Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Fantasy First Pitch for Week 17

  •  

The All-Star break is finally over. If you're planning on dealing with your baseball withdrawal by watching as many games as you can stand this weekend, you will get to watch a lot of aces, as teams have used the break to reset their rotations.

The downside to this embarrassment of weekend pitching riches, of course, is when Fantasy Week 17 (July 21 -27) rolls around, it's mostly the pitchers at the back of rotations who will open series on Monday and Tuesday. And that will make for some uninspiring two-start options, as those same hurlers will take the mound again next weekend.

Must start two-start options
1. Chris Sale vs. KC, at MIN
2. Adam Wainwright vs. TB, at CHC
3. Julio Teheran vs. MIA, vs. SD
4. Cliff Lee vs. SF, vs. ARI
5. Scott Kazmir vs. HOU, at TEX
6. Mat Latos at MIL, vs. WAS
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu at PIT, at SF
8. Mike Minor vs. MIA, vs. SD
9. Doug Fister at COL, at CIN

Week 17 will not only be marked by a paucity of higher-end two-start pitchers, but by a great deal of uncertainty. By next weekend, the pre-waiver trade deadline will be just days away, and that could tangle some rotations. Also, some teams are still trying to figure out how to fill out the back of their rotations. Going into the break, many Fantasy owners assumed that Taijuan Walker would return to the Mariners' rotation right away, but now it is unclear when he will be recalled to make his next start. In fact, CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman has reported that the Rays have inquired about getting Walker in a trade, so for all we know, he could have already made his last start for Seattle.

And will Danny Salazar finally return to the Indians' rotation this week? He is a leading candidate to fill an opening in the rotation on Tuesday, but whether he could parlay that into a possible two-start week or a ticket back to Columbus remains to be seen. The Twins' back of the rotation is also in flux, so could prospects Trevor May and/or Alex Meyer finally get the call? Heading into the weekend, therer are far more questions than answers.

Cliff Lee (elbow), Jonathon Niese (shoulder) and Collin McHugh (finger) present their own form of uncertainty, as each is scheduled to return from the disabled list to make two starts this week. All are recommended starts to varying degrees, but each is riskier than usual after experiencing a layoff. C.J. Wilson (ankle) is eligible to return next weekend, and if he is ready to come off the DL, he could spoil a two-start week for either Matt Shoemaker or Hector Santiago.

With so many moving parts, this week's two-start pitcher rankings could get some refreshing between now and the lineup deadline, so be sure to check back for Monday's update. For now, though, here's how the 45 projected two-start pitchers stack up.

Monday update: As expected, some of the muddled rotation situations got clearer over the weekend, though others remain to be sorted out. Salazar will be recalled to start for the Indians on Tuesday at the Twins, but he will still have to duke it out with T.J. House, Zach McAllister and, eventually, Justin Masterson (knee), for one of the final two spots in the rotation. The Twins, however, have yet to name a starter to oppose Salazar, but given that May pitched for Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, he appears to be out of the picture.

Lee and Niese are both scheduled to return from the DL on Monday, so both line up for two starts as anticipated. McHugh will remain on the DL to make at least one rehab start, so a two-start week is no longer possible for him. Wilson has yet to throw off a mound, so his return this week looks unlikely, making the two-start weeks for Shoemaker and Santiago appear safe from preemption.

While McHugh gets removed from this week's list of two-start pitchers, Nick Martinez (side) gets added. He will come off the DL to start at the Yankees on Tuesday, which puts him in line to also start Sunday against the Athletics.

Two-Start Pitchers on the Bubble

10. Jake Odorizzi, TB (at STL, vs. BOS)

Odorizzi's streak of consecutive starts with three or fewer earned runs has reached seven, and over this stretch, he has compiled a 2.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He's been getting more swings-and-misses lately than he was earlier in the season, but a bigger key to his recent success has been pitching mostly at home. Five out of those seven starts came at Tropicana Field, and Odorizzi gets another outing there next weekend. Before then, he will visit Busch Stadium, which is also partial to pitchers. The Cardinals are also very pitcher-friendly, as they have the lowest-scoring and least-powerful offense in the National League that is more than 30 miles from the Mexican border. With a 41 percent flyball rate, Odorizzi is never entirely safe, but he has a good chance of extending his hot streak in Week 17.

