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Prospects Report: A long-term view

Michael Hurcomb
Fantasy Writer
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You might not believe it, but there was a time when Dodgers outfield prospect Joc Pederson was a relatively unknown player. I know it's difficult to imagine given the player he has blossomed into, but Pederson wasn't a high draft pick coming out of high school (11th round in 2010) and didn't become a top-100 prospect until 2013. Though, the Dodgers paid Pederson like a top prospect, handing him the second-highest signing bonus ($600,000) in the team's 2010 draft class to keep him from going to USC.

I had to go back into the archives to see what was being said about Pederson at the beginning of his career to determine just how far he's really come over the last few years. I dug up a scouting report from Baseball America from 2011. They had Pederson ranked as the Dodgers' 25th-best prospect. Here is a snippet from BA's analysis:

"Joc, who was also a wide receiver in high school, doesn't have any dominant tools, but he has the potential to be average across the board and certainly would have gone higher in the draft if not for his price tag. He has a physical, athletic build and the potential to add strength as he matures. … He has a quick bat and average raw power."

The scouting report on Pederson has certainly changed over the last few years. He's now not only one of the top prospects in baseball, but coming into the season Baseball America had labeled Pederson as "a multi-dimensional player whose tools are average to plus across the board, with comparisons ranging from Curtis Granderson to Jim Edmonds."

With Pederson on the doorstep to the majors, his rise from obscurity got me thinking about players right now with relatively low ownership in CBSSports.com leagues that are showing long-term upside. These are players whose ownership are not higher than 3 percent, but names owners in long-term keeper formats might want to put on your radar.

Luis Severino, SP, Yankees
Affiliate: Double-A Trenton
2014 stats (Class A, Double-A): 5-3, 2.50 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 111 strikeouts, 23 walks and two home runs allowed in 20 starts (97 1/3 innings)
Severino is one of the fastest rising prospects in baseball. MLB.com now has him ranked as the Yankees' top prospect and Baseball America slotted him 34th when they released their Midseason Top 50 list. The 20-year-old right-hander has been pretty dominant in his pro career. He has a 2.23 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 205 2/3 innings. He is also striking out 9.1 batters and walking just 2.2 per nine innings, and has allowed just five home runs in his career. While his fastball can reach the high 90s, it usually sits in the mid-90s. His slider and changeup are also developing into potential plus pitches. Severino earned an in-season promotion last year and has already earned two in-season promotions this year. He's making a beeline for the Bronx, and hopefully he won't fizzle out like Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos did once they reached Triple-A. In Betances' defense, he's carved out a niche as an All-Star reliever, but he was once projected to have ace potential, which seems to be the path Severino is headed.

Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks
Affiliate: Double-A Mobile
2014 stats: .315/.393/.552/.945, five triples, 14 home runs, 35 doubles, 79 RBI, 59 runs, 47 walks and 98 strikeouts in 101 games
I made brief mention of Lamb last week when I was talking about fellow Diamondbacks third-base prospect Brandon Drury. The two are basically neck-and-neck when you look at any prospect rankings for the Arizona organization, but you won't hear the Diamondbacks complaining about being flush with talent at the position. Lamb has done nothing but crush the baseball since turning pro. He has a career .316/.400/.547/.947 slash line in 237 games. Although he was a sixth-round pick in 2012, the Diamondbacks knew Lamb needed work with his swing since he was a slash hitter in college. Well, the Diamondbacks have gotten the 23-year-old infielder to tap into his above-average raw power, while being able to maintain his plate discipline and feel for hitting. The Diamondbacks might have to move Lamb or Drury off the hot corner or trade one, but Lamb has shown great ability to hit in the minors and that's what Fantasy owners want to see.

Steven Matz, SP, Mets
Affiliate: Double-A Binghamton
2014 stats (Class A, Double-A): 8-6, 2.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 99 strikeouts, 30 walks and three home runs allowed in 19 starts (110 2/3 innings)
Matz had a long recovery following Tommy John surgery in 2010, but he's been a great success story coming back from the major elbow injury. He has a 2.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 46 career starts. He is also striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings and has allowed just eight home runs in 246 innings. You can see why the Mets were very patient with the 2009 second-round pick. Matz generates a lot of ground balls thanks to his low-90s fastball and long stride that helps him keep the ball low in the strike zone. Matz has improved his command, which is great because the scouts feel his changeup and curveball could develop into plus pitches. He is showing potential to develop into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter at the major-league level.

Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies
Affiliate: Class A Asheville
2014 stats: .278/.349/.484/.833, two triples, 12 home runs, 36 doubles, 83 RBI, 67 runs, 42 walks, 113 strikeouts and five stolen bases in 96 games
The former high school quarterback hasn't looked bad for choosing baseball over football. The 2013 second-round pick has produced a .294/.369/.520/.889 slash line through his first 155 games. He also has 23 home runs, 54 doubles and 135 RBI. He's already an offensive standout and hasn't even progressed past low Class A. Heck, he is just 19-years-old, so it's scary to think what his power potential might be once he grows into his 6-foot-2 frame. McMahon has a fluid left-handed swing and an ability to hit to all fields that allows him to make steady contact. He projects to have plus power and the ability to hit for a high average. It's great that he might one day call Coors Field home. However, the Rockies have a pretty good third baseman in Nolan Arenado, who is expected to remain at the hot corner for years to come. McMahon might have to learn a new position or could end up as a trade candidate, but wherever he lands, this kid seems to have a bright future.

Christian Walker, 1B, Orioles
Affiliate: Triple-A Norfolk
2014 stats (Double-A, Triple-A): .301/.374/.517/.891, two triples, 18 doubles, 22 home runs, 86 RBI, 63 runs, 47 walks, 94 strikeouts and two stolen bases in 107 games
Walker entered 2014 with some scouts doubting his ability to put up big home run numbers. He silenced a lot of those critics when he hit 20 home runs in 95 games prior to his promotion to Triple-A Norfolk. Since moving up to Triple-A, the 2012 fourth-round pick has homered twice and is slugging .524 in 12 games. Walker hit .300 in his first full season as a pro in 2013, and there was little doubt about his ability to make contact. He has been lauded for his gap-to-gap power, but Walker has really taken a step forward this year, which has turned into a breakout performance for the 23-year-old first baseman. Walker has taken a big leap up the prospect rankings, as he is now considered the team's fifth-best prospect by MLB.com. As MLB.com notes: Walker "fits the traditional first-base profile better now than scouts thought he would when he was at South Carolina."

Bonus Player

Austin Voth, SP, Nationals
Affiliate: Class A Potomac
2014 stats (low Class A, high Class A): 6-4, 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 114 strikeouts, 29 walks, 67 hits and three home runs allowed in 19 starts (107 1/3 innings)
The 2013 fifth-round pick has been pretty spectacular as a pro. He is 9-4 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 30 career starts. He is striking out 9.9 batters and walking 2.0 per nine innings, and he has allowed just three home runs in 153 2/3 innings. Voth's fastball can touch the mid-90s, but he mostly sits in the low-90s. His secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider) don't appear to be more than average offerings, but Voth really shines because of his ability to command his pitches. He has an advanced feel for pitching and can work both sides of the plate. Voth said he likes to lean on his fastball and "challenge hitters," per The Washington Post. Well, whatever he is doing is working. He was originally projected as a back-of-the-rotation arm, but he could be developing into much more. He doesn't get hit hard, he doesn't walk a lot of batters and he has a pretty good strikeout rate. If he can keep that up in the high minors, then Voth is a name we might be hearing a lot about in the future.

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Player News
Mets, Rockies still in talks for Troy Tulowitzki
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:28 am ET) The Mets and Rockies have been discussing a potential deal that would sent shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to New York this offseason, CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports. However, it remains to be seen how likely of a chance New York will have of acquiring Tulowitzki via trade. A source told Heyman the likelihood of a trade to the Mets appear to be "slim" at the moment.

Tulowitzki was hitting a league-best .340 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI before suffering a hip injury in the middle of the year. He has $118 million remaining over the next six seasons.


Braves in 'serious talks' with mystery team regarding Justin Upton
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:15 am ET) The Braves have engaged in "serious talks" with an unknown team regarding a Justin Upton trade, CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports Friday. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports first reported that Atlanta is closing in on a deal.

According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com the Braves have had recent talks with the Athletics, Rangers and Mariners this offseason. However, the Padres appear to be the club most likely to land Upton at this point, per Bowman.

Upton is coming off a season in which he hit .270/.342/.491 over 566 at-bats. He slashed 267/.348/.478 through his first two seasons with the Braves. The 27-year-old entering the final year of his contract and is expected to make $14.5 million in 2015 before becoming a free agent.


Giants, right-hander Jake Peavy strike 2-year, $24M deal
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(7:25 am ET) Right-hander Jake Peavy, who went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA for the Giants after an in-season trade from Boston, agreed to a two-year, $24 million deal by the world champs, CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman confirmed early Friday.

Peavy did not duplicate his regular-season success during the postseason, going 1-2, including 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA in the World Series. Before the trade, Peavy was 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA for the Red Sox.

For his career, Peavy is 139-111 with a 3.53 ERA and 2,027 strikeouts over 13 seasons.


Report: Padres continue to talk to Braves about Justin Upton
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:15 am ET) The Padres continue to talk to the Braves about outfielder Justin Upton, according to Bleacher Report's Scott Miller.

