Outlining the top NL Central prospects
By Eric Mack | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow EricFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
We continue our division-by-division look at baseball's top prospects with the NL Central, the only division in baseball that can bury you six teams under. It's a division that is not only prospect-laden but also one that is promising opportunity early because of the amount of small-market teams that might look to midseason help in what could be a wide-open race in 2007.
St. Louis Cardinals
Top pitcher: RH Blake Hawksworth, ETA mid-2007
The 23-year-old was once regarded as a better prospect than Adam Wainwright. And that's telling because Wainwright, who lost his rookie eligibility in the Cards bullpen this season, might even be a Cardinals starter in 2007 as promising as Anthony Reyes. The Cardinals will have a remade staff next year, so Hawksworth will have to bide his time in Triple-A to open the season. He could make a midseason impact in Fantasy leagues, especially since any promising young pitcher who has an Albert Pujols-led offense supporting him is intriguing. Hawksworth was a little overlooked heading into 2006 because of shoulder surgery, but he proved healthy and dominant. He went a combined 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA through 163 1/3 innings between high Class A and Double-A. He won't blow you away, but he walked just 50 and allowed a .247 batting-average against. He looks like the next Wainwright, so he might similarly debut as a middle reliever at first. That's not a bad thing, because Wainwright will be a nice sleeper as a starter having had a year of big-league experience under his belt.
Honorable mention: RH Chris Lambert, RH Mark McCormick, RH Stuart Pomeranz, RH Mike Parisi, LH Jaime Garcia, RH Adam Ottavino, RH Blake King, RH Tyler Herron, LH Eric Haberer
Top hitter: OF Colby Rasmus, ETA 2008
Perhaps because he was the pitching coach's son and a little older for his levels, Chris Duncan was an extremely underrated prospect in a so-so Cardinals system. Duncan loses his rookie eligibility, but the Cards have a primo outfielder to follow through the system in Rasmus. The five-tool prospect, according to Baseball America, hit a combined .288 with 16 homers, 85 RBI, 71 runs and 28 steals (36 attempts) and posted a solid .470 SLUG and .364 OBP in Class A. At 20, he will need time back in high Class A, but the Cardinals are not shy about giving kids a chance. If he continues to mature as expected, you'll see him in the big leagues before the end of 2007. He looks like a rare blue chipper for a Cardinals organization that has been lacking position-player prospects.
Honorable mention: SS Tyler Greene, 3B Cody Haerther, OF Nick Stavinoha, C Bryan Anderson, 1B Mark Hamilton, OF Jon Jay, OF Daryl Jones, 1B Mike Ferris OF Jon Edwards, OF Shane Robinson, SS Brendan Ryan, 3B Travis Hanson, 3B Randy Roth
Houston Astros
Top pitcher: RH Jason Hirsh, ETA now
Hirsh wasn't necessarily trusted by the desperate Astros down the stretch, which is bad news perhaps, but it did keep him rookie-eligible. Hirsh leads a deep and impressive band of Astros pitching prospects, which is a good thing because Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens are free agents this winter. Hirsh is all but certain to be a member of the Astros' rotation, making him a solid sleeper in all Fantasy leagues for 2007. He's much better than he showed in the big leagues this year and is someone we might project to get 12 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA through 175 innings in his first full season. He won't whiff a batter an inning until he gets his stuff in complete command, but he is a big man (6-feet-8, 250 pounds) who projects to be an innings-eating ace long term.
Honorable mention: LH Troy Patton, RH Jimmy Barthmaier, RH Felipe Paulino, RH Matt Albers, RH Chad Reineke, RH Brian Bogusevic, RH Juan Gutierrez, RH Chance Douglass, RH Ryan Mitchell, RH Jared Gothreaux, LH Mark McLemore, LH Chris Salamida, LH Sergio Sevrino
Top hitter: OF Hunter Pence, ETA mid-2007
Armed with one of the coolest baseball card names, Pence's numbers are now just as intriguing. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound man-beast put it together in Double-A in 2006, going .283-28-95-97-17 (.533 SLUG and .357 OBP). Once regarded as more stat-hog than prospect, it's hard to ignore Pence's big-league potential now. The Astros could get an extended look at him next spring, but he's bound to start the season in Triple-A. The Astros have had problems finding full-time corner outfield solutions worth sticking with in recent years -- save for 1B/OF Lance Berkman. -- so Pence should get a look in midseason. He showed well in the Futures Games this past July, so consider him one of the top power prospects to open in the minors next spring.
