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David Gonos

Draft preview: Head-to-Head Strategies

This just in: there are officially more Fantasy Baseball players that use a Head-to-Head scoring system than those that use the traditional Rotisserie style.

If Daniel Okrent were dead, he'd roll over in his grave. (Okrent is credited with creating Rotisserie Baseball in 1980.)

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Despite the popularity of Rotisserie-style ball that has finally given an outlet to number-crunchers and stat-freaks alike, Fantasy Football has birthed a secondary group of Fantasy Baseball players that feel the need for weekly combat, rather than the long slow climb up 10 sets of categories. Fantasy Football owners use Head-to-Head baseball to get through the long gridiron offseason.

If you aren't already playing Head-to-Head Fantasy Baseball, then start now. It's a different game and it definitely gives you weekly gratification. If you are only a Head-to-Head player, consider adding a Rotisserie league to your profile. The six-month grind is a test of both your patience and skill.

Here are some strategies that should help you in your quest to dominate your fellow Head-to-Headers. Try to remember this: Don't draft a kicker in the last round this spring.

Using Your Head(-to-Head)

2006: Top 10 in
Quality starts
Player QS
T-1. Roy Oswalt, HOU 25
T-1. Chris Capuano, MIL 25
3. John Smoltz, ATL 24
4. Johan Santana, MIN 24
5. Mike Mussina, NYY 23
6. Bronson Arroyo, CIN 23
7. John Lackey, LAA 23
8. Brandon Webb, ARI 23
T-9. Tom Glavine, NYM 22
T-9. Kevin Millwood, TEX 22
T-9. Carlos Zambrano, CHC 22
T-9. Brett Myers, PHI 22
Obviously, there are so many variant scoring systems and point values in Head-to-Head play, it's difficult to just say, "Starting pitchers are the most valuable." Think about it. If one league scores 10 points for each win and save and no points for innings pitched or strikeouts, then it would be safe to say that the top relievers would be more valuable. So consider your scoring system and apply the following strategies accordingly. Take a look at our projections in your league, which would show how many Head-to-Head points your scoring system would reward each player. This would give you an excellent idea of what types of players your system values more.

Here are some questions you'll want to review before entering your Head-to-Head draft:

  • Are relief pitchers and starting pitchers separate in your starting lineups? If so, then remember that a starting pitcher that has relief pitcher eligibility, with two starts in a given week, is quite valuable (Jonathan Papelbon for instance).
  • Does your scoring system subtract points for strikeouts by a hitter? If so, then ratchet back the rankings of players like Adam Dunn and Curtis Granderson. While they can provide points in other areas, those positives would be partially offset by the negatives.
  • And do they reward the same amount of points for walks by a hitter? If so, then move Dunn back up the rankings, since he landed in the top six in walks for the third straight year in '06. And move a player like Brian Giles up your cheatsheets because of his stellar 1.73 BB/K ratio.
  • Do you lose points if your baserunner is caught stealing? If so, let someone else take a chance on someone like Scott Podsednik late in your draft. Last year, he had only 21 net steals (40 SB - 19 CS), which ranks him even lower than Eric Byrnes (22), Orlando Cabrera (24) and Willy Taveras (24).
2006: Top 10 in
Net Steals
Player QS
1. Carl Crawford, TB 49
2. Jose Reyes, NYM 47
T-3. Dave Roberts, SF 43
T-3. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA 43
5. Juan Pierre, LAD 38
T-6. Chone Figgins, LAA 36
T-6. Hanley Ramirez, FLA 34
T-8. Felipe Lopez, WAS 32
T-8. Jimmy Rollins, PHI 32
T-10. Brian Roberts, BAL 29
T-10. Derek Jeter, NYY 29
  • Do you lose points for losses by your pitcher? If that is the case, then starting pitchers lose some of their luster compared to solid closers. That also makes good pitchers on bad teams less desirable. Run support provided by a pitcher's offense is usually a good indicator, although Randy Johnson led the majors with 7.51 runs scored in support with the Yankees last year, and he still lost 11 games. Can that improve now that he's with Arizona, a team that scored 157 fewer runs than the Yankees in '06?
  • Do you lose points for both losses and blown saves? If so, avoid the shakier closers altogether because of double jeopardy. In deeper leagues, grab a quality middle reliever late that picks up strikeouts (Scot Shields) or some wins in relief.

