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2014 Draft Prep: Top 10 Storylines

Senior Fantasy Writer
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1. Will Hanley Ramirez come back down to earth?

In 2013, Hanley Ramirez hit .345 with 20 home runs, 10 steals and 25 doubles ... in just 304 at-bats. These numbers weren't exactly new to Ramirez -- he hit .342 in 2009 (and holds a lifetime .302 average) and he's hit 20-plus homers six times in his career. His 2011 and 2012 campaigns were injury-riddled messes, but we did see him begin to pull through after the trade to the Dodgers in 2012, hitting .271 with 10 home runs in the 64 games following the deal. And 2013 is significant because it was injury-riddled, but Ramirez was awesome. Ramirez is capable of hitting .340 with 30 home runs, but it's far more likely we see .320 with 25. Throw in 20-25 steals at a very weak position (Fantasy-wise), and sure -- Ramirez will be coming back down to earth, but he'll still be out in orbit somewhere with those numbers.

2. How do the Dodgers fit four outfielders into three spots?

I subscribe to the theory that things have ways of working out, usually through timely injuries. But if this doesn't happen, the Dodgers are going to have to deal with the possibility of having four very good outfielders -- Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig and Andre Ethier -- with only three spots in which to play them. The most likely scenario -- turning Ethier into a bench player once Kemp returns from the DL -- isn't really maximizing his value. Either is a solid defender who can play all three outfield spots, and he has a .288 lifetime average, with more career doubles (264) than Ryan Braun or Joey Votto and more home runs (141) than Adam Lind or Carlos Gonzalez. As Kemp comes back, he will probably yield a game or two a week to Ethier, but Kemp averaged 159 games played from 2008 to 2011 -- he'll eventually settle back into an everyday player groove. Maybe Crawford sits here or there to get Ethier into the lineup, but the Dodgers would probably be better served dealing Ethier and relying on Scott Van Slyke as the backup outfielder until Joc Pederson is ready. Until something like that happens, though, it appears Ethier (and maybe Crawford) will see the biggest dip in value.

3. Does the risk justify the reward with Billy Hamilton?

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Vince Coleman stole 100-plus bases twice in the minor leagues. He finished his career on the farm with a .283 batting average and .358 OBP. Billy Hamilton stole 100-plus bases twice in the minor leagues. He finished his career on the farm with a .280 batting average and .350 OBP. Coleman then went on to steal 100-plus bases in his first three seasons, averaging 107 runs scored in that span, while hitting just .263. The major worry with Hamilton is that he won't be able to hit, and will therefore not get those 80 steals everyone is depending on. But Coleman hit just .267 (with a .320 OBP) his rookie year and stole 110. Even if Hamilton wallows in the .240 area, we could still see 80-plus steals from him. And in a Roto league, that's a risk worth taking, especially if you've built a team based on power up to that point.

4. Who can you trust in the Rangers, White Sox and Diamondbacks bullpens?

These three bullpens are going to require a good amount of lucky guessing. Joakim Soria is the closer in Texas. Rangers manager Ron Washington made some comments about Feliz' drop in velocity recently, telling reporters that, "it's going to be a while until we get to the point where he can freely let it go."

The White Sox traded their closer, Addison Reed, to the Diamondbacks in the offseason. It left Nate Jones -- a hard-throwing 28-year old with a career 3.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP -- as the favorite to close. However, Matt Lindstrom has saved 45 games in his career; and once he gets past a strained oblique, he could find himself in the mix for saves. For now, Jones looks to be the favorite. But if another Hector Santiago situation pops up -- he had an 8.53 ERA through the end of April after being named the team's closer in 2012, eventually giving way to Reed -- Lindstrom could swoop in.

Arizona's situation comes down to Reed and J.J. Putz. The team traded away top prospect Matt Davidson for Reed, so there may be some pressure to use their new asset. But Kirk Gibson seems to be the kind of manager who would install the veteran Putz -- and his 189 career saves, including 77 between 2011 and 2012 -- as the closer. Putz has a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, with a 10.3 K/9 over the last four seasons. He may be far better than Fantasy players give him credit for.

