET) Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton is expected to play left field on Monday when he is activated, manager Jeff Banister said on Sunday per the Dallas Morning News.

"We're going to open our arms and give him a great big hug and welcome him," Banister said of Hamilton. "And then we're going to treat him like he's one of 25, just like we do with everybody else."

Hamilton is expected to bat in the middle of the order, most likely fifth behind Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre. 

"We want him to come in and be one of the guys, enjoy the game," Beltre said. "We know what we can do. We don't expect him to come in and carry the offense. That's not going to be his job. With the guys we have, he doesn't have to do that."


 
 
 
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