Start Odorizzi over the following one-start pitchers: Alex Cobb, Homer Bailey, Anibal Sanchez

11. Jonathon Niese, NYM (at SEA, at MIL)

Niese enters the second half still on the 15-day disabled list, but all indications are that he will be ready to make a start at the Mariners, which would line him up for a second start at the Brewers. Only a two-and-a-half week layoff due to a shoulder strain keeps Niese from being a must-start option, given the meager two-start alternatives this week. Niese's reduced velocity and pitch-to-contact ways are less of an issue when he doubles up his innings, especially given that he typically goes deep into games. The lefty is averaging 3.59 pitches per plate appearance, which helped him to pitch seven-plus innings seven times in the first half. Niese also lasted six-plus innings in all but three of his 16 starts prior to his most recent appearance, when he was knocked out in the first inning by a line drive off his lower back. Perhaps with rest, Niese will throw harder and miss a few more bats, but even if he doesn't, his control, aversion to extra-base hits and efficiency are good enough to make him viable this week.

Start Niese over the following one-start pitchers: Anibal Sanchez, James Shields, Chris Archer

12. Rick Porcello, DET (at ARI, at LAA)

Porcello's greatest asset is his sinker, but over his first 12 starts of the season, it had betrayed him. Opponents put up a .187 Isolated Power on the pitch, as opposed to a .111 mark last season, but Porcello has found his groove again recently. Over his last six starts, his sinker has yielded an .053 Isolated Power, and overall Porcello has held hitters to a .223/.272/.299 slash line. Even though strikeouts continue to be scarce, Porcello has been so proficient at getting grounders that he can be trusted in two-start weeks. The Angels have been an above-average team at hitting for power against ground ball pitchers, posting a .141 Iso (as opposed to the major league average of .117), so that matchup does make Porcello something less than a must-start.

Start Porcello over the following one-start pitchers: James Shields, Chris Archer, Ervin Santana

13. Jimmy Nelson, MIL (vs. CIN, vs. NYM)

After having dominated the Pacific Coast League, Nelson arrived in Milwaukee just before the break with much fanfare ... and then he delivered a dud of a start against the Cardinals. It was actually Nelson's second big league start of the year, and his first effort -- at the Marlins back in May -- went much better. Even in last week's outing, Nelson showed the ability to get whiffs, inducing 10 of them in 98 pitches, and based on his minor league track record, he should be able to do a better job of getting grounders and stranding runners going forward. Even highly talented pitchers don't always have an easy time transitioning to the majors, but Nelson's high ceiling makes him worth starting this week.

Start Nelson over the following one-start pitchers: Chris Archer, Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson

14. Matt Shoemaker, LAA (vs. BAL, vs. DET)

Shoemaker has been a swingman for the Angels, which has kept him from staying in the rotation for extended stretches. As we saw with Drew Smyly earlier this season, that can make it difficult for Shoemaker to actually deliver two starts, even when the schedule suggests that is what is in his future for the coming week. Fantasy owners can't control how Shoemaker will be used, but they can take comfort in knowing that he has actually been more effective as a starter than as a reliever. Though he sports a 4.15 ERA while in the rotation, Shoemaker has racked up 52 strikeouts and only 12 walks and four home runs in 52 innings as a starter this year. A .356 BABIP has held Shoemaker back from an impressive stat line, and it is likely the result of bad luck, especially since he has yielded a normal-looking 21 percent line drive rate as a starter (per StatCorner.com). Shoemaker has been too prone to allowing home runs on the road, but with two home starts, he could provide a nice return. In fact, he could be worth a rotation spot, even if he only makes one of his starts.

