Draft Preview: Draft strategies
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Remember when you were a kid watching G.I. Joe cartoons and the characters would do a PSA about what to do if your house was on fire? "Always test the door first, if it's hot, find another exit." Then they would always end the spot with, "And knowing is half the battle."
Imagine Falcon (Don Johnson's voice) getting you prepared for your Fantasy Baseball draft: "If there's a run on closers, don't panic. Look to another position that has been ignored, then ... stop, drop and roll."
OK, maybe that wouldn't quite play out the same, but preparing a good strategy for your draft means being well-read and knowing what you should look for.
Early round opportunities
Many point to the first round as the single most important pick you can make in your draft. While it is true you could ruin your draft with a bad selection, you can't always save a bad draft with a great first pick, so don't overthink this one. Go with the player that can help you in the most categories, without hurting you too much in others. Usually, five-category studs like Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano are scattered among the top picks, but as the round comes to a close, you'll probably have to choose between speed (Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki), power (Todd Helton, Miguel Tejada) or pitching (Randy Johnson, Johan Santana ). While these two pitchers are top flight, realize they can only help you in four categories, rather than a five-category outfielder.
Something to remember with a late first-rounder is you'll likely have the choice of two of your targeted players, since your second-rounder wraps around quickly. With that in mind, you might want to consider position depth. Of the above-mentioned players to choose from late in the first, two were outfielders, one first baseman and one shortstop to go with two pitchers. Knowing that the shortstop position is shallower than the other positions, Tejada would be the player of choice. You have a good shot at getting one of the other players on the comeback, or at least the top option of the next tier.
The second and third rounds of most drafts are filled with either players that have minor flaws (Hank Blalock), superstars on the rebound (Mark Prior) or young players expected by all to explode ( Miguel Cabrera).
Throwing out the first pitch
Starting pitching is important in Fantasy because it plays such a huge part in your final standings since they account for most of the volume in four of the five pitching categories (W, K's, ERA and WHIP). And since there are only nine pitchers on your team, it would seem to indicate that getting a handful of great ones would be smart. Unfortunately, you would set yourself back in hitters and find it tough to recover.
Do your best to grab an ace in the first five rounds to build your staff around. That pitcher should have a good chance at leading your team in wins and strikeouts. Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Curt Schilling and Carlos Zambrano are all acceptable picks at this stage. Instead of loading up on multiple guys here, you'll see that you can get quality starters in the later rounds as well, making it possible for you to work on other positions here.
Closers are a different animal altogether. There are essentially only 30 players in the league that are expected to finish games, yet they alone affect an entire pitching category. So acquiring multiple closers is paramount if you want a shot at a respectable total of saves. But since this is the most unstable position in Fantasy, it is important not to invest too much on high-end players here.
Do your best in the first few rounds to get a Francisco Cordero, Eric Gagne, Brad Lidge or Mariano Rivera,, but don't reach on guys like Octavio Dotel at this point just for the sake of getting a closer.
When all else fails, don't punt
Some people punt saves altogether, meaning they don't mind coming in last at the position in order to use the high picks they would use on closers to instead pick up more hitting help or another solid starting pitcher. While this strategy can work, it is not recommended since everything has to fall into place for your other categories to win a championship -- meaning no big injuries, no disappointing seasons and your sleepers have to provide quality stats.
After five or six rounds, you should have your ace, your top closer and three or four solid hitters, preferably a leader or two at their position in certain categories.
Mid-round machinations
In the middle of the draft (Rounds 6 through 14), you should consider filling in spots like the corners of your infield and at least one of the top catchers available. Third base is exceptionally deep this season, so acquiring one that can jack out 30 homers in the ninth or 10th round is a strong possibility.
Punting a position
Catcher is a tough position to fill since 24 Fantasy starters have to be pulled from only 30 major-league starters. One strategy is to punt the position altogether, meaning wait on both of your catchers until very late in the draft. The thinking is the 10th-rated catcher isn't too much better than the 15th-rated backstop, so picking up another good player at a different position could make your team stronger in the long run. And if you pick your No. 2 catcher relatively soon after, then you will be stronger than a few teams at that roster spot at least.
Backward drafting
Another strong strategy to consider can be termed "backward drafting" since you work toward filling your roster from the back forward. This is a tricky strategy since a lot of things have to happen in order for it to be successful.
First, target a number of players you believe you will be able to pick up in the final rounds of a draft (or for $1 in an auction league). This could be a mix of starting pitchers (Kelvim Escobar, Brian Lawrence, Brandon Webb), setup men (Brendan Donnelly, Damaso Marte, Akinori Otsuka), middle infielders (Angel Berroa, Julio Lugo, Jose Valentin), corner infielders (Keith Ginter, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Sweeney) and outfielders (Kevin Mench, Reggie Sanders, Nick Swisher).
Once you have a group of players targeted that might drop that far, you can better assess which positions you will want to select early.
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| Derrek Lee's ability to hit the long ball, as well as steal bases, makes him more valuable. (Getty Images) |
With that conclusion, you can deduce hitters with speed like Chone Figgins, Ryan Freel and Derrek Lee should be picked up earlier than normal, since you can get help for other categories late.
Injury risks
Understand there are a few players that drop in value every season because of their injury history. Ken Griffey Jr. is a great example of this. The future Hall of Fameer still has 45-homer talent, but a fragile body keeps getting him drafted in the teens rather than the early rounds.
Jose Reyes has hurt owners enough over the past two seasons almost as much as he has hurt himself. His draft value has dipped due to health concerns, but his 50-plus stolen-base potential makes him an injury risk worth taking.
When considering an injury-prone player, think if you can fill his position easily in-season if (and when) he goes down. In Griffey's case, owners that picked him up in the middle rounds still got 20 homers out of him when he was healthy (83 games) which was only bettered by 47 outfielders over the full 2004 season. If Junior stayed healthy all season -- yeah, I know, that's a big "if" -- only five outfielders would have had more than his extrapolated 40 homers.
One of the easiest positions to fill in-season is outfield, so when Griffey bowed out last year at different points, an owner was probably able to fill his spot with an outfielder able to knock out at least 10-15 homers in half a season. That's 30-35 home runs from one of your outfield spots.
Reyes plays a position that isn't deep at the top (second base), but if you don't get one of the best, you can fill in with Reyes in the middle rounds, get what you can from him until he goes down, then replace him with a decent in-season pickup like Aaron Miles or Mark Bellhorn.
Lesson learned? Don't worry about picking an injury-prone player in the middle rounds. This is something very different from Fantasy Football, where a key injury can cost you your season. With so many players, you can fill injury time rather easily.
Insurance
Another common practice in Fantasy Football is to pick your top running backs' NFL backup as insurance in case they go down with injury. While not as common, Fantasy Baseball owners can also back up some of their selections.
Since Griffey has a wing named after him at the local hospital, and other Reds outfielders are almost as injury-prone, grabbing Wily Mo Pena in the middle- to late-rounds is a good idea. He showed last season he is supremely talented and the Reds will get him in the lineup somewhere.
Another possibility, more for AL-only owners, is Matt LeCroy in Minnesota. If Lew Ford, Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau get injured, LeCroy will step right into the lineup and excel.
Yhency Brazoban, Donnelly and Otsuka are great options for insurance against losing one of your closers. Each is only an injury away from being a top-20 option in saves.
Wrapping it up
Finally, your best strategy is being well prepared, well read and well rested. Now that you know some of these strategies you should be ahead of the game -- after all, knowing is half the battle.
