Pitching to be your keepers
Pretend I'm Mr. Peabody and you are Sherman, the bespectacled boy, and we're about to take a trip in time in the WABAC machine that I constructed. (For those too young to catch the reference to The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show references, pretend this is like Yu-Gi-Oh, with a time machine.)
[Flashback music]
First, let's travel back to December 10, 1971, when Archie Bunker was insulting everyone, The Doors introduced us to Riders on the Storm, and the Amazin' Mets traded Frank Estrada, Don Rose, Leroy Stanton and Nolan Ryan to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi. Up to that point, Ryan had an unspectacular 29-38 record in five seasons with New York. He then struck out more than 320 batters in each of the next three seasons with the Angels.
[Flash-forward music]
Now let's move all the way ahead to October 1, 2002, when the boy band craze was finally dying out (Emack was shattered), Spider-Man owned movie theaters and Johan Santana was finishing up his third season with the Twins as a spot starter and middle reliever. A year later, Santana would begin his metamorphosis into the Fantasy superstar that he is now, going 8-2 in the second half of 2003.
[Flash-forward music]
So you see, Sherman, just because a pitcher doesn't light the world on fire in his first few seasons, you shouldn't disregard them when selecting your keepers in the offseason -- especially when there's a change in his role (Santana) or address (Ryan).
A couple weeks ago, we spotlighted some hitters that either emerged into spotlighted some hitters his past season, making them must-keep players, or hitters that could mature into such hitters this year. The following is a similar list for hurlers, along with some young prospects, noting their ascent in Fantasyland:
Pitching some pitchers as keepers
Brandon McCarthy, SP, Chicago White Sox: I've been talking about him as an excellent Fantasy pitcher to keep for when he finally gets his opportunity, and I'm going to continue to do so until either the boy band craze returns or he gets his shot. He will end up being a strikeout-per-inning starter at some point, so make sure the 6-foot-7 right-hander is on your roster when it happens. The White Sox are still looking to move a pitcher (Freddy Garcia?), so a rotation spot should be there for B-Mac (yeah, I said it) this spring.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis: Since coming over from Atlanta a few seasons ago in the J.D. Drew trade, not much has been heard from or about Mr. Wainwright. He has had decent seasons in the minors, but it was his late-season performance with the World Series champions that raised Fantasy eyebrows everywhere. Entering 2007, the 25-year-old right-hander will either start or close, depending on the health of Jason Isringhausen's hip. Either way, that's Fantasy gold. He was drafted in the 20th round of our Earliest Mock Draft Ever, held this past October.
Ervin Santana, SP, L.A. Angels: Yeah, I know what you are saying, "Surely you can't be serious about having a 16-game winner in your keepers list?" And my answer to you would be this: "Santana is entering his third year as a starter (prime breakout potential) and has been rumored to be part of a possible Alex Rodriguez trade package to the Yankees -- and don't call me Shirley." Only three AL teams scored fewer runs than the Halos last season, and while the Angels actually provided decent support for Santana when he pitched, he would certainly benefit from that Yankees lineup protecting his leads.
Anthony Reyes, SP, St. Louis: Once again, this is another highly-discussed prospect that finally flashed glimpses of brilliance last year, mainly in the postseason when he two-hit the Tigers through eight innings in Game 1 of the World Series. This from a pitcher that wasn't even on the team's NLDS roster against San Diego. Masterful pitching coach Dave Duncan has brought him along slowly and he'll likely be unleashed for a full season in the rotation next spring. Reyes struck out nine batters in two of his final five regular season starts.
Matt Garza, SP, MIN: The much-heralded rookie right-hander went just 3-6 on the season with a 5.76 ERA in 10 major league starts after his call-up in August. But he showed promise (striking out five or more in three starts and showing excellent control, walking two or fewer in six starts) and the Twins will certainly need to lean on him this season, with Francisco Liriano out for the year after Tommy John surgery. We don't expect anything close to what Liriano did in his first full season from Garza, but he is intriguing enough to hold onto in larger mixed leagues.
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| Rich Hill had a 1.89 ERA in his last nine starts. (Getty Images) |
Jason Hirsh, SP, Houston: For those who like to gamble on young pitching, Hirsh is a solid candidate for your team. This 6-foot-8 right-handed windmill was rated the Astros' top prospect entering last season by Baseball America, and while he had some rocky starts once arriving in Houston, he showed enough promise to likely warrant a rotation spot barring a spring training collapse. He has three reliable pitches, including a superb slider, that should rack up Ks by the handful once he matures.
Adam Loewen, SP, Baltimore: Orioles pitching coach Leo Mazzone worked with the 22-year-old left-hander in spring training and now, after a year to absorb and execute the master's teachings, Loewen should begin to payoff for those that have held onto him in AL-only keeper leagues. He went 4-2 with a 4.22 ERA in his final nine starts for a bad Orioles team. He's a frontline starter waiting to happen.
Aaron Heilman, SP, N.Y. Mets Heilman isn't really considered young by Fantasy standards (he'll be 28 this month) and he's entering his fifth season in the majors. But the fact the Mets have been patient with him, moving him from the bullpen to the rotation and back again, should help him hit the ground running once he earns a rotation spot again (as early as this spring). The Mets lineup is scary and with the breakdown their pitching suffered toward the end of '06, they might be ready to gamble on the right-hander for a full season.
Joel Zumaya, RP, Detroit: Your opponents will tell you that the young right-hander (he turned 22 Thursday!) is still behind closer Todd Jones in the bullpen (one more year on his contract). And they'll tell you that he got only one save in over 83 innings of relief last year -- as they are trying to acquire the fireballer from you in trade. He threw more than twice as many 100-mph pitches (233) than the rest of the league last season, according to Baseball Info Solutions. Even if he sticks as the setup man, he can get you 100 strikeouts like Scot Shields with a sub-2.00 ERA. What's not to like about that?
Mike Gonzalez, RP, Pittsburgh: Last year was supposed to be the great coming out party for Gonzalez as the Pirates' closer, but they could only help him to 24 saves while he was healthy (through August). Elbow soreness sidelined him the last month. But the team heated up late and the left-handed closer (who was perfect in 24 opportunities) would have had the chance to add at least 12 saves to his total than his replacement, Salomon Torres, ended up getting.
Jonathan Broxton, RP, L.A. Dodgers: Once again this spring, the Dodgers could be watching Eric Gagne (elbow, back) to see if he's able to return to his role as a dominant closer. While he is a free agent, the Dodgers are expected to bring him back. If he can't go -- he had only one save in two games last year -- then Takashi Saito and Broxton are expected to battle for the role. Don't be fooled by Saito's success -- Broxton has long been considered Gagne's eventual successor. His fastball/slider combo will prove to be too much to match at some point next season.
So Sherman, those are just a few keeper possibilities for the upcoming campaign, but don't forget that, depending on your league's size and format, there are a number of rookies that could produce excellent seasons. Such as Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber of the Mets, the Yankees' Phil Hughes, Cleveland's Adam Miller, Humberto Sanchez of the Tigers, John Danks in Texas and, possibly the best of the bunch, Cincinnati's Homer Bailey.
Albert Einstein once said, "The distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion." Especially when you have a WABAC machine to help you capitalize on the future!
