Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

By the Numbers: Bridging the rankings gap

  •  

We like it when you visit our rest-of-season rankings page, and we like it even more when you give it a close inspection. When our ordering of players looks askew to you, we often hear about it, and in many cases, that provides an excuse to research the players in question in depth.

When I peruse my own rankings alongside the season-to-date Fantasy point rankings and they're not even close to matching up, sometimes it makes me wonder what I've missed. Sometimes, though, I'm so confident in a player (or so mistrustful, in the case of a low ranking) that I stubbornly stick with my assessment, despite all of the evidence that has piled up over the months. At this point in the season, that's not the best practice, so more and more, I'm questioning these discrepancies as they come up.

I'm focusing on six of the deepest discrepancies here, some of which were suggested by readers via Twitter. It just so happens that I'm willing to defend three of them, while upon closer inspection, the other three need adjustments. So that will keep things nice and symmetrical for this column.

Not only do these analyses delve into why I see certain players as being due for a change in value, but I've enlisted the help of some performance indicators that can help us to understand a player's performance above and beyond what the surface stats tell us. As I have noted in other forums recently, I'm finding the batted ball distance data on BaseballHeatMaps.com especially enlightening, and all references to average distances of hit balls are from that source.

Note: Season-to-date stats are current for games played through Tuesday, Aug. 5.

Rankings that won't change

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (My H2H ranking: 9; Actual H2H ranking: 33): Davis is struggling mightily just to put the ball in play lately, as he has struck out 44 times in his last 85 at-bats. No matter how much power a hitter may have, he won't produce much of anything striking out in more than half of his at-bats. If there's an encouraging sign, it's that Davis has maintained his home run pace from the first three months of the season, even though he is striking out nearly 50 percent more often since then. If Davis can only get back to being a bad contact hitter instead of a horrific one, he has a chance to finish out the season as an elite first baseman. Davis is hitting flies almost as far on average as he did last year (305 feet versus 309 feet), which makes his 18.4 percent home run-to-flyball ratio -- as compared to last season's 28.0 percent rate -- look unlucky. His .152 batting average on grounders also looks primed to improve. At full bore, Davis is a top five first baseman, so his current ranking isn't built on the expectation of a return to 2013 levels. The signs of an impending power and batting average rebound are still enough for me to keep him in my top 10.

J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles (My H2H ranking: 14; Actual H2H ranking: 22): We have been waiting all season for Hardy's power to show up, but so far it's stood us up. There is really no clear explanation as to why Hardy has made it through four months of the season with just four homers. He has not become more of a ground ball hitter, and his average flyball distance of 277 feet is right in line with his averages from the last two seasons. The biggest clues lie in Hardy's strikeout per at-bat rate, which has increased from last season's 12 percent to 20 percent, and his spray chart which shows that he isn't pulling the ball quite as often as he had in 2012 and 2013. Those developments are enough for me to keep Hardy out of the top 10, where he has resided the last two years, but not dramatic enough for me to expect that he won't improve his power production going forward.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves (My H2H ranking: 7; Actual H2H ranking: 18): Simmons is still elite at making contact, striking out 39 times in 394 at-bats. He is also hitting flyballs 12 feet farther on average than he did last year and popping up at less than half the rate. So why isn't Simmons hitting for average or power? After dropping his ground ball rate to 43 percent last season, he's cranked it back up to 53 percent, but that's not a convincing explanation. Most of the regression on Simmons' ground ball rate has come over the past month, but his power slump preceded that by two months. Also, even with a high ground ball rate two seasons ago, Simmons showed more power than he has this year. Now that he is hitting near the bottom of the Braves' order again, Simmons might not be able to pick up his RBI pace, but his low batting average, run total and extra-base hit rate seem like a fluke, even with two-thirds of the season elapsed. Given how shallow the shortstop pool is, it still feels premature to drop Simmons in the rankings. Of course, it won't be if his ankle injury turns out to be serious, but for now, I'll keep Simmons at No. 7.

Rankings due for an adjustment

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies (My H2H ranking: 16; Actual H2H ranking: 80): Gonzalez owes his low ranking mostly to missing 46 games, but the finger, ankle and knee injuries that have kept him out of action may have taken their toll when he has played. Though a total of 10 home runs and 14 doubles in 67 games hasn't put Gonzalez too far off his typical pace, he is still being hurt by a relative lack of power. In each of the last two years, Gonzalez has been among the leaders in average flyball distance, topping 310 feet in both campaigns. This season, Gonzalez is averaging 293 feet per flyball, which could explain why his BABIP on flyballs (.067) and line drives (.596) are well below his norms. So, yes, Gonzalez has lost some power and speed, which is affecting his batting average, run production and stolen base total, and he's still dealing with an ankle injury. Though he has more upside than the outfielders just behind him in the rankings, his health issues are enough to drop him behind Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce, among others. Gonzalez will move down a few spots in my next rankings update.

Michael Brantley, OF, Indians (My H2H ranking: 18; Actual H2H ranking: 3): Brantley has always been a very good contact hitter and mild stolen base threat, but he has added power and run production to the mix this season. His home run production has slowed down since mid-May, as he has clouted just seven homers in his last 66 games. That's a far cry from the 30-plus homer pace Brantley embarked on in the early weeks, but he's made up for the dropoff by clubbing 19 doubles since May 20. Given how rarely Brantley strikes out and how often he hits line drives, that impressive pace seems sustainable. Maybe Brantley's 31 percent line drive rate will decline at least a little, but he could still hit .310 with a dozen doubles over the remainder of the season. That type of production, along with moderate contributions to home runs and steals, leapfrogs him over several outfielders and gives him a slight edge over Hunter Pence and a disappointing Bryce Harper. That makes Brantley a top 10 outfielder going forward.

Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates (My H2H ranking: 32; Actual H2H ranking: 129): As a rookie, Cole established his potential as a top 40 starting pitcher. He really picked up steam over the season's final month and a half, as he got more than a strikeout per inning and allowed just a single home run over his last eight starts. With an 8.2 K/9 ratio and 9.6 percent swinging strike rate, Cole has been slightly less effective at avoiding contact this season, but those rates are plenty high, especially when he can get grounders on 54 percent of hit balls. On the surface, it looks like Cole should be able to match last season's 3.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP once he returns from the disabled list, but there are two troubling signs. He has already allowed three more line drive doubles than he did last season (per Baseball-Reference.com), even though he has made five fewer starts. Given that he has allowed the average liner to travel 22 feet farther than he did last year, it may not be a matter of bad luck. Also, with a 26 percent chase rate for pitches out of the strike zone (according to FanGraphs.com), Cole's wilder offerings have been among the least tempting in the majors. That makes him a poor bet to improve on a mediocre 3.0 BB/9 ratio. Even if he is ready to return fully recovered from his lat injury for next week, it's time for me to lower my expectations for Cole. Pitchers outside the top 50 all have some substantial flaws, so Cole won't fall that far in my rankings.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Giants' Sabean: No plans to talk to Max Scherzer
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/20/2014) Giants general manager Brian Sabean said that the Giants have not talked to free-agent pitcher Max Scherzer and have no plans to do so, the Mercury News reports.

Scherzer is the biggest name on the pitching market and could be seeking a deal north of the $155-million pact signed by Cubs pitcher Jon Lester. His price tag may not be feasible for the Giants' budget. The 2013 AL Cy Young winner went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 252:63 K:BB ratio in 220 1/3 innings with the Tigers in 2014.


Report: Nick Hundley has two-year offer, unlikely to rejoin Orioles
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/20/2014) Free-agent catcher Nick Hundley has a two-year offer on the table from an unidentified team, making him unlikely to return to the Orioles, masnsports.com reports.

The Orioles declined a $5-million option on Hundley for the 2015 season but had interest in bringing him back into the fold at a lesser salary. He hit .243/.273/.358 with six home runs and 22 RBI in 218 at-bats between Baltimore and San Diego in 2014.


Report: Phillies could join Asdrubal Cabrera market
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/20/2014) The Phillies could become involved in the market for free-agent infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, ESPN.com reports.

The Phillies traded their longtime starter at shortstop to the Dodgers this offseason and will be looking to fill that hole in the infield. However, the team will have to shed some additional payroll in order to make a run at the infielder, according to the report. Cabrera hit .241/.307/.387 with 14 home runs, 61 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 553 at-bats between Cleveland and Washington in 2014.


Rangers release Ben Rowen
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/20/2014) The Rangers have released relief pitcher Ben Rowen . Rowen, who was designated for assignment earlier in the week, posted a 4.15 ERA in 8 2/3 innings with the Rangers in 2014 as well as a 3.45 ERA and 31:9 K:BB ratio in 47 innings with Triple-A Round Rock.

Nationals sign Mark Minicozzi to minor-league deal
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/20/2014) The Nationals have signed infielder Mark Minicozzi to a minor-league deal.

Minicozzi, 31, hit .298/.400/.470 with 12 home runs and 62 RBI in 315 at-bats with Triple-A San Jose in 2014. He has yet to appear in a regular-season game in the majors.


Indians sign pitcher Scott Downs to minor-league contract
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12/20/2014) The Indians announced they signed pitcher Scott Downs to a minor-league contract Saturday.

Downs also received a non-roster invite to MLB camp.


Red Sox, Padres complete Hanigan-for-Middlebrooks trade
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/19/2014) The Red Sox and Padres completed a trade Friday, with catcher Ryan Hanigan heading to Boston in exchange for third baseman Will Middlebrooks, the Red Sox announced.

Hanigan, 34, is signed for two more seasons with a team option for 2017. He hit .218/.318/.324 with five home runs and 34 RBI in 225 at-bats in 2014.

Middlebrooks, 26, is eligible for arbitration for the first time after the 2015 season. He hit .191/.256/.265 with two home runs and 19 RBI in 215 at-bats in 2014.


Giants get Class A hurlers for Marlins 3B McGehee
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/19/2014) The Giants are trading minor league right-handers Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo for Marlins third baseman Casey McGehee.

Both pitched at a Class A level last season and averaged more than a strikeout per inning.


Dodgers dump RHP Brian Wilson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/19/2014) Three days after designating reliever Brian Wilson for assignment, the Dodgers have released him.

Wilson struggled in 2014 after a strong stint upon his arrival with Los Angeles in 2013. He finished the year with a 4.66 ERA and 29 walks in 48 1/3 innings.


Report: LHP Craig Breslow staying with Red Sox
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(12/19/2014) Left-hander reliever Craig Breslow is set to sign a one-year deal with the Red Sox for $2 million, per WEEI.com.

Breslow pitched for Boston the last two years, but collapsed in 2014 after compiling a 1.81 ERA the previous year. He finished with a 5.93 ERA and 73 hits in 54 1/3 innings.


 
 
 
Rankings