Watch rookie arms, or else you'll pitch a fit

Quick, talk the owner of Cole Hamels (15-day DL, shoulder) in your league off the ledge. Sit him down and explain to him: Shtuff like this happens all the time; rookie pitchers are always overhyped, untested and prone to breakdown because they have never experienced big league pressure and workload.

Heck, while you're at it, warn the owner of smoking-hot rookie Justin Verlander of the Hamels cautionary tale. Tell him to deal him right now before he hits the 130-inning threshold -- something Verlander has not done in his brief two-year professional career ... er, better stated, ever.

Justin Verlander (No. 2 overall) has been the ace of the storied 2004 pitching class ... so far. (Getty Images)

Do all this as a trusty friend. Then, as a sefishly competitive league-mate, go pick up Jered Weaver (Angels) or Jeremy Sowers (Indians) immediately. They got next.

We have long maintained in this space: A well-hyped rookie pitching phenom is a great Fantasy player ... three years from now. (Were you listening Mr. Felix Hernandez and Zach Duke owner?)

We don't deviate from that third-year starter axiom, but we do offer a disclaimer: Buy them low, if you can, and then sell them high.

Get what was presented to this recent e-mailer:

• Brian Fleet: I have Justin Verlander and Francisco Liriano. Two young studs in a keeper league. (We can only keep two players each year, and I have to keep David Ortiz.) A guy has offered me Johan Santana for these two young SPs. What should I do? My two SPs have better stats so far. Please help.
• Emack's response: In a two-player keeper league, you will be much better with Ortiz and Santana than anyone in the league. Both are annual first-rounders. Verlander and Liriano could be early rounders in Year 3 as third-year starting pitchers, but you can find the next Verlander and Liriano. Take the stud in Santana. This is a perfect example of buying low (stashing Verlander/Liriano) and selling high (Santana). Wouldn't have been able to do it better ourselves. Great work.

The reader just turned two mid-to-late Draft Day picks into a rock-solid first-rounder. This won't be easy for everyone, but it will be impossible to do if you don't grab Weaver, Sowers or Chad Billingsley (Dodgers) right away.

Don't believe us? Forget talking that person off the ledge, tell them you want to make an offer for Hamels now.

Wait, don't do that. They might actually jump at the thought of this ... off the ledge that is.

Because he knows he won't get the appropriate value -- and nowhere near what he would have gotten just a few days ago -- before Hamels heard that pop during long toss, strained his shoulder and got firmly stapled with the red tag: "injury-prone." And to think we thought Hamels might have turned the corner on that. Silly us.

Maybe three years from now.

Hamels has not pitched past 101 professional innings in a season (2003). He logged just 16 innings in 2004, 35 in 2005 and 54 2/3 combined in 2006 between high Class A, Triple-A and the majors. No wonder his arm screamed at him Tuesday night before his third big league start.

You see, pitching -- in addition to being more art than skill in the bigs -- is a function of habit and arm conditioning. Most human limbs simply won't allow you suddenly throw 95 mph for 200-plus high-pressure big league innings without having at least come close to doing so in low-pressure minor league games.

Which is why we broach heresy by saying you should deal Verlander (6-3, 2.70 ERA) for another ace right after his dominance extends past 100 innings this season.

In his first pro season in 2005, Verlander threw 130 innings and then Hamels'd his shoulder (aka strained). That came after throwing 113, 116 1/3 and then 105 2/3 innings as a Division I college pitcher at Old Dominion (2002-04).

Clearly, his arm was prepared to go about 130 innings before he went into "Operation: Shutdown." Hamels' threshold was much lower because of his lack of stretching out.

Explaining this another way: To prepare for running 26 miles you don't jog a 5K and then pronounce fit for the Boston marathon. You gradually build yourself up, or else, come mile-marker 10, you'd rather be the one dropping off that aforementioned ledge.

There are exceptions to every rule. Verlander could be it. But you're best off letting someone else take that risk.

So, how can this information help you now -- after the fact on Hamels or if you don't own Verlander -- if you've finally brought yourself to buy into it?

See Jered Weaver's and Sowers' latest outings this week in Triple-A -- after you blindly pick them up to stash them away, of course.