Honorable mention: OF Eli Iorg, C J.R. Towles, C Louis Santangelo, OF Josh Flores, OF Josh Anderson, 3B Koby Clemens, OF Jordan Parraz, C Max Sapp
Cincinnati Reds
Top pitcher: RH Homer Bailey, mid-2007
|
|
| Homer Bailey might be the best pitching prospect in baseball. (Getty Images) |
Honorable mention: LH Travis Wood, RH Johnny Cueto, LH LH Tyler Pelland, RH Sam LeCure, LH Phil Dumatrait, RH Rafael Gonzalez, RH Terrell Young
Top hitter: OF Jay Bruce, ETA mid-2008
The No. 1 spot here was a tough call. 1B Joey Votto has a mean stick (.319-22-77-85-24 with a .547 SLUG and a .408 OBP in 508 Double-A at-bats) and just Scott Hatteberg blocking him from swinging away in Cincy's bandbox ballpark. But we see the younger phenom Bruce as having a higher ceiling for Fantasy leagues. Votto was a 23-year-old first baseman in Double-A, while Bruce was a teenager who went .291-16-81-69-19 (.516 SLUG and .355 OBP) in low Class A. Votto is certain to impact Fantasy leagues in 2007, but his position is tougher to become a star quickly. For example: Conor Jackson's numbers would have played better in Fantasy leagues as an outfielder than a first baseman. It's safe to say, after some lean years, the Reds organization is much more prepared to feed the big club for the foreseeable future.
Honorable mention: 1B Joey Votto, OF Drew Stubbs, SS Paul Janish, OF B.J. Szymanski, OF Chris Dickerson, OF Norris Hopper, SS Adam Rosales, OF Javon Moran, SS Chris Valiaka
Milwaukee Brewers
Top pitcher: Yovani Gallardo, ETA mid-2007
In our "On the Verge" section of our weekly Prospects Report, we listed the intriguing names to track in the minors this season. One name that was missing there this year and led to the most feedback via e-mail was that of Gallardo, 20. It's not that we didn't like him and his wicked Bugs Bunny numbers, we just didn't see the cost-conscious Brewers rushing him along. Like the Reds' Bailey (above), Gallardo will be too good to ignore in the middle of 2007 -- especially if the Brewers stay in contention in mid-summer, like we believe they will. The Mexican right-hander's numbers in identical amount of time as Bailey at Class A and Double-A (13 starts apiece) were jaw-droppingly similar, too: (11-5) with a 1.86 ERA, 188 strikeouts and a .192 batting-average against. Who are we kidding? His numbers are better than Bailey's. Consider him No. 1a among minor-league pitching prospects at this point, especially because he's missing bats at a rate that is Francisco Liriano-esque.
Honorable mention: RH Ben Hendrickson, RH Mark Rogers, RH Will Inman, LH Manny Parra, LH Zach Jackson, RH Dennis Sarfate,
Top hitter: 3B Ryan Braun, ETA mid-2007
The Brewers' third baseman of the near was selected fifth overall in the 2005 draft, just three picks after likely No. 1 prospect next spring, Alex Gordon, and one spot after NL Rookie of the Year candidate Ryan Zimmerman. And those are just the early '05 No. 1s that play Braun's position. (An aside: You are allowed to misspell his name Brawn; that suits him.) The well-built, 6-foot, 200-pound University of Miami product went a combined .289-22-77-76-26 (.514 SLUG and .357 OBP) in high Class A and Double-A, his first full professional season. If Gordon is the next David Wright, then Braun has to be considered one, too. Looking on a stat sheet with the name covered up, it's hard to tell them apart. Gordon, Wright, Braun and Zimmerman (perhaps in that order) will eventually be the future elite ranking of the hot corner position in Fantasy (once A-Rod moves or retires, we suppose). As for when the 23-year-old Braun arrives, there's a slight chance the Brewers consider him next spring, but if not, he gets the call from Triple-A at some point in 2007. You will want him on your roster in any Fantasy league the day of his official debut. Assuming the Royals stay Devil Rays-like stubborn on calling up Gordon, Braun is the next odds-on favorite to make the biggest call-up splash among position players in Fantasy.