5. So we know about Ryan Braun, but how should we approach those other players returning from Biogenesis suspensions?

Nelson Cruz's late signing pushed his ADP down far enough to the point where he may be somewhat of a bargain. That's essentially the only positive I have for those players. If you look at the leaked records indicating what Alex Rodriguez was doing on his Biogenesis regimen, it included oral shots of testosterone before games (the infamous gummy bears) -- kind of like an undetectable modern day greenie. These players aren't going to have that boost and focus before games this season (assuming they were on a similar regimen, which -- based on the spotty information and reluctance of the players to talk -- is all we have to go on). Additionally, we haven't seen what influence PED usage has on speed. Everth Cabrera's main Fantasy asset is his ability to run, and if he's suddenly losing leg strength (on top of losing the daily game boost and general muscle mass), he's going to lose speed. Jhonny Peralta -- a career .268 hitter who has sported an OPS above .705 just twice since 2009 -- is a decent bet to drop off, Bartolo Colon should hit that age wall at some point (although the move to the NL could offset some of that), and the rest of the Biogenesis players remain just below the line of Fantasy relevance.

6. Is Masahiro Tanaka an ace in the hole?

Masahiro Tanaka's ERA didn't go above 1.87 in any of the last three seasons (in Japan). His WHIP was below 1.00 in two of those. His K/9 has only been above 8.9 twice over seven years, but that may not be a big issue if he manages to keep his ERA and WHIP very low. The Yankees broke their budget to sign Tanaka, and this is a team that insisted for a solid two years that they wouldn't move above the $189 million level. To do that -- and to commit that long -- requires a ton of faith in Tanaka's skills. Yu Darvish had better numbers in Japan -- sustaining a lower ERA and WHIP over a longer period of time, and striking out more batters -- but Tanaka's last three seasons are comparable, with just a slightly lower strikeout rate. And with Darvish considered a top three Fantasy pitching option, Tanaka may prove to be top 10 by the time the dust settles on the season, especially with the early advantage of not having been throughly scouted by most teams.

7. Better grab a second baseman early, right?

Not exactly. Jedd Gyorko has breakout potential and he can be had in the eighth round. Go a little deeper and you have Anthony Rendon, Jed Lowrie, Nick Franklin and even better-than-you-may-think options in Omar Infante and Dustin Ackley. The Brewers' second basemen (Rickie Weeks and Scooter Gennett) could produce one good option, assuming a winner emerges soon, and people seem to forget that DJ LeMahieu hit .280 with 18 steals and 21 doubles over 109 games last year (after hitting .321 over five minor league seasons). There is serious depth at second base. How deep it goes depends on things like your faith in Brian Roberts staying healthy -- but the upside exists. There's no need to panic on second base this season -- it gently cascades, as opposed to violently dropping off.

8. Will everyday at-bats make all the difference for Jurickson Profar?

Oh, what could have been. Jurickson Profar was the top prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season. Called up in late May, he hit .234 with six home runs and two steals over 286 at-bats. But Profar ended up playing five different positions (shortstop, third base, left field and DH) in an effort to get his bat in the lineup. There were just two stretches last season when Profar played in five or more consecutive games at the same position, and the 21-year-old saw his stats suffer for it. The regular at-bats in 2014 should have allowed Profar to get into a groove at the plate, but that's just not going to happen now. Not after suffering a shoulder injury that could keep him out of the lineup for half the season. If your league allows you to stash players in DL spots, he's still worth drafting and holding onto for a potential second-half boost. Profar is young and inexperienced, and the normal learning curve of the major leagues was likely steepened by him having to learn new positions and adjust to the intermittent playing time last season.

