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Starting pitchers for the second half

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Over the first couple of months of the season, much of our analysis of year-to-date stats focused on identifying flukes and how to treat them, but for the most part, starting pitchers have now gotten to the point of the season where it's hard to view what they've accomplished as fluky.

Starters can do a whole lot of pitching over 15 weeks, and samples of innings have grown to the extent that we can put a high degree of trust in many of their current stat lines. Even mid-rotation types have thrown 110 innings or more by now, but even with that much data to work with, there are a handful of pitchers who still appear poised for a change in fortune over the season's remaining 11 weeks.

The next lineup deadline in standard CBSSports.com weekly leagues doesn't come until Friday, so if you have found yourself short on time to ferret out the best buy-low and sell-high pitching targets, this column will give you a place to start. With a four-day break just ahead, the call of the waiver wire will be a little fainter, so you can reinvest that time in working the trade market (or maybe just devoting more attention to the rest of your life).

I have featured five starters who have a strong chance to increase their value after the All-Star break, along with another five who may have nowhere to go but down, and each represents a great buy-low or sell-high opportunity, respectively.

Each of these pitchers could see their value change dramatically after the break, and once games resume, your window to take advantage of the opportunities could close quickly. Friday will get here sooner than you think, so let's get on with a look at 10 pitchers who could help to alter the course of your Fantasy season.

Note: Season-to-date stats are current for games played through Friday, July 11.

Pitchers due for increased value

Jeff Samardzija, Athletics: When the A's acquired Samardzija last weekend, it appeared to be nothing but a positive for the ex-Cub. Not only was he migrating to a much better home park for pitchers, but he was moving from one of the worst offensive teams in the majors to one of the best. So far, Samardzija hasn't received much of a bump in run support, as the A's have scored six times in his two starts, keeping him just behind Eric Stults for the majors' lowest level of run support. That is bound to change over time, but what hasn't changed is Samardzija's improved control and ground ball tendencies. While there is no reason to think that Samardzija will slow down his ERA, WHIP or strikeout pace, he is all but certain to dramatically improve his 3-8 record. That should elevate him into the top 25 starting pitchers rest of season.

Ian Kennedy, Padres: With a 9.7 K/9 ratio and vastly improved control, Kennedy also has the profile of a top 25 starting pitcher, yet he falls outside the top 40 in Fantasy points. Some of that can be chalked up to the bad luck that befalls pitching for the Padres, as Kennedy has received the third-lowest level of run support (2.95 runs per nine innings) for a qualifying starter. He has also been hurt by a 25 percent line drive rate that could just as easily be the result of luck as of a shortcoming. If Kennedy reduces that line drive rate -- and the .333 BABIP it helped to produce -- he could have an ERA closer to the 3.09 xFIP he has posted to date. Should the Padres trade him, he should also be able to improve upon his 7-9 record. Kennedy is better than his 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, so even if he remains a Padre, he should prove to be a good buy-low target.

Jake Odorizzi, Rays: If Kennedy has been unlucky, then Odorizzi has been a walking calamity. He, too, has been a victim of poor run support, receiving 3.39 runs per nine innings, and worse yet, opponents have somehow managed to hit .376 on ground balls against him. Even a horrible infield defense wouldn't yield a batting average 100 points lower than that, and the Rays' infield defense just isn't that bad. Meanwhile, the offense has perked up recently, so Odorizzi should be able to build on his meager four wins. Though Odorizzi has the fifth-highest K/9 ratio (10.4) among qualifying starters, his Fantasy value is nowhere close to being on a par with the likes of strikeout artists like Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish, because he allows too many walks and flyballs. Owners may have to suffer through the walks, but a favorable second-half schedule should limit the threat of home runs. The Rays' first 17 games after the break will take place in pitchers' parks, and aside from a 10-game August road trip, they will play most of the rest of their games at home, where Odorizzi has a career 3.38 ERA. He could have a dramatically better second half.