Pitching an idea

The key to Head-to-Head pitching is usually grabbing as many high-win, high-strikeout pitchers as you can and mix them with some decent pitchers with two-starts against favorable matchups. If you are in an AL-only or NL-only league, the odds of picking up decent two-start pitchers off the waiver wire each week are much slimmer than if you are in a mixed league. So in those deeper leagues, try to stock up on starting pitchers to keep on your bench for two-start weeks. They'll serve you better than a backup outfielder or second baseman.

No major league pitcher had more quality starts in '06 than Chris Capuano's 25. (Getty Images)  
No major league pitcher had more quality starts in '06 than Chris Capuano's 25. (Getty Images)  
Also, try to lean toward consistent pitchers, even if they aren't the type to strike out 10 or toss a complete game. You'd rather have a player like Chris Capuano, who co-led the majors with 25 quality starts last season, over someone like Cliff Lee, who is streakier than a nudist colony.

It's also important to understand that last season's rookie pitcher explosion won't happen this year. Young pitchers are rarely consistent from one month to the next. So if you take some rookie starters that thrive early in the season, consider trading them immediately while they're hot, before they face opponents for the second time.

Obviously, you'll want to wait on some low-strikeout pitchers, but if your league also deducts for hits allowed, then avoid pitchers that combine both blemishes. Mark Buehrle is obviously coming off a bad season, but realize that he has averaged 246 hits allowed and only 133 strikeouts over the past five seasons. Those are tough numbers to overcome. On the other hand, look at Buehrle's teammate Javier Vazquez, who has averaged 206 hits allowed and 192 strikeouts over the past four seasons.

Power is king

Pssssstt ... Pssssstt ... Hey! ... Pick up home run hitters in Head-to-Head Fantasy play!

2006: Top 10 in
Extra-base hits
Player QS
1. Grady Sizemore, CLE 92
2. Alfonso Soriano, CHC 89
3. David Ortiz, BOS 85
T-4. Matt Holliday, COL 84
T-4. Ryan Howard, PHI 84
6. Albert Pujols, STL 83
T-7. Aramis Ramirez, CHC 80
T-7. Carlos Beltran, NYM 80
T-9. Jimmy Rollins, PHI 79
T-9. Mark Teixeira, TEX 79
Here are some other obvious tips: Never scare an ex-con while he's working with a chainsaw. Avoid any movie that starts with "Ernest Goes To..." And never guzzle hot coffee through a straw.

Of the top 10 Head-to-Head Fantasy hitters in a basic scoring system, six hit 40 or more home runs in '06. Combine that with the RBI and run-scoring opportunities they get because of their own power, and you now understand why hoarding power is a good thing. But again, check their strikeout numbers if you lose points there.

Something else to consider isn't just the long-ball hitters, but all those players that rack up doubles and extra-base hits. Take a look at the leaders in hits and you'll see some interesting items. For instance, Magglio Ordoñez might have been in the top 30 in hits last year, but he had only 57 extra-base hits, which ranked him 75th in the majors. Jose Lopez was in the top 50 in hits, but with only 46 extra-bases and five stolen bases, he's not someone to target until late in most drafts -- and that's only because second base is so thin.

The need for speed

2006: Top 10 in
At-bats
Player QS
1. Juan Pierre, LAD 699
2. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA 695
3. Michael Young, TEX 691
4. Jimmy Rollins, PHI 689
5. Chase Utley, PHI 658
6. Grady Sizemore, CLE 655
7. Rafael Furcal, LAD 654
8. Jeff Francoeur, ATL 651
9. Miguel Tejada, BAL 648
T-10. Alfonso Soriano, CHC 647
T-10. Jose Reyes, NYM 647
Instead of concerning yourself with players that steal a lot of bases, try to concentrate your attention on good leadoff hitters. Stolen bases are just too inconsistent to rely on in a weekly scoring format. But a leadoff hitter's exceptional on-base percentage will convert to Fantasy points and they'll likely steal some bases as a Fantasy bonus. The fact that they'll reach the plate once more than most of the other hitters on their team means they have around a 20-percent chance of doing more for you than someone hitting seventh in the order.

And just because power hitting is king, don't discount what a solid speedster can do for you. Consider that a home run is worth at least six points (HR (4) + RBI (1) + run scored (1). A triple might be worth only three points, but factor in that the top 10 triple hitters also averaged over 37 stolen bases and 91 runs scored and you realize that you don't have to avoid speedsters just because they can't go four bases on one hit.

There is certainly a place for Head-to-Head Fantasy leaguers at CBS SportsLine. The strategies might be a little different than Rotisserie, but for the most part, talented hitters and solid pitchers can help you in all formats. But, just like any Fantasy game, learning the nuances of your league's scoring could mean the difference of being a champ or a chump.

