It's a crazy thing that hype. It makes you do crazy things.
Like say, potentially pay $51.1 million dollars just to hold a 30-day
dialogue with the agent who drives the hardest bargain in the business,
Scott Boras. Or pick a 26-year-old rookie from Japan too early in a
Fantasy Baseball draft next spring, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who might
be trying on his new Red Sox next spring.
It's not that we don't like Matsuzaka. Anyone who throws in the high-90s
and has good offspeed pitches has to be marked "intriguing" or better in
our book.
But ...
We liked Felix Hernandez, too, going into last year. But in the
fifth round or earlier? That is where King Felix was going in some
drafts last spring. Going in, talent was being met with results, yes,
but it was the hype that was taking over.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka comes with a hefty price tag and plenty of hype.
(Getty Images)
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That will be the case with Matsuzaka, the MVP of the World Baseball
Classic who then went 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 200 strikeouts for the
Seibu Lions of Japan's Pacific League. He is just the second Japanese
player to go through the posting process, the first since
Ichiro
Suzuki.
We all know how that turned out.
But ...
Matsuzaka will already cost the Red Sox $51.1 million before they even
signed him. That is $37.6 million more than the $13.5 million Ichiro
Suzuki's Japanese team fetched in the posting process. Nearly a 279
percent markup.
What does that equate to with the return on Ichiro's rookie of the year
and MVP season in 2001? No way Daisuke wins almost three times as many
Cy Youngs, Rookie of the Years or MVPs, but hey, at least he has a
chance at a triple-crown of postseason honors.
There is a precedent for Daisuke to thrive and win rookie of the year.
He's coming over at the same age, 26, as Hideo Nomo and could be
in line for a year The Tornado posted in his debut: 13-6, 2.54 ERA, 236
strikeouts and a 1.056 WHIP.
But ...
Our early projections for Daisuke are a little more restrained:
(14-8)-3.67-171-1.209.
No, Daisuke is no Hideki Irabu, who was once solid at age 29:
(13-9)-4.06-129-1.295. And, we don't think Nomo was better than Daisuke
is. By most accounts, it's no contest.
But ...
Daisuke is going to the DH-dependent AL, to a notorious hitter's park in
the AL Beast and in an era where the ball is far more lively. Plus,
230-strikeout seasons are far more difficult to come by in this day and
age.
It's the same stuff that numbed the value of American phenom Josh
Beckett last season in his arrival in the AL and Fenway.
Coincindentally, in our early starting pitcher rankings for 2007, we
have Daisuke rated five ticks lower (18th) than Beckett, who rounds out
our current top-15 aces for 2007 on his own potential.
Yes, Daisuke is rated a top-20 Fantasy starter as a rookie next season.
That should be enough hype for all of us.
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