We continue our division-by-division look at baseball's top prospects
with the NL Central, the only division in baseball that can bury you six
teams under. It's a division that is not only prospect-laden but also
one that is promising opportunity early because of the amount of
small-market teams that might look to midseason help in what could be a
wide-open race in 2007.
St. Louis Cardinals
Top pitcher: RH Blake Hawksworth, ETA mid-2007
The 23-year-old was once regarded as a better prospect than Adam
Wainwright. And that's telling because Wainwright, who lost his
rookie eligibility in the Cards bullpen this season, might even be a
Cardinals starter in 2007 as promising as Anthony Reyes. The
Cardinals will have a remade staff next year, so Hawksworth will have to
bide his time in Triple-A to open the season. He could make a midseason
impact in Fantasy leagues, especially since any promising young pitcher
who has an Albert Pujols-led offense supporting him is
intriguing. Hawksworth was a little overlooked heading into 2006 because
of shoulder surgery, but he proved healthy and dominant. He went a
combined 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA through 163 1/3 innings between high Class
A and Double-A. He won't blow you away, but he walked just 50 and
allowed a .247 batting-average against. He looks like the next
Wainwright, so he might similarly debut as a middle reliever at first.
That's not a bad thing, because Wainwright will be a nice sleeper as a
starter having had a year of big-league experience under his belt.
Honorable mention: RH Chris Lambert, RH Mark McCormick,
RH Stuart Pomeranz, RH Mike Parisi, LH Jaime Garcia, RH
Adam Ottavino, RH Blake King, RH Tyler Herron, LH Eric
Haberer
Top hitter: OF Colby Rasmus, ETA 2008
Perhaps because he was the pitching coach's son and a little older for
his levels, Chris Duncan was an extremely underrated prospect in
a so-so Cardinals system. Duncan loses his rookie eligibility, but the
Cards have a primo outfielder to follow through the system in Rasmus.
The five-tool prospect, according to Baseball America, hit a
combined .288 with 16 homers, 85 RBI, 71 runs and 28 steals (36
attempts) and posted a solid .470 SLUG and .364 OBP in Class A. At 20,
he will need time back in high Class A, but the Cardinals are not shy
about giving kids a chance. If he continues to mature as expected,
you'll see him in the big leagues before the end of 2007. He looks like
a rare blue chipper for a Cardinals organization that has been lacking
position-player prospects.
Honorable mention: SS Tyler Greene, 3B Cody Haerther,
OF Nick Stavinoha, C Bryan Anderson, 1B Mark Hamilton,
OF Jon Jay, OF Daryl Jones, 1B Mike Ferris OF
Jon Edwards, OF Shane Robinson, SS Brendan Ryan, 3B
Travis Hanson, 3B Randy Roth
Houston Astros
Top pitcher: RH Jason Hirsh, ETA now
Hirsh wasn't necessarily trusted by the desperate Astros down the
stretch, which is bad news perhaps, but it did keep him rookie-eligible.
Hirsh leads a deep and impressive band of Astros pitching prospects,
which is a good thing because Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens
are free agents this winter. Hirsh is all but certain to be a member of the
Astros' rotation, making him a solid sleeper in all Fantasy leagues for
2007. He's much better than he showed in the big leagues this year and
is someone we might project to get 12 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA through
175 innings in his first full season. He won't whiff a batter an inning
until he gets his stuff in complete command, but he is a big man
(6-feet-8, 250 pounds) who projects to be an innings-eating ace long
term.
Honorable mention: LH Troy Patton, RH Jimmy Barthmaier,
RH Felipe Paulino, RH Matt Albers, RH Chad Reineke, RH
Brian Bogusevic, RH Juan Gutierrez, RH Chance Douglass, RH
Ryan Mitchell, RH Jared Gothreaux, LH Mark McLemore, LH
Chris Salamida, LH Sergio Sevrino
Top hitter: OF Hunter Pence, ETA mid-2007
Armed with one of the coolest baseball card names, Pence's numbers are
now just as intriguing. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound man-beast put it
together in Double-A in 2006, going .283-28-95-97-17 (.533 SLUG and .357
OBP). Once regarded as more stat-hog than prospect, it's hard to ignore
Pence's big-league potential now. The Astros could get an extended look
at him next spring, but he's bound to start the season in Triple-A. The
Astros have had problems finding full-time corner outfield solutions
worth sticking with in recent years -- save for 1B/OF Lance Berkman.
-- so Pence should get a look in midseason. He showed well in the Futures
Games this past July, so consider him one of the top power prospects to
open in the minors next spring.
Honorable mention: OF Eli Iorg, C J.R. Towles, C
Louis Santangelo, OF Josh Flores, OF Josh Anderson, 3B
Koby Clemens, OF Jordan Parraz, C Max Sapp
Cincinnati Reds
Top pitcher: RH Homer Bailey, mid-2007
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Homer Bailey might be the best pitching prospect in baseball.
