Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

By the Numbers: Bridging the rankings gap

  •  

We like it when you visit our rest-of-season rankings page, and we like it even more when you give it a close inspection. When our ordering of players looks askew to you, we often hear about it, and in many cases, that provides an excuse to research the players in question in depth.

When I peruse my own rankings alongside the season-to-date Fantasy point rankings and they're not even close to matching up, sometimes it makes me wonder what I've missed. Sometimes, though, I'm so confident in a player (or so mistrustful, in the case of a low ranking) that I stubbornly stick with my assessment, despite all of the evidence that has piled up over the months. At this point in the season, that's not the best practice, so more and more, I'm questioning these discrepancies as they come up.

I'm focusing on six of the deepest discrepancies here, some of which were suggested by readers via Twitter. It just so happens that I'm willing to defend three of them, while upon closer inspection, the other three need adjustments. So that will keep things nice and symmetrical for this column.

Not only do these analyses delve into why I see certain players as being due for a change in value, but I've enlisted the help of some performance indicators that can help us to understand a player's performance above and beyond what the surface stats tell us. As I have noted in other forums recently, I'm finding the batted ball distance data on BaseballHeatMaps.com especially enlightening, and all references to average distances of hit balls are from that source.

Note: Season-to-date stats are current for games played through Tuesday, Aug. 5.

Rankings that won't change

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (My H2H ranking: 9; Actual H2H ranking: 33): Davis is struggling mightily just to put the ball in play lately, as he has struck out 44 times in his last 85 at-bats. No matter how much power a hitter may have, he won't produce much of anything striking out in more than half of his at-bats. If there's an encouraging sign, it's that Davis has maintained his home run pace from the first three months of the season, even though he is striking out nearly 50 percent more often since then. If Davis can only get back to being a bad contact hitter instead of a horrific one, he has a chance to finish out the season as an elite first baseman. Davis is hitting flies almost as far on average as he did last year (305 feet versus 309 feet), which makes his 18.4 percent home run-to-flyball ratio -- as compared to last season's 28.0 percent rate -- look unlucky. His .152 batting average on grounders also looks primed to improve. At full bore, Davis is a top five first baseman, so his current ranking isn't built on the expectation of a return to 2013 levels. The signs of an impending power and batting average rebound are still enough for me to keep him in my top 10.

J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles (My H2H ranking: 14; Actual H2H ranking: 22): We have been waiting all season for Hardy's power to show up, but so far it's stood us up. There is really no clear explanation as to why Hardy has made it through four months of the season with just four homers. He has not become more of a ground ball hitter, and his average flyball distance of 277 feet is right in line with his averages from the last two seasons. The biggest clues lie in Hardy's strikeout per at-bat rate, which has increased from last season's 12 percent to 20 percent, and his spray chart which shows that he isn't pulling the ball quite as often as he had in 2012 and 2013. Those developments are enough for me to keep Hardy out of the top 10, where he has resided the last two years, but not dramatic enough for me to expect that he won't improve his power production going forward.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves (My H2H ranking: 7; Actual H2H ranking: 18): Simmons is still elite at making contact, striking out 39 times in 394 at-bats. He is also hitting flyballs 12 feet farther on average than he did last year and popping up at less than half the rate. So why isn't Simmons hitting for average or power? After dropping his ground ball rate to 43 percent last season, he's cranked it back up to 53 percent, but that's not a convincing explanation. Most of the regression on Simmons' ground ball rate has come over the past month, but his power slump preceded that by two months. Also, even with a high ground ball rate two seasons ago, Simmons showed more power than he has this year. Now that he is hitting near the bottom of the Braves' order again, Simmons might not be able to pick up his RBI pace, but his low batting average, run total and extra-base hit rate seem like a fluke, even with two-thirds of the season elapsed. Given how shallow the shortstop pool is, it still feels premature to drop Simmons in the rankings. Of course, it won't be if his ankle injury turns out to be serious, but for now, I'll keep Simmons at No. 7.

Rankings due for an adjustment

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies (My H2H ranking: 16; Actual H2H ranking: 80): Gonzalez owes his low ranking mostly to missing 46 games, but the finger, ankle and knee injuries that have kept him out of action may have taken their toll when he has played. Though a total of 10 home runs and 14 doubles in 67 games hasn't put Gonzalez too far off his typical pace, he is still being hurt by a relative lack of power. In each of the last two years, Gonzalez has been among the leaders in average flyball distance, topping 310 feet in both campaigns. This season, Gonzalez is averaging 293 feet per flyball, which could explain why his BABIP on flyballs (.067) and line drives (.596) are well below his norms. So, yes, Gonzalez has lost some power and speed, which is affecting his batting average, run production and stolen base total, and he's still dealing with an ankle injury. Though he has more upside than the outfielders just behind him in the rankings, his health issues are enough to drop him behind Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce, among others. Gonzalez will move down a few spots in my next rankings update.

Michael Brantley, OF, Indians (My H2H ranking: 18; Actual H2H ranking: 3): Brantley has always been a very good contact hitter and mild stolen base threat, but he has added power and run production to the mix this season. His home run production has slowed down since mid-May, as he has clouted just seven homers in his last 66 games. That's a far cry from the 30-plus homer pace Brantley embarked on in the early weeks, but he's made up for the dropoff by clubbing 19 doubles since May 20. Given how rarely Brantley strikes out and how often he hits line drives, that impressive pace seems sustainable. Maybe Brantley's 31 percent line drive rate will decline at least a little, but he could still hit .310 with a dozen doubles over the remainder of the season. That type of production, along with moderate contributions to home runs and steals, leapfrogs him over several outfielders and gives him a slight edge over Hunter Pence and a disappointing Bryce Harper. That makes Brantley a top 10 outfielder going forward.

Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates (My H2H ranking: 32; Actual H2H ranking: 129): As a rookie, Cole established his potential as a top 40 starting pitcher. He really picked up steam over the season's final month and a half, as he got more than a strikeout per inning and allowed just a single home run over his last eight starts. With an 8.2 K/9 ratio and 9.6 percent swinging strike rate, Cole has been slightly less effective at avoiding contact this season, but those rates are plenty high, especially when he can get grounders on 54 percent of hit balls. On the surface, it looks like Cole should be able to match last season's 3.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP once he returns from the disabled list, but there are two troubling signs. He has already allowed three more line drive doubles than he did last season (per Baseball-Reference.com), even though he has made five fewer starts. Given that he has allowed the average liner to travel 22 feet farther than he did last year, it may not be a matter of bad luck. Also, with a 26 percent chase rate for pitches out of the strike zone (according to FanGraphs.com), Cole's wilder offerings have been among the least tempting in the majors. That makes him a poor bet to improve on a mediocre 3.0 BB/9 ratio. Even if he is ready to return fully recovered from his lat injury for next week, it's time for me to lower my expectations for Cole. Pitchers outside the top 50 all have some substantial flaws, so Cole won't fall that far in my rankings.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Royals SP Jason Vargas unable to factor into decision Game 4
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:28 am ET) Royals pitcher Jason Vargas was unable to factor into the decision in Game 4 of the World Series against the Giants at AT&T Park on Saturday.

Vargas surrendered a run on a fielder's choice in the opening frame, followed by a run-scoring single to Buster Posey in the third and a run-scoring single to Hunter Pence in the fifth. The southpaw permitted three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out three over four innings of an 11-4 defeat. He has allowed six earned runs over 15 1/3 postseason innings.


Giants SP Ryan Vogelsong coughs up four runs in Game 4
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:23 am ET) Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong endured a rough outing and was unable to factor into the decision in Game 4 of the World Series against the Royals on Saturday.

Vogelsong tossed two scoreless frames before running into issues in the third. He permitted a run-scoring infield single to Eric Hosmer, a two-run single to Omar Infante and a run-scoring single to Salvador Perez before he was pulled for Jean Machi in the third.

He was charged with four runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out two over 2 2/3 innings of an 11-4 victory. Vogelsong has allowed four runs in back-to-back postseason outings.


Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton's offseason routine won't skip a beat
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton told reporters on Saturday he expects to have a normal offseason, per the New York Times. Stanton missed the final 17 games of the season after suffering multiple facial fractures and dental damage after being drilled in the face by an 88 mph fastball from Brewers pitcher Mike Fiers.

"It was a long process of just kind of laying around the house, and not being able to leave too much," Stanton said. "But I feel great now, and I'll be back to my normal offseason routine and shouldn't skip a beat."


Mets RP Jeurys Familia undergoes successful sports hernia surgery
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) Mets pitcher Jeurys Familia underwent successful surgery to repair bilateral sport hernias Friday in Philadelphia, the team announced.

Familia could be in the conversation to close for the Mets next season provided the sports hernia issue doesn't sideline him next spring. He posted a 2.21 ERA and 73:32 K:BB ratio in 77 1/3 innings while recording five saves this season.


Pirates DFA John Axford, Jeanmar Gomez
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Pirates designated two relievers for assignment Saturday, removing pitchers John Axford and Jeanmar Gomez from the 40-man roster.

The moves clear spots for Justin Sellers, who was acquired via trade Saturday, and Charlie Morton, who was activated from the 60-day disabled list. Axford posted a 4.09 ERA and 12:6 K:BB ratio in 11 innings after being acquired in a trade from the Indians in mid-August. Gomez posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 38:23 K:BB ratio in 62 innings.


Pirates activate Charlie Morton from 60-day disabled list
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Pirates activated pitcher Charlie Morton from the 60-day disabled list Saturday. Morton underwent hip surgery in late September after dealing with a sports hernia and could be a candidate to go back on the disabled list in the spring.

Indians trade Justin Sellers to Pirates for cash considerations
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Indians have traded shortstop Justin Sellers to the Pirates for cash considerations.

Sellers went 3 for 16 in 17 appearances with the Indians this season. He hit .254/.307/.335 with three home runs, 40 RBI and three stolen bases in 355 at-bats with Triple-A Columbus as well. Sellers has the ability to fill a utility role for the Pirates, as he's played at least 10 games each at shortstop, second base, third base and left field over the last two years.


Royals designated Liam Hendriks for assignment
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Royals have designated pitcher Liam Hendriks for assignment. Hendriks posted a 5.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 23:7 K:BB ratio in 32 2/3 innings during the regular season.

Phillies activate Mario Hollands from 60-day disabled list
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Phillies have activated pitcher Mario Hollands from the 60-day disabled list.

Hollands suffered an elbow injury in early September and was ruled out for the season, but it was determined he didn't require surgery on his Game 2 flexor strain. He delivered a 4.40 ERA in 50 appearances in 2014.


Phillies activate Cliff Lee from 60-day disabled list
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(10/25/2014) The Phillies have activated pitcher Cliff Lee from the 60-day disabled list. Lee is expected to begin a full throwing program in November and is on track to be ready for spring training.

 
 
 
Rankings