Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy Use your Fantasy skills to win Cash Prizes. Join or start a league today. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2014 Draft Prep: Third base profiles

  •  

Al's profiles: Cs | 1Bs | 2Bs | SSs | 3Bs | OFs | Ps

There are few worse feelings in a Fantasy draft than failing to fill a position after there's been a huge dropoff in value between the players taken off the board and the ones left behind. When that happens at third base, taking that step beyond the final elite player will feel like walking off a huge curb that you never saw.

More than at any other position, there is a Grand Canyon-sized abyss separating the top third basemen and the second tier. Miguel Cabrera is miles ahead of the third base pack, and Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre and David Wright are at least several football fields ahead of the remaining third basemen. In Rotisserie formats, Wright projects to add nearly 15 places in the cumulative standings to your team's existing roster, while the next-best option, Josh Donaldson, would add just shy of 13 places. A difference of two places in the cumulative standings may not sound like much, but it's the largest such gap between elites and a second tier for any position.

The third base elite grows by one in Head-to-Head formats, as Matt Carpenter's low strikeout rate, high walk rate and healthy doubles total are enough for him to keep company with Longoria, Beltre and Wright (though most owners would probably use him at second base anyway). In either format, though, owners will take a big hit if they address their third base need too soon after the Big Four (or Five, if you count Carpenter) are claimed.

Get your Custom Draft Kits!
Download your Draft Kit for Draft Day 2014 that's customized to your specific league scoring system, format and player pool!
Download your Draft Kit today!

Still, the position offers some solid fallback options, as long as you don't reach for them. Even with some mild regression, Donaldson can turn in a solid season -- one that should be slightly better than Ryan Zimmerman's 2013 campaign. Martin Prado provides multi-positional eligibility and Kyle Seager offers steady, if not eye-popping, production. Chase Headley and Brett Lawrie have had better days, but both are still young enough to rebound (Lawrie especially). Whether or not they look poised to do it is something I'll address further below. If the proven veterans don't excite you or get drafted too early, there's always the upside potential presented by early-twenty-somethings Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts.

As with every position, third base presents its share of players who are difficult to project, due to inconsistency or inexperience. This sample of projection profiles begins with Longoria, whose stats were not actually all that hard to project, but this space seemed as fitting as any to make my case as to why I think he is at least on a par with Beltre and Wright, who get more respect among industry analysts.

Evan Longoria, Rays

2014 5x5 projections: .281/.356/.518, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 98 Runs, 1 SB in 595 at-bats
2014 overall value (projected): 15.3 Standings Gain Points (5x5), 2nd among third basemen; 512 Fantasy Points, 2nd among third basemen

After Cabrera is gone, presumably after the first two picks in the draft, it's almost a toss-up among Longoria, Wright and Beltre for second best at the position. I prefer Longoria, since he is a little more consistent and a little less of an injury risk than Wright and six years younger than Beltre.

That said, Longoria is not without his risks. After a three-year trend of reducing strikeouts, Longoria is back to Square One, as his strikeout rate has soared over the last two seasons. Over that span, Longoria has been taking called strikes at the highest rate of his career. While that's a trend to watch, it's encouraging in a way that Longoria's 26 percent strikeout-per-at-bat ratio was skewed by a midseason binge, in which he struck out in exactly one of out of every three at-bats in June and July.

With more typical strikeout rates the rest of the season, Longoria appears set for at least a mild batting average rebound, and that will fuel increases in runs and RBI. He's also practically a lock for 30 home runs, rounding out a picture of a third baseman who projects to be the best and safest alternative outside of the Motor City.

Josh Donaldson, Athletics

2014 5x5 projections: .281/.355/.465, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 84 Runs, 6 SB in 570 at-bats
2014 overall value (projected): 12.9 Standings Gain Points (5x5), 6th among third basemen; 455 Fantasy Points, 6th among third basemen

Even since Donaldson seized the A's starting third base job in August 2012, he has been a remarkably consistent source of batting average and home runs. In his first full season, Donaldson ranked as the fourth-most productive third baseman in Fantasy, but can we trust him to repeat? He established himself as a power hitter in three tours at Triple-A, so there is little reason to doubt he can approach last season's 24 home runs and 37 doubles. Over the last three years, both at Oakland and Sacramento, he has made steady reductions in his strikeout rate, so I have projected him to have another season in which he strikes out in less than every fifth at-bat.