(Getty Images)
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There are a few names in the minor leagues that make this writer's mouse
twitch when checking his box scores. Bailey, 20, is certainly one of
them and perhaps the most impressive pitching prospect in the minor
leagues. Yours truly usually disregards pitching prospects -- this was
the toughest year ever to do that -- and Bailey can't be disregarded.
The problem is he's so young and promising the Reds will treat him with
kid gloves. Bailey was hardly hittable in 2006, going a combined (10-6)
with a 2.47 ERA, 156 Ks and a .198 batting-average against.
Intriguingly, his numbers got better as the competition did, a great
sign: 7-1, 1.59 ERA in 13 Double-A starts. Clearly, he's too good for
that level, even if his age suggests he should open there next year. We
have hyped Bailey as a potential sleeper down the stretch of 2006
because the Reds were starter-needy amid a pennant race, but he'll be
too dominant to ignore after next season kicks off. Consider Bailey the
No. 1 pitching prospect to have in all of baseball and all long-term
keeper leagues. He's also worth stashing in deeper yearly formats next
spring, depending how much of a look the Reds give him during camp.
Honorable mention: LH Travis Wood, RH Johnny Cueto,
LH LH Tyler Pelland, RH Sam LeCure, LH Phil Dumatrait,
RH Rafael Gonzalez, RH Terrell Young
Top hitter: OF Jay Bruce, ETA mid-2008
The No. 1 spot here was a tough call. 1B Joey Votto has a mean
stick (.319-22-77-85-24 with a .547 SLUG and a .408 OBP in 508 Double-A
at-bats) and just Scott Hatteberg blocking him from swinging away
in Cincy's bandbox ballpark. But we see the younger phenom Bruce as
having a higher ceiling for Fantasy leagues. Votto was a 23-year-old
first baseman in Double-A, while Bruce was a teenager who went
.291-16-81-69-19 (.516 SLUG and .355 OBP) in low Class A. Votto is
certain to impact Fantasy leagues in 2007, but his position is tougher
to become a star quickly. For example: Conor Jackson's numbers
would have played better in Fantasy leagues as an outfielder than a
first baseman. It's safe to say, after some lean years, the Reds
organization is much more prepared to feed the big club for the
foreseeable future.
Honorable mention: 1B Joey Votto, OF Drew Stubbs,
SS Paul Janish, OF B.J. Szymanski, OF Chris Dickerson,
OF Norris Hopper, SS Adam Rosales, OF Javon Moran, SS
Chris Valiaka
Milwaukee Brewers
Top pitcher: Yovani Gallardo, ETA mid-2007
In our "On the Verge" section of our weekly Prospects
Report, we listed the intriguing names to track in the minors this
season. One name that was missing there this year and led to the most
feedback via e-mail was that of Gallardo, 20. It's not that we didn't
like him and his wicked Bugs Bunny numbers, we just didn't see the
cost-conscious Brewers rushing him along. Like the Reds' Bailey (above),
Gallardo will be too good to ignore in the middle of 2007 -- especially
if the Brewers stay in contention in mid-summer, like we believe they
will. The Mexican right-hander's numbers in identical amount of time as
Bailey at Class A and Double-A (13 starts apiece) were jaw-droppingly
similar, too: (11-5) with a 1.86 ERA, 188 strikeouts and a .192
batting-average against. Who are we kidding? His numbers are better
than Bailey's. Consider him No. 1a among minor-league pitching prospects at
this point, especially because he's missing bats at a rate that is
Francisco Liriano-esque.
Honorable mention: RH Ben Hendrickson, RH Mark Rogers,
RH Will Inman, LH Manny Parra, LH Zach Jackson, RH
Dennis Sarfate,
Top hitter: 3B Ryan Braun, ETA mid-2007
The Brewers' third baseman of the near was selected fifth
overall in the 2005 draft, just three picks after likely No. 1 prospect
next spring, Alex Gordon, and one spot after NL Rookie of the
Year candidate Ryan Zimmerman. And those are just the early '05
No. 1s that play Braun's position. (An aside: You are allowed to
misspell his name Brawn; that suits him.) The well-built, 6-foot,
200-pound University of Miami product went a combined .289-22-77-76-26
(.514 SLUG and .357 OBP) in high Class A and Double-A, his first full
professional season. If Gordon is the next David Wright, then
Braun has to be considered one, too. Looking on a stat sheet with the
name covered up, it's hard to tell them apart. Gordon, Wright, Braun and
Zimmerman (perhaps in that order) will eventually be the future elite
ranking of the hot corner position in Fantasy (once A-Rod moves or
retires, we suppose). As for when the 23-year-old Braun arrives, there's
a slight chance the Brewers consider him next spring, but if not, he
gets the call from Triple-A at some point in 2007. You will want him on
your roster in any Fantasy league the day of his official debut.
Assuming the Royals stay Devil Rays-like stubborn on calling up Gordon,
Braun is the next odds-on favorite to make the biggest call-up splash
among position players in Fantasy.