Start Shoemaker over the following one-start pitchers: Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson, Jason Hammel

15. Jacob deGrom, NYM (at SEA, at MIL)

Two-start pitchers to avoid
21. Tom Koehler at ATL, at HOU
22. Drew Hutchison vs. BOS, at NYY
23. Jake Peavy at TOR, at TB
24. Jeremy Guthrie at CHW, vs. CLE
25. Miguel Gonzalez at LAA, at SEA
26. Bud Norris at LAA, at SEA
27. Hector Santiago vs. BAL, vs. DET
28. Kyle Hendricks vs. SD, vs. STL
29. Yusmeiro Petit at PHI, vs. LAD
30. Roenis Elias vs. NYM, vs. BAL
31. Edinson Volquez vs. LAD, at COL
32. Shane Greene vs. TEX, vs. TOR
33. Jacob Turner at ATL, at HOU
34. Miles Mikolas at NYY, vs. OAK
35. Roberto Hernandez vs. SF, vs. ARI
36. J.A. Happ vs. BOS, at NYY
37. Eric Stults at CHC, at ATL
38. Bruce Chen at CHW, vs. CLE
39. Chase Whitley vs. TEX, vs. TOR
40. Scott Carroll vs. KC, at MIN
41. Yohan Pino vs. CLE, vs. DET
42. Vidal Nuno vs. DET, at PHI
43. Nick Martinez at NYY, vs. OAK
44. Kris Johnson vs. CLE, vs. CHW
45. Franklin Morales vs. WAS, vs. PIT

Before deGrom embarked on a five-start run that has produced a 1.65 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 32 2/3 innings, he hadn't been showing much consistency with his whiff rate or control, and he had been all too consistent in allowing flyballs. Since then, he has thrown 65 percent of his pitches for strikes, 14 percent for whiffs and he has induced as many grounders as flies and line drives. It's hard to know how much to trust those results, though, as deGrom has faced both the Marlins and Braves twice over that five-start span, and his third opponent -- the Pirates -- are not great contact hitters either. The Mariners will be the best contact-hitting squad deGrom has seen in some time, and while the Brewers do their share of swinging-and-missing, they are the best offensive team he will have faced this year. In fact, the Brew Crew already whacked deGrom around for three runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in an earlier start this season. Because he does have a history of good control and better ground ball tendencies than what he showed in his early starts this season, deGrom is worth a flier. He just may disappoint those looking for similar performances to those he has had recently.

Start the following one-start pitchers over deGrom: James Shields, Chris Archer, Ervin Santana

16. Wily Peralta, MIL (vs. CIN, vs. NYM)

When Peralta got through the first two months of the season with suprisingly good control, owners had reason to be encouraged, but a 2.12 ERA through his first 10 starts seemed a bit much. Regression came swiftly and strongly for Peralta, as his ERA over his next eight starts was an unsightly 6.38. He was a less consistent strike-thrower over that span, but unfavorable BABIP and strand rates were largely responsible for the damage. Peralta never stopped being a good ground ball pitcher, and his control has generally been decent, if not stellar. Take away all of the white noise that that has created the appearance of inconsistency, and what you have is a pitcher much like Charlie Morton, but with a better lineup to back him. Morton is a pretty reliable two-start option, and Peralta is even more so.

Start the following one-start pitchers over Peralta: Chris Archer, Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson

17. Ryan Vogelsong, SF (at PHI, vs. LAD)

Matt Cain has gotten a boost over his career from making home starts at AT&T Park, but he isn't the only Giants pitcher to reap that benefit. While Vogelsong is carrying a 5.18 ERA on the road, he has a 3.04 home ERA, and it's the third time in four seasons that he has had an ERA under 3.10 at home. Both Cain and Vogelsong are fairly average when it comes to avoiding contact and pitching with control, but Vogelsong is a little harder to trust. Both this season and in the past, Cain has been more effective at getting outs on balls in play, while Vogelsong has been notably inefficient, averaging 3.92 pitches per plate appearance and fewer than six innings per start. That matters less in a two-start week, but it's part of what makes Vogelsong a less attractive option than the above pitchers on this list.