Honorable mention: 3B Matt Gamel, OF Tony Gwynn Jr., SS Alcides Escobar, OF Drew Anderson, C Angel Salome, OF Lorenzo Cain, 2B Hernan Iribarren, 1B Brad Nelson, UTL Vinny Rottino, OF Cole Gillespie, OF Stephen Chapman, SS Brent Brewer
Pittsburgh Pirates
Top pitcher: RH Todd Redmond, ETA mid-2008
It will be a challenge for a Pirates pitching prospect to make a big splash in 2007, because of their expected so-so supporting cast and the fact they already have a gaggle of young arms growing under fire in the big leagues, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ian Snell. Also, Tom Gorzelanny lost his rookie status this season and will enter 2007 as a member of the Pirates' rotation as well. This is easy to say -- and a phrase tossed around too often -- but the 21-year-old Redmond might be the best of the bunch. The lean 6-foot-3, 185-pounder went 13-6 with a 2.75 ERA, 148 Ks and a .227 batting-average against in low Class A this season. He's still raw and has a number of steps to take, but the resume is pristine right now, especially when you consider the number of innings his young arm has already been conditioned for in a single season. A Pirates pitching prospect is better to have say three years from now when they're ready to truly compete, but Redmond is certainly one worth watching, unlike their slew of injury-riddled former No. 1 picks.
Honorable mention: RH John Van Benschoten, RH Bryan Bullington, RH Jared Hughes, LH Shane Youman
Top hitter: OF Andrew McCutchen, ETA late 2007
McCutchen, like Redmond, is extremely young, but that's the way it is with the top prospects for the Pirates, who have been ushering most of their talent to the big leagues recently. McCutchen was a teenager in Double-A this season and you might know how prospect trackers love that kind of age-level ratio. The best part about McCutchen's numbers is they actually improved when he moved up a step. Combined in high Class A and Double-A he went .294-17-74-89-23 (.450 SLUG and .359 OBP). He has bit of a Lastings Milledge-look to him, physically and statistically, meaning he could arrive quickly but take time to really hit his stride. Consider him a prospect to have in case everything unfolds for him in 2007 after he opens the season in Double-A. By the way, all-or-nothing powerhouse first baseman Brad Eldred (wrist) remains on track for a 2007 return, but he had exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2005.
Honorable mention: C Neil Walker, SS Brett Lillibridge, OF Brad Corley, OF Adam Boeve, SS Brian Bixler, UTL Craig Stansberry, OF Rajai Davis, 1B Steven Pearce, OF Vic Buttler, 2B Shelby Ford
Chicago Cubs
Top pitcher: LH Donald Veal, ETA late 2007
The Cubs' rotation was a revolving door this year and it should continue to go that way in the coming years. The good news is they have depth to burn in quality pitching prospects. It's not Marlins-'06 quality, but intriguing nonetheless. It will be interesting to see if recently canned Joe Girardi gets the Cubs' job, because he certainly has learned in one season as a manager how to cultivate pitching prospects and help them succeed quickly in the big leagues. Veal is the best of the Cubs' next wave, going 11-5 with a 2.16 ERA, 174 Ks and a .174 batting-average against combined in Class A. Yes, we see the numbers similarity to Bailey and Gallardo above, but we like Veal's projectability a tick less because he's older and yet a level lower. He could open the season in Double-A and perhaps be a mid-to-late year option for (Girardi's?) Cubs. Own him in all long-term keeper leagues.
Honorable mention: RH Sean Gallagher, LH Mark Pawelek, RH Jae Kuk Ryu, RH Adam Harben, WR/RHP Jeff Samardzija, LH Ryan O'Malley,
Top hitter: OF Felix Pie, ETA mid-2007
Felix Pie (pee-ay) lost his some of his mojo in 2006 and will have to go back to Triple-A to try to recapture it. Yes, a 21-year-old going .283-15-57-78-17 (.451 SLUG and .351 OBP) in Triple-A is not too shabby, but this pales in comparison to the expectations. They might have been too high, especially when the "next Sammy Sosa" cliché was being tossed on him. Right now the only resemblance to Sosa is his Dominican heritage, his poor strikeout-to-walk rate (126-46) and poor steals percentage (17-for-28). His tools still rate highly, though, making him a solid long-term keeper prospect.
Honorable mention: 3B Scott Moore, 2B Eric Patterson, C Jacob Fox, OF Buck Coats, OF Ryan Harvey, 1B Brandon Sing, 1B Brian Dopirak, OF Tyler Colvin, 2B Mike Fontenot
You have an NL West prospect on your radar and want to hear about him next week? Pass his name on. Also, you can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to Emack at DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: NL West prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