Honorable mention: 3B Matt Gamel, OF Tony Gwynn Jr.,
SS Alcides Escobar, OF Drew Anderson, C Angel Salome,
OF Lorenzo Cain, 2B Hernan Iribarren, 1B Brad Nelson,
UTL Vinny Rottino, OF Cole Gillespie, OF Stephen
Chapman, SS Brent Brewer
Pittsburgh Pirates
Top pitcher: RH Todd Redmond, ETA mid-2008
It will be a challenge for a Pirates pitching prospect to make a big
splash in 2007, because of their expected so-so supporting cast and the
fact they already have a gaggle of young arms growing under fire in the
big leagues, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ian Snell. Also,
Tom Gorzelanny lost his rookie status this season and will enter 2007 as a
member of the Pirates' rotation as well. This is easy to say -- and a
phrase tossed around too often -- but the 21-year-old Redmond might be
the best of the bunch. The lean 6-foot-3, 185-pounder went 13-6 with a
2.75 ERA, 148 Ks and a .227 batting-average against in low Class A this
season. He's still raw and has a number of steps to take, but the resume
is pristine right now, especially when you consider the number of
innings his young arm has already been conditioned for in a single
season. A Pirates pitching prospect is better to have say three years
from now when they're ready to truly compete, but Redmond is certainly
one worth watching, unlike their slew of injury-riddled former No. 1
picks.
Honorable mention: RH John Van Benschoten, RH Bryan
Bullington, RH Jared Hughes, LH Shane Youman
Top hitter: OF Andrew McCutchen, ETA late 2007
McCutchen, like Redmond, is extremely young, but that's the way it is
with the top prospects for the Pirates, who have been ushering most of
their talent to the big leagues recently. McCutchen was a teenager in
Double-A this season and you might know how prospect trackers love that
kind of age-level ratio. The best part about McCutchen's numbers is they
actually improved when he moved up a step. Combined in high Class A and
Double-A he went .294-17-74-89-23 (.450 SLUG and .359 OBP). He has bit
of a Lastings Milledge-look to him, physically and statistically,
meaning he could arrive quickly but take time to really hit his stride.
Consider him a prospect to have in case everything unfolds for him in
2007 after he opens the season in Double-A. By the way, all-or-nothing
powerhouse first baseman Brad Eldred (wrist) remains on track for a 2007
return, but he had exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2005.
Honorable mention: C Neil Walker, SS Brett Lillibridge,
OF Brad Corley, OF Adam Boeve, SS Brian Bixler, UTL
Craig Stansberry, OF Rajai Davis, 1B Steven Pearce, OF
Vic Buttler, 2B Shelby Ford
Chicago Cubs
Top pitcher: LH Donald Veal, ETA late 2007
The Cubs' rotation was a revolving door this year and it should continue
to go that way in the coming years. The good news is they have depth to
burn in quality pitching prospects. It's not Marlins-'06 quality, but
intriguing nonetheless. It will be interesting to see if recently canned
Joe Girardi gets the Cubs' job, because he certainly has learned in one
season as a manager how to cultivate pitching prospects and help them
succeed quickly in the big leagues. Veal is the best of the Cubs' next
wave, going 11-5 with a 2.16 ERA, 174 Ks and a .174 batting-average
against combined in Class A. Yes, we see the numbers similarity to
Bailey and Gallardo above, but we like Veal's projectability a tick less
because he's older and yet a level lower. He could open the season in
Double-A and perhaps be a mid-to-late year option for (Girardi's?) Cubs.
Own him in all long-term keeper leagues.
Honorable mention: RH Sean Gallagher, LH Mark Pawelek,
RH Jae Kuk Ryu, RH Adam Harben, WR/RHP Jeff Samardzija,
LH Ryan O'Malley,
Top hitter: OF Felix Pie, ETA mid-2007
Felix Pie (pee-ay) lost his some of his mojo in 2006 and will
have to go back to Triple-A to try to recapture it. Yes, a 21-year-old
going .283-15-57-78-17 (.451 SLUG and .351 OBP) in Triple-A is not too
shabby, but this pales in comparison to the expectations. They might
have been too high, especially when the "next Sammy Sosa" cliché was
being tossed on him. Right now the only resemblance to Sosa is his
Dominican heritage, his poor strikeout-to-walk rate (126-46) and poor
steals percentage (17-for-28). His tools still rate highly, though,
making him a solid long-term keeper prospect.
Honorable mention: 3B Scott Moore, 2B Eric Patterson,
C Jacob Fox, OF Buck Coats, OF Ryan Harvey, 1B
Brandon Sing, 1B Brian Dopirak, OF Tyler Colvin, 2B
Mike Fontenot
You have an NL West prospect on your radar and want to hear about
him next week? Pass his name on. Also, you can e-mail your Fantasy
Baseball questions to Emack at DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: NL West prospects
in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be
aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot
guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