Have a question for the Fantasy Baseball writers? How about a comment or a suggestion? Feel free to email us at DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Please add "Attn: Head-to-Head" so we know which column you are referring to. We might not be able to answer all questions due to a large volume, but we’ll do our best.

 
 
 
Player News
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens still trade candidate
Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL
11:57 AM
News: CBSSports.com senior writer Danny Knobler reports sources said the Braves could try and trade SP Jair Jurrjens if he proves healthy in spring training. The Braves tried to trade Jurrjens this winter, but they couldn't find a taker because potential trade partners weren't convinced Jurrjens was healthy or could stay healthy. Jurrjens missed the end of the 2011 season with a knee injury and has made just 43 starts the last two seasons.
Analysis: When Jurrjens is healthy, then he is one of the best pitchers in the majors. His 1.87 ERA in the first half last season was second to only Jered Weaver among major-league starters. Jurrjens has won 13-plus games in three of the last four seasons. So why would the Braves want to trade him? Well, Jurrjens is a free agent after the 2013 season and it appears Atlanta is ready to clear some rotation space for the likes of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Jurrjens this spring. There appears to be a chance he might not finish the spring with Atlanta, which could mean Jurrjens slides down draft boards in NL-only formats that lose players who are traded to the AL. In mixed leagues, Jurrjens is still a decent mid-round Fantasy pick.

A.J. Burnett
Angels interested in Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
11:40 AM
News: FOXSports.com reports sources indicate the Angels are interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, whose name has been heavily mentioned in trade rumors with the Pirates. However, the Angels are on Burnett's no-trade list and he wants to stay east. Pittsburgh is still considered the heavy favorite to potentially land Burnett.
Analysis: Right now the hold up in the Pirates trade is how much money Pittsburgh will be willing to pay of Burnett's remaining salary over the next two years ($33 million) and the prospects the Pirates would send to the Yankees. Perhaps this rumor regarding the Angels might speed up the process, but other sources have said the Yankees would keep Burnett if the deal isn't right for them. The Angels could afford to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees, who are looking for DH. But this point is moot until Burnett agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Wherever Burnett pitches in 2012, he is going to be a late-round Fantasy pick coming off a turbulent 2011 campaign.

Coco Crisp
Crisp moving over for Cespedes?
Coco Crisp, CF, OAK
10:13 AM
News: Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Athletics intend to start newly signed Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes in center field right away, which would move Coco Crisp over to left field and Seth Smith to DH. Cespedes is already 26 and has faced upper-level competition in Cuba, but some scouts think he could use some time in the minors to adjust to the U.S. game.
Analysis: None of these reports are coming directly from the Athletics, so you should consider them nothing more than speculation at this point. Still, speculation is better than nothing, and if Cespedes is in fact going to be on the opening day roster, then he might even be worth drafting in the middle rounds, given his upside. As for Crisp, moving to left field wouldn't have any real impact on his Fantasy value. The Athletics outfield is even more crowded with the Cespedes signing, but the team seems to consider Crisp a mainstay at the top of the lineup. Given his base-stealing ability and doubles pop, he's a worthy fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Ryan Braun
Braun will know fate by Feb. 24
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
10:03 AM
News: Monday came and went without a ruling on Brewers OF Ryan Braun's pending 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It was the 25th day since the three-man panel heard Braun's appeal. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the panel was supposed to “make all reasonable efforts” to deliver a verdict within that period of time, but chairman Shyam Das was given an extension. A decision is expected before Braun reports to spring training on Feb. 24, but the exact date is unknown since the process is intended to be confidential.
Analysis: The panel's need for a lengthy deliberation is theoretically a good sign, but then again, since the process is usually confidential, we don't know how common such extensions are. Braun's case is said to be unique, but it might not make much of a difference to the panel. If you're drafting now, you should do so with the expectation that Braun will miss the first 50 games of the season, which could allow him to slip to the middle rounds in standard mixed leagues. If the appeal is upheld, though, he's suddenly back to being a first-rounder in Fantasy.

Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin fires back at GM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL
12:07 PM
News: The Denver Post reports Rockies SP Jhoulys Chacin responded to comments made by GM Dan O'Dowd, who expressed concern recently about Chacin's offseason conditioning. "I came to Arizona this past Monday. I have not stopped training during the winter, both in my country and here," Chacin told Venezuelan newspaper Meridiano. "I have always done the best job I could all throughout these past few months. I don't know where these comments came from. I believe they're the result of what other people have told him, instead of his own personal evaluation. I am looking forward to meeting O'Dowd personally, and I am confident that he will have a different conclusion after a firsthand evaluation." O'Dowd made his comments after seeing Chacin at the team's Fanfest in January. "He looked OK. It wasn't as bad as I anticipated," O'Dowd said. "It's still not what it should be."
Analysis: O'Dowd believes Chacin needs to lose weight because the excess pounds affect the balance in his delivery and cause his fastball command to suffer. Chacin spent much of the winter working out in his native Venezuela after working out in Tucson previously. On Feb. 9, Chacin reportedly weighed 226 pounds but anticipates being close to the 218 pounds he was last spring when he reports to spring training on Feb. 19. Chacin went 8-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts last year and went 3-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts after the break. Chacin struggled with walks in the second half and was much more hittable down the stretch than he was early in the season. This situation is clearly not the way Fantasy owners want to see Chacin kick off the 2012 season, but perhaps this will provide him with the motivation he needs to reach elite status. Look to Chacin as a mid-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome lands on South Side
Kosuke Fukudome, RF, CLE
11:46 AM
News: Kosuke Fukudome is headed back to the Windy City, but this time he is going to call the South Side home. Fukudome agreed to a one-year, $1 million contract with the White Sox on Tuesday. The deal also included a club option for the 2013 season.
Analysis: Fukudome played for the Cubs from 2008 to the trade deadline last season when he was shipped to Cleveland. He had his most disappointing campaign in the majors in 2011, which is why he probably stayed on the free-agent market longer than expected. The White Sox are expected to open 2012 with an outfield alignment of Alex Rios in center, Dayan Viciedo in right field and Alejandro De Aza in left field. Brent Lillibridge is considered a backup at all three outfield positions and now Fukudome joins the mix as another outfield body. However, since he likely won't begin the season as a starter, then Fukudome can be left undrafted in most Fantasy formats. Consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy reserve.

Jose Veras
Veras loses arbitration case
Jose Veras, RP, MIL
12:01 PM
News: CBSSports.com baseball insider Jon Heyman reports Brewers RP Jose Veras lost his arbitration case. He will make $2 million in 2012 instead of the $2.375 million he sought in arbitration.
Analysis: Veras arrived in Milwaukee in December as part of the Casey McGehee trade with the Pirates. Veras went 2-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings for Pittsburgh last season. He won't be a closer with the Brewers and will work in middle relief. Veras is merely a low-end Fantasy RP.

Dillon Gee
Gee prepping for the long haul
Dillon Gee, SP, NYM
11:33 AM
News: Newsday reports Mets SP Dillon Gee is focusing on finishing out the 2012 season after he struggled in the second half in 2011. Gee admitted fatigue played a part in his ERA rising to 5.25 after the All-Star break. He had a 3.76 ERA in the first half. "As the months went on, my stuff just got kind of bland," Gee said. "I feel that comes from fatigue. As soon as your legs get tired, you start overcompensating one way or the other, maybe relaxing a little bit. That throws off your release point, and in the end, the movement on your pitches. Earlier in the year, when I was fresh, you could see a big difference in the video that I watched."
Analysis: Gee said he is looking "for nothing but improvement" in 2012. He clearly has figured out what his biggest hurdle is to make sure he has a successful campaign. "I've had bouts of inconsistency where I jumped a level because it's a different thing you never experienced," Gee said. "My first full year in the big leagues was a long season for me. I wasn't used to that. It's only a month longer than minor leagues, but mentally, it's challenging. Every start, you have to focus so much harder, and that drains you. So I think learning how to deal with that and knowing what to expect this next year." Gee finished 2011 with 13 wins, but it could be a little tougher for victories this season as the Mets aren't the same star-filled team they used to be. Gee is merely a late-round Fantasy flier.

Josh Beckett
Beckett throws with skipper watching
Josh Beckett, SP, BOS
11:26 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox SP Josh Beckett threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session Tuesday as new manager Bobby Valentine watched.
Analysis: After a disastrous 2010, Beckett stayed healthy for the most part in 2011 and was able to get back on track. He made 30 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA. He also had a 13-7 record and 1.03 WHIP. Beckett has had less than 10 wins in just one of his last seven seasons. The biggest risk with drafting Beckett is durability. But if he is healthy, then he can post big numbers. Look to Beckett in the early rounds on Draft Day.

Kelvin De La Cruz
Indians DFA pitcher Cruz
Kelvin De La Cruz, SP, CLE
11:20 AM
News: The Indians designated for assignment pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz on Tuesday.
Analysis: Cruz has yet to make his MLB debut, but he is 32-28 with a 4.21 ERA in six minor-league seasons. He is merely organizational depth and can be ignored in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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