Start the following one-start pitchers over Vogelsong: Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson, Jason Hammel

18. Justin Verlander, DET (at ARI, at LAA)

It's no longer realistic to expect Verlander to blow hitters away, but in late June, he seemed to have figured out a way to succeed with lesser stuff. Over a three-start span, Verlander pitched with pinpoint control, walking just two batters over 19 innings while garnering 20 strikeouts. In his final two starts before the break, Verlander continued to avoid walks, but according to BrooksBaseball.net, his average fastball velocity languished at 92.5 mph. as opposed to 94.0 mph in his prior starts. The results weren't pretty, as Verlander notched only seven Ks in 12 1/3 innings while allwoing nine runs, all earned. There's been more bad than good for Verlander this season, but he has shown signs of promise, like in his recent three-game rebound. It's probably best to sit him, but he's a reasonable last-resort choice.

Start the following one-start pitchers over Verlander: Tim Hudson, Jason Hammel, Lance Lynn

19. John Lackey, BOS (at TOR, at TB)

Lackey is in the midst of a four-game slide of his own, and it may not be coincidental that three of those starts have come away from Fenway Park. Even though Lackey has experienced a renaissance in his two seasons since returning from Tommy John surgery, in both 2013 and 2014, he has struggled on the road. This season's 4.47 road ERA bests last season's mark by single point, and in both campaigns, he has been highly vulnerable to home runs in away games. The one start that Lackey has pitched at home during his slump came against the slugging Orioles, as a pair of homers neutralized the impact of 11 strikeouts. A road start against the Blue Jays is dangerous, even without Edwin Encarnacion, and the Rays' offense has found new life in recent weeks. Lackey owners can look forward to a home stand in Fantasy Week 18 (July 28-Aug. 3), but until then, they should first see if they can find a safer back-of-the-rotation option.

Start the following one-start pitchers over Lackey: Jason Hammel, Lance Lynn, Jordan Zimmermann

20. T.J. House, CLE (at MIN, at KC)

House's Fantasy stats -- a 1-2 record with a 4.40 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 45 innings -- are hardly noteworthy, at least in a good way. His supporting stats, including a 64 percent ground ball rate, 66 percent strikes thrown rate and 10 percent whiff rate, are actually pretty enticing. House has deserved better results, but he has been victimized by a .293 batting average on grounders that looks just plain unlucky, and by four short-distance home runs (according to ESPN Hit Tracker's criteria). With a 3.57 ERA over his last four starts, the turnaround has already begun for House, and with starts against the Twins and Royals this week, it could easily continue. Both teams are among the bottom third in the majors in batting average against ground ball pitchers.

Start the following one-start pitchers over House: Lance Lynn, Jordan Zimmermann, Danny Salazar

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Cubs' Kyle Schwarber snaps skid, hits fourth home run on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:39 am ET) Cubs rookie catcher Kyle Schwarber enjoyed a productive night at the plate in Saturday's 4-2 win over the Brewers. Schwarber went 2 for 4 with his fourth career home run.

Schwarber's seventh-inning solo blast gave the Cubs their fourth and final run. The youngster has been getting regular playing time since returning to the majors about two weeks ago.

But he has been struggling with the bat recently, going 5 for his last 22 over the last seven games.


Astros C Hank Conger homers twice in career night on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:33 am ET) Astros catcher Hank Conger had a huge night at the plate in the 9-2 win over the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Conger went 3 for 4 with a pair of home runs, his first career multi-home run game of his career.

Conger feasted on the pitching of Jeremy Hellickson on Saturday. He launched a solo shot in the third inning, and then blasted his first-career grand slam in the fourth inning.

Conger now has eight home runs on the year, which represents a new career-high.

He has been sharing time behind the plate with Jason Castro. But Conger is 8 for 26 with three homers and eight RBI over his past eight games.


Giants' Hunter Pence hits 11th home run in 11th inning on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:29 am ET) Giants right fielder (and Texas-native) Hunter Pence came through with the biggest hit of the night on Saturday. Pence drilled a solo home run in the top of the 11th inning, en route to the 9-7 win over the Rangers. 