9. Is this the year Bryce Harper explodes?

Bryce Harper ran into a wall at Dodger Stadium on May 13 last year. He was hitting .303 at the time with 10 home runs, six doubles and a 1.022 OPS. He's spoken this spring about how he should have undergone surgery to address a knee injury instead of trying to play through it. He's also added weight in the offseason, has a stellar lineup surrounding him and went through an intense offseason conditioning program. Now pile all of this on to his seemingly limitless potential. Harper was on pace for 50 home runs last season. His .303 average through May 13 was accompanied by a league normal BABIP (.299). And we've probably seen just the start of some very real speed potential. Harper's current ADP has him going in the middle of the second round in most drafts. He may head into 2015 as a consensus top five Fantasy option.

10. How much faith do you put in the young guns with only half a year's experience, such as Michael Wacha, Gerrit Cole, Tony Cingrani, Sonny Gray and Danny Salazar?

It's tough to throw a blanket on this group, because they all have something different to offer. Wacha, Cole and Cingrani are high-strikeout (Cole eventually came around, with a 9.3 K/9 in his last 11 starts, coming off a 5.4 K/9 over the first eight), low ratio assets without much of an injury history. Salazar has that type of potential, but has battled arm issues in the past and comes with that stigma. Gray elevated his game in 2013 at the major league level, but has a spotty track record in the minors, with fluctuating strikeout rates (it went from 8.2 to 5.9 up to 9.0 in the last three seasons) and relatively high ratios (3.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over three years). Still, Gray had excellent control in 64 major league innings and struck out over a batter per inning (at age 23). Despite not having the greatest minor league numbers, he may turn out to be Alex Cobb-ish in his consistency and ratios.

Youth and inexperience shouldn't factor in much here. Wacha, Cingrani, Cole and Gray all pitched in college, while Salazar spent seven seasons in the minors. They've proven they can pitch at the major league level and can be relied on (to varying degrees) as 2014 Fantasy assets.

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Player News
Phillies pitcher Aaron Harang enjoying early season success
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:51 pm ET) Phillies pitcher Aaron Harang is old by baseball standards. But the veteran is not letting his age effect his poise on the mound, starting the year with a 2-1 record and a blistering 1.37 ERA in four starts. He's taking the compliments as they come, reports Philly.com.

"It is nothing I think about and I am going out and having fun and trying to give us a chance to win," Harang said. "Am I shocked with how the beginning of the season is going this year?"

Harang will take his surprising record into St. Louis Wednesday. 

"I have a good feel right now for what I am doing and I am able to make pitches when I need to and the guys behind me have been making some key plays and getting key double plays when I execute a pitch," he said.


Phillies pitcher Luis Garcia becoming reliable option out of the 'pen
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:47 pm ET) Phillies reliever Luis Garcia has done well so far this season, continuing his roll Sunday. Garcia came on with a runner on first and got Freddie Freeman to groundout to short.

Garcia has worked 8 2/3 innings so far this season with a 1-1 record and nine strikeouts. Manager Ryne Sandberg continues to be impressed by the young pitcher, reports MLB.com.

"He's a power pitcher," Sandberg said about Garcia. "The biggest thing with Garcia right now is the command of the baseball. He has two power pitches, and when he's ahead of the hitters, he can be very effective."


Reds' Todd Frazier frustrated with early struggles with RISP
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:40 pm ET) The Reds have been unable to capitalize on offensive opportunities early on this season. Cincinnati is just 1 for 24 with runners in scoring position since Joey Votto picked up an RBI Wednesday.

Todd Frazier was unable to produce a run for the team Sunday with the bases loaded.

"Especially from myself. I came up there with the bases loaded, one out. You have to put the ball at least on the ground, put it in play," Frazier said. "You've got to figure it out. Bottom line, at least get one run or hit a sac fly and we still have momentum the next inning. I've got to pick myself up."


Reds' Tony Cingrani does well in return to the mound Sunday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:36 pm ET) Reds pitcher Tony Cingrani tossed two scoreless innings in Cincinnati's 5-2 loss to the Cubs Sunday. It was Cingrani's first appearance for the Reds since April 14. 