Trevor Bauer, Indians: Bauer's best work came earlier this season, but as his ERA climbed above 4.00 in June, he kept his strikeout rate above one per inning. That has changed over his last four starts, as Bauer has been much more prone to contact, getting just 18 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings and whiffs on only 6 percent of his pitches. If Bauer continues that trend, he will have a hard time getting his ERA back under 4.00, but less than a month ago, he had an 11 percent whiff rate on the season. Granted, that encompassed all of seven starts, but it showed what Bauer is capable of. We should also not lose perspective on the fact that Bauer has made huge strides in reducing his walk rate, and we shouldn't rule out further progress on that front as well. There haven't been many promising signs of late, but the potential for Bauer to combine a high K-rate along with decent control is still there, and he could realize it in the weeks to come.

Danny Salazar, Indians: Even during a difficult seven-start stint with the Indians at the beginning of the season, Salazar's ability to miss bats never betrayed him. He simply had problems throwing strikes, which was odd for him, because control had typically been a strength. A six-walk performance on Thursday aside, Salazar has rediscovered his control in his starts at Triple-A Columbus, and he has improved to the point where Indians manager Terry Francona told the The News-Herald he could pitch one of the doubleheader games at the Tigers on July 19. That could open the door for Salazar to return to the Indians' rotation on a permanent basis, particularly if T.J. House or Zach McAllister fail to seize the fifth starter's spot or if Justin Masterson is slow to return from a knee injury. The biggest lingering concern with Salazar is his high flyball rate, but with improved control, he should fall behind in the count less often, make better pitches and keep the ball in the park at a reasonable rate. If Salazar stays on his current course and gets promoted, he could be a reliable mixed league option down the stretch.

Pitchers due for decreased value

Anibal Sanchez, Tigers: To judge by Sanchez's 6-3 record, 3.04 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, he appears to be having another strong season, yet he is neither a top 50 starting pitcher in standard points leagues or a top 50 pitcher in standard Rotisserie formats. Sanchez has been light on strikeouts, recording 70 of them over 94 2/3 inning, after falling just short of 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings a year ago. He has been inconsistent in getting swinging strikes, and it was hardly surprising that Sanchez recorded just three strikeouts and six whiffs over seven innings on Thursday night against a Royals lineup that is the one the majors' best at making contact. It's part of a recent pattern in which Sanchez has struggled to keep the ball out of play against good contact-hitting teams, and the schedule won't help him much coming out the break, with series against the Indians, Diamondbacks, Yankees and Blue Jays in the initial weeks. Sanchez has gotten away with these types of performances because he has allowed a .172 batting average on grounders and just three home runs over his 16 starts. Neither rate is even close to sustainable, so now is as good of a time as any to sell Sanchez high, before his ERA and WHIP start to show some wear and tear.

Doug Fister, Nationals: We have come to expect Fister to be a reliable option in standard mixed leagues, but that hasn't always been the case. Since coming to the Tigers from the Mariners just before the 2011 trade deadline, Fister went from being a contact pitcher to a close-to-average strikeout pitcher. Given that Fister already had outstanding control, this was enough to give him much greater Fantasy relevance. In his first season with the Nationals, Fister has looked much more like he did in his Mariners days, getting whiffs on 5.5 percent of his pitches and 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings. His control is as good as ever, but without a better K-rate, he's not much better than Rick Porcello or Kyle Gibson and has fallen behind Henderson Alvarez among the ranks of contact pitchers. Only an 80 percent strand rate is keeping Fister from an ERA in the upper 3.00s, and he's not likely to maintain that. If Fister can inch up his strikeout rate, maybe he can sustain his current value, but with three strikeouts or fewer in five of his last six starts, that's looking unlikely.