Despite the fact that the Padres acquired both Matt Kemp and Wil Myers on Thursday, the team may not be done yet. It's unclear where Upton would fit into the team's plans, but he would be a clear upgrade over whoever the club is planning to start in center field. If the team were to acquire Upton, one of that trio would be pushed into action in center. While Kemp has experience at the position, he's not considered a strong defender. 

The 27-year-old Upton is coming off a season in which he hit .270/.342/.491 over 566 at-bats.


Report: Rangers showing interest in Brandon Beachy
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Rangers have shown interest in pitcher Brandon Beachy, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Beachy is coming off Tommy John surgery, but multiple teams are said to have interest in signing him. The 28-year-old has a 3.23 career ERA over 267 2/3 innings, but underwent his second Tommy John surgery in March. Beachy's representative, Robert Martin said Beachy has multiple offers, but doesn't believe a decision is imminent. 


Report: Athletics sending Derek Norris to Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Athletics have agreed to trade catcher Derek Norris to the Padres, according to the New York Daily News.

After dealing Yasmani Grandal to Los Angeles in the Matt Kemp deal, the Padres were in need of a new backstop. It didn't take long for them to replace Grandal, as the team acquired Norris shortly after the Kemp deal went through.

Pitcher Seth Streich will also head to the Padres in the deal, according to FoxSports.com The 23-year-old posted a 3.16 ERA over 114 innings in High A last season.

The 25-year-old Norris is coming off a season in which he hit .270/.361/.403 over 385 at-bats. Norris is under team control through the 2018 season.

The Athletics are expected to receive pitchers Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez in the deal, according to Yahoo! The 24-year-old Alvarez posted a 1.25 ERA over 43 1/3 innings at Double-A last year.

Hahn, 25, posted a 3.07 ERA over 73 1/3 innings in the majors last year. He was excellent in Double-A, posting a 1.91 ERA in 42 1/3 innings before being called up.


Padres, Rays and Nationals complete Wil Myers trade
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Padres, Rays and Nationals have completed a trade that will send Wil Myers to San Diego, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

The deal had been in the works for a few days, but was finally agreed to late Thursday night. Myers, 24, will head to the Padres in the deal. He hit .222/.294/.320 over 325 at-bats with the Rays last season. Myers also missed time due to a wrist injury. 

The Padres will also receive catcher Ryan Hanigan and pitchers Gerardo Reyes and Jose Castillo in the deal. 

Tampa Bay will receive outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Travis Ott from the Nationals. Souza, 25, hit .345/.427/.577 in 357 at-bats spread over three levels last year. 

The Rays will also receive catcher Rene Rivera, first baseman Jake Bauers and pitcher Burch Smith from San Diego.

Washington is set to acquire pitcher Joe Ross from San Diego. The team will also receive infielder Trea Turner in the deal. Turner was a 2014 draft pick, and cannot be traded until midseason, so he's currently considered a player to be named later.


Phillies to send Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Phillies have completed a trade that will send shortstop Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. News that the deal was finally going through was initially reported by Yahoo!

The deal has been in place for some time, but was dependent on a separate Dodgers deal going through. The Dodgers will send pitcher Zach Eflin to Philadelphia as part of the Rollins trade, but first needed to acquire Eflin from the Padres in the Matt Kemp deal. The Dodgers and Padres finally reached an agreement late Thursday night, meaning Eflin could finally be sent to Philadelphia. The 20-year-old Eflin posted a 3.80 ERA in 128 innings at High A last year.

Rollins, 36, hit .243/.323/.394 over 538 at-bats last season. He's in the final year of his contract, and is set to make $11 million next year.


Dodgers complete Matt Kemp deal with Padres
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Dodgers and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send outfielder Matt Kemp to San Diego, confirms CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman. News that the deal had finally come together was first reported by Yahoo!

The trade has been in the works for some time, but was dependent on Kemp passing a physical. It was reported early Thursday that Kemp's physical revealed arthritic hips. The Padres had to to figure out insurance on the contract, which is why it took so long for the deal to go through.

Catcher Tim Federowicz will also head to San Diego in the deal. The Dodgers will send $32 million over as well. 

In return, Los Angeles is set to receive catcher Yasmani Grandal and pitcher Joe Weiland and Zach Eflin. Eflin is expected to be flipped to Philadelphia for shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

The 30-year-old Kemp hit .287/.346/.506 over 541 at-bats last year. Kemp is set to earn a little over $21 million in each of the next five seasons. 


Rockies seeking veteran right-handers to fill out rotation
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) The Rockies are looking at a number of veteran right-handers to fill out the rotation, according to MLB.com.

Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, Josh Johnson and Kyle Kendrick have all been considered by the club. With Johnson reportedly signing a deal with the Padres, that leaves the other three as options for the club. Though the team is said to be interested in all three players, it has not engaged in serious conversations with any of them. 


 
 
 
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