March 19, 2004 By David Gonos Commissioner.COM Fantasy Writer
Giants manager Felipe Alou had decided to move Barry Bonds to the
third spot in the lineup in February, but this week Bonds requested the
lineup revert back to the way it was with him batting cleanup again.
Alou obliged.
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Originally, Alou thought batting Bonds third would give him more at-bats
each game. Also, he hoped pitchers would be reluctant to intentionally
walk him or pitch around him so early.
"I believe the inclination would be less to walk him in the first inning
before there is a score," Alou told the San Jose Mercury News.
Fantasy owners might be disappointed by the step back in the lineup,
especially after considering Bonds' success in the third spot through
the years.
From 1995 to the middle part of 2002, Bonds hit third with incredible
success -- including a major-league record 73 home runs in 2001. But
since 1987, he has hit more than 15 points higher in the cleanup spot
(.324) than at third (.307). Unlike last season, his power numbers have
been better batting third throughout his career.
Bonds hit third in the lineup in 20 games last season, again with a much
higher average in the cleanup spot (.346) than one spot ahead (.323).
His power numbers were equally devastating at either spot.
Unfortunately, he did have more walks per at-bat as the fourth hitter
(one every 2.59 at-bats) than he did in the third spot (one every 2.95),
which helps out Rotisserie owners very little.
Another reason Fantasy owners should be glad he moved back to fourth is
that he will get fewer at-bats. That's almost the exact opposite type of
reasoning we've been trained to use as seasoned owners. More at-bats
equals more opportunities. Period. And in most cases, that's absolutely
true. But with Bonds, who has proved over the past few seasons that he
can do more damage with fewer at-bats than anyone else in the business,
this might be a blessing. Considering his age (he'll turn 40 in July),
the extra time out of the batter's box should help keep his
temperamental back healthy or, at least, healthier.
Things are looking up for Edgardo Alfonzo, as he moves to fifth in the Giants' batting order.(Getty Images)
This move has a few Fantasy implications, but the main beneficiary could
be Edgardo Alfonzo, who will now move to fifth in the lineup
instead of fourth. Again, this seems like the opposite of what could
help a batter, moving out of the cleanup spot.
In 2003, Alfonzo's first season in San Francisco, he hit fourth in the
lineup in six games and fifth in the lineup for 43. In those six games
at cleanup, he had only one RBI with no home runs and hit an abysmal
.238 in 21 at-bats. But when he hit fifth, mainly behind Bonds, Alfonzo
had seven home runs, 37 RBI and hit a respectable .283 in 152 at-bats.
Pitchers were happily allowing him opportunities, while trying to keep
Mr. Bonds out of McCovey Cove.
Fantasy owners should expect another great season from Bonds, although
his age could catch his home run totals if his back doesn't cooperate.
And Alfonzo is poised for a productive season after a disappointing
debut in San Francisco.
Marquis Grissom will likely bat third, in front of Bonds. Decent
numbers are also expected from Grissom, although he produced better in
the two earlier spots in the lineup.
Sele could be on the move
Aaron Sele is at a fork in the road with the Anaheim Angels. The
rotation is set ahead of him, with Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn,
Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey owning the first four spots.
Whether Sele can nail down the fifth spot, pitch out of the bullpen, be
traded, released or catch on with another team remains to be seen. He is
battling with Ramon Ortiz for the final spot.
Sele, who won at least 15 games each season as a starter from 1998 to
2001, is not looking forward to pitching out of the bullpen.
"I've pitched 11 years as a starter and made one relief appearance," he
told the Los Angeles Times. "You have a routine down. I can't
imagine it would be easy to make that adjustment."
Despite his last two injury-plagued seasons, Sele could be a productive
pitcher for some team, whether it's the former World Series champions or
a bottom-dweller. There are plenty of teams out there that wouldn't mind
matching him up against another team's third or fourth starter. His $8.5
million salary might be the only roadblock, though the team did manage
to part ways with Kevin Appier and his $15.67 million severance
check last season.
Sele's ERA has climbed almost one full run each season since 2001, while
he has pitched fewer innings each year. Fantasy owners in AL-only
leagues should consider taking a flier on Sele as a reserve pick in the
hopes that he lands a spot, in Anaheim or elsewhere, and can pitch
healthy again.
Battle in the outfield
Peter Bergeron is battling Endy Chavez and Terrmel
Sledge for the leadoff spot in Montreal. While Chavez has been
troubled by a strained neck over the past 10 days, Bergeron has been
hitting the ball like it owes him rent money.
Last season, Chavez hit .251 with a horrible .294 on-base percentage,
which basically opened the position up for competition this season.
Bergeron is hitting a team-leading .471 this spring, which is good for
fourth in the league overall. Also, his .526 on-base percentage is good
for sixth. Two seasons ago, he showed some promise before being sent to
the minors with little fanfare.
Sledge, meanwhile, has an even better on-base percentage than Bergeron
at .567. Despite being older than both Chavez and Bergeron, the
left-fielder is considered one of the team's best prospects. He was
named the Expos organizational player of the year last season.
Fantasy owners hope Sledge can be the slugger and run-producer he was in
Triple-A; curiously though, he has never played in a major-league game.
The leadoff spot in Montreal is not as valuable as it once was, now that
Vladimir Guerrero is in Southern California. But it still can prove to be
productive for a Fantasy owner as a late draft pick. Right now, Chavez
looks like the odd man out while Sledge has the inside position.
Bergeron could end up as the team's reserve outfielder.
Odds and ends
The Los Angeles Times reports the Dodgers are attempting to
acquire Larry Bigbie from Baltimore for a starting pitcher.
Reportedly, the Orioles are more interested in sending Jay Gibbons.
The rumor drops the Fantasy value of both batters since whichever one that
goes would be moving from Camden Yards, and the newly formidable
Orioles lineup, to spacious Dodger Stadium and the weak Dodger lineup.
The Milwaukee Brewers rotation is beginning to take shape. Ben
Sheets and Doug Davis are locks at the front, while
Chris Capuano and Wes Obermueller seem to have nailed down
spots as well, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Capuano is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in three outings this spring.
Obermueller, meanwhile, pitched four hitless innings Monday to bring
his spring scoreless streak to seven innings. Fantasy owners should
pay special interest to Obermueller, who could have a breakout
sophomore season at Miller Park. The final spot could go to Matt
Kinney, Adrian Hernandez, Travis Phelps or Ben Ford.
Ryan Vogelsong might have the edge for the final spot in the
Pirates rotation, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Rick Reed is battling Vogelsong and back trouble to remain a starter. Also
uber-prospects Sean Burnett and John Van Benschoten have
an outside chance, although both will likely be sent back to the
minors, where they can get more innings. The fifth starter in this
rotation will not provide much in terms of Fantasy production.
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