Goodbye April, Hello May

Every season, there is a group of hitters that post significantly better (or worse) numbers in the first month than they do for the remainder of the season. It's always nice to know who the quick starters are, but it's more useful to you if you know who is off to a hot start despite usually being slow out of the gate.

If you can correctly assess which players are playing above their heads, with a possible decline in their future, you can make moves to greatly improve your team while not giving up too much in return. On the other hand, if you can also figure out which players will remain at this level, then you'll know which players not to trade away.

Below are the top 25 hitters that show the greatest Fantasy improvement for the first month of this season compared to how they've performed in the first month of the past three seasons.

Next week, we'll discuss which pitchers are pitching below or above their normal level of play.

Playing above their heads

The following stats were used to determine very basic Head-to-Head values using one point for a hit, RBI and a run scored, while a homer gets four points and a steal gets two. Numbers for the 3-year averages were rounded to the nearest whole number.

Only the players that played in at least 10 games in each of the past three Aprils were used in this analysis. So players like Derek Jeter, who missed all but one game in April of 2003 with a dislocated shoulder, were not included.

Status quo: The group of players below are playing at the level they should be, but various reasons have placed them on this list. Don't trade these players because you expect them to decline.

Morgan Ensberg represents a group of players on this list mostly because their current marks are just an extension of their breakout 2005 season. In April of last season, Ensberg hit .246 with only two homers and seven RBI. It was May when his breakout took hold. He hit eight homers and knocked in 19 RBI for the month -- and that was his third-best month of the season.

David Ortiz was a slow starter for the past two years, but his numbers were affected more by the fact that he hit only .212 with one homer and six RBI in April of '03, his first year in Boston and eventual breakout season.

Jason Giambi falls in this category as well, since he's returning from "injury" problems.

Eric Chavez is finally off to a strong start to the season. (Getty Images)

Eric Chavez was famous for his slow starts. His .301-9-20 hitting line in April was .100 hitting points, seven homers and 11 RBI better than what he put up last season. Final numbers around .278-35-110 aren't unreasonable to expect from him at this point, which means we project him to hit around .273-26-90 for the remainder of the year -- which is very solid.

Vernon Wells turned 27 last December (Emack had his own private birthday party for him). A stacked Toronto lineup brought in through free agency has helped his numbers get to where they are currently at -- and where we think they'll stay.

Other players we expect to continue to post fantastic stats: Albert Pujols, Travis Hafner, Paul Konerko, Miguel Tejada and Carlos Delgado.

Time to dangle to your owners: The group of players below are playing well above the level they should be, so you might want to put them on the block to see what kind of players you can get back in trade.

Jim Thome is off to an incredible start, notable for a couple reasons. First, it proves that his back appears healthy -- for now. And secondly, Thome was known for his poor starts to the season entering this year. His horrible '05 season shadowed that fact, as did the broken finger that saddled him early in '04. For his career, April is his worst month overall, with a .273 average, along with only 58 homers in 279 games, including this year's stats. His 64-homer pace is not going to happen. A slugger with back problems usually remains one. Since you likely drafted him in the middle rounds of your draft, you can likely trade him now for serious speed or a possible a 1B/SP combo in a 2-for-1 deal, like Nick Johnson and Cliff Lee.

Orlando Cabrera will come back to earth soon. He's a solid shortstop, but to expect a .300 batting average with anything close to 80 RBI at season's end would be wishful thinking. He already has half the number of homers he hit all of last season and he averaged hitting .260 over the previous two years. His recent renaissance might be in part due to pressure from minor league phenom Brandon Wood, who is hitting .277 with six homers and 18 RBI at Double-A Arkansas.

Ty Wigginton will likely eclipse his totals from last year within the next week. Unfortunately, it's doubtful anyone else in your league will bite on a trade for him. Once the Devil Rays get completely healthy, he could find himself in the back of the lineup again, scratching for starts at any position.

Kevin Mench has been atop our breakout list for two seasons now and it appears he's fulfilling that promise. He's an aggressive swinger with a ton of power, but Head-to-Head owners will want to start thinking about moving him before his strikeouts begin to overrun his hits again. Now's the time to move him for a strong arm or super speed, since he's coming off a stretch in which he hit a homer in seven straight games.

Other players of note: Johnny Damon started last year hitting .365 after April, but in 2003 and 2004, he struggled early on. His numbers through those years are too inconsistent to bank on, but if he was on any other offense than New York's or Boston's, I'd recommend moving him. He's going to continue to hit well at the top of this order. ... Every year, there's a veteran catcher that emerges early in the season with some excellent Fantasy stats. This season, it's Toby Hall, who is hitting .357. He hit .287 last year, around where he should end up this season, so he has some bad months ahead of him. ... Hank Blalock is hitting .321 against left-handers, which is 100 points higher than his lifetime batting average against southpaws entering this season. He is second only to Michael Young on the team in batting average. If he has solved lefties, which we think he has, then he should be in line for a .295-30-115 season.

Not quite up to par

When analyzing the stats of players we've deemed as disappointments, players that were injured for a good portion of this month (like Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo) were not included. The following is a list of 25 hitters that show the greatest Fantasy decline over the first month of this season compared to how they've performed in April for the past three seasons.

Players you should be worried about: The following players are probably in for a very long season, possibly as bad as the stats they've already put up.

Marcus Giles usually puts up his best numbers early in the season, but now that the Braves have him leading off, rather than batting second now that Rafael Furcal is in Los Angeles, he's having trouble getting on base.

Eric Hinske is the only person north of the border that cringes every time Alex Rios does something else great. Hinske's playing time will continue to dwindle in direct correlation to Rios' breakout year.

Someone to make a move on: Jeff Kent has been battling a triceps injury and a concussion, as a result of an April beaning. This is a player you might want to target, despite his age and home address, he's still a talented hitter at a thin position that is now missing Jorge Cantu, Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler and even Ray Durham. You might be able to get him for an overachieving outfielder, like Mench.

I received so many responses to last week's "Comparing Apples to Oranges" column, that we'll post them as an entire piece later this month. Thanks for your input and I expect you'll have even more after you read what your fellow Fantasy readers came up with. We'll also post everyone's "about to go cold" players in next week's column.