Pence, who was born in Fort Worth and went to Arlington High School, went 2 for 5 in the game with his 11th home run of the season.

Of Pence's 191 career home runs, 74 were of the go-ahead variety. Over his past 10 games, Pence is batting .342 with two homers and seven RBI.


Giants' Buster Posey homers among three hits in win Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:22 am ET) Giants catcher Buster Posey--who served as the designated hitter on Saturday--went 3 for 5 with a double and a home run in the 9-7 win over the Rangers. 

Posey hit a solo home run--his 15th of the year--off Cole Hamels in the seventh inning to cut the Rangers' lead to one run. Then, after the Rangers had tacked on a couple of runs, Posey added an RBI double in the eighth to once again bring the Giants within one. He score the tying run later in the inning, and the Giants won the game in 11 innings.

Posey has been scorching at the plate recently. Over his past eight games, Posey is batting a robust .438 with three doubles, a home run and five RBI. He continued his ownership over Hamels, as he is now 13 for 27 with two home runs against the left-hander.


Athletics RP Pat Venditte throws Triple-A rehab game Saturday
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:17 am ET) Athletics relief pitcher Pat Venditte played in a rehab game for Triple-A Nashville on Saturday.

Venditte tossed 2/3 of an inning and allowed one hit. He is currently on the 15-day disabled list with a shoulder injury.


Giants 1B Brandon Belt slugs two solo home runs in win Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:14 am ET) Giants 1B Brandon Belt had a big night at the plate in the 9-7 win over the Rangers. The Texas-native went 2 for 4 with a pair of solo home runs in the extra-innings victory.

Belt bookended the Giants' scoring on Saturday. He got the Giants on the board with a solo home run in the third inning, cutting the Rangers' lead to one. Then, after the Giants took a 9-8 lead in the 11th, he delivered his second solo dinger of the night, giving him 12 homers on the year.

Both of Belt's home runs on Saturday came off of left-handers--he had not homered off of a southpaw this season prior to Saturday. 

After Saturday's performance, Belt is batting .306 with three home runs and nine home runs over his past 10 games.


Indians SP Cody Anderson picks up third loss of the season
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:11 am ET) Indians starting pitcher Cody Anderson didn't have his best stuff during his start against the Athletics on Saturday.

Anderson allowed four runs, three of them earned, on six hits in 6 2/3 innings of work. He gave up two walks and a home run while earning his third loss of the season.

With the loss, Anderson dropped tp 2-3 on the year with a 3.38 ERA.


Giants RP Santiago Casilla gets 27th save on Saturday
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:08 am ET) Giants closer Santiago Casilla worked a scoreless ninth inning on Saturday to claim his 27th save of the season. Casilla, who gave up one hit in the inning, needed just 12 pitches to preserve the 9-7 extra-innings win over the Rangers. 

Casilla has now converted seven consecutive save chances, and his 27 saves represent a career-high for the 12-year veteran.


Giants' Chris Heston can't go five innings on Saturday vs. Rangers
by Jason Lempert | Staff Writer
(12:05 am ET) Giants starter Chris Heston labored in his outing against the Rangers on Saturday. The young right-hander allowed three runs on seven hits, but was unable to get out of the fifth inning. He lasted 4 2/3, walking two and striking out two. He threw 93 pitches, with just 51 going for strikes. 

Heston took a no-decision, as the Giants won the game 9-7 in extra innings. He got off to a shaky start, giving up two runs in the first inning. He got through the next two frames unscathed, despite a couple of baserunners.

But he allowed a third run in the fourth, and was never really able to get anything going in this one. Still, Heston is 3-0 with a very solid 1.64 ERA over his past five starts.


Athletics' Aaron Brooks looks dominant in first start
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(12:01 am ET) Athletics pitcher Aaron Brooks didn't look like someone making their first start of the season on Saturday against the Indians, he looked like an ace.

Brooks allowed just one run on five hits over 7 1/3 innings of work. He struck out five batters and didn't give up any walks.

With the win, Brooks improved to 1-0 on the year with a 3.09 ERA.


 
 
 
Rankings