Donaldson could still lose value, as he may have a hard time equaling last season's 23 infield hits, given that he doesn't have tremendous speed. A batting average around .280 is a more reasonable expectation than another .300 mark, and that dropoff, along with slightly diminished run production, is enough to knock him well below the likes of Longoria, Beltre and Wright in Roto leagues, and also far behind Carpenter in Head-to-Head formats.

Chase Headley, Padres

2014 5x5 projections: .261/.347/.431, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 74 Runs, 12 SB in 590 at-bats
2014 overall value (projected): 11.6 Standings Gain Points (5x5), 11th among third basemen; 423 Fantasy Points, 10th among third basemen

There's really no good way to put a positive face on Headley's 2013 stats. His home run power evaporated, and the usually selective hitter showed signs of living up to his name, increasing his chase rate.

Headley's mysterious dropoff in production finally got an explanation last September when he revealed he had been playing the whole season with a torn meniscus. We may not know how much of a factor the injury was, but in sizing Headley up for Draft Day, the disclosure provides a reason to expect Headley to make at least a partial recovery of his 2012 value, when he hit .286 with 31 home runs, 115 RBI and 17 stolen bases. His projection assumes a partial rebound and could understate Headley's production, should he make a full recovery.

One reason not to bank on Headley repeating his 2012 success is his current injury: a strained calf sustained in late February. While Headley has been making progress throughout spring training, calf injuries have been known to linger. It's just one more reason to temper expectations, leaving Headley on the fringes of the top 10 at third base.

Manny Machado, Orioles

2014 5x5 projections: .267/.304/.425, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 83 Runs, 4 SB in 640 at-bats
2014 overall value (projected): 10.4 Standings Gain Points (5x5), 14th among third basemen; 402 Fantasy Points, 12th among third basemen

Machado enters 2014 with a world of uncertainty, not only because he is coming off knee surgery, but because his development took an unexpected turn last season. Instead of building on the home run power he displayed as a rookie (seven home runs in 191 at-bats), Machado turned into a line drive hitter in 2013 and eschewed the long ball in favor of doubles. Lots of doubles, 51 of them, 39 of which came before the All-Star break.

Machado's flyball rate did rebound in the second half, and as his line drive rate regressed, the doubles dried up and the homers returned. Since Machado was more of a flyball hitter in the minors than he has been with the Orioles, and given his second-half reversal, owners should look to Machado as more of a power source this season. An increased emphasis on hitting flyballs could dampen Machado's batting average, though a slow or delayed start would also likely limit his chances for a major power breakout.

Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays

2014 5x5 projections: .275/.328/.429, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 76 Runs, 6 SB in 520 at-bats
2014 overall value (projected): 10.2 Standings Gain Points (5x5), 16th among third basemen; 367 Fantasy Points, 15th among third basemen

Since exploding onto the Fantasy scene as a power/speed threat who could hit for average in late 2011, it's largely been a downward spiral of injuries and declining performance for Lawrie. He did provide some hopeful signs last season after returning from a month-and-a-half layoff due to an ankle injury. He struck out just 32 times in 262 at-bats and had made some mild improvement on his ground ball rate, but the end result during that 70-game span -- a .279 batting average with six home runs, 32 RBI, 30 runs and seven stolen bases -- doesn't bode well for a return to his rookie glory.

Lawrie's projection reflects the improvement we can expect in his batting average, though I didn't assume he could maintain his late-season strikeout rate, which was far out of line with prior marks. If he does, he could hit above .290, but we have yet to see meaningful signs that a high average would come with 20-plus home run power. Also, a 22 for 35 conversion rate for steals over the last two years is not a good sign for a comeback in that category. With so much of Lawrie's career clouded by health issues and high ground ball rates, it's hard to see him producing enough to merit more than a late-round pick.

Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox

2014 5x5 projections: .253/.321/.396, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 73 Runs, 3 SB in 530 at-bats
2014 overall value (projected): 8.3 Standings Gain Points (5x5), 25th among third basemen; 334 Fantasy Points, 22nd among third basemen

As a prospect, Bogaerts showed he could hit for good power for a shortstop and get on base. Given that he did those things as a 20-year-old in Double-A and Triple-A is impressive, but that doesn't mean he's ready to become the next Troy Tulowitzki just yet. Not only could it take Bogaerts time to adjust the majors, but the sizable dip that his flyball rate took upon moving to Triple-A Pawtucket could foreshadow some struggles to hit for power with the Red Sox. Also, Bogaerts has been a good, but not great, contact hitter, so his higher minor league batting averages have been heavily driven by high BABIP rates he may not be able to sustain going forward.