Jose Quintana, White Sox: Quintana is in the midst of a five-game hot streak that has given his season-to-date numbers a lustre they didn't have just a month ago. In each start during this run, Quintana has lasted at least seven innings, notched at least six strikeouts and compiled a 1.51 ERA. He has not been a markedly different pitcher over this time, except for the fact that he has racked up a 22 percent called strike rate, which is five percentage points higher than the mark he posted prior to this stretch this year, as well as for all of last year. Quintana has benefitted from facing three teams during this run -- the Twins, Blue Jays and Red Sox -- who are among the majors' least likely teams to swing. Not only is Quintana's K-rate due for regression, but so is his homer rate. He has allowed only one home run over 43 2/3 innings at U.S. Cellular Field, which continues to be one of the American League's most notorious launching pads. Quintana's current 3.24 ERA and 8.1 K/9 ratio may make him look like an emerging stud, but this is probably as good as it will get for him.

Alfredo Simon, Reds: Especially for a converted reliever, Simon has been impressive as an innings eater, lasting at least seven innings in half of his 18 starts and pitching at least six frames in all but two of them. It's helped that Simon has been stingy with walks, issuing only 28 over 116 2/3 innings, but a .158 batting average allowed on ground balls has also helped him work through innings quickly. With that batting average due to rise, Simon is a strong candidate for WHIP regression. His 2.70 ERA is due for an even greater correction, as it has also been helped by a fluky-high 81 percent strand rate. Simon is currently 11th in Fantasy Points among starting pitchers and second among SPARPs, but going forward, he'll be far from an automatic start in leagues where you can use him as a reliever. Get what you can for him now on the trade market.

Jesse Chavez, Athletics: Once the A's added Samardzija and Jason Hammel to their rotation, it became clear that they now possessed the depth to put Chavez back in a relief role once his innings count got too high. That alone is a reason to consider trading Chavez, but even if innings weren't a concern, he would still profile as a regression candidate. He leads the majors with 5.83 runs of support per nine innings, and as prolific as Oakland's offense is, it probably won't be quite that robust in future starts. Also, Chavez's ground ball rate has fallen in each successive month, ever since he posted a 49 percent rate in April. Chavez has been fair away from O.co Coliseum so far, with a 3.86 ERA over 10 starts, but he could be an outright liability in hitter's parks if he doesn't curb his growing flyball rate.

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Player News
Trade possibility Kurt Suzuki backed by teammates
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(11:07 am ET) Twins surprisingly productive catcher Kurt Suzuki has received interest from several teams in need of players at that position, but closer Glen Perkins is hoping he stays put and is offered a contract extension.

"That would be ideal," he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "I think everyone else would agree. Not even just pitchers. He's fit in the clubhouse great, too, with everybody."

General manager Terry Ryan expressed satisfaction with Suzuki despite admitting he rates poorly in regard to pitch-framing.

Toronto, San Francisco and Baltimore are believed to be most interested. All three had scouts at Twins games over the weekend.


Jordy Mercer emerging as option to bat second vs. LHPs
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:06 am ET) Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer was slotted second in the batting order Monday against the Giants for the third time this season and second time in three games.

Mercer has become an option to hit second when a left-handed starter is on the hill, as was the case Monday with Giants hurler Madison Bumgarner.

"I think he gives us, against left-handed pitching, probably the best dynamic in that spot right now," manager Clint Hurdle said, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "From last season into this season, he’s been one of our better hitters against left-handed pitching. He’s a guy we’ve used to play some small ball with, a guy who’s shown an ability to barrel the ball. He’s leading the team in RBIs against left-handed pitching in probably less at-bats than the other guys had."

Mercer is batting .319 with a .351 on-base percentage, .458 slugging percentage and .809 OPS in 40 games against lefties this season.


'Still a good chance' Joaquin Benoit gets dealt
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:00 am ET) A major-league source told MLBDailyDish.com that there is "still a good chance" the Padres trade reliever Joaquin Benoit, who has taken over the closer's role since San Diego traded Huston Street to the Angels. The Pirates and Indians could be two teams still interested in acquiring the veteran reliever.