Weaver, currently owned in 16 percent of CBS SportsLine.com's Fantasy leagues, pitched a complete-game shutout, striking out eight, walking none and improving to 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 66 Ks in 57 innings. Sowers, owned in 8 percent of leagues (and rising), doesn't want to be outdone, going eight shutout innings and improving to 6-1 with a microscopic 0.94 ERA.

Both lightning-hot talents were drafted right behind Verlander (second overall) in first round the famed pitcher's draft in 2004. Sowers (Vanderbilt) went sixth overall, while "signability" dropped the bloodlined brother of Jeff to 12th overall.

The true question is: Where is the health of their arms? Clearly, they've been stretched out -- nine and eight innings, respectively -- but how long can they last once they're called up?

Sowers, a lefty, has "trained" the most miles on his arm of the 2004 draftees. The Vandy product went 101, 115 and then 122 2/3 innings in college (2002-04) and then combined for 159 1/3 innings between high Class A, Double- and Triple-A in his first full pro season in 2005.

Also, he doesn't throw quite as hard as Hamels, Verlander or Weaver, relying more on deception and making him perhaps less prone to wear down. We adore the term "pitchability" in young pitchers -- a pitcher who is not merely a thrower (more art than skill, remember?) -- and Sowers has that, too.

So, Sowers' threshold is 160-180 innings this season -- likely 100 more than his current 67 innings.

Weaver, meanwhile, went 92, 133 1/3 and 144 innings at Long Beach State (2002-04). He then pitched 76 innings between high Class A and Double-A in his first pro season in 2005. Weaver, who has logged 57 innings already in Triple-A, probably has another good 100 in him.

This analysis all begs the question: Why would any team call a top prospect up, if they will struggle or breakdown at an 150-inning threshold?

Well, desperate teams call up arms as needed. The Phillies were needy for Hamels. Now, the Indians and Angels are struggling and on the brink, too, at this point.

For the Indians, they are just slower than the Twins (with Liriano and Boof Bonser) in making a decision on Jason Johnson (2-4, 6.52). Johnson could be yanked from the rotation as early as next week as the Indians have had one of the worst staffs in the AL. Only the Devil Rays, Twins and Royals have been worse than their 4.90 ERA, and that's after C.C. Sabathia's gem Wednesday.

The Angels, minus Bartolo Colon (shoulder), have used spot-starting relievers Hector Carrasco and Kevin Gregg, who pitches Friday and was actually pretty solid last time out. Colon is on his way back by mid-June, but Weaver's most recent start could be tempting to use him before then.

So, if you're in a yearly league: Stash Sowers and/or Weaver away now. Water them, watch them grow, get called up, thrive ... then sell them off before they hit 150 innings.

Just be careful spending for them right now. It's slippery out on that ledge.

(Why can't there just be some hitter call-ups to jump on right now?)

Rookie watch

Here are the top rookies in Fantasy to date (stats through May 24):

On the verge

Here are some recently hot minor-leaguers worth tracking (stats through Wednesday, May 24):

Baby talk

Steve: I am pretty set at shortstop with Miguel Tejada. I have Troy Tulowitzki and B.J. Upton, along with J.J. Hardy as my top prospects. I want to deal one of them for a third baseman, who would you deal?

Emack: Tulowitzki looks like he could replace mightily struggling Clint Barmes as early as this year, if not in the next month. Hang on to him. Upton is still inflicted with Sax-Knoblauch disease, while Hardy is on the DL and his Lou Gehrig (replacement), Bill Hall, is proving to be a valuable bat in the Brewers' lineup. Long term we rank them: Upton, Tulowitzki and then Hardy. This year, we rank them: Hardy, Tulowitzki and Upton. Find someone who wants Hardy's 2006 potential first and then resort to Upton if you need to make a bigger move. With Tejada, you really won't need any of those prospects for a few years, so you can deal whomever gets you the best return.

M. Mannen, Forest Grove, Ore.: I currently have Scott Kazmir, Francisco Loriano, Brad Penny, Tom Glavine and Barry Zito as my starters with John Patterson and Cole Hamels on the DL. Freddy Garcia is available, should I drop Hamels or Patterson to make this move?

Emack: Garcia is a red-hot 15-plus game-winning veteran who deserves to be owned over Hamels at this point. It looks like you're in a small league, perhaps try to turn Patterson and Hamels into a hitter first, though, if you can.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball prospect and rookie questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.