That leaves Bogaerts with mediocre projections, and at third base, they leave him out of the top 20. At shortstop, he would squeeze just inside the top 20 in Head-to-Head formats and falling just short in Roto formats. Since it's almost a certainty that Bogaerts will gain shortstop eligibility, he is worth a flier in standard mixed leagues that have a MI slot.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al at @almelccbs .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Giants announce World Series rotation
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/18/2014) Giants manager Bruce Bochy will maintain his current rotation for the World Series, which means Madison Bumgarner and Jake Peavy will start Games 1 and 2 in Kansas City, the San Francisco Chronicle reports Saturday. Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong will pitch Games 3 and 4 at home.

Bochy is also expected to keep veteran Tim Lincecum on the roster. Lincecum has yet to make an appearance this postseason for San Francisco.


Royals tab Shields, Ventura for World Series Games 1, 2
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/18/2014) The Royals will start pitchers James Shields in Game 1 and Yordano Ventura in Game 2 of the World Series, Yahoo! Sports reports. The Royals are making their first World Series appearance in 29 years.

Cord Phelps elects free agency
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/18/2014) Orioles infielder Cord Phelps has elected free agency. Phelps hit .259/.361/.388 with seven home runs, 51 RBI and two stolen bases in 343 at-bats with Triple-A Norfolk.

Kelvin De La Cruz elects free agency
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/18/2014) Orioles pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz has elected free agency. He delivered a 5.98 ERA and 49:31 K:BB ratio in 49 2/3 innings with Triple-A Norfolk.

Julio DePaula elects free agency
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/18/2014) Orioles pitcher Julio DePaula has elected free agency. DePaula, whose only work as a major-league game in 2007 with the Twins, posted a 4.97 ERA and 43:13 K:BB ratio in 38 innings with Double-A Bowie.

Reds pitcher Trevor Bell elects free agency
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/17/2014) Reds pitcher Trevor Bell has elected to become a free-agent.

Bell pitched just two-thirds of an inning in the majors last season due to elbow inflammation. He'll seek a deal with another club during the offseason.


Cardinals may not be able to keep Pat Neshek
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/17/2014) Cardinals reliever Pat Neshek may have to test the open market this winter, according to MLB.com.

After his performance last season, there's a sense that Neshek has priced himself out of St. Louis' bullpen. Neshek was exceptional with the club, posting a 1.87 ERA over 67 1/3 innings. The performance earned him a trip to the All-Star Game. The team will likely attempt to re-sign Neshek, but there's a sense he can get a more lucrative deal elsewhere. 


Report: Former Orioles infielder Brian Roberts to retire
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/17/2014) Former Orioles infielder Brian Roberts is set to retire, according to MASN.

Roberts played 14 seasons in the majors, all but one of which came with Baltimore. He finished out his career with the Yankees last season. Roberts was elected to two All-Star teams during his tenure in Baltimore. He finished 18th in the MVP voting in 2005 after hitting .314/.387/.515. Injuries kept him down the last few seasons of his career. Roberts suffered two concussions, which contributed to him missing time in both 2010, 2011 and 2012. 

He retires with a career .276/.347/.409 batting line over 5,531 at-bats. 


Phillies send Andres Blanco to Triple-A
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/17/2014) The Phillies sent infielder Andres Blanco to Triple-A Friday. 

With the move, the club opens up a spot on the 40-man roster. Blanco played 25 games in the majors last year, hitting .277 over 47 at-bats. 


Rangers, Colby Lewis have exchanged numbers
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(10/17/2014) The Rangers have had some preliminary contract talks with pitcher Colby Lewis, according to ESPN.

Lewis put up less-than-stellar numbers last season, but was coming off hip and elbow surgery. He was better over the second half, posting a 3.86 ERA over 86 1/3 innings. Both Lewis and the club have shown interest in a possible reunion, and have exchanged contract figures. 


 
 
 
Rankings