Adam Eaton on a roll for White Sox
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:50 am ET) White Sox leadoff hitter Adam Eaton has remained steady and productive since a mini-slump in late June and early July.

Eaton has hit safely in 13 of his last 14 games with 22 hits in 58 at-bats during that stretch. He has scored six runs in the last eight games and has sweetened his stat line to .285/.355/.383. The lone mild disappointment has been his 10 stolen bases in 16 attempts.


Report: Brewers among teams interested in Jon Lester
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:47 am ET) The Brewers are among several teams trying to trade for Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. The Dodgers, Mariners, Pirates and Orioles are among other teams reported to have inquired about Lester.

Seth Smith continues to rake against righties
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:42 am ET) Padres left fielder Seth Smith continues to give his team what it expects - a strong bat against right-handers and a fixture on the bench against lefties.

Smith is arguably enjoying his finest season for the offensively challenged Padres with a stat line of .295/.392/.510. He is coming off a 12-for-21 stretch in which he scored five runs and drove in four. He has 11 homers and 44 walks, but just 30 at-bats against left-handers this season with seven hits.


Deep league owners need Billy Burns
by Al Melchior | Data Analyst
(10:38 am ET) On Monday night, Billy Burns made his major league debut, pinch-hitting for Josh Reddick and lining out. It's wasn't an auspicious beginning for the Athletics' callup, but there should be better times ahead.

Though he had not advanced beyond Double-A, Burns had already demonstrated Fantasy potential with his blazing speed. Burns stole 51 bases in 56 attempts for Double-A Midland after notching 74 steals across two levels in the Nationals' system in 2013. He has very little power, but Burns has shown good plate discipline and has some potential to help owners with batting average and on-base percentage.

Even as just a pinch-running specialist, Burns would have value for owners in AL-only leagues, but he will be more than that. According to MLB.com, Burns will fill the role vacated by Craig Gentry, who went on the 15-day disabled list with a broken right hand. That means he will platoon in center field against left-handed pitchers. That additional playing time gives Burns some appeal in deeper mixed leagues.


Chris Archer earns praise for standing up to David Ortiz
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:28 am ET) Rays starter Chris Archer has earned the respect of his teammates for his reaction to the showmanship of Red Sox slugger David Ortiz in flipping his bat and taking his time rounding the bases after blasting a home run against the right-hander.

Archer claimed Ortiz feels he's bigger than the game. Ortiz said Archer had no business reacting that way as a player with "two days" in the game. Archer countered by noting that classy Hank Aaron never flipped his bat.

"My initial thought was you're never too youthful to tell the truth and say things how you see them," Archer told the Tampa Tribune.

Archer standing up to Ortiz prompted praise from David Price, who has his own feud going with the Red Sox stud.

"Not only did he earn respect here, but in all of baseball," Price said about Archer. "He said what he needed to say. He said it well. I wish I would've said it as well."


Report: Royals interested in adding Andrew Miller
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:17 am ET) The Royals are seeking to bolster one of the premier bullpens in the bigs by adding Red Sox fireballing southpaw Andrew Miller, WEEI.com has claimed.

Miller is reportedly on the trading block. The failed starter has thrived as a short reliever in recent years. He has been most dominant this season with 25 hits allowed in 40 1/3 innings, 13 walks and 65 strikeouts. He has only allowed two home runs, which bodes well for spacious Kauffman Stadium.


Marlon Byrd strings together four singles in loss
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(9:47 am ET) Phillies outfielder Marlon Byrd put together a strange performance Monday, in a 7-1 loss to the Mets.

Byrd, who ranked fourth in the National League with 20 home runs this season, had a fairly quiet four-hit game in the loss. Byrd went 4 for 5 with all of his hits going for singles, and he neither scored nor drove in a run.

Byrd is now hitting .273/.321/.482 in 105 games. 


 
 
 
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