"I've just been hanging out for a little while," said Cingrani to MLB.com. "Everything feels good. I was obviously refreshed. I like one inning, two innings. I'm good at that. It's pretty easy. Just go out there and throw as hard as you can."

Cingrani recorded two strikeouts in his two innings of work and lowered his ERA to 1.69 in 5 1/3 innings.

"Tony left it right there and I think gave us a vision of some of the things he can do to help us out of the bullpen," manager Bryan Price said. "I needed him for two innings today. We'll see where he is [Monday]. You're certainly going to run with the guys throwing the ball the best."


Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt hopes to earn starting role
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:27 pm ET) Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt knows manager Fredi Gonzalez has tough decisions to make. One of those decisions has been slotting veteran A.J. Pierzynski in the starting lineup more often this season than originally expected. Bethancourt is rolling with the punches and still thinks he can earn a starting role, according to MLB.com.

"You've got to respect the manager's decision," Bethancourt said. "He puts whoever he wants in the lineup. So, I've just got to be ready and wait for my opportunity. If he says I have to earn it, I will do my best to earn it. I have no problem with that."

Gonzalez has an idea of what he wants to do with Bethancourt.

"We want to give [Bethancourt] an opportunity, but the other guy, you put him in there every single time, and he just keeps hitting," Gonzalez said.

Bethancourt is hitting just .147 with two RBI in 34 at-bats this season.


Phillies 1B Ryan Howard taking power surge in stride
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(9:00 pm ET) Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has been on a tear recently, registering three home runs in his last five games, but according to MLB.com, he's not taking his streak as a sign of anything other than the natural ebb and flow of the game. 

Howard is hitting .235 (4-for-17) with three home runs, seven RBIs, two walks, three strikeouts and a 1.080 OPS in his last five games, numbers much better than the ones he posted at the start of the season. 

"That's baseball," Howard said. "You just continue to go out there and swing. I feel like I've been swinging it well. The results may not necessarily show, but it's all about how you are feeling with the swings. Eventually, they will drop."


Rangers closer Neftali Feliz picks up wild win
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(8:44 pm ET) The Rangers used closer Neftali Feliz for two innings to help lock down a 5-4, 11-inning victory Sunday, with Feliz picking up his first victory of the season. 

Feliz threw 38 pitches in one of his longer outings of the year, and though he struck out four batters, he did allow a run in the 11th inning. He was able to get out of a bases-loaded jam, however, to preserve the win. 


Angels reliever Joe Smith blows save in loss
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(8:33 pm ET) Angels reliever Joe Smith had been nearly perfect in eight appearances this season, but called upon to pick up the save in Sunday's game against the Rangers, he allowed his first run of the season and picked up a blown save in Los Angeles' 5-4, 11-inning defeat. 

Coming on in the ninth inning with a 3-2 lead, Smith registered the first two outs of the inning before allowing a single to Prince Fielder. Adrian Beltre followed with an infield single before Mitch Moreland drove in pinch-runner Delino DeShields Jr. with a single.

Smith's ERA moved to 1.13 after the appearance. 


Rangers starter Nick Martinez delivers 4th straight strong outing
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(8:23 pm ET) Nick Martinez delivered his fourth straight strong start to open the season, but once again had a no-decision on his ledger as the Rangers rallied in the 11th inning to pull out a 5-4 win Sunday over the Angels. 

Martinez went six innings without giving up a run, scattering seven hits while striking out two and walking a pair. In four starts this season, Martinez has given up one earned run. His ERA is 0.35. 

Martinez has picked up no-decisions in his last two starts despite allowing just 12 hits and one run in 12 innings. 


Astros center fielder Jake Marisnick smacks second home run
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8:20 pm ET) Astros center fielder Jake Marisnick went 2 for 4 at the plate in Houston's 7-6 win over the Athletics Sunday. 

Marisnick, who missed the last two games with a leg injury, connected on an 0-2 pitch from Drew Pomeranz over the left center field wall in the fourth inning for a two-run blast, his second of the season.

Marisnick boosted his average to .364 with eight RBI in 44 at-bats this season.


 
 
 
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